A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Damien Williams, Kansas City
Phil Alexander: The list of running backs we can safely project for both double-digit carries and four-to-six catches per game includes seven names. Six are no-brainer first-round picks Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon III, and David Johnson. The other is Williams, who plays in a more fertile offense than all of them. Even if you only project him at a modest 10-12 carries per game, Williams’ pass-catching ability and touchdown potential make him a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues. But Williams' size/speed profile indicates he can thrive in a bell-cow role. If the Chiefs commit to him for 20 touches per game, a top-5 finish is more likely than not.
Drew Davenport: When Williams took over the duties as the lead back last year he was sensational. In three games prior to the Week 17 finale, Williams recorded 5 touchdowns, 17 receptions, and 74.3 fantasy points. While the narrative against Williams being able to handle a feature back role continues to get replayed, the Chiefs showed confidence in him by not bringing in any major competition and anointing him the unquestioned starter. Even if he is only getting 15 touches a game, he's in an extremely potent offense with a Head Coach who excels at the screen game. His ADP is steep, but he has elite potential.
Will Grant: Williams came on strong at the end of last season replacing Kareem Hunt for the Chiefs and posted some impressive totals over the final four games of the season (almost 350 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns). But for some reason, the addition of Carlos Hyde and Darwin Thompson has fantasy owners hesitating to pull the trigger on Williams. At his current ADP, you can acquire a running back with legitimate top-10 fantasy potential well after all of the second-tier running backs are off the board.
Clayton Gray: A year ago, people were a little unsure of whether the Kansas City offense would sputter with Patrick Mahomes II under center. But Kareem Hunt was a first-round pick in most drafts. This year, no one is worried about this offense. But Williams is falling deep into the second round and sometimes can be had in the third. The coaching staff is fully behind Williams, so there's no real reason to think he won't post round-one type numbers.
Jeff Haseley: The Chiefs did not spend a high draft pick on a running back, which leads to the belief that they will utilize Damien Williams as their top back in 2019. Spencer Ware is out of the picture, Carlos Hyde isn't the receiver that Williams is, and rookies Darwin Thompson and James Williams will take some time to develop. The winner heading into 2019 is Williams, who could finish with a Top 12 season. Under Andy Reid, a Kansas City running back has finished inside the Top 20 in PPR scoring six of seven years. Williams is next in line on arguably the best offense Reid has ever had.
Dan Hindery: The Chiefs total of 66 offensive touchdowns last season (25 scored by running backs) was the highest since 2013. Even if you play it conservative and price in a full touchdown per game regression (from 4.1 to 3.1), the Chiefs project for 50 in 2019. The lead back in this offense is going to score touchdowns in bunches. The coaching staff is saying Williams is the guy; he certainly played that role down the stretch, including logging 77% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. By comparison, Kareem Hunt only played that many snaps 3 times in his 11 games. In Williams’ six games as the starter (playoffs included), he averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game, which is more than any of the backs going in the top-4 overall have ever scored in a season. If the preseason usage of Williams aligns with the rhetoric, he belongs in the first round of fantasy drafts.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Latavius Murray, New Orleans
James Brimacombe: It is hard to get a read on Murray in New Orleans but at the current ADP, he is well worth the price as the Saints have shown us that they are fully committed to the run game. The Saints of been a two RB team for the past couple of years with both Kamara and Ingram putting up big numbers so it is easy to just slot Murray right into that same Ingram role and he will have some massive upside if anything was to happen to Kamara.
Drew Davenport: Sean Payton has turned New Orleans into a team that wants to run the football. They started out the first month of 2018 struggling mightily on defense, but when that turned around the Saints offense morphed into what they'll look like if they have their choice. Murray was signed to replace Mark Ingram and has arguably better chops near the goal line. It's a solid bet that as the back that the Saints want to use to run the ball when they have lead and to put the ball into the end zone, he is an easy pick to outperform his ADP.
Ryan Hester: With Alvin Kamara present, it’s easy to assume that Murray will be relegated to pure backup duties. But New Orleans has committed to using two backs throughout Sean Payton’s tenure there. Mark Ingram averaged 185 carries and 44 receptions over the past four seasons, and that includes two 12-game seasons. Murray has shown the ability to be productive on limited touches – especially where it counts. Over the last four seasons, only Todd Gurley (46) has more rushing touchdowns than Murray (32). Coincidentally, Ingram is fifth on that list (30). Murray has standalone value in any given week as an efficient player with touchdown equity. And if Kamara ever missed time, Murray would project at or near an RB1 in any given week.
