The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
THIS WEEK'S CASH LINE: 133.42
TEAM #1:
Score: 153.72 (did cash)
QB- Lamar Jackson
RB- David Montgomery
RB- Damien Williams
WR- Christian Kirk
WR- Michael Thomas
WR- Sammy Watkins
TE- Rhett Ellison
FLEX- Saquon Barkley
D/ST- Browns
Finished 13th/50
TEAM #2:
Score: 127.22 (did not cash)
QB- Lamar Jackson
RB- David Montgomery
RB- Damien Williams
WR- Mike Evans
WR- Michael Thomas
WR- Chris Godwin
TE- Mike Gesicki
FLEX- Adam Humphrey
D/ST- Browns
Finished 31st/50
The Overlap
Lamar Jackson's unmatched combination of rushing and passing production this season makes him a viable candidate for cash lineups week-in and week-out. However, a week 11 clash with the bottom feeders of the AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals, jumped off the page as an elite opportunity for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens' offense to post especially strong numbers in a game they were expected to dominate from the start.
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens entered week 11 as 10.5-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals. Typically, teams that are this heavily-favored utilize a more run-heavy offensive attack in an effort to preserve the lead and chew clock. For Lamar Jackson, this increased his viability, as he is by far the most consistent and productive running quarterback in the league. This expected game script increased Jackson's floor and ceiling of rushing production, a significant factor in quarterback selection each week for cash lineups. Jackson also topped the h-value leaderboards in David Dodds' projections this past weekend (which can be found here for week 11,) a common trend amongst this season's sharpest cash-game selections. Lamar Jackson was poised to erupt in week 11 in an elite matchup against the Bengals, whose defense ranks 32nd in adjusted yards per attempt allowed through the air, as well as 31st in the league in yards per carry allowed on the ground. Overall, 54-percent of the sharps in DraftKings' GIANT $1,060 50-50 used Lamar Jackson as their quarterback, and they were rewarded with a strong 33.42-DraftKings-point performance out of the second-year quarterback.
Why Lamar Jackson?
- Dual-threat quarterback facing Cincinnati's 32nd-ranked pass defense and 31st-ranked run defense.
- Entered the game as heavy 10.5-point favorites, which typically increases rushing volume, and Jackson is as likely as any quarterback to benefit from this.
- Number-one in David Dodds' h-value rankings at the quarterback position.
David Montgomery and the Chicago Bears entered week 10 as heavy favorites over the Detroit Lions, who were forced to turn to their backup quarterback, Jeff Driskel, in Matthew Stafford's absence. As a rookie, Montgomery's early-season usage was uninspiring, but in recent weeks he has emerged as the Bears' number-one option on the ground in Chicago's higher-volume rushing attack. At just $5,300, Montgomery made his way into a stunning 94-percent of lineups in DraftKings' GIANT $1,060 50-50 last weekend.
Four weeks ago, following a lopsided defeat at the hands of the New Orleans Saints, Chicago's head coach and play-caller, Matt Nagy, stated, "I know we need to run the ball more. I'm not an idiot." Nagy was acknowledging the Bears' unsuccessful propensity to rely heavily on the Mitchell Trubisky and the team's passing attack with this statement. Since then, David Montgomery played at least 73-percent of snaps in both of the Bears' games, including a 27-carry, 135-yard, and 1-score performance in week 8 against the Los Angeles Chargers. His increased workload in recent weeks was expected to continue into week 10 when the Bears were favored by nearly a full touchdown at home against the Detroit Lions. The Lions' run defense also grades as one of the NFL's weakest units, ranking 26th in total volume faced on the ground and 23rd in yards per carry allowed this season. David Montgomery topped the h-value leaderboards at the running back position entering the week, according to David Dodds' projections, which validated how favorable this matchup against the Lions' struggling defensive front was. Montgomery's growing volume in the Bears' rushing attack, coupled with an elite matchup against a porous run defense led sharps to roster the Bears' rookie running back for just $5,300 on the week 10 DraftKings main slate of games.
Why David Montgomery?
- Growing role in the Bears' rushing attack and his price remains relatively unadjusted for his larger role.
- Running back for heavy six-point favorite, leading to an especially run-heavy offensive approach for the Bears.
- Matchup against a porous Detroit Lions' run defense likely to lead to a highly-efficient game on the ground.
- Number-one in David Dodd's h-value rankings at the running back position.
