FPC and the Action Scoring Rule

By studying the rules of both the FFPC and the FPC along with some of the history and previous performances by FPC players, insights can be found that will help many players to not only compete well in both contests but also to be in a position to win their league and be in the running for a top prize in the championship round.

As the summer rolls on, articles such as this will continue analyzing many aspects of the Footballguys Players Championship and the Fantasy Football Players Championship. The hope is that with analyzing these rules, players will gain a better understanding of how to best build a top-notch fantasy team within the contest. It is extremely important to fully understand how every possible advantage and extra edge can be captured, as those benefits can make all the difference in the world.

ACTION SCORING

Under the microscope this time around is the special Action Scoring Rule for position players. According to the rules of the Footballguys Players Championship, the scoring rules for Action Scoring are implemented as follows:

The FPC Lineup & Scoring Explained:

• ‘Action’ Scoring – All offensive players will receive points if they score a TD, whether by punt/kickoff return, playing defense, from a fumble recovery, etc. We feel it is fair to reward the fantasy owner that has that player. A player like Devin Hester or Leon Washington may become a valuable starter thanks to this rule addition.

So how do you analyze the impact of this additional scoring rule to the current crop of potential fantasy players? We need to dig into some numbers.

First, let's take a look at the 2018 production for kick returners (kickoffs and punts). Listed in Table 1 are all the NFL players who had at least seven kick returns of either type last year (with a special thanks to Doug Drinen's Pro-Football-Reference.com for the data):

Table 1: 2018 NFL Kick Returners (Minimum Ten Returns)

Note – the threshold for listing in Table 1 has gone back to at least 10 kick returns, the number used as the standard prior to 2016. In the prior two seasons (2016 and 2017), two returners found the end zone despite having fewer than 10 kick returns, so they were included. That trend (amongst others) just shows how little of an impact kick returns are having in fantasy production. Now, a few things can be observed from this list. First, there are plenty of return men that are being utilized across the NFL. Just like in the past five seasons, at least 63 players had 10 or more returns (65 in 2014 and 2015, 70 in 2016, 63 in 2017 and 69 last season) and 14 had 20 or more, which is the lowest number of players across that same period (37 in 2017, 30 in 2016, 42 in 2015 and 43 in 2014). Another important fact is that several of these specialists are not only non-starters for several teams, but they are also non-offensive players. That really will not help FFPC fantasy teams.

The other item to pick up on here is that roughly 20-25 of these players are draftable fantasy players (highlighted in Table 1). That's the good news here - these are the players that might benefit from Action Scoring this season. Unfortunately, there is also a bit of bad news. Let's break all the news down a bit.

The first downside to this list is that several of these players are moving up the depth charts of their teams this year. Why is that a bad thing? Well, take Tyler Lockett or Tarik Cohen for example. Few franchises will ever want to risk a high upside starting wide receiver (or running back) as a kick returner. The added workload and the increased risk of injury are both too great a price to pay for potential yardage gains. Teams take a more conservative approach over 90% of the time and put a lesser talent back there, especially for kickoffs. (It is also worth noting that Odell Beckham just missed inclusion in Table 1 with nine returns – again pointing that teams will only risk a star athlete with a punt return opportunity under special circumstances).

The other piece of bad news is that yardage does not matter in Action Scoring - only touchdowns make any impact to the fantasy scores. Table 2 shows that only 12 total returns (seven punt returns and five kickoffs) were taken all the way for the score last year – less than one per NFL week. That number was the lowest since this article started tracking this total back in 2009. That speaks to the continued trend in the NFL to minimize the return game, especially on kickoffs. The NFL moved the kickoff line to the 35-yard line prior to the 2011 season, and since that season only 61 touchdowns have been scored on a kickoff return - or about eight a year. That is more than a 50% cut of the numbers in the prior two seasons (2009 had 18, 2010 had 23) before the rule change.

Speaking of rule changes, 2016 had another kickoff rule change, and it turned out to be significant. Kickoff touchbacks (not punts) are now brought out to the 25-yard line, not the 20-yard line. Those five yards may not sound like much, but it can be meaningful for some teams, especially late in close games or in the final minutes of the first half. Some teams may try and use a "mortar kick", where the kicker pops the ball up as high as he can and tries to pin the team near the goal line rather than trying to put it into the end zone. That trend is likely to continue again in 2019.

Table 2 summaries the numbers for the past 10 years:

Table 2: 2009-2018 Kick Return Touchdowns

**In 2011, the NFL moved the kickoff line from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line.

Table 3 summarizes the players that found the end zone via a kick or punt return last year:

Table 3: 2018 NFL Kick/Punt Return Touchdowns

Based on the results, it becomes clear just how rare a kick return for a touchdown is these days. Further, only two players found the end zone more than once in 2018 – Andre Roberts of the Jets and Jakeem Grant of the Dolphins. This is similar to 2017, where only Jamal Agnew of the Lions scored more than once with a kick return of any kind. The prior six seasons (2011-2016) had 3-4 players score on kick returns more than once, with only five players – Tyreek Hill (3 in 2016), Darius Reynaud (3 in 2012), Jacoby Jones (3 in 2012), Patrick Peterson (4 in 2011) and Devin Hester (3 in 2011) scoring more than twice over that six-year period. To say that kick return touchdowns are waning is an understatement. The NFL continues to look to minimize these plays, despite their occasional explosive and exciting results, due to the dangerous nature and resultant concussions. Many more players (nine in 2010, six in 2009) scored before the NFL's rule change back in 2011. There is at least a little bit of good news - one of these players is worthy of a high draft pick this season, Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs. He is already considered a Top 50 pick, but this does boost some of his value in kick return friendly leagues such as the FPC. While his ADP is high, some of that current value may not reflect this extra boost potential. A few other players may see more chances than others on this list, so be sure to check on kick and punt returner depth charts to possibly find that extra upside in a later round pick. Looking at the table overall, there is not much point in considering anyone else for a considerable Action Scoring boost - even if a player gets an extra touchdown on the season.

PARTING THOUGHTS

Every fantasy league and its rulebook is a little different. For the FPC and the FFPC, the addition of Action Scoring may seem at first to have very little impact on the scores overall, but in certain circumstances, it can impact several players' values. Key return men that are expected to be solid picks such as Tyreek Hill should get a little bit of a boost to their overall ADP thanks to this extra touchdown (or a few) per season. Even Antonio Brown, Tarik Cohen, and Odell Beckham Jr get minimal bumps here despite many expectations that they will not be returning kicks much longer. Rest assured that if it is just before halftime or towards the end of a close game, any of these players may find himself back there to field that key kickoff or punt return.

The tricky part of evaluating the rest of the kick returners comes after these first four or five guys are off the board. Corey Coleman and Tavon Austin are decent backups, but can they really be relied upon as spot starters? They are certainly worth drafting and if injuries or bye weeks hit, and their clutch performances may give lucky owners an advantage in just the right week thanks to the Action Scoring added value. While they are not worthy of big bumps up the draft board, their added value as return men with a history of touchdowns should be a nice tiebreaker if someone is deciding between Coleman, Austin or another running back or wide receiver.

The last comment is more of a warning - do not be surprised if a few of these players see fewer kick return chances as they develop into regular offensive starters. Alvin Kamara and Tyreek Hill are both likely to be replaced by depth players to give them both a rest and less chance of getting hurt. Keep that in mind if you are factoring in kick return value to a particular player. Turnover at both kick return spots can be quite high.

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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