IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 7

David Larkin's IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 7 David Larkin Published 10/17/2019

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the seventh edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

We are now at about the halfway point of the fantasy season, but whether you are riding high or in the depths of despair it is important to remain humble. Stick to the weekly process and the rewards will come in time. That goes especially for selecting match-ups. Prognosticating the production of defensive players can be tricky in a league bent on subpackages and game-specific assignments, but stay the course.

Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.

Season
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
2016
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
2017
15.1%
2.33
5.49
36.5
15%
2.33
5.49
36.5
2018
15%
2.5
5.56
37
15%
2.5
5.56
37
2019
14.3%
2.46
5.35
37.5
14.3%
2.46
5.35
37.5
Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
Arizona
13.4%
2.3
5
37.3
11.6%
3.5
5
43.2
Atlanta
11.2%
0.8
3.7
32.8
16.2%
2.3
7.3
45.3
Baltimore
16.7%
1.8
6.2
36.8
10.6%
2.7
3.8
36.2
Buffalo
13.3%
2.4
5.2
39
17.6%
2.8
6.8
38.6
Carolina
16.9%
4.5
7.5
44.3
11.8%
2.7
4.5
38
Chicago
13.5%
3.4
5.6
41.6
14.5%
2.6
5.2
35.8
Cincinnati
11.9%
1.2
3.7
30.8
12.8%
3.7
5.7
44.2
Cleveland
16.3%
3.2
5.7
34.7
11.5%
2.7
4.2
36.2
Dallas
13.8%
1.7
5.3
38.7
14%
1.8
5.2
37
Denver
12.4%
2
4.3
34.8
13.3%
2.5
4.7
35.2
Detroit
10.1%
2
4.4
43.4
13.1%
2
4.8
36.6
Green Bay
16.3%
3
6.2
37.8
11.7%
1.8
4.5
38.3
Houston
14.6%
2.7
6.2
42.2
16.8%
3
6.2
36.7
Indianapolis
14.5%
2.6
5.2
35.8
11.6%
1.2
4
34.6
Jacksonville
15.4%
3.2
5.8
37.8
12.5%
2.3
4.5
36
Kansas City
10%
1.8
3.8
38.3
11.7%
1.3
4.7
39.8
LA Chargers
15.6%
2
4.3
27.8
13.1%
2
5.5
41.8
LA Rams
11.4%
2.2
4.2
36.5
13.2%
2
5.7
43
Miami
9.5%
1
2.8
29.4
24.3%
4.6
9.8
40.4
Minnesota
15.6%
2.8
6.3
40.5
13.8%
2
3.8
27.8
New England
20.4%
4.2
8
39.2
12.3%
1.8
5
40.7
New Orleans
17.4%
3.7
6.3
36.5
9.8%
1.2
3.5
35.7
NY Giants
16.6%
2.7
5.8
35.2
17%
2
6.8
40.2
NY Jets
16.6%
1.4
6.4
38.6
24.9%
5
8.8
35.4
Oakland
10.5%
1.8
3.8
36.2
7.1%
1.6
2.4
33.8
Philadelphia
16.6%
2.3
6.7
40.2
13.9%
1.7
5.3
38.3
Pittsburgh
18.5%
3.3
7.2
38.8
6.7%
0.8
2.2
32.5
San Francisco
18.2%
3.4
6.2
34
13.1%
1.2
4
30.6
Seattle
7.5%
1.7
3
40
16.6%
2.7
5.7
34.2
Tampa Bay
13.3%
2.2
5.8
43.8
19.2%
4.2
7.8
40.8
Tennessee
13.7%
3
5.2
37.8
23.5%
4.8
8
34
Washington
12.6%
2.3
4.8
38.5
17.4%
2.5
6.3
36.5

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit

San Francisco pass rushers at Washington

The 49ers pass rush is just getting warmed up. A dominant performance against the Rams that saw the usually proficient Jared Goff finish with fewer than 100 yards passing should have gotten the attention of the league. If not, the 49ers – who apply pressure on 18.2% of dropbacks – will make their point loudly and clearly this week in the nation’s capital.

The Washington offense has been a facsimile of an NFL attack for the past few weeks, putting on a show with smoke and mirrors without establishing any consistency. The Trent Williams-sized hole on the left side of their offensive line remains a major pain point. The Redskins have surrendered 6.3 quarterback hits per game, while the 49ers have hit the passer 6.2 times per game. It all adds up to a perfect formula for Kyle Shanahan’s team to thrive.

Key stat: The Redskins line has allowed pressure on 17.4% of dropbacks, with the league average at 14.3%.

New England pass rushers at New York Jets

There is still life for the New York Jets, especially if they can somehow pull off this victory in prime time. Sam Darnold played a solid game last week, reanimating the corpse that was the team’s offense for the first few weeks. The young quarterback will have to be at his sharpest against the Patriots, whose head coach knows a thing or two about shutting down and flustering inexperienced passers.

