A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very lain a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Mike Davis, Chicago
Will Grant: For about five minutes, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen were Chicago’s version of Thunder and Lightning this season. Then the Bears drafted David Montgomery and Davis disappeared from everyone’s draft board. Maybe Montgomery steps into the #2 slot behind Cohen, but rookie running backs sometimes stumble out of the gate. The Bears signed Davis hoping he’s fill in for Jordan Howard. If Davis continues to build on his 2018 season or Montgomery struggles making the transition to the NFL, Davis will be excellent value as a late-round flyer pick.
Andy Hicks: When 50 running backs are being taken ahead of a guy that is likely to start for an NFL team on opening weekend, you know you have a value selection. There will be all kinds of talk about the third-round rookie David Montgomery, but third-round rookie running backs generally have flaws that quite often take a while to correct, sometimes a season or two. That makes the free-agent addition by Chicago of Mike Davis incredibly important. Davis was strong for Seattle last year when required and his dependable production will be vital for the start of the season. We’ve seen numerous times, like Ronald Jones last year in Tampa Bay, where a rookie just cannot get it together and the veteran plays all year. Davis could be one of those guys in 2019.
Jeff Pasquino: While everyone is wondering how the Bears will split their backfield duties up with three options (Davis, Tarik Cohen, and rookie David Montgomery), it is often the best idea to take the cheapest option of a two- or three-headed backfield and hope for the best. Davis is a great value as he is getting overlooked in favor of both Cohen and the rookie, but all Davis has to do to garner a significant portion of the workload is to hold off the rookie. Davis did this exact same thing when he was in Seattle, holding off Rashaad Penny, so if he can produce similar numbers in Chicago he will be a steal.
Jason Wood: The Bears backfield is a riddle right now, but hopefully training camp and the preseason begin to untangle a three-headed monster of uncertainty. We can presume Tarik Cohen’s role as the change-of-pace back, and receiver on third downs is secure, which leaves a substantial role on 1st and 2nd down (and at the goal line) for either Mike Davis or rookie David Montgomery. If Davis gets the job, he's grossly under-drafted. If Montgomery gets the job, Davis’ ADP makes sense. If it’s a timeshare, both are worth rostering, but you’ll have to be smart about how you slot them into your lineups. Davis proved in Seattle he can produce when given enough touches in a game script, and at his current price, he’s worth the lottery ticket until we get clarity in a month or two.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Chase Edmonds, Arizona
Phil Alexander: Clear backup running backs in high-octane offenses like Carlos Hyde and Ito Smith start coming off the board in the early double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts. It makes no sense Edmonds isn't given the same consideration, even by those predicting a huge leap in offensive plays for the Cardinals. If Kliff Kingsbury gets his way, Arizona will run about 70 plays per game. Even with David Johnson getting workhorse touches, Edmonds will be called upon for six to eight touches per game. And if Johnson were to get hurt, Edmonds is an agility freak who would tilt leagues as the lead-runner in a paced-up offense.
James Brimacombe: The Arizona Cardinals offense is one of the most fascinating fantasy discussions this offseason and it feels like as long as you are a starter in the offense you might be in line for a breakout type of season. With Edmonds, you get a late-round, very talented second-year running back that if anything were to happen to David Johnson in front of him he could jump right into the role and excel. Even if Johnson remains healthy all season it looks as though Edmonds will still see the field.
Daniel Simpkins: Edmonds is the cheapest of the injury handcuffs, and this offense will be tailored to what he does best, which is catching passes. It’s easy to imagine that if David Johnson got dinged up, Edmonds would be used to approximate Johnson in a check-down role while the rest of the receivers stretch the field. He would be a priority addition for fantasy general managers if this scenario plays out.
Darwin Thompson, Kansas City
Ryan Hester: Two key ingredients in the recipe for a good sleeper, especially at running back, are a logical path to opportunity and a high-end offensive scheme. Damien Williams is the most proven running back on the Kansas City depth chart, and he hasn’t played his 2019 projected role for the entirety of a season. So the path could clear for Thompson due to performance or attrition. And any running back with a clear path to touches in an Andy Reid system quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes II is someone fantasy managers should note. If Thompson were the clear starter for any week this season, he’d likely be projected in the top-16 at running back that week. That’s worth a late-round pick and a bench stash.
