Projection Reflections: Training Camp Adjustments

Projection reflections

At Footballguys, we provide real-time projections all season long. Our first set goes live the day after the NFL draft, and sometimes the changes can get lost in the shuffle. Statistics are the engine behind many of our key features, but numbers are only valuable if there's context. This feature will take a look at the key projections adjustments during critical points of the preseason, with an eye toward providing meaning and significance to the numbers.

Included in this week'column:

1. Addressing Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon's holdouts
2. Kerryon Johnson vaults into RB1 status
3. Tyreek Hill avoids punishment
4. Tyler Boyd's time has come, A.J. Green's has passed
5. Shuffling atop the receiver rankings
6. Assessing Josh Gordon's return
7. Andrew Luck's calf warrants caution
8. Jared Goff deserves more respect
9. Cooling on Eric Ebron
10. Running backs risers
11. Receiver risers
12. Quarterback risers
13. Running back fallers
14. Receiver fallers
15. Quarterback fallers
16. TE2s for deeper leagues
17. The Texans backfield
18. The Broncos backfield
19. The 49ers backfield
20. The Eagles backfield
21. The Buccaneers backfield
22. The Dolphins backfield
23. The Washington backfield
24. Fading the Cardinals receivers
25. Frustration with the 49ers receiving corps
26. The Washington quarterback situation is a mess
27. Miami's unappealing quarterback duo

A Tale of Two Holdouts

Two of the league's best tailbacks are embroiled in holdouts, but their circumstances warrant different approaches.

• Ezekiel Elliott falls from RB1 to RB4 but remains a top-end option. Yes, he and Jerry Jones are trading barbs in the press. No, he's not likely to miss much, if any, time. Elliott has no leverage, Dallas can control his fate for two or three more years. And both he and the Cowboys front office want to get a deal done. Expect this to be a nail-biter for another few weeks, but for Zeke to be on the field when it counts.
• Melvin Gordon plummets from RB6 to RB30 and should be avoided. Gordon has leverage and can show up ten games into the season and get his final accrued year. Chargers ownership is notoriously cheap, and unlike the Elliott soap opera, neither side has indicated a willingness to move off their current demands.

Kerryon To Your Roster

Kerryon Johnson was an enticing, young RB2 before camp got underway, but has moved into the RB1 tier. The rise is a combination of giving Johnson a bit more credit for his skill set, as well as a significant bump as a receiver now that Theo Riddick is gone.

Tyreek Avoids Punishment

Way back in early May when our first set of projections went live, Hill was projected as a total zero. The story of his alleged child abuse seemed like the kind of thing that ends in getting released and banned. But, as time went on circumstances changed and, shockingly, ended up being a non-event in terms of Hill's career. Moral judgment aside, Hill ranks as a top-5 receiver in all formats now that he's out from under potential legal trouble.

Changing of the Guard

The Bengals are a team in flux, with new head coach Zac Taylor taking over and trying to implement a version of Sean McVay's dynamic passing attack. Last year, Tyler Boyd emerged amid an otherwise tumultuous season in Cincinnati. Changes are afoot, but one thing that hasn't changed is A.J. Green's propensity for injury.

• A.J. Green falls outside the Top 40 with his latest injury. Although it's possible he'll only miss a few regular-season games; this latest injury is the straw that broke the camel's back. Discretion is the better part of valor.
• Tyler Boyd was WR25 before these developments but now moves into the Top 20 thanks to a guaranteed target share in a high-volume passing attack.

Small Moves, Big Impact

• Odell Beckham is a transcendent talent, and I'm not sounding the alarm. I am, however, bumping him down a few spots in part because I'm not comfortable assuming 16 games played. The Browns offense is the en vogue pick for a breakout showing, and I'm generally in agreement. But there are risks associated with so many high-profile moving pieces coming together under a new coaching staff. I'm fine with Beckham as a WR1 but think he's riskier than the six receivers who now rank ahead of him. Beckham is the top of the next tier.
• T.Y. Hilton gets a small bump down (and drops a spot in the rankings) because of Andrew Luck's health concerns.
• Antonio Brown falls from WR8 to WR12, which still understates the concerns I have. Changing teams is risky enough. Changing teams, going from Ben Roethlisberger to Derek Carr, nearly freezing your feet off, and then threatening retirement over a helmet makes drafting Brown riskier than walking into a bio-weapons lab without a hazmat suit.

