Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the eighth edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
It is hard to believe it is already Week 8. Suddenly the focus must change to the playoffs for fantasy football – and more importantly, building a team that can get you there. So whether you’re struggling or riding high, keeping a close eye on the match-ups can help you get there in a challenging IDP landscape.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.
|
Season
Average |
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
2016
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
|
2017
|
15.1%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
15%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
|
2018
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
|
2019
|
14.1%
|
2.42
|
5.24
|
37.2
|
14.1%
|
2.42
|
5.24
|
37.2
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
Arizona
|
15.7%
|
3.1
|
6
|
38.1
|
11%
|
3.3
|
4.4
|
40.3
|
|
Atlanta
|
10.6%
|
0.7
|
3.6
|
33.6
|
17.1%
|
2.7
|
7.6
|
44.3
|
|
Baltimore
|
17.1%
|
1.7
|
6.4
|
37.6
|
10.1%
|
2.4
|
3.4
|
34
|
|
Buffalo
|
13.9%
|
2.2
|
5.3
|
38.5
|
17.2%
|
2.7
|
6.3
|
36.8
|
|
Carolina
|
16.9%
|
4.5
|
7.5
|
44.3
|
11.8%
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
38
|
|
Chicago
|
13%
|
3
|
5.3
|
41.2
|
13.2%
|
2.5
|
5.2
|
39.2
|
|
Cincinnati
|
11%
|
1.3
|
3.4
|
31.3
|
12.6%
|
3.4
|
5.6
|
44.3
|
|
Cleveland
|
16.3%
|
3.2
|
5.7
|
34.7
|
11.5%
|
2.7
|
4.2
|
36.2
|
|
Dallas
|
14.2%
|
1.9
|
5.3
|
37.3
|
13.5%
|
2
|
4.9
|
36
|
|
Denver
|
12.1%
|
1.9
|
4.1
|
34.3
|
14.6%
|
3.4
|
5.3
|
36.3
|
|
Detroit
|
10%
|
1.7
|
4.2
|
41.8
|
12.2%
|
2
|
4.7
|
38.3
|
|
Green Bay
|
14.3%
|
2.6
|
5.3
|
36.9
|
11.5%
|
1.7
|
4.3
|
37.4
|
|
Houston
|
15.3%
|
2.4
|
6.4
|
42
|
16.7%
|
3
|
6.1
|
36.7
|
|
Indianapolis
|
14.8%
|
2.7
|
5.3
|
36
|
13.1%
|
1.2
|
4.7
|
35.7
|
|
Jacksonville
|
14.7%
|
3
|
5.7
|
38.9
|
11.6%
|
2.3
|
4.1
|
35.7
|
|
Kansas City
|
11.7%
|
2.9
|
4.6
|
39
|
11.5%
|
1.3
|
4.4
|
38.6
|
|
LA Chargers
|
15.6%
|
2
|
4.4
|
28.4
|
13.1%
|
1.9
|
5.4
|
41.4
|
|
LA Rams
|
13.2%
|
2.6
|
4.9
|
36.7
|
12.5%
|
1.7
|
5.3
|
42.3
|
|
Miami
|
10.3%
|
1.2
|
3
|
29.2
|
23.1%
|
4
|
9.2
|
39.7
|
|
Minnesota
|
14.5%
|
2.7
|
6
|
41.4
|
12.9%
|
1.7
|
3.7
|
28.7
|
|
New England
|
18.7%
|
3.7
|
7.1
|
38.3
|
11.4%
|
1.6
|
4.7
|
41.3
|
|
New Orleans
|
15.6%
|
3.4
|
6.1
|
39.3
|
9.9%
|
1.1
|
3.6
|
36.1
|
|
NY Giants
|
15.4%
|
2.6
|
5.1
|
33.4
|
18.7%
|
2.9
|
7.6
|
40.6
|
|
NY Jets
|
14.7%
|
1.2
|
5.8
|
39.7
|
21.9%
|
4.3
|
7.7
|
35
|
|
Oakland
|
10.3%
|
1.7
|
3.7
|
35.5
|
6%
|
1.3
|
2
|
33.3
|
|
Philadelphia
|
15.9%
|
2.4
|
6.1
|
38.7
|
14.3%
|
1.9
|
5.3
|
37
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
18.5%
|
3.3
|
7.2
|
38.8
|
6.7%
|
0.8
|
2.2
|
32.5
|
|
San Francisco
|
18.4%
|
3.3
|
5.7
|
30.8
|
13.6%
|
1.3
|
4
|
29.3
|
|
Seattle
|
7.3%
|
1.6
|
2.7
|
37.3
|
17%
|
2.4
|
6
|
35.3
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
13.3%
|
2.2
|
5.8
|
43.8
|
19.2%
|
4.2
|
7.8
|
40.8
|
|
Tennessee
|
13.5%
|
2.7
|
5.1
|
38
|
22.5%
|
4.4
|
7.6
|
33.7
|
|
Washington
|
13%
|
2.3
|
4.7
|
36.3
|
17.5%
|
2.6
|
5.9
|
33.4
|
Strong Matchup
Weak Matchup
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Pittsburgh pass rushers vs. Miami offensive line
Pittsburgh’s defense has averaged pressure on 18.5% of dropbacks this year, recording 3.3 sacks and 7.2 quarterback hits per game. All these numbers bode well for a team that may have to rely on that side of the ball if they are to have any chance of an improbable playoff berth in January. The AFC remains wide open, so anything is possible.