Chad Parsons: Murray moves from one strong landing spot (Minnesota behind oft-injured Dalvin Cook) to another in New Orleans where he assumes the Mark Ingram role. Murray is a flex option every week even without an Alvin Kamara injury but has top-5 upside if Kamara were to miss time. Murray will be a touchdown vulture at a minimum and with 10+ carry upside most weeks. Murray is aggressively priced if a pure handcuff, but possesses more weekly utility and offers lineup flexibility even as a floor.
Jeff Pasquino: Murray is going to be a steal for those lucky enough to understand his likely role in New Orleans. Murray has a strong history of scoring touchdowns from short yardage, scoring 19 of his 26 touchdowns from 2015-2017 from inside the 5-yard line. Murray had fewer chances last year (only two short-yardage scores) as the Vikings struggled in goal-line situations (Murray had only seven attempts, Dalvin Cook just three). As recently as 2017, the Saints had two Top 8 running backs in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, with Ingram scoring eight touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line on 16 carries that season. Ingram is now in Baltimore, and Murray appears to be poised to step into Ingram’s former role, and not only has feature back upside if Kamara misses any action but also offers RB2 value on his own with a big role in a high-octane Saints offense.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Kenyan Drake, Miami
Dwain McFarland: Drake is on a terrible team but is likely to see plenty of touches even if Ballage is a threat to take early-down work. The Dolphins will trail somewhere around 60% of snaps. Drake will be on the field a lot and a falling ADP makes him an even stronger value. New offensive coordinator, Chad O’Shea, is bringing the New England style offense to South Beach. Under Josh McDaniel’s tutelage for the past four years, he got to absorb how to best utilize running backs in the passing game (32%, 31%, 24%, and 25% of team receptions). Given the current depth chart, it is possible Drake finds himself as high as two or three in the pass target pecking order. He is a solid route runner who has excelled with routes beyond the line of scrimmage – a forte of the Patriots attack.
Chad Parsons: Miami may stink in 2019 and be the favorite for the No.1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. However, Drake is the clear lead back with receiving acumen for a team likely to trail in a bunch (most?) games. Drake was an RB2 type in PPR formats last year despite Frank Gore seeing much of the interior and early-game work. Drake has a golden opportunity to be the lead back with less depth chart competition (only Kalen Ballage is a threat) than he had even back in Alabama.
Matt Waldman: Look for a significant climb in usage now that Adam Gase has departed for the Jets and Frank Gore for the Bills. Kalen Ballage will earn more time, Drake has improved his understanding of blocking schemes to the point that he should earn the lead role and volume commensurate with top-15 production. However, camp writers are noting that the team believes Ballage has improved to the point of challenging for the primary role as the ball carrier. Consider this a split situation with Drake leading the backfield in receiving but Ballage out-pointing Drake with touches as a runner. Don't be surprised if Drake overtakes Ballage as the all-around option if Ballage's preseason reps with the first-team are only an attempt to build confidence and the same issues Ballage showed last year on tape haven't changed.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis
James Brimacombe: The Colts offense continues to evolve in both the passing and running game and that will only continue to help Mack's potential entering into his third season. In 2018 he had a breakout season playing in just 12 games but delivering 1,011 total yards and 10 total touchdowns. The Colts showed trust and loyalty this offseason in Mack as they only added Spencer Ware to the backfield to go along with Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines as the depth behind him. At his current ADP, you could be getting a steal as Mack has potential to be a top tier RB by seasons end.
Will Grant: I admit that I missed the boat last year, thinking that Nyheim Hines or Jordan Wilkins would emerge as the fantasy back to have from Indianapolis. Yet Marlon Mack came on strong after a slow start, posting 90+ yards from scrimmage in six of his last 11 games. He also had three games with two touchdowns and ten touchdowns total over that stretch. This season he’ll (hopefully) play a full 16 games, and even if Hines, Wilkins or Spencer Ware cut into Mack’s touches per game, look for Mack to have a solid season and outperform his current ADP.
Maurile Tremblay: Mack was slowed by injuries during his first two seasons, but when he's been healthy, he's performed quite well. He is effective in short-yardage situations and makes yards after contact, and can also get outside, turn the corner, and make defenders miss in the open field. Mack also benefits from solid run-blocking behind a line led by guards Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski. Much more effective than Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins last season, Mack should carry the Colts' running game in 2019.
