When it comes to picking out NFL tight ends for fantasy purposes, it does not take much to figure out who the top candidates are this season. If you are looking for some late value picks, however, you have come to the right place. What I want to find for all of us here are tight ends that should be getting several targets a game. With five or more balls headed their way each week, they should be able to haul in at least three on average and have a shot at 40-50 yards a week and possibly a touchdown. That may not sound like much, but that works out to be 48 catches and 640-800 yards a year, which would put any TE right near the Top 12 last season (provided he scored a few times). Not bad at all.
So what's the plan? I have looked at several different ways to pick up some valuable tight ends later in fantasy drafts before, but this time I am going to get a bit more scientific. Here I will take a look at an overall ADP list and pick out three different types of teams. Oddly enough, I care more about the wide receivers on a given team than about the tight ends. The reasoning is pretty simple - if the quarterback on a given team has limited options, the ball has to go somewhere. What better option than a big guy over the middle?
I broke the 32 NFL teams down and kept the ones that fit into three basic categories:
- Teams with no WRs in the Top 50 ADP List
- Teams with only 1 WR in the Top 30 ADP List
- Teams with 1-2 WRs in the Top 50 ADP List but none in the Top 30
Here are the results:
CATEGORY 1 - TEAMS WITH NO WRS IN THE TOP 50 ADP LIST
This may be surprising to some, but there are usually a few teams each year with absolutely terrible wide receiver options. This season has FOUR, which might be a record. Washington, Buffalo, Miami and Baltimore all fall into this group for 2019. The Bills do not have a clear option to target at the tight end position, but the other three teams could offer up some value. Let's break down each team's depth chart at the position:
Washington - Do you still believe in Jordan Reed? Dare you take him as a TE2 (ADP of TE17)? Can he stay healthy? Will the Washington offense be productive enough to make Reed a TE1 once again? Too many questions in my book, and too many other TE2s with TE1 upside to risk a pick on Reed.
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson is now firmly in place as the starting quarterback for the Ravens, and while he hit Andrews for a few big plays last season, Andrew's mid-TE2 ADP (TE19) may be more towards his ceiling than his floor. Andrews will have to share playing time - and targets - with 2018's first-round selection Hayden Hurst. There is not much upside in taking Andrews at TE19, even if he repeats his modest numbers (34-552-3) from last year. Hurst may actually be a better value, but his ADP keeps him on the waiver wire and out of nearly any draft format.
Miami - As typically happens with rookie tight ends, Mike Gesicki struggled in 2018 to be anywhere close to relevant as a fantasy tight end. Year 2 does not look much more promising, as the Dolphins look to be only competing for the first overall draft pick in 2020. With preseason reports describing Gesicki as having a disappointing offseason so far, Gesicki is an easy pass even at a very cheap (TE29) ADP.
Bottom line from Category 1: This group likely comes down to Jordan Reed to salvage any value, and the likelihood of that happening is not very high. Focus on the other groups for better prospects.
CATEGORY 2 - TEAMS WITH ONLY 1 WR IN THE TOP 30 ADP LIST
This group of teams is usually the largest group to consider each year, and 2019 is no different. With 15 different franchises falling in this category, we can pare it down a little by crossing off teams that have a top-notch tight end, since we are looking for value players here. So cross of Kansas City's Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz of the Eagles, Jared Cook of the Saints and also the Colts' Eric Ebron. All four tight ends are Top 10 options and are in the Top 75 picks in nearly every draft, so no bargains will be had from this group. Vance McDonald is a borderline consideration with a Round-8 ADP, but he also is a Top 10 tight end and cannot be legitimately considered a steal. On the other end of the spectrum, two teams - Seattle and Houston - do not have any tight end candidates with an ADP in the Top 30, so they can also be crossed off the list for consideration. That leaves eight teams from this group to dissect:
Dallas - Look who's back... No, not Rob Gronkowski, but another former Pro Bowler in Jason Witten. Dallas had a huge issue with tight end production last year, and Witten missed the action enough to step out of the announcer booth to suit up for one more year with the Cowboys. His upside remains limited after the catch, but if he hits anywhere close to his 2017 volume (63-560-5), he will be an every-week fantasy starter. Witten comes very cheap in drafts (ADP of TE23), and he can easily outperform that ranking.
Green Bay - Jimmy Graham enters his second season with Aaron Rodgers looking to reemerge as a Top 10 fantasy performer. Recent memory has depressed Graham's value, as last year - his first with Rodgers - was Graham's first season in the past eight that had Graham finish outside of the Top 4 tight ends (crossing off 2015, where he missed five games). The biggest factor was his lack of touchdowns with just two in 2018, a crazy-low number considering his 57 catches. Graham's TE18 ADP has him poised as a low-risk, high-upside TE2 candidate for 2019.
Detroit - Rookie tight ends rarely make a fantasy impact (if ever), so first-year starter T.J. Hockenson's ADP of TE16 could easily be an overvaluation. With so many other tight ends available as better value propositions, there is little need to take this level of risk on with your fantasy squad.
