Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Last week I promised there would be a return to regular service – and there was. A 12-4 week was exactly what I – and hopefully all of you – needed as we approach the uncertainty-laden final week of the regular season. Make no mistake: only brave people wager on games that, in some cases, have no playoff implications. Picking the right spots is critical to a net gain any week, but especially in Week 17.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
CLEVELAND (-2.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 45)
Well, they’ve finally done it. After a highly improbable fight back in the dying seconds to not only tie the game against Miami but also to barely lose in overtime, the Bengals have locked and loaded the number one pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. That sound you hear is a sigh of relief coming from the Queen City, where even the most diehard and principled Bengals fan would have been quietly hoping for the rally to fall short. Andy Dalton clearly had other plans, and this clash against the Browns has nothing on but end-of-season pride.
A thread running through the schedule this week will be simply to ask: ‘what are these teams playing for?’. For the Browns, the answer may be complex and multi-layered. How about the future of your head coach, the locker room camaraderie, the offseason mood and, perhaps, the future of your disgruntled franchise quarterback? So, while the standings will show the Browns out of playoff contention, this game means an awful lot for their future. Why they are favorites on the road is a little puzzling, but surely their superior talent will shine through. Right?
Pick: Cleveland
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (-16) (Over/Under 45)
The formula is simple for New England: win here and a 10th straight playoff bye is theirs for the taking. Credit must be given to the Patriots for their performance on Saturday, a gritty, determined victory that demonstrated their resolve as a unit. This team feeds off criticism in a way no other team does, and it lights a fire that Bill Belichick continues to stoke throughout the season – and the postseason. In some ways, this stuttering campaign was exactly what the coach needed to keep his players focused after a near-perfect start to the campaign. The mismatch on paper will be borne out against a Dolphins team that, while competitive, is as far from competing as New England is from surrendering their hold on the AFC East.
Former Belichick disciple Brian Flores has rallied his patchwork roster of players to a four-win campaign, a feat many would not have even fathomed coming into the season. The Dolphins were chumps, written off as a team ready and willing to tank. Instead, the hirsute veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick has done what he always does, namely getting more out of his limited physical skills than he should and inspiring his teammates to play for him. This might be the last time we see the Harvard man on an NFL field, so get your popcorn ready.
Pick: Miami
CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-7 to -1) (Over/Under 37)
A pair of primetime embarrassments was all these two NFC North teams had to show for their Week 16 outings. The Bears failed to catch fire on a chilly night in Soldier Field, folding under the pressure of the improved Chiefs defense as Mitchell Trubisky demonstrated why the franchise has questions to address with him. The Vikings came off worse, as their drives sputtered, and Kirk Cousins was unable to lift them. Defensively, Mike Zimmer’s team did all it could have reasonably been asked to do; it just wasn’t enough when the offense was that inept.
Minnesota is locked in as the number six seed in the playoffs and can look forward to a road game in the first round, though against whom is hard to say with so many permutations to sort out this week. A return to offensive competency will be their priority in this clash, though the starters may not finish out this game with essentially nothing to play for. One to avoid if you can.
Pick: Minnesota
LA CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY (-7.5 to -8.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The Chargers are in a weird situation. Poised to move to a fancy new stadium next season, they leave their temporary home with a sense of disconnection, confusion and, ultimately, as a franchise in flux. The current draft order has the itinerant Chargers team picking in the top 10, a spot that would surely give them the opportunity to select their franchise quarterback of the future, a new hope to lead them into the new era. With the prospect of new beginnings comes the potential end of a storied career, that of current quarterback Philip Rivers, whose season has been pockmarked by errors and sub-par play the likes of which we haven’t seen from him before. Does he have one more big game in him?
Kansas City, winners of five straight, find themselves on a roll entering the playoffs. Currently locked in as the number three seed, the Chiefs would need New England to lose to Miami, along with a victory here, to jump into the number two seed. Andy Reid could be scoreboard-watching as the game goes on if, as expected, the Patriots take care of business. Patrick Mahomes II could, therefore, be yanked early, giving the 7.5-point line an appealing gloss for back-door cover purposes. The Chiefs should take care of business here, but with so much uncertainty over which starters will play and for how long, the Chargers are a super choice.
