Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
My overall season record remains solid at 100-92, but some bad beats and surprise results (Washington beating Carolina, really?!) have thrown a spanner in the works. No excuses, though; the undeterred gambler is also the smart gambler, unwilling to fold under pressure and staying true to his or her convictions. Let us apply that same logic and vigor to this week’s tantalizing slate.
The byes are in the rear-view mirror, so we have a full slate of games to sink our teeth into.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) DALLAS (-3) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 43)
It is all beginning to slip away for the Cowboys – and yet the continued ineptitude of their division rival Philadelphia has thrown them a life raft. The Eagles’ loss to the Dolphins last week – unexpected but not exactly shocking – means that Dallas losing to Buffalo isn’t as damaging as originally feared. A glancing blow, but not a fatal one. The rumblings around Jason Garrett’s future as head coach linger around this team, but they are undeniably the most talented and best-suited for an NFC playoff berth, albeit likely a short-lived one. At 6-6, the Cowboys cannot afford to let this crucial Thursday night opportunity get away. Under Garrett, it should be noted that Dallas is just 26-28-3 (48.3%) against the spread after a loss.
For the Bears, also loitering around the fringes of the NFC playoff picture at 6-6, in some ways the pressure is off. Matt Nagy has already squeezed every drop he possibly can out of Mitchell Trubisky’s talent; the final few games of the season will be nothing more than an audition for next season as to whether the quarterback will play a bit-part role or a starring one. The defense in Chicago has remained a steady force but hasn’t been the dominant unit of 2018. The spot here is decent for the home team to get above .500, but the Cowboys need this more. Expect Garrett to be aggressive with his coaching life on the line.
Pick: Dallas
CAROLINA at ATLANTA (-2) (Over/Under 48)
Carolina has been the definition of a Jekyll and Hyde team for the past few weeks. A dressing-down at home against the Falcons was swiftly followed by a valiant losing performance at New Orleans – and then last week happened. The ultimate embarrassment and possibly a coach-killing loss at home to the lowly Washington Redskins. If Ron Rivera isn’t sweating bullets about his future, he should be. Kyle Allen continues to inspire and horrify in equal measure with his erratic play, something that surely has turned owner David Tepper off his long-term prospects. A rematch with Atlanta is the last thing this team needs.
As for the Falcons, their trajectory has been highly unpredictable this season, much like their black and blue rivals Carolina. What is clear is that neither team is going to the playoffs, with both teams likely to part ways with their head coaches. The health of Julio Jones could be a huge factor in this game. Carolina’s cornerbacks should be able to handle the combination of Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, but Jones has always been a thorn in the side for Rivera’s team. The short two-point line at home for the Falcons seems a little too respectful of a Panthers team that deserves none.
Pick: Atlanta
INDIANAPOLIS at TAMPA BAY (-3.5) (Over/Under 49.5)
Suddenly the task for the Colts looks too steep to recover from. The Texans (8-4) and the Titans (7-5) have pipped Frank Reich’s team, whose hold on the division was tenuous at best. Tennessee’s win on Sunday was an impressive one and an indictment of the Colts’ current state. Picking themselves up for an away game against a non-conference opponent will be tough, which might explain why the Bucs are laying 3.5 points and not the traditional three points at home. Kicking may ultimately be one of the major regrets of the season for Indianapolis. The unit has produced a comedy of errors throughout, taking points off the board for a team that wins, when it does, by narrow margins.
The Bucs have entered the backstretch of the season and looked unburdened and light of foot as they demolished the Jaguars. For Bruce Arians’ team, like many in the league at this time of year, the pressure is completely off. The playoffs are but a distant dream, paving the way for Jameis Winston to once again convince the Bucs brass that he is the future for the franchise. He has made a decent argument over the past couple of weeks – and stands a good chance of adding to that here. If the Bucs can get on top with their high-powered offense, the Colts are not built to come back.
Pick: Tampa Bay
MIAMI at NY JETS (-6) (Over/Under 44)
The ups and downs of being a Jets fan must be some of the most trying and haunting experiences any sports fan can endure. Each of them deserves a medal. It was such a Jets move to lure the fanbase back in with a short winning streak, creating the whiff of a playoff berth, only to lay a massive egg against the winless Bengals. Suddenly the momentum has been sucked out of the team again and, at 4-8, the season is over. The visit of the Dolphins might be a good way to get back on track, however.