Lamar Miller, Houston
James Brimacombe: The Texans have invested in Miller once again this season as the only true depth behind him is D'Onta Foreman who has had a young career plagued with injuries. The thing you get with Miller is the volume at a very cheap ADP right now. The big breakout has yet to come for Miller but the team continues to give him the benefit of the doubt believing that he can be their guy at the running back position. Miller quietly finished as the RB22 last season while missing a pair of games.
Drew Davenport: Miller isn't exciting. Miller doesn't have the upside of some guys being selected near him in ADP. But what he brings to the table is consistency and a lack of a real challenger. D'Onta Foreman is the closest thing to a threat and it remains to be seen if he can come back from his Achilles injury. The Texans didn't do much to address their backfield, and they lost sometimes-vulture Alfred Blue as well. For teams that go tight end early, or load up on top wide receivers, Miller is the perfect fit as a second running back that will see plenty of volume for a good offense. His ADP continues to lag well behind his value.
Ryan Hester: Miller is the Rodney Dangerfield of running backs with the lack of respect he’s seeing from the fantasy market. Much like Dangerfield’s character in Caddyshack, Al Czervik, Miller won’t be winning the NFL equivalent of an Oscar any time soon. But he is a serviceable part of an excellent cast of characters. Houston’s offense is always fast-paced under Bill O’Brien, has a dynamic quarterback who can sustain drives with his arms and his legs, and has a great wide receivers group. That should all add up to plenty of chances to rack up yards and finish drives. Many seem worried about D’Onta Foreman, but there is room for both Miller and Foreman to exceed their prices. And if Foreman is unable to emerge, Miller could finish as a high-end RB2.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
DOnta Foreman, Houston
Justin Howe: I jumped early at Foreman last year. Lamar Miller remained unimpressive, but Foreman just wasn’t ready to (seriously) return from his Achilles rupture and claim the lead role. Miller hasn’t gone anywhere – he’s on the last year of his affordable deal – but Foreman could force Bill O’Brien’s hand. He’s just 23 and reportedly as healthy as ever, and less than 3 years removed from a 2,028-yard college season. There’s a decent chance he relegates Miller to passing downs and takes over the early-down bulk. He deserves an ADP discount, as he’s yet to prove anything on this level, but remains a bit too cheap of a flier.
Jason Wood: As a Foreman critic last year, I’ve done a 180-degree turn entering the 2019 season. The Texans made no moves in the offseason to bolster a running back corps led by the unexciting but reliable Lamar Miller. Although Miller is slated to start again, Foreman is the far more exciting prospect. A promising college resume was derailed by a torn Achilles, which understandably limited Foreman’s first two NFL seasons. It’s been a year and a half since the injury, and Foreman is passing every test imaginable. He was the star of OTAs, and if he enters training camp as a full participant, it’s time to start projecting Foreman as 1b to Miller’s 1a. The great news is if Foreman is healthy and gets 40%-50% of the touches in the early season, he’s got the talent to displace Miller as the lead running back by October.
Royce Freeman, Denver
Daniel Simpkins: Phillip Lindsey was sidelined for the entire offseason, and Freeman was impressing the new coaching staff. The blocking scheme should be better for the second-year runner, who also dealt with a dreaded high ankle sprain in his rookie year. In terms of production, it’s easy to tell a story in which Freeman and Lindsey swap their primary and ancillary roles this year.
Jason Wood: Fantasy managers are a fickle bunch, and Phillip Lindsay’s come-from-nowhere rookie year combined with Freeman’s disappointing campaign has everyone assuming 2019 will be a carbon copy. It won’t. Lindsay was fantastic, but I still think he’s not built for a sustainably heavy workload. He’s also missed all offseason activities with a wrist injury. Meanwhile, Freeman is back 100% after dealing with a high ankle sprain last year. He’s looked like the powerful, decisive back we all thought he was coming out of Oregon. With a new (better) blocking scheme in place, expect Freeman to demand at least half the workload, but don’t be surprised if he’s the bell cow this year and Lindsay slots back into a change-of-pace role he’s best suited for.
Damien Harris, New England
Phil Alexander: Harris is the type of lunchpail running back who can play the LeGarrette Blount role for New England much better than Blount ever did. The player who held that job last season -- Sony Michel -- just had his second knee surgery since last summer. No one would be shocked if Harris is making starts at some point in 2019, and the early-down/goal-line role for the Patriots has historically been the catbird seat for running back fantasy production. It's tough to remember the last time investing in the cheapest piece of New England's backfield turned out a poor decision and the context is there for Harris to continue the trend.