Late-breaking injury news regarding one of the Chiefs' primary running backs, LeSean McCoy, on Sunday morning opened up significant value at the running back position. Damien Williams, one of the team's effective co-starters at running back, moved into an expected bell-cow role following the news that McCoy would be inactive for week 10, which led 64-percent of sharps to plug him into their cash lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Damien Williams proved to be a capable bell-cow running back in short stretches late in the 2018 season when he climbed up the depth chart due to countless injuries and suspensions throughout the Chiefs' backfield. In week 10, although the matchup against the Tennessee Titans was less-than-ideal, Damien Williams' role in the Chiefs' offense was expected to grow dramatically without LeSean McCoy available. Williams typically played approximately 50-percent of the Chiefs' offensive snaps when McCoy was active earlier in the season. Late last season, in similar situations, Williams routinely played over 70-percent of the team's offensive snaps, leading to increased usage both on the ground and through the air. In week 10, Williams' $4,900 price tag was far too low for his role as the expected bell-cow running back in a famously fantasy-friendly Andy Reid offense. Ultimately, at such a low price, Damien Williams needed just a mediocre offensive performance to make reach value against the Tennessee Titans' formidable run defense. The sharpest DFS players trusted the expected volume Williams was expected to see to get the job done in week 10, as 64-percent of players locked him into their cash lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50.
Why Damien Williams?
- Increased role in the Chiefs' rushing attack following the announcement that LeSean McCoy, the team's other leading rusher, would be inactive.
- Running back in a fantasy-friendly Andy Reid offense that typically includes rushing and passing volume to bolster fantasy production.
- Meager $4,900 price tag lagged far behind his expected volume in the Chiefs' offense as the new bell-cow running back, even in a sub-par matchup.
(Last week's analysis used to project Michael Thomas as a sharp play for week 10)
In week 10, focus attention atop the player pool at the wide receiver position when starting to build cash lineups. Michael Thomas and the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons' horrific pass defense this weekend in the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and with Drew Brees back under center, Thomas is primed for another eruption. Thomas is always one of the top options at the wide receiver position, as he is as matchup-proof as they come at the position. However, an exceptional matchup against a formidable run defense and porous pass highlight him as an especially strong option for cash lineups in week 10. The Atlanta Falcons' secondary is one of the weakest in the NFL defending against the pass, and the lone player on their defense to record an interception, Desmond Trufant, is questionable for the game. So far, in 2019, Michael Thomas' impressive receiving totals have come mostly with Teddy Bridgewater under center for the New Orleans Saints while Drew Brees recovered from a thumb injury he sustained in week 2. In the two full-games Brees played this season, Michael Thomas averages 12 targets, over 10 receptions, and 117 receiving yards per game. Now, in week 10, when the Saints are projected to post the highest-scoring day of any offense on the DraftKings main slate of games, Thomas' likelihood of adding a touchdown to those impressive totals is as high as ever. Hia $8,300 price tag will not be easy to fit into lineups, but he is worth prioritizing in what may be the best matchup of the season for Michael Thomas and the New Orleans Saints' passing attack. He makes for an elite building-block in cash-games this weekend, and the sharpest NFL DFS players will likely prioritize him in their lineups as well.
Why Michael Thomas?
- Elite wide receiver that is viable every week, but now with his starting quarterback back in the fold, his production should increase.
- Matchup against the Atlanta Falcons who field one of the NFL's worst pass defenses.
- New Orleans Saints have the highest projected team total on the slate, making Thomas one of the most-likely touchdown-scorers on the slate.
- Playing at home, in a dome, in November to protect the offense from any adverse weather conditions.
- Number-one in David Dodds' h-value rankings at the wide receiver position.
Next Week's Sharp Play
This week, Brian Hill is the most likely candidate to start in the Atlanta Falcons' backfield, as the team's starter, Devonta Freeman, is reportedly a long-shot to play against the Carolina Panthers. At just $4,800, Hill is priced as the Falcons' number-two option on the ground, and his projected volume far exceeds expectations at this price-point. Hill also has the benefit of starting against the league's last-ranked run defense in both yards per carry allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed this season. Although the Falcons have struggled to move the ball on the ground this season, Brian Hill is simply too cheap for his expected volume and efficiency in a juicy matchup between NFC South rivals. Hill is also a capable pass-catcher, as he proved last week when he hauled in a 10-yard touchdown in the Falcons' upset victory over the New Orleans Saints.
Why Brian Hill?
- $4,800 price tag is far too low for Hill's expected volume in Atlanta's offense, both on the ground and through the air.
- In a strong matchup against the league's bottom-ranked Panthers' run defense, his efficiency should also rise above Atlanta's disappointing season-long rushing numbers.
- Provides much-needed value on a slate that is lacking in bargain-bin options elsewhere.
Previously Projected Sharp Plays
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)
- 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 9: Nick Chubb- 11.1 FanDuel points (1.4x value)/13.1 DraftKings points (1.8x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 10: Michael Thomas- 21.7 FanDuel points (2.5x value)/31.2 DraftKings points (3.8x value)
- 88 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50