Pick: Los Angeles
NY JETS at BUFFALO (-1 to -1.5) (Over/Under 37)
The Bills are locked in as the number five seed and therefore have no incentive – other than pride – to play their starters this week. With this in mind, Vegas has made them a short favorite, with the implication being that even a second-string Buffalo team led by Matt Barkley is fancied over a Jets team playing all its starters. The likelihood is that this game ends promptly at 3:45 pm EST or before, with Scott Hanson chiming in quickly on NFL Red Zone to let us know that the low-scoring affair with few highlights has concluded.
The Jets are playing to end their season on a high after a tumultuous campaign that featured ghosts, their franchise quarterback getting mono and many other forgettable moments. New York’s long-term plan must culminate in something like what Sean McDermott has forged in Buffalo, putting them in a position to compete for the division title when the Patriots’ time on top ends. This is a tricky one to call with so much uncertainty, so taking the points is the right play.
Pick: New York
GREEN BAY (-9.5 to -12.5) at DETROIT (Over/Under 41.5)
No, it’s not pretty, but you can’t argue how effective the Packers have been this season as they amassed 12 wins. It is all still in front of this team, and a win here against the David Blough-led Lions will seal a first-round bye and an all-important bit of home cooking in Lambeau Field in January. Better still, a win combined with a San Francisco loss to Seattle would vault the Packers up to the top seed in the NFC, an outcome that would have been scarcely believable a few weeks ago. The identity of this team is one of toughness, proving the doubters wrong, sound defense and a steady offense powered by a veteran offensive line and running game. Oh, and that guy Rodgers isn’t too shabby either.
Honestly, the 9.5-point line might be underselling the Packers a little bit. Detroit has a long way to go to return to the pinnacle of the NFC North, but Matt Patricia will at least expect his troops to play hard and finish out the season strong. The Lions head coach’s future is secure after an endorsement by the brass, so they will one more go-around before it is blown up. Green Bay is the team that needs it most, though, so it’s an easy choice.
Pick: Green Bay
NEW ORLEANS (-13) at CAROLINA (Over/Under 47.5)
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen was scathing in his criticism of the organization in the wake of the team’s seventh consecutive loss on Sunday. Citing an "organizational failure," Olsen slammed the players for not working hard enough and said that the fans "deserve better." That is damning coming from a player of Olsen’s caliber and something that could leave a sour taste in the mouths of these Carolina players entering the offseason, one with more questions than answers. Since the firing of Ron Rivera, the team has deteriorated, with injuries and a leadership void playing a big part.
The Saints could conceivably finish with a 13-3 record and still miss out on a bye. It would take a 49ers or Packers loss to jump into the number two seed, while both NFC rivals would have to lose to secure the coveted top seed. New Orleans thrives when playing at home, so securing even the two seed would be a huge step towards Miami and the Super Bowl. Expect all the starters to play for as long as they need to, though it may not be for long against a Carolina team that has been a speed bump in recent weeks.
Pick: New Orleans
ATLANTA (pick) at TAMPA BAY (Over/Under 49.5)
There is nothing on the line in this game for either team, though many subplots bubble to the surface, nonetheless. The Falcons must decide whether a strong finish to the season will be enough to give Dan Quinn another shot, though rumblings from the organization seem to indicate that he will be given his marching orders. On the field, Matt Ryan has been remarkably consistent of late and his rapport with Julio Jones has developed further with Calvin Ridley out of the line-up.
Jameis Winston conspired to dig a hole for his team on Saturday before coming up with a dizzying array of throws to get them back into it. It is simply in his DNA to throw caution to the wind; Bruce Arians will have to think about how tolerant he will be of that type of derring-do for his final years as a head coach. Though it shouldn’t, recency bias plays a part in any decision involving a quarterback. If the Bucs defense can hold up their end of the bargain and Winston can limit mistakes, it could be a memorable finish to 2019 for the home team.