But Miami will not roll over for their division rivals, one would suspect. After all, the Jets lost to these Dolphins just a few weeks ago. Adam Gase will be determined to avoid a season sweep and perhaps a fast-track ticket out of New York. The fact remains that the Dolphins defense is porous, however, and the strong lean here is to a Jets offense that can spark to life in its best moments. Not to discount last week’s Cincinnati debacle, but Sam Darnold and his team should get back on track here. The six-point spread is a little rich, though.
Pick: Miami
SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS (-3) (Over/Under 45)
The schedule gods were not smiling on San Francisco when they set up back to back road games against two of the NFL’s superpowers, both on the road. Alas, here they are, and having only lost to Baltimore by three points they can be proud in defeat. Losing to an AFC team isn’t the end of the world but dropping one to the Saints could be fatal to the 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes. As things stand the 49ers hold the number one seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; a tiebreaking loss here would take that significant advantage away. This is set up to be an absolute barnburner of a clash between two of the NFL’s best teams. The coaching battle is a fascinating one; the derring-do of Sean Payton taking on the creativity of Kyle Shanahan. How will each defense cope under the many stresses applied to them?
The 49ers will fancy their chances of getting a crucial victory here on the back of their defense, a unit that has caused every quarterback they have faced many problems. Crafting a game plan against Drew Brees will not be nearly as daunting as one for Lamar Jackson, whose running ability caused the 49ers headaches. There is a sense that Brees’ downfield threat isn’t what it used to be, and the 49ers excel at underneath coverage and rallying to make sure tackles. It will be up to Jimmy Garoppolo to match Brees at every step. A three-point line seems fair for this clash of two NFC titans.
Pick: San Francisco
DETROIT at MINNESOTA (-14) (Over/Under 42.5)
Kirk Cousins has surely dismissed any lingering doubters after his performance on Monday Night Football, one that came close to batting aside the formidable Seahawks at home. The numbers are strongly in Minnesota’s favor – under Mike Zimmer, they are 25-9-0 (73.5%) against the spread, a record unmatched by any other team. In other words, this team bounces back from down weeks in style. At 8-4, the NFC North is not yet out of their reach – and getting out of the sixth seed and securing a home playoff game will be the top priority.
All of it points to a rather rude welcome for their division rivals Detroit on Sunday. With Matthew Stafford likely out for the rest of the year, it will fall to either Jeff Driskel, himself nursing an injury, or Thanksgiving savior David Blough to stave off the Vikings pass rush and give the Lions a chance. With a spread of 14 points, this is one that should be avoided, but the Vikings could pull this off.
Pick: Minnesota
DENVER at HOUSTON (-8 to -9.5) (Over/Under 41)
The Broncos deserve a bit of credit for rallying last week and knocking off the Chargers, especially considering it was rookie Drew Lock’s first start. The former Missouri product didn’t perform too badly, quickly figuring out that Courtland Sutton was the man to trust in important situations. That trust was rewarded and will likely become a focal point for the offense against a Houston secondary that surrendered big chunks against the Patriots. Denver’s defense will have a tough time measuring up to Deshaun Watson and company, however.
The eight-point line for this game is a massive vote of confidence by Vegas in the talents the Texans possess. Bill O’Brien will rely on his ground game to soften Denver up before hitting them downfield with the passing attack; it’s not sexy, but it’s effective with Watson at the controls. There is a let-down possibility for Houston coming off the huge win against New England, but rookie quarterbacks in their first road starts tend to struggle – and Lock simply won’t be able to keep up.
Pick: Houston
BALTIMORE (-6 to -5.5) at BUFFALO (Over/Under 43.5)
The Bills are 8-3-1 against the spread this season. That is a cover percentage of 72.7, for those keeping score at home – and a reminder that while the Bills are consistently underrated by Vegas, they tend to deliver. On this December afternoon, we can expect a heavy dose of the ground attack from both teams – and not necessarily through the running backs. In fact, the quarterbacks in this game are arguably the driving force of each team’s rushing offense. Josh Allen has eight rushing touchdowns compared to Lamar Jackson’s seven, something the uber-competitive MVP contender will be keen to redress.
Sitting pretty at 9-3 in the AFC, the Bills have all but clinched a playoff place, so the motivation here may not be as strong as it is for Baltimore, who need to win to retain the all-important number one seed. And yet Sean McDermott’s team showed us last Thursday that they back away from no challenge. In knocking off the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, Josh Allen announced to the football world that he had matured to a point where he can be trusted to ride this offense wherever it needs to go. The Bills may be the inferior team, but there is a certain magic in the air on those frigid days in the Ralph. Six points for a team that has dominated against the spread this year seems a bit off.