The game plan for the Patriots is like an amoeba, constantly shifting its form and keeping offenses on edge. A rotating cast of characters has made the Patriots pass rush difficult to pin down for fantasy purposes but hitting on the right player here could be fruitful. The Jets offense has given up pressure on 24.9% of dropbacks, though it should be noted the poor play of Luke Falk had a large bearing on that number. The Patriots should be able to get this game on their script and feast.

Key stat: New England leads the league in pressure applied percentage, getting home with a sack, hit or hurry on 20.4% of opponent dropbacks.

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid

Houston pass rushers at Indianapolis

Despite facing 42.2 dropbacks per game (average is 37.5), the Houston pass rush hasn’t been able to catch fire. The unit averages pressure on just 14.6% of dropbacks, which isn’t anything to be too frightened by for the Colts. The momentum is firmly with the Texans at this moment, however, so another dollop of Deshaun Watson magic could create a game script to hunt.

The Colts should not be glossed over, however. Granted, they are not a ‘sexy’ team like their division rivals, but Frank Reich’s roster is strong – and deep. Indianapolis has been very stingy as a pass-rushing match-up, giving up pressure on just 11.6% of dropbacks. Jacoby Brissett’s quick release and a strong offensive line and ground game have set the table for that winning formula. It could stifle the Texans this week.

Key stat: The Indianapolis offensive line is allowing just 1.2 sacks per game.

Season
Team Defense
Team Offense
Tackle
Opportunity
Rush Atts
Faced
Drop Backs
Faced
Offensive
Snaps Faced
Rush
Percentage
Tackle Opps
Allowed
Rush
Attempts
Drop
Backs
Offensive
Snaps
Rush
Percentage
2016
50
25.3
37.8
63.1
40.1%
50
25.3
37.8
63.1
40.1%
2017
49.6
26.1
36.5
62.6
41.9%
49.7
26.1
36.5
62.6
41.7%
2018
50
25.1
37
62.2
40.5%
50.1
25.1
37
62.2
40.5%
2019
50.2
25
37.5
62.5
40%
50.6
25
37.5
62.5
40%
Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Tackle
Opportunity
Rush Atts
Faced
Drop Backs
Faced
Offensive
Snaps Faced
Rush
Percentage
Tackle Opps
Allowed
Rush
Attempts
Drop
Backs
Offensive
Snaps
Rush
Percentage
Arizona
55
27.8
37.3
65.2
42.7%
52.7
23.7
43.2
66.8
35.4%
Atlanta
52.5
28.8
32.8
61.7
46.8%
52.2
18.8
45.3
64.2
29.4%
Baltimore
41
17.7
36.8
54.5
32.4%
60.7
35.8
36.2
72
49.8%
Buffalo
44.8
21.4
39
60.4
35.4%
52.6
27.6
38.6
66.2
41.7%
Carolina
53.3
24.5
44.3
68.8
35.6%
50
25.7
38
63.7
40.3%
Chicago
54.2
23.8
41.6
65.4
36.4%
48.8
23.6
35.8
59.4
39.7%
Cincinnati
54.7
33
30.8
63.8
51.7%
46.7
18
44.2
62.2
29%
Cleveland
53.5
29
34.7
63.7
45.5%
44
22.5
36.2
58.7
38.4%
Dallas
47.3
21.2
38.7
59.8
35.4%
54.5
28.2
37
65.2
43.2%
Denver
48.3
25.3
34.8
60.2
42.1%
50.7
26.5
35.2
61.7
43%
Detroit
51.4
26
43.4
69.4
37.5%
51
27.8
36.6
64.4
43.2%
Green Bay
48.3
25.2
37.8
63
39.9%
49.3
24.7
38.3
63
39.2%
Houston
49
19.5
42.2
61.7
31.6%
53.8
27.5
36.7
64.2
42.9%
Indianapolis
47.4
21.6
35.8
57.4
37.6%
53.4
30.6
34.6
65.2
46.9%
Jacksonville
49
24.3
37.8
62.2
39.1%
48
24.5
36
60.5
40.5%
Kansas City
55.7
30.7
38.3
69
44.4%
45.7
19.5
39.8
59.3
32.9%
LA Chargers
48
27
27.8
54.8
49.2%
49.3
20.7
41.8
62.5
33.1%
LA Rams
53.5
29.3
36.5
65.8
44.6%
49.3
21.8
43
64.8
33.7%
Miami
55.6
34.6
29.4
64
54.1%
42
18
40.4
58.4
30.8%
Minnesota
52.5
24.2
40.5
64.7
37.4%
50.3
30.3
27.8
58.2
52.1%
New England
40.3
17.5
39.2
56.7
30.9%
55
27.8
40.7
68.5
40.6%
New Orleans
47.5
23.5
36.5
60
39.2%
49.7
24.2
35.7
59.8
40.4%
NY Giants
54.2
29
35.2
64.2
45.2%
46.5
21
40.2
61.2
34.3%
NY Jets
51.2
26.2
38.6
64.8
40.4%
45.4
20.2
35.4
55.6
36.3%
Oakland
48
23.8
36.2
60
39.7%
52.2
27
33.8
60.8
44.4%
Philadelphia
48
21.3
40.2
61.5
34.7%
50.8
26.8
38.3
65.2
41.2%
Pittsburgh
55.7
28.5
38.8
67.3
42.3%
42.5
21
32.5
53.5
39.3%
San Francisco
41
21.2
34
55.2
38.4%
58.8
37
30.6
67.6
54.7%
Seattle
45.7
19.5
40
59.5
32.8%
56
30.5
34.2
64.7
47.2%
Tampa Bay
51.5
22.8
43.8
66.7
34.2%
51.3
25.2
40.8
66
38.1%
Tennessee
49.7
23.7
37.8
61.5
38.5%
48.8
26.2
34
60.2
43.5%
Washington
56.8
28.3
38.5
66.8
42.4%
56.8
19.8
36.5
56.3
35.2%