Indeed, anything is truly possible when the Dolphins come to town. Mason Rudolph will return for Pittsburgh this week, giving their offense a jolt as they go to work on the hapless visitors. Brian Flores’ team battled bravely in Buffalo, but the Steelers tend not to cede much ground in primetime match-ups. T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, and the Steelers defensive backs have extra appeal this week, with big plays likely to come.
Key stat: The Dolphins have allowed 20 sacks at home compared to just four on the road. Just two of their six games have been on the road.
Jacksonville pass rushers vs. New York Jets offensive line
The Jets have allowed pressure on 21.9% of dropbacks this season, a number skewed by the fact Luke Falk started multiple games. However, it has to be acknowledged just how poorly Sam ‘I See Ghosts’ Darnold dealt with pressure last week – and you can bet Jacksonville’s players will be watching that film with glee (the coaches tape, not the viral video of Darnold’s admission).
Jacksonville’s defense is averaging four sacks per game at home and figures to have the edge against a porous Jets line that is prone to lapses. Expect the Jaguars defensive coordinator Todd Wash to cook up some pressure schemes to keep Darnold thinking and not playing. This is a prime cut as far as match-ups go. Until the Jets can show that they can successfully combat the blitz, teams will pummel them.
Key stat: The Jets offensive line has allowed 7.7 quarterback hits per game (league average is 5.24).
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Kansas City pass rushers vs. Green Bay offensive line
Stability along the offensive line can be a real trump card in the NFL. The Packers have that in spades, providing Aaron Rodgers with a platform to pick apart defenses. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been anything but stable as a pass rush. Kansas City’s defense has averaged just 2.9 sacks and 4.6 hits on quarterbacks per game, decent numbers but nothing to get too fearful over for the Packers coaching staff.
With the Packers sitting as 4.5-point road favorites, the likelihood is that they will be able to get the game on their script and run the ball to kill the clock. That will mean fewer pass-rushing opportunities for a defense that hasn’t shown the ability to consistently rush the passer. It all adds up to a Green Bay win – and a clear red light on the Chiefs.
Key stat: The Chiefs defense has averaged pressure on just 11.7% of opponent dropbacks (league average is 14.1%).