Patriot Games

A few weeks ago it looked like Tom Brady would be throwing the ball 1,000 times to a combination of James White and Julian Edelman, but the Patriots always find a way. Josh Gordon has been reinstated, and that helps stratify the rest of the receiving corps.

• Julian Edelman is helped, not hurt, by Gordon's signing. Opposing defenses won't be able to key on him as easily, and Edelman and Gordon occupy different places on the field. A dynamic vertical threat like Gordon helps open up the intermediate zone where Edelman dominates.
• Josh Gordon is a lightning rod for controversy. He put up WR3 numbers on a per-game basis last year in New England, but there are still people in every draft who think Gordon can recapture the magic of five years ago. He won't. There's still a ton of risk in drafting him, and you shouldn't pay full value on draft day, which means you probably won't end up with him on your roster.
• Maurice Harris, Phillip Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas, and Cam Meredith all take hits with Gordon in the picture.
• Undrafted rookie Jakobi Myers is a long shot, but he was the best receiver in training camp, and that counts for something.

Is Andrew Running Out of Luck?

Andrew Luck is maddening. Last year's resurgence made him a consensus top-5 choice in early drafts this summer, but a lingering leg injury started blurring expectations. The lack of information and inconsistent diagnosis have justifiably scared people off of targeting Luck as a QB1. He's currently ranked QB9 but has been higher and lower in the last two months. As we get more information, the projections will continue to adjust. For now, we're leaning toward an optimistic outcome and assuming he's his usual self for 15 games. No one is going to blame you if you take a more cautious stance.

OFF About Goff

We can all be guilty of recency bias, and I was caught up in Goff's abysmal Super Bowl whiff. The reality is Goff had an excellent season last year and gets his favorite target -- Cooper Kupp -- back from a torn ACL. With three top-20 receivers, one of the league's best running backs, gifted offensive coaches, and the boon of another year of experience in the system together, Goff is one of the safer quarterbacks to target at his ADP.

Ebron Down the Road

This is a relatively small adjustment with big implications. Ebron's touchdown rate last year was unsustainable, and after studying touchdown regression rates this summer, I had to take his projections down further. That adjustment is enough to push Ebron below Evan Engram and O.J. Howard. Andrew Luck's injury status further complicates Ebron's outlook.

• O.J. Howard's numbers haven't changed, but he's worth targeting over Ebron, which is an important change in outlook
• Engram's numbers go up a bit for two reasons. One, Daniel Jones may not be any worse than Eli Manning if he plays. Two, Golden Tate is going to miss four games.

Running Back Risers

These are the guys with undeniable momentum. Each is an early-round target worthy of your attention.

• James Conner has basically switched placed with Le'Veon Bell. We tend to undervalue the importance of offensive lines, and Conner plays behind one of the league's best units. Neither Benny Snell nor Jaylen Samuels offers a credible threat to Conner's workload, either.
• Christopher Carson has been the most significant jump of anyone in the Top 25. Carson was RB14 last year, and I wasn't giving him enough credit. Any fears of Rashaad Penny forcing a full-blown committee have evaporated over the previous month. Carson is getting the starting reps, and there isn't a single beat writer willing to say Penny has looked good enough to push for more touches.
• I generally fade the Raiders, but it's hard to discount Josh Jacobs. Jon Gruden has many flaws, but he also has a long history of giving his top running backs a heavy workload. Jacobs is going to touch ball an inordinate amount and is worth a top-25 selection on volume alone.
• Even though I've moved David Montgomery higher, he's still being drafted a round or two earlier than my projections suggest. Montgomery is talented, and head coach Matt Nagy recently said Tarik Cohen's role would be lessened, but it's still a risky proposition. Mike Davis is no slouch, and even in a reduced role Cohen will vulture a lot of receptions and put a ceiling on Montgomery's value in PPR leagues especially.

Wide Receiver Risers

This group of pass-catchers warranted projection bumps, for various reasons. For this article, we're limiting this to top-50 players at the position.