Clayton Gray: It's possible to be onboard with Sony Michel and still think Damien Harris is underrated. The reason is simple: After you get two or maybe three solid backs, Harris is the type of running back you should want to roster. If things work out, he's a potential league-winner. If Michel can't go, Harris would be a workhorse. Acquire as many of those players as possible.
Darrell Henderson, LA Rams
Jeff Haseley: The Rams have mentioned that they think Darrell Henderson can be their version of Alvin Kamara. If that's the case, and Henderson thrives, he'll have value regardless of Todd Gurley's uncertain status throughout the season. They didn't trade two third-round picks to move up in the third round not to play their next new weapon on offense. Henderson is going to make waves in year one and it won't matter how Todd Gurley performs.
Matt Waldman: When it came to the selection of Henderson, Sean McVay invoked Alvin Kamara’s role during his post-draft interviews. The Rams’ concerns about Todd Gurley’s knees, the similarities between McVay’s and Sean Payton’s offenses, and McVay’s desire to add another component into the offense that makes the scheme more difficult to foil, supports the idea that Henderson will be an immediate contributor for Los Angeles. Like Kamara, Henderson is a breakaway runner with good hands. Although skeptics point to the re-signing of Malcolm Brown as evidence that Henderson won’t be an immediate factor, Brown is backing up Gurley’s role whereas Henderson will be used in two-backfield sets and split as a receiver. Much like the tandems of Kamara-Mark Ingram and Tariq Cohen-Jordan Howard, there will be enough touches for Gurley and Kamara to thrive as fantasy starters in this scheme. It makes Henderson a rookie bargain with solid fantasy RB2 value.
Jordan Howard, Philadelphia
Devin Knotts: Miles Sanders is the hot name in fantasy this season as he is a Penn State rookie one year after Saquon Barkley. There is a lot to like about the future potential in Sanders, but there are some issues. Sanders has missed most of the offseason with a hamstring injury, has a history of fumbling issues at Penn State and is still raw in terms of game experience as he started just one season at Penn State. Howard is a north-south running back who is going to be the beneficiary of one of the biggest offensive line upgrades this season as he is going from a situation last year in Chicago where he was running behind one of the worst offensive lines to running behind the best offensive line in football this season.
Matt Waldman: Howard earned RB18 production last year in a committee with Tariq Cohen—including a stretch run where he was the No.11 fantasy runner after Week 12. He’s an excellent inside runner who earns more big-play runs than many realize and he’s one of the league’s best pass protectors at the position. Although known for his drops, Howard still displays competence with check-down targets near the line of scrimmage. A tough, physical runner who produces even when playing hurt, Howard has a strong track record of ball security. Teammate Miles Sanders has garnered more excitement in the fantasy community but the rookie is less mature of a decision-maker, still developing as a pass protector, and his college career fumble rate is atrocious. Sanders’ current draft value is based on excitement over his athletic ability. Howard is the superior player this year and working in an even stronger offense.
Carlos Hyde, Kansas City
Chad Parsons: I am one of the few firm believers still in Hyde's talent and potential as NFL lead back. It was a shoulder shrug reaction by much of the fantasy community when Hyde landed with the Chiefs, signaling their reaffirmed belief in Damien Williams. However, Williams' career profile as anything but a depth back is spotty at best. While Williams' rise from the ashes to win fantasy titles lain 2018 is admirable, I question his ability to remain healthy or hold off Hyde for at least early-down and goal-line work for the entire season. Hyde is one of the highest upside bets down the running back rankings with high RB1 potential if the unquestioned lead option for the Chiefs for a stretch of the season, or more.
Jeff Pasquino: With no Kareem Hunt entering this season, Damien Williams appears to be the next man up, but Andy Reid has a history of using several backs in a committee approach if it suits his offensive needs. Carlos Hyde offers a very cheap option to get a piece of a high-powered Kansas City offense, and Hyde can easily carve out third- and passing-down roles over Williams. Looking back at his most recent seasons as a feature lead back in San Francisco (2016, 2017), Hyde scored 17 touchdowns total for those two years while breaking 900 yards rushing each season. His 59 catches in 2017 highlight the added dimension Hyde offers for Kansas City’s offense, including lining up on the field with Williams in some formations. Hyde has value even with a split role for the Chiefs, and he certainly offers even more if he wins the top spot in training camp.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota
Dwain McFarland: Mattison is a great player to target in the later rounds because he has multiple paths to value. He could be utilized to keep Dalvin Cook fresh as the change of pace back. In Gary Kubiak’s famous running scheme that could prove to be flex-worthy sooner rather than later. Latavius Murray’s season pace in games with Dalvin Cook last season was 110 attempts. Unlike Murray, Mattison is a functional option in the passing game, which could widen his range of application. If Cook goes down with injury again, he could be a league-winning type of back down the stretch as a functional player who is maximized by the scheme.