Pick: Buffalo
CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND (-10.5 to -8.5) (Over/Under 43.5)
It would be the ultimate Bengal-y thing to do to play their way out of the first draft pick by stringing together a series of improbable wins, thus denying them the opportunity to draft potential franchise savior Joe Burrow. Though the Browns are laying a whopping 10.5 points, the Bengals should be not be overlooked in this spot. After all, Andy Dalton’s presence alone rejuvenates the offense and makes it, if not dynamic, at least respectable. The Cleveland defense lacked juice against a feeble Steelers offense last week. With the season now in the toilet, and in a recurring theme of this week, can the Browns pick themselves up, self-motivate, and rally at home?
The short answer is we simply don’t know. What we do know is that the Bengals defense has stepped up its game, allowing 17, 16 and six points, respectively, over the past three weeks. If Baker Mayfield has a hiccup or two in this game, the Cincinnati defense – which, let’s not forget, has talented players – can pounce. It is always a nerve-wracking prospect to trust the team who will finish with the worst record, but 10.5 points is too much. Even 8.5 may be a little much.
Pick: Cincinnati
WASHINGTON at GREEN BAY (-13.5 to -13) (Over/Under 42)
If ever you wondered what a Bill Callahan fever dream looked like, last Sunday in Charlotte gave you a pretty good picture. A punishing ground game that mauls the opposing defense, allowing your quarterback to pick apart the secondary with simple reads and throws. Or, in the case of Dwayne Haskins, sometimes make expected completions – and others fail to pull the trigger. Haskins looked more poised against the Panthers, but how likely is a repeat performance from Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson in Green Bay? In their favor is the fact that it will be a chilly day, so the running game will be leaned on more. But the Packers are unlikely to be ripped to shreds as easily as the reeling Panthers.
And of course, Aaron Rodgers is no Kyle Allen. While Allen was flummoxed by the Washington pass rush, Rodgers should be able to exploit opportunities and get rid of the ball quickly. The lack of a sustaining rushing attack for the Packers must be a concern for Matt LeFleur, but Rodgers and the passing game will have no qualms about putting their snow tires on if need be. The 13.5-point spread is just here. It is entirely possible that some overzealous types bet the number down as money comes in on Washington, blinded as they are by the performance last week. It is a large spread, so the best play here might be no play at all, but the lean is to Green Bay.
Pick: Green Bay
LA CHARGERS (-2.5 to -3) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 43)
The Chargers’ season has gone down the pipes in a predictable way, as losing close games has bitten them time and again. With reports emerging prior to Sunday’s game that Philip Rivers could be on the chopping block as the starting quarterback, the situation went from strange to wild. Anthony Lynn may be on his last legs as head coach as well, so the team appears to be in a fragile state from top to bottom. The fact they are laying points on the road is an indictment of how worse off the Jaguars are.
Like the Chargers, the Jaguars face a bit of a quandary at the quarterback position. Do they stick with the man the franchise invested significant sums of money in, Nick Foles, who has performed poorly in limited action? Or do they give Gardner Minshew the reins until the end of the season, see what the rookie can do and re-evaluate in the offseason? None of it may matter if Shahid Khan blows up the whole thing, letting go of Doug Marrone and maybe even Tom Coughlin. With so much uncertainty, and with the Jaguars performing as poorly as they are, this is one that should be avoided at all costs. If you’re feeling brave, though, the spot is a good one for the Jags catching points at home.
Pick: Jacksonville
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 43)
Mike Tomlin, despite all the doubters over the years, has once again knitted his team together in the face of a seemingly insurmountable obstacle: the loss of Ben Roethlisberger. Tomlin should be firmly in the running for Coach of the Year, with the Steelers sitting at 7-5 and looking a solid bet to make the postseason. The Pittsburgh faithful donned their duck headwear on Sunday, buying in fully to the Devlin Hodges experience at quarterback. It is the defense that has been the backbone of this team, however. The acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick looks better by the week, while the pass rush continues to create havoc.
Kyler Murray was under siege for large portions of last week’s game against the Rams; one can only imagine what the Steelers front seven will do to this Cardinals offensive line. Kliff Kingsbury will need to concoct a sensible game plan to get the ball out of Murray’s hands quickly to have any chance of stemming the yellow tide. Hodges showed some good chemistry with his receivers last week and should find ample opportunities downfield against the Cardinals. Jump on this line before it moves out beyond 2.5.
Pick: Pittsburgh
TENNESSEE (-3) at OAKLAND (Over/Under 46.5)
The Titans have strung together some excellent performances and find themselves on the cusp of the playoffs, tied with sixth seed Pittsburgh at 7-5. Of course, the division title is still in play as well, with two clashes with the Texans coming up. For that reason, you could forgive Tennessee for looking past the moribund Raiders, whose fate has changed dramatically in the space of a few weeks. The introduction of Ryan Tannehill into the line-up has imbued the whole team with a confidence that was severely lacking under Marcus Mariota’s stewardship. Momentum is with the Titans, and that is a powerful thing at this time of year.