Tackle Match-ups to Exploit

New York Giants and Arizona defenders

Stadium TVO rank: 1st

The Giants and Cardinals both rank among the top 10 teams in terms of pace of play, a statistic that is rarely cited but is tremendously useful. No matter how this game script pans out, the speed at which both teams snap the ball – for Arizona, an average of a play every 24.01 seconds; for the Giants, 26.49 – will produce plenty of tackle opportunity.

The stadium TVO factor is ranked as the league’s best, just to throw another cherry on top of this IDP points sandwich we’re cooking up. All the stars are aligning here to set up a bonanza of tackle production from both teams. Arizona’s offense has been highly efficient, while the Giants offense is likely to see the return of Evan Engram and, perhaps, even Saquon Barkley. Load up on players from this game.

Key stat: The Arizona offense ranks fourth in the league with an average of 25.5 pass completions per game, a positive metric for tackle production.

Seattle and Baltimore defenders

Stadium TVO rank: 4th

The treats just keep on coming for hungry IDP enthusiasts starved of points. The Seahawks have been a fantastic match-up for opposing defenses when it comes to tackle production. The Russell Wilson-led attack averages 56 tackle opportunities allowed along with 30.5 rushing attempts per game. Look across the field and Baltimore’s offense has been similarly charitable, running the ball on 49.8% of their plays. For perspective, the league average is 40%.

The clash of Lamar Jackson and Wilson, facing inferior defenses who will have problems containing them, is a recipe for an explosion of points. The defenses may not have much bearing on the outcome of this game, but they will certainly be worked and worked often. Shoehorn IDPs from this game into your line-ups.

Key stat: Baltimore’s offense has allowed a whopping 60.7 tackle opportunities per game.

Tackle Match-ups to Avoid

New Orleans defenders at Chicago

Stadium TVO rank: 28th

Whether it is Chase Daniel or Mitchell Trubisky under center for the Bears this week, it may not matter one iota for tackle production. The Bears offense has averaged just 23.8 rush attempts per game and remains an inconsistent unit capable of massive blow-ups or horrific implosions. The Saints defense, meanwhile, has seen a below-average 47.5 tackle opportunities per game, not surprising considering how dominant they have been.

The TVO factor at Soldier Field is not conducive to standout tackle performances from key defensive players. A game script where one team gets out to a comfortable lead, allowing them to run the ball often, could yield a decent tackle day from one or two players, but it is a risk not worth taking.

Key stat: Chicago’s offense has averaged just 48.8 tackle opportunities per game, down on the league average of 50.6.

Detroit and Minnesota defenders

Stadium TVO rank: 21st

Vegas projects this to be a tight game between bitter rivals, so a one-sided affair is on the low end of the probability spectrum. A close game, therefore, will lend itself to a balanced approach from both teams and unpredictable tackle production. The Vikings, it should be noted, are a run-heavy team and may have to lean on their ground game against a tough Detroit secondary. The Lions defense averages 51.4 tackle opportunities per game, middle of the road.

The TVO factor here isn’t prohibitive by any means, but with so many promising match-ups to sink our teeth into this week, there is no reason to go too far off the radar. In a game that is difficult to call – Kirk Cousins’ inconsistency being a major factor – it is wiser to fade it completely.

Key stat: Minnesota’s offense has averaged 30.3 rush attempts per game compared to the league average of 25.

Best of luck with Week 7 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.

If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
IDP DB DL LB Stats Saquon Barkley Jacoby Brissett Kirk Cousins Chase Daniel Sam Darnold Evan Engram Jared Goff Lamar Jackson Mitch Trubisky Deshaun Watson Russell Wilson
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