This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup:
WR A.J. Brown (TEN vs HOU):
This week is all about finding games that matter. Tennessee needs a win or losses by the Steelers and Colts to make the playoffs this season. That makes this a huge game for the Titans. The Texans have already won the division and have a very small chance of changing their playoff seed. Brown torched this defense to the tune of 8 catches, 114 yards, and a touchdown in week 15. He should see a lot Gareon Conley in coverage and will be running free all over the field. Brown has a great chance to extend his hot streak to close out the regular season.
WR Breshad Perriman (TB vs ATL): Bonus: Justin Watson:
Despite the struggles of Jameis Winston turning the ball over, this offense can move the ball no matter who lines up at wide receiver. Atlanta’s defense has played better in recent weeks, but Perriman and Watson should have a field day like they did last week against Houston. With no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin again in week 17, Perriman and Watson will see the bulk of the work again. Perriman had over 100 yards receiving last week with double-digit targets and Watson had the important touchdown and double-digit targets. Perriman will be the higher owned player with big play capability, but Watson is a nice sleeper to work into your lineup if Perriman isn’t there.
WR Kenny Golladay (DET vs GB):
Sometimes you have to just make lemonade out of lemons and that is exactly what Golladay is doing with David Blough at quarterback. Golladay has an impressive streak of games against the Packers where he has scored or gone over 100 receiving yards in the past 3 contests. He burned this defense back in week 6 with Matthew Stafford under center and this time gets to take them on at home. The Packers have already wrapped up the division and are only playing for seeding at this point. Golladay had 12 targets and ended up with 66 yards and a touchdown against a tough Denver defense last week. Look for him to close out his break out 3rd season with a bang this week.
WR Golden Tate (NYG vs PHI):
With Darius Slayton potentially sidelined this week with a knee injury and the Eagles being without Ronald Darby, Tate has a great chance to be featured this week. Saquon Barkley stole all of the thunder last week, but this offense showed signs of like with Daniel Jones back. Tate had 6 catches on 11 targets for 96 yards last week with Slayton out and should see similar volume this week. Slayton burned the Eagles in week 14 with 5 catches for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns. That production has to go somewhere, and Tate is in the best position to take it.
WR Hunter Renfrow (OAK vs DEN):
Normally we try and avoid Chris Harris and the Denver defense, but Renfrow was just too good last week against the Chargers to ignore this week. He had 7 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in his first full game back and made Derek Carr look like a better quarterback. With Josh Jacobs banged up and the Raiders having a very small chance at the playoffs they will be airing the ball out to attack this defense. His catches and yardage were season highs for him last week and hopefully he will build on that in an effort to end the season on a high note.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs OAK):
On the flip side of Renfrow we have Sutton for Denver who is finishing up his most productive season as a pro. He has not had the best stat lines in the past few weeks, but the Raiders have struggled against perimeter receivers this season giving up 13 touchdowns and the 5th most fantasy points. If Drew Lock gets enough time, he should be able to get the ball down field to Sutton and end the season on a high note for Denver.
TE Dallas Goedert (PHI vs NYG):
The Eagles need a win to make the playoffs and they will be without several of their key wide receivers. Zach Ertz is still banged up from last week and Goedert filled in admirably with 9 catches, 91 yards, and a touchdown. With no one else to throw to for Carson Wentz, look for Goedert to have several targets and a similar line to last week. If he can hold on to the ball this week, he may be one of the better tight end plays overall.
Unfavorable Matchup:
WR Adam Thielen (MIN vs CHI):
There was plenty of excitement surrounding the return of Adam Thielen to the Vikings offense, but something seems to just not be right still. He was held without a catch on Monday Night Football against the Packers despite having 4 targets. The Vikings will most likely still be resting Dalvin Cook for the playoffs and Chicago has not been friendly to opposing receivers. Even when healthy earlier in the year, Thielen had just 2 catches for 6 yards against this Chicago defense. The Vikings are locked into the playoffs and could very well rest some of their ailing starters to be healthier for the wild card round.
WR Cooper Kupp (LAR vs ARI):
With the Rams officially eliminated from playoff contention, they have nothing to play for in week 17. There are reports that they may rest some of their starters and see what they have in some of their backups. Kupp has limped to the end of the season with the emergence of Robert Woods in the offense. His only saving grace has been a string of touchdowns in recent weeks. This would normally be a great matchup, but with the Rams potentially resting starters and Kupp losing targets to Woods it is time to keep Kupp on the bench this week.
WR T.Y. Hilton (IND vs JAX):
It has been a tough season all around for Hilton. He saw his starting quarterback retire before the start of the season, suffered through several of his own injuries, and watched any hopes of the playoffs go out the window with the Colts offense not performing. Jacksonville’s defense is susceptible to the run and has been stingy against the pass. Look for the Colts to run the ball 40 times this week and potentially even rest a banged-up Hilton with their eyes towards the 2020 season.
WR DeVante Parker (MIA vs NE):
Betting against the 2019 comeback player of the year has been a dangerous thing to do this season, but Parker has one of his toughest matchups of the year this week. He takes on a New England defense that held him without a catch earlier in the season and for a team that finds itself in a tough spot in the draft order. Miami has gone from the predicted #1 overall pick to potentially the 5th pick. They simply have relied on Parker and won too many games down the stretch. New England has a lot they need to get right before the playoffs and may take out some of that aggression on Miami this week.
WR Curtis Samuel (CAR vs NO):
The Saints have come out and said they are not resting anyone in the final game of the regular season and that will prove to be tough for Samul and Will Grier. Even with D.J. Moore potentially out with a concussion it is not a great matchup for the boom or bust Samuel. He has been touchdown dependent all season and the Saints defense will be looking to plug its holes and make a statement in the final week of the regular season. The volume may be there this week, but it will be buyer beware with Grier under center this week.
WR Christian Kirk (ARI vs LAR):
Even with the Rams having nothing to play for, Kirk is a risky bet this week. His ankle looked to be bothering him last week and he had just .9 fantasy points. A matchup with Jalen Ramsey is never one you want to bet on, and Kirk should be firmly planted on your bench this week. Larry Fitzgerald would be a better bet in what may be one of his last games. Stay away from Kirk this week unless you want to get burned.
TE Mike Gesicki (MIA vs NE):
It is easy to see what he did last week against the Bengals and try to chase the points. Gesicki’s 26.1 points were a career high but the Patriots have allowed an average of about 10 points per game and 3.9 catches to opposing tight ends. DeVante Parker is not a great bet against that defense this week and neither is Gesicki.