• Tyler Lockett is better than I gave him credit for, and multiple beat writers spoke about his continued improvement as a route runner. My criticism revolved around his unsustainable touchdown rate, but his increased target share should more than offset touchdown-rate normalization.
• The drum beats out of Panthers camp are undeniable, and while some are tilting toward Curtis Samuel, I'm pushing D.J. Moore's numbers higher. Both are talented, but Moore has the well-rounded game to become an every-week fantasy star. If Cam Newton stays healthy, Moore's numbers could skew even higher than this new projection indicates.
• Corey Davis would rank higher if the Titans offense wasn't such a question market. But Davis' raw ability and a strong camp performance warranted a bump. The other factor working in Davis' favor is Ryan Tannehill. He's no worse than Marcus Mariota as a passer, so Davis has a lower risk of completely falling off than many receivers in the same tier.
• New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore brings an air of excitement to the Dallas offense. Amari Cooper's arrival overshadowed Gallup, but he's steadily improved and was arguably the team's best offensive player in training camp. Gallup profiles as a classic third-year breakout.
• Torn Achilles tendons are supposed to ruin careers. Yet, Emmanuel Sanders is not only suiting up, but he's also practiced fully and already playing in preseason games. It's a medical miracle, but it also warrants vaulting him back into the WR4 tier. Another strong week and he could be bumped another tier or two.

Quarterback Risers

The plate tectonics are always shifting outcomes, and this group of signal-callers warranted upgrades based on training camp developments.

• Carson Wentz was on his way to the NFL MVP in 2017 before tearing multiple knee ligaments. Last year he was good, but not great, and ended the year on the trainer's table yet again. As a result, I discounted him a few games in initial projections. But he now warrants a full projection as he's 100% healthy and had a stellar preseason. The Eagles are loaded with talent, and Wentz is one of the few quarterbacks capable of finishing as the No. 2 fantasy quarterback (no one is touching Patrick Mahomes II if he stays healthy).
• Lamar Jackson isn't going to light the league up as a passer, but he doesn't have to. As long as he's a credible thrower, opposing defenses will have no answer for his Michael Vick-like mobility. Vick was a top-5 fantasy quarterback in spite of being a limited thrower, and Jackson's college film actually looks much better than Vick's. The bump in passing stats, combined with already elite rushing stats, makes Jackson an enticing QB1 with top-5 upside.
• Kyler Murray is a riser, but he's still ranked QB18, which is much lower than he's being drafted. The adjustment higher is in recognition of Kliff Kingsbury's commitment to playing at a fast pace, but I still worry the Cardinals could be a dumpster fire given the state of the offensive line and Kingsbury's spotty resume.
• Tom Brady spent most of his career as a fantasy QB1, but those days are gone. He ranked 17th on a per-game basis last year and has lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement. Yet, he gets a bump here back into the top-20 range thanks to Josh Gordon's reinstatement.

Running Back Fallers

All of these running backs are top-20 choices, so it's not like we're running for the hills. But in the early rounds, you often have to choose between a handful of similarly-ranked players and this quartet are falling a bit against their peer group.

• Le'Veon Bell falls from RB6 to RB9, which is a big enough move to imply you won't be rostering him if you follow my rankings. Someone will draft him a few spots higher. And that's okay. Bell's talent is undeniable, but he signed in New York only because they were the highest bidder. New head coach Adam Gase has a troubling history of under-utilizing talented running backs. And the Jets' offensive line is a massive drop-off from the Steelers blockers.
• It's not so much that Marlon Mack's outlook has dimmed, as a few other running backs became more appealing. He should be a quality asset, but I did cut his yardage a bit to account for the risk Andrew Luck misses time.
• I'm a huge Sony Michel supporter, so this reduction pains me. But it was necessary as I had Michel's receiving numbers far too high relative to what he showed a year ago. Plus, the knee condition warrants knocking another game off his projection.
• Damien Williams is the most frightening of fantasy players. He's being drafted as a can't-miss stud on what amounts to a four-week sample size from last year. The Chiefs offense is good enough to support anyone in the starting lineup, but Williams pedigree makes him a better risk as an RB2 than an RB1.

Wide Receiver Fallers