You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Ryan Hester's trendspotting
In the Now #Trending section of Ryan's popular feature, he compares "how teams have performed on a raw 'fantasy points against' basis over the past five weeks vs. how they performed prior to that [five-week period].
Ryan does this for each position looking ahead to Week 15's contest. I share my thoughts about his analysis at the end of this section.
Now #Trending
In this section, we're comparing how teams have performed on a 'raw fantasy points against' basis over the past five weeks vs. how they performed prior to that.
| vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
| Team | Last 5 | Prior | Delta | Opponent |
| San Francisco 49ers | 31 | 2 | -29 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Denver Broncos | 28 | 3 | -25 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Dallas Cowboys | 27 | 5 | -22 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 | 15 | -15 | Oakland Raiders |
| Indianapolis Colts | 23 | 10 | -13 | New Orleans Saints |
"Last 5" = Fantasy Points per Game ranking to the position in the last 5 weeks
"Prior" = Fantasy Points per Game ranking to the position prior to that
"Delta" = Prior-Last 5 (negative numbers imply a defense getting worse; positive imply a defense improving)
Commentary and Action Items
Don't be scared of Patrick Mahomes II just because of the Denver matchup. The Broncos have yielded 265 or more passing yards in four of their last five games after doing so zero times prior. And Denver has allowed 39.0 rushing yards per game to the last four mobile quarterbacks they have faced (not counting games against Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins).
| vs. Running Backs | ||||
| Team | Last 5 | Prior | Delta | Opponent |
| New Orleans Saints | 25 | 4 | -21 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 32 | 16 | -16 | Oakland Raiders |
| Houston Texans | 31 | 15 | -16 | Tennessee Titans |
| Minnesota Vikings | 20 | 5 | -15 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 12 | -9 | Carolina Panthers |
Commentary and Action Items
If the Oakland running back situation provides clarity prior to Sunday, either Josh Jacobs or DeAndre Washington are solid plays. If Jacobs starts or if Washington starts with Jacobs inactive, either would be an RB2 play in season-long leagues. Washington would garner cash game consideration in DFS if Jacobs sits.
Houston's recent troubles align with Derrick Henry's surge.
Derrick Henry over the last month:
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 9, 2019
23/188/2
19/159/2
26/149/1
18/103/2
That’s 6.97 (!!) yards per carry in this beast-mode span.
Henry is on fire and can't be ignored as the main touchdown scorer in what has been an elite offense over the past seven weeks. Henry is a no-doubt RB1 in season-long leagues but more of a GPP play in DFS due to his big-ticket price and some similarly-projected players (such as Carson, for example) at lower prices.
Both Chargers' backs are in play vs. Minnesota. The Vikings slide includes last week's game against a lowly Detroit team, meaning their "Last 5" number could be worse had they played an average opponent last week.
| vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
| Team | Last 5 | Prior | Delta | Opponent |
| Denver Broncos | 23 | 3 | -20 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Indianapolis Colts | 30 | 10 | -20 | New Orleans Saints |
| Dallas Cowboys | 19 | 2 | -17 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Chicago Bears | 20 | 6 | -14 | Green Bay Packers |
| Miami Dolphins | 27 | 15 | -12 | New York Giants |
Commentary and Action Items
Davante Adams could be an intriguing play this week. He's coming off a stinker where he was "cash game safe," and he's facing a Chicago team that appears difficult but is trending down lately.
The Rams receivers look attractive against Dallas. Note that Cooper Kupp only played 20 snaps (29%) last week, while Woods played 69 of 70.
The Giants have a promising matchup as they host Miami this week. The return of Sterling Shepard was supposed to relegate Darius Slayton to afterthought status, but the Giants have been employing many three-receiver sets in the past three weeks.
In addition to the solid usage shown below, Slayton has outproduced his veteran teammates. Here are the trio's stats in the last three games, shown on a per-game basis to account for Tate's missed Week 13.
- Shepard - 4.0 receptions, 27.7 yards, 0.3 touchdowns
- Tate - 2.0 receptions, 22.0 yards, 0.5 touchdowns
- Slayton - 5.0 receptions, 83.3 yards, 0.7 touchdowns
| Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Total | |||||||||||||
| Player | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | ||||
| Sterling Shepard | 95.0% | 26.5% | 22.2% | 85.1% | 18.9% | 23.8% | 92.3% | 24.1% | 21.2% | 90.5% | 23.0% | 22.4% | ||||
| Golden Tate | 83.3% | 20.6% | 31.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.5% | 17.2% | 30.3% | 53.6% | 12.0% | 19.9% | ||||
| Darius Slayton | 85.0% | 20.6% | 23.0% | 94.0% | 24.3% | 28.2% | 80.8% | 27.6% | 48.1% | 87.2% | 24.0% | 33.5% | ||||
"Snap %" = percentage of team snaps played
"Tgt %" = percentage of team targets thrown to that player
"AirYd%" = percentage of team air yards thrown to that player