Chicago - Trey Burton returns as the starter, but two things are pushing his ADP down the charts. This past offseason Burton had sports hernia surgery, but he should be ready for Week 1 - but is very unlikely to see any preseason action. With Burton out, many are touting Adam Shaheen as a threat to Burton's production, and that could be just enough of a paper tiger threat to Burton's value to make him a steal of a pick as the top TE2 (ADP of TE13) this year.
Carolina - The question in Carolina at tight end is a simple one - does Greg Olsen have anything left in the tank? Olsen has rarely been available outside of the Top 10 picks in his illustrious career, and if he can reclaim the Pro Bowl form he had from 2012-2016 where he finished as a Top 8 tight end for all five seasons, Olsen will be a steal.
New England - The retirement of future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski leaves quite the void for the Patriots at tight end. Uncertainty abounds for New England, with Ben Watson and former Bronco Matt LaCosse vying for the starter role. Both are likely to see action but have limited upside, which is reflected in their low ADPs (TE26 and TE27). Rumors still persist for Gronkowski to make a comeback towards the end of the year, but that cannot be counted on - especially for a full fantasy season.
New York Jets - Chris Herndon looked like a candidate to move up from his high-end TE2 ranking (TE15 in 2018) from last year, but that has been squashed due to his four-game suspension for a DUI to start this season. Herndon could be a nice sleeper for the final 12 games for the Jets, but his current ADP (TE25) suggests he may be more of a waiver wire pickup candidate in most fantasy leagues.
Oakland - With the departure of Jared Cook, the tight end spot looked at first to be rather worthless for the Raiders this year. Not so fast, as there have been a number of reports that head coach Jon Gruden is enamored with Darren Waller, which is one of the reasons Oakland let Cook get away. The lesser-known veteran who spent most of his four-year career with Baltimore will start for Oakland and could be a steal for savvy drafters with one of the last picks of fantasy drafts this season.
Bottom line from Category 2: The back end of the TE1s offer some value, but the better options are to target valuable TE2s from this group. Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, Trey Burton, and even Jason Witten all have fantasy starter upside. Chris Herndon of the Jets is also worth stashing in deeper leagues or at least putting him on the waiver wire speed dial list to grab him once his suspension is up. Oakland's Darren Waller, with an ADP of TE30, could be the sleeper tight end of the year with one of the best upsides of any tight end outside of the Top 24 tight ends. The depth of TE2 (and a few TE3s) highlights how strong a committee approach could be for fantasy teams hitting on the right combination.
CATEGORY 3 - TEAMS WITH 1-2 WRS IN THE TOP 50 ADP LIST BUT NONE IN THE TOP 30
This group of teams is usually much smaller than Category 2, but in 2019 there are a number of teams in this category. Some are not even worth investigation such as the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars (neither team with a tight end in the Top 35), and two more have elite options (San Francisco and the New York Giants). That leaves two teams to discuss. Let's break each one down:
Tennessee - Delanie Walker returns as the starter for the Titans after suffering an unfortunate ankle fracture in Week 1 last year, costing Tennessee and quarterback Marcus Mariota one of their top receiving options. Since Mariota became the starter for Tennessee in 2015, Walker was a Top 6 tight end for three years before losing 2018 to injury. Walker averaged over 77 receptions, 898 yards and five touchdowns with Mariota across 2015-2017, and that average would have been good enough for a Top 5 tight end finish last season. Tennessee is still thin at the wide receiver position, with only Corey Davis projected to catch more than 50 passes for the Titans at wideout this year. The team is hoping rookie A.J. Brown can improve the group, but Walker is far more likely to finish 1-2 with Davis as the leading receivers for the Titans this season, making Walker a strong TE1 candidate and a great value pick.
Denver - The Broncos are rebuilding their passing game for 2019, starting with two new options at quarterback this year. Joe Flacco will start the year as the starter for Denver after concluding his 11th (and most tumultuous) season with Baltimore. The once-upon-a-time Super Bowl MVP was benched for Lamar Jackson as the Ravens have turned the page, and now Flacco will lead the Broncos at quarterback - until they decide that Drew Lock is ready to become the next attempt by Denver at having a franchise quarterback. Uncertainty abounds for the Denver offense across all of the skill positions, including tight end. Rookie Noah Fant will be the likely starter, and in an ideal world Fant and Lock will be a touchdown connection for the next decade - but not much should be expected for Fant in his first season. Tight end is one of the toughest positions to transition from college to the NFL, and Fant's ADP of TE21 reflects that minimalistic outlook.
Bottom line from Category 3: The value pick is far and away Delanie Walker, who can easily outperform his Round 10 ADP (TE12) this year.
If you are waiting this season to pick up a tight end later in your draft or even just looking for a good second (or third) option, take a longer look at the guys outlined here. Values exist at tight end outside of the Top 10 names that are going to go in the first half of your fantasy drafts, so do not overlook the later guys who can help your team get those extra points and win a few more games this year.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.