|
Season
Average |
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
2016
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
|
2017
|
49.6
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.9%
|
49.7
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.7%
|
|
2018
|
50
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
50.1
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
|
2019
|
50.1
|
25.2
|
37.2
|
62.4
|
40.4%
|
50.5
|
25.2
|
37.2
|
62.4
|
40.4%
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
Arizona
|
54.6
|
27
|
38.1
|
65.1
|
41.4%
|
52.4
|
25.3
|
40.3
|
65.6
|
38.6%
|
|
Atlanta
|
53.4
|
29.9
|
33.6
|
63.4
|
47.1%
|
50.6
|
18.1
|
44.3
|
62.4
|
29.1%
|
|
Baltimore
|
41.9
|
18.9
|
37.6
|
56.4
|
33.4%
|
58
|
35.3
|
34
|
69.3
|
50.9%
|
|
Buffalo
|
46.3
|
22.8
|
38.5
|
61.3
|
37.2%
|
50.7
|
26.8
|
36.8
|
63.7
|
42.1%
|
|
Carolina
|
53.3
|
24.5
|
44.3
|
68.8
|
35.6%
|
50
|
25.7
|
38
|
63.7
|
40.3%
|
|
Chicago
|
54.7
|
25.3
|
41.2
|
66.5
|
38.1%
|
47.8
|
20.8
|
39.2
|
60
|
34.7%
|
|
Cincinnati
|
55.4
|
34.4
|
31.3
|
65.7
|
52.4%
|
46.3
|
18.3
|
44.3
|
62.6
|
29.2%
|
|
Cleveland
|
53.5
|
29
|
34.7
|
63.7
|
45.5%
|
44
|
22.5
|
36.2
|
58.7
|
38.4%
|
|
Dallas
|
47.3
|
22.1
|
37.3
|
59.4
|
37.3%
|
55.3
|
29.3
|
36
|
65.3
|
44.9%
|
|
Denver
|
48.1
|
25.4
|
34.3
|
59.7
|
42.6%
|
50.7
|
25.7
|
36.3
|
62
|
41.5%
|
|
Detroit
|
52.5
|
27.3
|
41.8
|
69.2
|
39.5%
|
51.2
|
26.5
|
38.3
|
64.8
|
40.9%
|
|
Green Bay
|
49.1
|
25.9
|
36.9
|
62.7
|
41.2%
|
48.9
|
24
|
37.4
|
61.4
|
39.1%
|
|
Houston
|
49.3
|
20.1
|
42
|
62.1
|
32.4%
|
53.3
|
27
|
36.7
|
63.7
|
42.4%
|
|
Indianapolis
|
47.8
|
22
|
36
|
58
|
37.9%
|
53
|
29.5
|
35.7
|
65.2
|
45.3%
|
|
Jacksonville
|
48.3
|
23.7
|
38.9
|
62.6
|
37.9%
|
49.7
|
27.1
|
35.7
|
62.9
|
43.2%
|
|
Kansas City
|
55
|
29.3
|
39
|
68.3
|
42.9%
|
45.9
|
20.4
|
38.6
|
59
|
34.6%
|
|
LA Chargers
|
48.9
|
27.1
|
28.4
|
55.6
|
48.8%
|
48.9
|
20.7
|
41.4
|
62.1
|
33.3%
|
|
LA Rams
|
51.7
|
27.1
|
36.7
|
63.9
|
42.5%
|
50.7
|
23.9
|
42.3
|
66.1
|
36.1%
|
|
Miami
|
53.2
|
32.7
|
29.2
|
61.8
|
52.8%
|
44
|
20
|
39.7
|
59.7
|
33.5%
|
|
Minnesota
|
52.4
|
23.6
|
41.4
|
65
|
36.3%
|
51.4
|
30.9
|
28.7
|
59.6
|
51.8%
|
|
New England
|
39
|
17.7
|
38.3
|
56
|
31.6%
|
56.1
|
28.4
|
41.3
|
69.7
|
40.8%
|
|
New Orleans
|
46.9
|
21.1
|
39.3
|
60.4
|
35%
|
50.7
|
25.4
|
36.1
|
61.6
|
41.3%
|
|
NY Giants
|
53.7
|
29.9
|
33.4
|
63.3
|
47.2%
|
47.3
|
21.1
|
40.6
|
61.7
|
34.3%
|
|
NY Jets
|
53.2
|
27.2
|
39.7
|
66.8
|
40.6%
|
43
|
20
|
35
|
55
|
36.4%
|
|
Oakland
|
47.7
|
23.2
|
35.5
|
58.7
|
39.5%
|
52.5
|
27.5
|
33.3
|
60.8
|
45.2%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
49.7
|
23.4
|
38.7
|
62.1
|
37.7%
|
50.3
|
27
|
37
|
64
|
42.2%
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
55.7
|
28.5
|
38.8
|
67.3
|
42.3%
|
42.5
|
21
|
32.5
|
53.5
|
39.3%
|
|
San Francisco
|
40.5
|
22
|
30.8
|
52.8
|
41.6%
|
57.8
|
37.3
|
29.3
|
66.7
|
56%
|
|
Seattle
|
45.1
|
21.3
|
37.3
|
58.6
|
36.3%
|
54.7
|
29.9
|
35.3
|
65.1
|
45.8%
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
51.5
|
22.8
|
43.8
|
66.7
|
34.2%
|
51.3
|
25.2
|
40.8
|
66
|
38.1%
|
|
Tennessee
|
49.1
|
23.3
|
38
|
61.3
|
38%
|
49.6
|
26.4
|
33.7
|
60.1
|
43.9%
|
|
Washington
|
56.3
|
29.9
|
36.3
|
66.1
|
45.1%
|
56.3
|
20.7
|
33.4
|
54.1
|
38.3%
|
Strong Matchup
Weak Matchup
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
Cleveland defenders at New England
Stadium TVO rank: 2nd (1.248)
The Patriots home stat crew has been generous this season, an equal and opposite force, if you will, to the New England defense, which has been stingy and just downright mean to opponents. It is quite something to watch a defense dominate so completely in a modern NFL that is so predicated on passing and high-flying downfield plays. The Patriots have taken the NFL’s ball and burst it, so to speak.