Jason Wood: I’m struggling to understand the dichotomy between Minnesota and Los Angeles. Everyone seems fine with Dalvin Cook as a top-10 pick in spite of an inability to stay on the field, in college or the pros. Aside from his ACL tear, he’s had three shoulder surgeries already. Yet, no one seems comfortable drafting Todd Gurley because of an arthritic knee condition, even though Gurley was an elite fantasy back in 2017 and 2018, and both he and the team insist he’ll be fine for training camp. Handcuffing only works if you’re sure you have the right backup and you get them at a value. In LA, people are drafting Henderson in the 6th round even though Malcolm Brown has as good a claim to Gurley’s job. Save yourself the headache and draft Mattison in the late rounds. He’s Cook’s clear handcuff and can handle an every-down workload.
James White, New England
Jeff Haseley: James White had 87 receptions in 2018 and Julian Edelman had 74 in 12 games. New England is vacating 143 receptions with the departures of Rob Gronkowski, Josh Gordon (maybe), Chris Hogan, and Cordarrelle Patterson. White and Edelman figure to be trusted and reliable cornerstones in the Patriots offense and could reach upwards of 90 receptions each, especially if N'Keal Harry takes some time to develop.
Andy Hicks: James White had a career year in 2018 with 87 receptions, almost 1200 combined yards and a dozen touchdowns. With Sony Michel entering a second season and the Patriots drafting Damien Harris, there has to be legitimate concern about James White. One thing is clear though, in New England, a proven veteran will be used ahead of a younger player who may make mistakes and White has proven his reliability and toughness for years. After finishing 2018 as an RB1 in PPR leagues, even with a slight dip in production he still easily outproduces his draft slot.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay
Devin Knotts: There is not much to get excited about when scrolling over your draft list and seeing the name Peyton Barber, but this is all about opportunity. Bruce Arians brings in a new perspective that should increase the entire outlook of the Buccaneers offense and is one that has produced results in the past with David Johnson having his best seasons with Arians. Ronald Jones is going to get a lot of the hype, due to just being 22 years old at the start of the season and a former second-round pick. However, Jones is still a very raw player who has been a liability in the passing game. At the price to pay for Barber, it is a speculative price, but Barber is in line for one of the best opportunities to become a consistent starter this season.
Matt Breida, San Francisco
Justin Howe: Breida is tumbling way too far down draft boards. The 49ers have a deep backfield for sure, but Kyle Shanahan has long been capable of orchestrating offenses with two usable backs. Tevin Coleman is locked (lightly) into a role, but Breida could match or even exceed his output. Last year, fighting through a nagging ankle injury that limited him down the stretch, he managed 1,075 scrimmage yards over 10 full games and just chunks of 4 others. His 6.0 yards per touch landed ninth among qualifying backs, and he wound up as the per-game RB28. Breida’s competition isn’t as stiff as it seems, either: Jerick McKinnon hasn’t been productive on the ground since 2014 and is working back from ACL surgery. Based on last year’s efficiency, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Breida top this backfield in fantasy production.
Chris Carson, Seattle
Ryan Hester: No team ran the ball more often than Seattle last season, and Carson spearheaded that attack – particularly late in the season. This year, second-year player Rashaad Penny should emerge and get a larger piece of the pie. But Mike Davis is no longer with the team, meaning Carson’s role could remain the same or even increase with Penny’s. Carson isn’t a pass-catching back, but he did show an ability to make plays in the passing game with 20 receptions for 163 yards last year. C.J. Prosise and J.D. McKissic are still in the fold to help with the passing game, but neither offers the versatility that Carson does. Carson is the team’s most effective back when it comes to not telegraphing play calls with personnel. If he does earn the lion’s share of Seattle’s work, an RB2 finish is likely, making him a value.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta
Dwain McFarland: Freeman should be a strategic part of many draft plans this summer. Yes, he has injury concerns, but given the upside in volume available with Tevin Coleman departing for San Francisco, he is worth his ADP. His median projection puts him at a mid to late second-round draft value. New offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, has a strong history of utilizing running backs in the passing game before his time in Tampa when he didn’t have the talent to do it. Getting Freeman at his current ADP is too much of a discount given his upside to crack RB1 status as the lead rushing and receiving back for a potent offense.