Pick: Tampa Bay
PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 45)
The NFC East is now under the control of the Eagles, but there is one final job to be done before they can look forward to hosting a home game. It hasn’t always been pretty for Philly this season – in fact, it has been downright comical at times – but Carson Wentz has grown as a player. It is obvious watching him that he relishes the big stage and putting the team on his back. Of course, Miles Sanders and the offensive line must take credit as well. Defensively, this team should have the beating of the Giants. A loss here would be devastating for Philadelphia and would give Dallas one last chance to clinch the division title.
The Giants aren’t playing for anything but pride, but don’t expect them to let up against a division rival. The New York media won’t allow them to rest for one moment this week, especially after the Daniel Jones bandwagon got a little bit more crowded in the wake of his five-touchdown game last week. The Cowboys failed to test the Eagles’ secondary, an area of weakness that other offenses would have exploited. If the Giants give Jones the keys and allow him to be aggressive downfield, fireworks could be in the offing.
Pick: New York
TENNESSEE (-6 to -3.5) at HOUSTON (Over/Under 45.5)
The Titans win and they are in. Simple, right? Well, it all depends on how the Texans choose to approach this game. By the time Houston kicks off at 4:25 pm ET, they will already know the result of the Chiefs’ earlier game, and if Kansas City wins that game then Houston has no chance to jump up to the number three seed. Get it? Got it? Good. And getting that third seed is the primary motivation in this clash, other than of course denying the Titans a number six seed. The smart money is on Bill O’Brien resting his starters – and Vegas agrees, making the Titans six-point favorites on the road.
This couldn’t really have worked out any better for Tennessee. Pittsburgh’s loss last week was exactly what they needed, allowing them to turn all their focus to this game. The return of Jeffery Simmons and Derrick Henry would be a major boon, but it may not matter. This Titans team is good enough to go toe to toe with the Texans playing with a full deck; without Deshaun Watson, this could be over by half-time considering how well Ryan Tannehill has been playing.
Pick: Tennessee
WASHINGTON at DALLAS (-11) (Over/Under 44.5)
It is all to play for at Jerry World. The Cowboys must take care of business and hope that the Eagles slip up against the Giants; only then can they back their way into a division title and an improbable playoff game. This could be Jason Garrett’s last game as head coach, but it would be naïve to expect him to pull out all the stops. He hasn’t exactly been the picture of aggression with play-calling, after all. The Cowboys should have no problem putting the Redskins in a hole early on, but there will be a fair share of scoreboard watching. Fans will be checking their devices to see how the Eagles/Giants tilt is progressing; if it goes sour, the murmurs in the crowd will tell the players – and that can be unsettling.
Dwayne Haskins is set to miss this game, a stroke of bad luck for a player who was just coming into his own over the past few contests. Case Keenum will have a week to prepare for a Dallas defense that has been flat as a pancake at times, so chances will be there to attack. Bill Callahan will lean on the ageless Adrian Peterson to shorten the game, and Washington could keep it close, especially if Dallas finds out they are playing for nothing when the Eagles are up 35-10.
Pick: Washington
PITTSBURGH (-2) at BALTIMORE (Over/Under 39.5)
The situation for the Steelers is complicated: a win against the Ravens, combined with a Titans loss, a Raiders loss and a Colts win would seal the sixth seed. In other words, they need a lot of help, such is the damage that the loss to the Jets dealt. As impressive as this defense has been this season, it was unable to make up for the shortcomings of Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph against the Jets. Perhaps the journey is finally coming to an end, but Mike Tomlin has thrown the kitchen sink at this season. Can the defense rally one more time to give them a chance?
The Ravens are planning to rest key starters, so Robert Griffin III III will try to keep things on schedule. Griffin’s lack of game action will suit the Steelers, but the Ravens’ roster is formidable. Even with a second-string line-up in some positions, they are still a talented team and will be a handful at home. In Pittsburgh, things would be different, but there won’t be as many Terrible Towels waving here.
Pick: Baltimore
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 43)
Another game that revolves mostly around pride for two also-rans in the AFC South. The Colts will have a hand in some playoff scenarios, with a win helping the Steelers and Raiders in tiebreakers, but they won’t be concerned with that. Finishing up the season 8-8 is not what Frank Reich had in mind, but he will look back on this season thinking a few plays here and there would have changed things for the better. They are not as far away from Houston and Tennessee as some performances have indicated.
