DraftKings GPP Domination: Conference Championships

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Despite just two games being played this Sunday, DraftKings is still running huge tournaments, including the NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which pays $1 million to first-place. Finding edges on a slate with so much roster overlap between entries is hard, but not impossible. As usual, it starts with game-scripting and leveraging projected ownership.

With those two goals in mind, let’s get to the games and the players with the best chances of helping you win a GPP. Thanks to everyone for reading this year.

Titans @ Chiefs

Game Script

If someone had told you before the season Ryan Tannehill would be facing off with Patrick Mahomes II in the AFC championship, how would the game have played out in your head? While plenty has changed since Week 1, don’t be so quick to abandon your priors. The Titans have been extraordinarily lucky. They got past the Patriots despite scoring on only two offensive drives and all of their points against the Ravens came following turnovers. Patrick Mahomes II is back to playing at an otherworldly level and is unlikely to provide the Titans defense with many openings to be opportunistic. Handing off to Derrick Henry 30+ times is a luxury Tennesee shouldn’t be afforded in this matchup. Tannehill will be forced to prove his efficiency hasn’t been a fluke and he’ll finally fail in front of a hostile crowd at Arrowhead Stadium.

High Exposure Plays

Patrick Mahomes II ($7,700) - Mahomes is the mega-chalk on this slate but he’s also by far the most likely quarterback to appear in first-place lineups. When Kansas City lost at Tennesee in Week 10, Mahomes piled up 446 passing yards and three touchdowns (32.84 DraftKings points) despite missing the previous two games with a dislocated knee cap and being down two starting offensive linemen. Game theory is the only reason to consider a fade, but Mahomes’ median projection is roughly 40% higher than the next closest quarterback. Lock him into at least half your lineups and differentiate elsewhere.

Tyreek Hill ($7,200) - Maybe we’ll get a slight ownership discount on Hill after three consecutive games with five or fewer targets and last week’s Travis Kelce eruption? Despite the lack of recent production, Hill remains the most dangerous wide receiver in the game and the ultimate high-variance, high-ceiling GPP option. Hill posted season highs of 11 receptions and 157 receiving yards against Tennessee in Week 10. The Titans struggled to defend alpha-dog wide receivers all season and Hill’s speed presents a clear mismatch for most of their corners. Anything short of at least one reception of 40+ yards and a touchdown would be a letdown in this spot.

Damien Williams ($7,000) - DraftKings corrected Williams’ price, making him a little harder to trust this week. But if we’re operating under the assumption the Chiefs are going to roll over the Titans at home, the touchdown-dependent Williams is once again set up nicely for multiple scores. Anyone who worried Andy Reid was resting LeSean McCoy for the playoffs got dunked on by Williams in the Divisional Round. He played on 97% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps, handled all of their rushing attempts, received six targets out of the backfield, and scored three total touchdowns, giving him six over the previous three games. Williams’ rushing upside might be capped by Tennesee’s solid defensive front, but his usage in the receiving game and at the goal-line makes him worthy of a minimum 40% exposure.

Jonnu Smith ($3,400) - On a slate featuring Travis Kelce and George Kittle, punting tight end is the clearest path to creating a unique lineup. Assuming the Titans are forced into a (relatively) pass-heavy game script, Smith, who played on 95% of Tennesee’s snaps last week, should see four-to-five targets. In addition to quietly being one of the most athletically gifted tight ends in the league, Smith’s matchup makes him an excellent tournament option. Opponents targeted their tight end on 148 pass attempts against the Chiefs this season, the second-highest total in the league.

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Packers @ 49ers

Game Script

Something about Aaron Rodgers as a 7.5-point underdog in a playoff game doesn’t feel right. Rodgers showed last week he’s still plenty more than a game manager when he needs to be. The 49ers defensive line presents a difficult matchup -- one Rodgers struggled with as recently as Week 12 when he passed for a paltry 104 yards on 33 attempts in Green Bay’s 37-8 drubbing at the hands of San Francisco. The Packers will get back starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga this week. Bulaga missed last week’s game with an illness and played only nine snaps when the two teams met in Week 12. Assuming Bulaga’s return means Rodgers will get better protection than he did in the previous meeting between these teams, he should be able to keep Green Bay in this game. Lost in the 49ers easy win over Minnesota last week was the fact Jimmy Garoppolo played poorly, completing only 58% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt. Much like the Titans and Tannehill, San Francisco won’t be able to hide Garoppolo if they expect to beat a team with a solid defense and superior quarterback. Look for the Packers to cover the spread and possibly win outright.

High Exposure Plays

Aaron Rodgers ($6,100) - As of this writing, Rodgers is projected to be the lowest-owned quarterback on the slate, according to Steve Buzzard’s projections. The chances he outscores Mahomes, given the quality of their respective opponents, are not good. But is Mahomes seven times more likely than Rodgers to help you win a GPP, as their ownership projections imply? Not when he costs $1,600 more and comes at a fraction of the ownership. Rodgers scored at least 28 DraftKings points in 25% of his regular-season games. If Green Bay pulls the upset, the upside for 300 yards and three touchdowns exists.

Davante Adams ($7,900) - Adams has failed to reach double-digit targets once since Week 3 and has eclipsed 22 DraftKings points in each of his last four games. If his ownership projection sticks at ~30%, look to double the field. Due to Adams’ WR1 price tag and the premium salaries of Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and Damien Williams, Kansas City stacks run back with Adams won’t be too common. The 49ers aren’t an easy matchup for enemy wide receivers but Adams is a bonafide target hog and should avoid Richard Sherman’s side of the field on at least one-third of his routes. He’s right there with Hill as the most likely wide receiver to lead the slate in scoring.

Deebo Samuel ($5,500) - Going back to last week’s busted chalk is usually a good idea in tournaments. Samuel, who was the highest-owned wide receiver in last week’s Milly Maker at 42%, qualifies after posting a yawn-inducing 7.8 DraftKings points in the Divisional Round. But Garoppolo only had to throw 19 passes against the Vikings and Samuel was targeted on a team-high six attempts. All the reasons the crowd was eager to use Samuel last week still exist, only now he gets to face off with the weak link in Green Bay’s secondary -- Kevin King -- on the majority of his routes. Per Pro Football Focus, no cornerback on the slate has allowed more yards per route covered than King’s 1.87.

George Kittle ($5,800) - Kittle doesn’t need a great matchup to be one of your top exposures on a two-game slate, but he gets one against the Packers. Green Bay ranked 30th in pass success rate allowed to enemy tight ends during the regular season. They had no answer for Kittle in Week 12 (6-6-126-1) and there is no reason to believe anything will change in this game. Look for Kittle to account for a massive share of Garoppolo’s passing production. If the 49ers go to the Super Bowl, they’ll likely have their superstar tight end (and their frightening defensive line) to thank.

Green Bay Packers ($2,400) - If you believe the Packers have a chance in this game, the price is right for their defense. Green Bay exceeded a 4x multiple of their current salary in 38% of their regular-season games, which more than doubles their ownership projection. As mentioned previously, Garoppolo looked shaky last week and now he has the pressure of being a heavy home favorite to win the NFC championship in his second career playoff start. A candidate to make a sloppy throw (or two) in any given game, Garoppolo is the best quarterback to target with a defense on the slate.

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