The Browns will be the latest victims, but there is plenty of tackle value to be mined from this situation. The stat crew in Foxborough hands out solos at the second-highest rate in the league (91.6%), increasing the value of a Cleveland defense that will be on the field early and often. The Browns defense has faced 29 rush attempts per game, an area New England will try to exploit. The Patriots offense averages 56.1 tackle opportunities allowed per game; it all points to a bonanza for the Browns’ main tacklers.
Key stat: The Patriots average 28.4 rush attempts per game (league average is 25.2).
Atlanta defenders vs. Seattle
Stadium TVO rank: 3rd (1.243)
The Falcons will roll out Matt Schaub as the starting quarterback this week as Matt Ryan recovers from an ankle injury. If Falcons owner Arthur Blank thought the crowds were thin before, it is about to get a tad worse. Schaub doesn’t exactly scream ‘bums in seats’. Atlanta’s defense is lacking cohesion in a huge way, leading to busted coverages and missed assignments. The Dan Quinn era is dangerously close to ending, to put it bluntly.
Seattle doesn’t seem like a team that will take this task lightly just because Schaub is starting, however. The Seahawks will stick to what works: a punishing ground attack. They have run the ball on 45.8% of their offensive plays (league average is 40.4%) and allow 54.7 tackle opportunities per game. The TVO factor in the Georgia Dome is one of the best in the league, a number that should bode well if you are plugging and playing any Atlanta defenders.
Key stat: Seattle ranks sixth in tackle opportunity allowed, though the number drops from 54.7 to 51.3 from home to road.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
New York Giants and Detroit defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 29th (1.086)
The Giants are still finding their feet with Daniel Jones at quarterback. The result has been an inconsistent offense; at times, Jones has flung balls downfield and dropped them into a bucket for his receivers, while at others he has thrown balls right to defenders. The inconsistency of the New York offense makes them a volatile and dangerous asset to play with – especially from a defensive perspective.
In truth, the Lions have one of the poorest home stat crews when it comes to TVO, putting a cap on the upside of the defensive assets in this game. Throw in the fact that Detroit just lost Kerryon Johnson to injured reserve and we are likely to see a more pass-centric offensive approach, which will limit tackle opportunity. Fade this game if you have better options.
Key stat: The Lions average 51.2 tackle opportunities allowed per game as an offense.
Los Angeles Rams defenders vs. Cincinnati
Stadium TVO rank: 33rd (London – 0.961)
The third London clash of the season takes place this week, with the locals being treated to a Cincinnati meltdown at the hands of the L.A. Rams. The Bengals offense has been where tackle opportunity goes to die this season, with the unit averaging just 46.3 tackle opportunities allowed per game and just 18.3 rush attempts.
The downside is massive here for the Rams, with the only solace being that big plays could be in the offing, especially considering how charitable Andy Dalton has been with the football. Relying on big plays is dicey, however, and the Bengals are unlikely to turn into a juggernaut overnight. A change of scenery won’t change the fact that this is a poor tackle match-up that should be avoided at all costs.
Key stat: The Bengals run the ball on just 29.2% of their plays, well above the league average of 40.4%.
Best of luck with Week 8 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