The Jaguars, however, are squinting through binoculars at their rivals, adrift in last place and looking at a top 10 pick in the 2020 Draft. Who knows what direction this franchise will head next? Where does this season leave them as far as Nick Foles’ future, for example? Will Gardner Minshew be trade bait in the offseason? Is the entire coaching staff getting canned after this game, regardless of the result? Questions abound, but the spot here is good for the Jaguars. After all, the Colts are coming off a thumping of the Panthers, while the Jaguars are in a rut. The half-point here is crucial in what should be a close game.
Pick: Jacksonville
OAKLAND at DENVER (-3.5) (Over/Under 41)
It is a four-part story for the Raiders this week, but they need all these things to happen to secure an improbable playoff spot. Firstly, they need to win in Denver. After that, the boxes they will look to tick are Houston beating Tennessee, Indianapolis beating Jacksonville and Baltimore beating Pittsburgh. There is a catch, though; even if all those results pan out, there is still a complex strength of victory tiebreaker to take care of. No doubt Scott Hanson will have his work cut out on NFL Red Zone trying to explain the in-game permutations.
So, if nothing else, both teams will likely keep their starters in for the entire game. Drew Lock has been solid in his starts so far, giving the Broncos something to look forward to in 2020. Realistically that should be the focus of the Raiders as well – one eye on 2020 and beyond in Las Vegas. In their final game as the Oakland Raiders, bet on the Silver and Black to get the job done.
Pick: Oakland
ARIZONA at LA RAMS (-7 to -7.5) (Over/Under 47.5)
Kyler Murray, who suffered a hamstring strain last week, is expected to practice heading into this dead rubber NFC West tilt. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they appear to have a capable backup in Brett Hundley, who looked like a player unburdened by pressure against Seattle, letting it all hang out. Presuming Murray returns, this should be a fascinating clash between him and the Rams defense. Expect Murray’s involvement on the ground to be limited, so Kenyan Drake is in for a decent workload.
The Rams will look back on this season and wonder where it all went wrong, but ultimately, they weren’t far off the mark. Jared Goff played one of the best games of his career last week – apart from the pick-six – and will be the starter going into 2020. The team’s mortgaging of the future for today could come back and haunt them, though, if Goff doesn’t pan out. The defense has been spectacular at times, so they will look to control things against an overmatched Cardinals offensive line. The back-door cover is firmly in play.
Pick: Arizona
(Sunday Night) SAN FRANCISCO (-3) at SEATTLE (Over/Under 47)
What a perfect game to finish the regular season. The implications are massive for both teams. A 49ers victory would seal the number one seed and an easier path to the Super Bowl for a team whose only three losses have come in the dying moments. For the Seahawks, things are more complex. A win here plus a Packers or Saints loss would vault them into a bye – or even the top seed. This is exactly the type of drama that will make this a memorable affair.
The previous meeting between these sides a few weeks ago was an epic clash and had a playoff-type atmosphere about it. Expect this game to be on another level of intensity. The best advice here is to take the points with the home team, even with how hobbled they are. The emotional boost of Marshawn Lynch’s return alone can take this team over the top, keeping in mind that they are 14-7 (66.7%) against the spread as the home underdog under Pete Carroll.
Pick: Seattle
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Last week was an excellent one, going 12-4 ATS and 3-1 with the best bets. A great way to bounce back, but now it’s time to finish strong. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and some teams resting starters – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 SEATTLE (+3) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- 2 TENNESSEE (-3.5) at HOUSTON
- 3 NEW ORLEANS (-13) at CAROLINA
- 4 GREEN BAY (-12.5) at DETROIT
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 17 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.6-1 ODDS)
- GREEN BAY (-12.5)
- NEW ORLEANS (-13)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM MONEY LINE BET (2.68-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (+155)
- TENNESSEE (-185)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.86-1 ODDS)
- SEATTLE (+3)
- NEW ORLEANS (-13)
- TENNESSEE (-3.5)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay, Tennessee, New York Giants
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 12-4
- SEASON OVERALL: 130-112 (53.7%)
- BEST BETS: 30-31 (49.1%), last week 3-1
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 40-35 (53.3%), last week 3-2
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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