The Raiders have demonstrated an ability to be feisty and play above their level of competition, however, and many will discount them in this game due to their recent struggles. But this clash represents a great spot, as home underdogs against a red-hot team, to prove the world wrong. The cries to bench Derek Carr, that Jon Gruden is in over his head and all the usual mumbo jumbo have started again in some circles, but this team is what it is: a street fighter that has the capability to play above itself in crunch time. Back the Raiders to spoil the party for Tennessee.
Pick: Oakland
KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 to -3) (Over/Under 50)
As if the first course of San Francisco at New Orleans wasn’t enough, the NFL has just plopped a massive cherry on top in the form of Chiefs at Patriots, a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship. These teams are at very different junctures to their last meeting, when offense ruled the day and defense was an afterthought. In this iteration, things could go the opposite way behind a resurgent Chiefs pass defense and a Patriots defense that needs no introduction.
Neither Patrick Mahomes II nor Tom Brady has been lighting the field on fire lately, with both star quarterbacks playing within themselves at times. For Brady, a crumbling offensive line and a patchwork skill position group have been the contributory factors; for Mahomes, the return from a serious knee injury and the defense stepping up, easing the burden on him. The weather is set to be cold, but not freezing, in Foxborough, so both passing games should be able to function. Betting against the Patriots at home is rarely the right move, but if this game turns into an arms race there will be only one winner.
Pick: Kansas City
(Sunday Night) SEATTLE (-2.5 to -1) at LA RAMS (Over/Under 47)
The Seahawks take a licking, but they somehow keep on ticking. Things look grim, and then within minutes, Russell Wilson has applied a salve to the wound as no other quarterback can. Cue Pete Carroll grinning like a Cheshire cat and yet another victory. The script is a familiar one at this point for Seattle – and it makes for good reading. If they can take care of business in their remaining games, they will take a first-round bye in the playoffs.
The Rams stand in their way, a team desperate to win to keep their slim playoff hopes afloat. An encouraging win over the Cardinals last week was quickly followed by criticism that they have yet to notch a ‘quality win’ when it counted most. There is no better chance than this against an old rival at home. Seattle’s defense is vulnerable – this we know – but can L.A. keep their foot on the pedal, and can Jared Goff outmuscle Wilson? The script is not yet written for the Rams, but it may be ripped up by the game’s end.
Pick: Seattle
(Monday Night) NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (-8.5) (Over/Under 47)
The Giants look like a ship adrift now, somewhere between irrelevancy and ineptitude, with a raft of offseason changes in the offing. Consistency has been the major sticking point; on weeks the offense performs, the defense can’t hold firm, and vice versa. Many fans point to Pat Shurmur; others, to the general manager, and some to a black cat that toddled onto the Meadowlands field a few weeks ago and seemingly ‘cursed’ the team.
Division rivals Philadelphia will be deflated after last week’s debacle in Miami, but they are not on the mat yet. If this team has any fight in them, they will turn on the style and take care of the Giants, a team so bereft of confidence that completely folding is within their range of outcomes – if the Eagles can get into the ascendancy. And yet Daniel Jones is fearless and will keep on swinging against a team that hasn’t earned our trust with their displays all season. The 8.5 points seem tasty here, so grab them. Being at home for Philly might be a hindrance more than a help.
Pick: New York
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Playoff places will be won and lost over the next few weeks, and time is running out for the teams on the bubble. Week 13 proved to be a mixed bag for yours truly, but there is no better way to bounce back than with a clean sweep. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 ATLANTA (-2) vs. CAROLINA
- 2 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
- 3 OAKLAND (+3) vs. TENNESSEE
- 4 BUFFALO (+6) vs. BALTIMORE
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 14 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- ATLANTA (-2)
- SAN FRANCISCO (+3)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM MONEY LINE BET (5-1 ODDS):
- OAKLAND (+125)
- SAN FRANCISCO (+130)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM UNDERDOGS SPECIAL SPREAD BET (5.16-1 ODDS)
- BUFFALO (+6)
- OAKLAND (+3)
- SAN FRANCISCO (+3)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: San Francisco, Oakland, Buffalo, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-9
- SEASON OVERALL: 100-92 (52.0%)
- BEST BETS: 25-24 (51%), last week 2-2
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 34-26 (56.6%), last week 2-3
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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