Justin Howe: Thompson didn’t produce much over one year at Utah State, but he landed in a great fantasy situation. There’s a ton of usage, efficiency, and touchdown opportunity in play in Kansas City, and his competition is relatively light. The team trusts Damien Williams as its lead dog now, but he’s 27 without much of a track record – he’d never topped 364 scrimmage yards in a season before last year. Behind Williams, only Carlos Hyde looms as an option, and he looks like a poor fit here. Hyde isn’t much of a receiver, and he’s managed to flame out as a runner for three teams over the past calendar year or so. Thompson could rise quickly to the No. 2 role, which is a terrific floor for such a late-round dice roll. And his ceiling is Williams’ late-2018 production, which would be deep-fried fantasy gold.
Matt Waldman: The Chiefs have labeled Thompson a playmaker based on his receiving skill and open-field work this spring, and it's why he deserves your attention. He's a short runner with quickness and speed who can pull through wraps and push larger defenders backward. He's a player to watch because based solely on their college tape Thompson is a more dynamic player than Damien Williams. If Thompson plays to his potential early, he could push Williams for playing time—and Andy Reid has a history of using committees if he lacks a dynamic feature back.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay
James Brimacombe: Everyone has Aaron Jones pegged as the running back to own in Green Bay and his ADP reflects that by a mile. The fact still remains that both Jones and Williams will split carries in this offense but with both players ADP it seems as though the split will be 80-20 in favor of Jones. In reality, that number might be closer to a 60-40 split and if so Williams should easily outperform his ADP. You also get the clear handcuff if anything were to happen to Jones, Williams would be the player to own.
Drew Davenport: As everyone pounds the table for Aaron Jones, Williams quietly went out and produced when called upon near the end of the year for the second straight year. He continues to be the preferred running back in pass protection situations, and the coaching staff has said that Williams will still be involved despite the clamoring for Jones. For a running back competing with an oft-injured starter in an explosive offense, it remains to be seen why Williams is still so low on most people's draft boards. He will continue to play a role in the Green Bay backfield and, as a result, is ready to crush his ADP as it stands today.
Jason Wood: Williams is out of favor thanks to Aaron Jones’ gaudy 5.5 yards per rush average and his touchdown output in the second half of 2018. While it’s possible Jones wins the job outright, new head coach Matt LaFleur has made no guarantees. LaFleur saw limited success calling plays in Tennessee last year, but the lone bright spot was Derrick Henry running wild once LaFleur committed to him. If there’s a back no the Packers roster capable of mimicking Henry, it’s Williams. Williams’ fantasy value is by no means guaranteed, but he’s coming at a price that discounts the worst-case scenario.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Giovanni Bernard, Cincinnati
Jeff Pasquino: Bernard seems to get overlooked every year, but there is much to like about his situation entering 2019. Bernard is the clear backup to Joe Mixon, and Mixon is viewed as a Top 10-20 running back (second-round pick) as the season approaches. Cincinnati is revamping their offense with new head coach Zac Taylor, and while Mixon may dominate snaps, Bernard should certainly see enough action as his direct backup to warrant a late fantasy draft pick. Bernard has been a capable understudy in the past with some upside should he need to fill in for Mixon. The depth chart is also very unproven behind Bernard with two late-round rookies and a UDFA from 2018 rounding out the list. Bernard is worth even more in PPR leagues with 35+ receptions the past three seasons, but his biggest upside is based on becoming the clear starter should anything happen to Mixon.
Matt Waldman: Bengals beat writers expect Bernard to earn 13-15 touches per game and for Bernard and Joe Mixon to see the field at the same time in this Rams-influenced offense. Still a highly-skilled option, Bernard has fantasy RB2 upside if Mixon gets hurt and a current floor as a flex-play, Whenever Bernard has played at least 13 games during a season, he’s been no worse than a top-36 runner. The Bengals have an improving offensive line, a promising scheme, and the surrounding talent for Bernard to deliver efficient fantasy production this year—and at a low cost to fantasy players.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo
Andy Hicks: One of the more interesting rookies this year is Devin Singletary, who is projected to play little behind veteran backs in LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, and T.J. Yeldon. Yeldon will be more a depth option, who has skills as a third-down back. McCoy has deteriorated noticeably in the last couple of seasons, as you would expect a 31-year-old back to do. What is interesting about McCoy though is that he can be cut with a seven million dollar saving on the salary cap. He is in the final year of a very expensive contract and if Singletary is ready, be prepared for a shock cut. Frank Gore is the wildcard as he has been on the wind-down for almost 10 years. Ultimately I would expect one or both of Gore and McCoy to not make the final roster, providing Singletary can look like an NFL player during camp. Severely underrated going into all draft formats.