Todd Gurley, LA Rams
Daniel Simpkins: The hate has gone too far. A diminished workload will still leave a runner who will carry and catch the ball over 20 times a game on one of the best offenses in the NFL. At worst, Gurley will finish among the top six at running back, and he’s being drafted well outside that range currently.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee
Phil Alexander: The Titans offense is going to run through Henry from the start this season, but his current ADP suggests fantasy gamers are still worried about a possible timeshare with Dion Lewis. Once Tennessee began riding Henry in Week 14 last year, Lewis became an afterthought. In what amounted to a playoff game against the Colts in Week 17, he received three touches to Henry's 17. Given a similar workload to what we saw down the stretch in 2018, Henry could very well lead the NFL in rushing, giving him a top-5 ceiling in PPR leagues despite presumed limited usage in the passing game.
Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay
Maurile Tremblay: Jones had a forgettable rookie season last year, but he still has solid potential. A new coaching staff will give him a fresh start, and nobody who watched his college tape will doubt his physical ability. At USC, Jones was a versatile running back with exciting big-play ability and excellent ball security. It's hard to explain his failure as a rookie, but not every talented college player transitions smoothly to the NFL. Maybe Jones will get the hang of things in his second year. Or maybe he won't, but his current ADP makes him worth the risk.
Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco
Andy Hicks: Projected to be a strong fantasy option in 2018, Jerick McKinnon missed the season with a knee injury. If he is fully recovered that shouldn’t happen with the addition of Tevin Coleman and the unexpected effort of Matt Breida, among others. None of the backs, though, has demonstrated a penchant for durability with Coleman underperforming following the injury to Devonta Freeman and Breida being injured every week. It is possible that one back will be preferred by the coaching staff, but all present a good case for that role. It should be clear that McKinnon and Coleman will be the favorites for most playing time, and at better value, McKinnon could be a steal late in drafts.
Sony Michel, New England
Maurile Tremblay: Michel performed extremely well during the second half of the season last year, especially including the playoffs. He is a versatile runner, and was particularly impressive in short-yardage situations, often making first downs against eight-man fronts. The Patriots have historically platooned players at the running back situation, but Michel could be as close to an every-down back as they've had since Corey Dillon (if his knee cooperates). Grab Damien Harris as an insurance policy.
Adrian Peterson, Washington
Andy Hicks: At age 34, it is clear that Adrian Peterson could be finished at any time. That said he still had life last year and with Washington likely to start a rookie quarterback and below-average receivers, they will attempt to run the ball. Derrius Guice is an unproven commodity, coming off an ACL tear, while Peterson is a future Hall of Famer who is just off a 1000 yard year. Both should see plenty of work and the best man will see the majority. There is no reason that Peterson cannot be the dominant back and while his upside doesn’t approach that of Guice, he comes at a bargain draft price.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia
Dan Hindery: Philadelphia is a forward-thinking, analytics-heavy front office that hadn’t spent any real draft capital on the running back position in the many years prior to the selection of Miles Sanders in the second round. Clearly, they expect him to be an impact playmaker on offense. It is also worth noting that the Eagles spent approximately 12x the draft capital to acquire Sanders as they did to trade for Jordan Howard (according to the Pro Football Reference draft value chart), who the Eagles acquired for a 2020 6th-rounder (that could become a 5th-rounder). Sanders is especially intriguing from a fantasy perspective because of his pass-catching skills and the fact that we should place a much heavier value on fantasy production late in the season — especially during the fantasy playoffs. Even if Sanders shares snaps evenly with Howard early in the season, he has a good chance to emerge as the go-to back by Week 14.
Ito Smith, Atlanta
Jeff Pasquino: Much is expected of Smith this season, with Tevin Coleman now in San Francisco. Smith inherits the second running back spot in Atlanta, a role he filled admirably (90-315-4 rushing, 27-152 receiving) last season after Devonta Freeman was lost for the season after just two games. In prior seasons when Atlanta had both Freeman and Tevin Coleman, both backs shared the workload and were productive (both finished as Top 22 fantasy backs in both 2016 and 2017). Smith should produce solid RB3-flex numbers in a Coleman-like role at a minimum, and RB2-type production is not out of the question. Lastly, if Freeman gets hurt (yet again), Smith offers a ton of upside.