Dan Hindery: Late-round running back selections are typically reserved for handcuff backs who need an injury to the starter to have any real fantasy value. Singletary is the rare player with a late-round ADP and a realistic path to fantasy relevance without any injuries. Drafted near the top of the third round, Singletary is flying under the radar due to the depth of the Bills backfield. He shared first-team reps in OTAs with LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore, who are 31 and 36 years old, respectively. It isn’t hard to imagine McCoy and Gore showing their age and Singletary simply winning the job outright by the midway point of the season. Singletary should have the freshest legs late in the season and is the only back on the current roster likely to have any long-term future in Buffalo. If the Bills fall out of playoff contention, there is no reason not to give Singletary an extended audition as the lead back late in the season.
Dexter Williams, Green Bay
Andy Hicks: Normally we shouldn’t be getting too excited about a sixth-round rookie running back, but the situation is very important. A new coaching group didn’t add a significant runner in free agency and only took Dexter Williams in the draft. It will be up to Williams to prove he belongs in the NFL and can play ahead of an average guy in Jamaal Williams or even more excitedly ahead of the more favored, at least in fantasy ratings, Aaron Jones. He could fail to take his chance, but few backs in his situation have been gifted an opportunity like this.
Dwain McFarland: Given the lackluster performance of Jamaal Williams last season there is a chance that Dexter Williams overtakes the backup running back role. New head coach, Matt LaFleur, brings a potent running scheme based in concepts from Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. This offense has legitimate top-six upside if things go well between Aaron Rodgers and LaFleur. That makes Williams a worthwhile handcuff play late in drafts.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Bruce Anderson, Tampa Bay
Ryan Hester: The depth chart in Tampa is crowded, but it’s not filled with locks. Second-year player Ronald Jones disappointed as a rookie. And Peyton Barber is solid but unspectacular. With a new coach in the fold, players from the prior regime may not be afforded the comfort of having a clear spot on the depth chart. Speaking of that new coach, Bruce Arians is exactly the kind of coach whose system is worth your late-round fantasy bets. If Anderson earns a role by performance or attrition, Arians can make him fantasy-viable. He also has a three-down skill set, as our own Matt Waldman rated him the number-four passing-down specialist in his Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
Malcolm Brown, LA Rams
Jason Wood: Rookie Darrell Henderson is the toast of the fantasy community, which makes Malcolm Brown a gem to target in the final rounds of drafts. The Lions signed Malcolm Brown to an offer sheet, and the Rams promptly matched it. That’s not the move of a front office who views Brown as an afterthought. While Henderson could be a fantasy star if Todd Gurley’s knee acts up, it’s just as likely Brown gets the call. C.J. Anderson was a star last year in place of Gurley, and Brown isn’t any less talented than the journeyman. Drafting Henderson in the sixth or seventh round means he has to be the handcuff to turn a profit. Drafting Brown at the end of your draft means he’ll cost you nothing if he’s not the handcuff, but will generate incredible value if he does win the role.
Gus Edwards, Baltimore
Justin Howe: There are a lot of strikes against Edwards’ fantasy potential. He’s a low-investment guy in a crowded backfield, and he’s not involved at all in the passing game. Those are great reasons to bump him down a draft board, but not this far. Edwards broke out last year as the perfect grinder for the Ravens’ “run it 45 times a game” attack, consistently churning forward and creating yardage. Mark Ingram comes to town with a bevy of his own issues, and rookie Justice Hill is more receiver than runner. Edwards is an intriguing candidate to top 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns for fantasy players – and to do so from the final 3-4 rounds of a draft. Even without receiving numbers, that would be dynamite RB3 value so late.
Jalen Richard, Oakland
James Brimacombe: Richard will never be a running back that you can expect 15+ touches a game out of and that is even more clear now with the high draft selection of Josh Jacobs. What he can give you though is some spike weeks with some big PPR production. He only averaged 25 snaps per game in 2018 and still ended as RB41 as he had 10 weeks with at least 8.4 fantasy points.
Jordan Scarlett and Elijah Holyfield, Carolina
Jeff Pasquino: A bit of a cheat, but the takeaway in this is that this backup spot is worth monitoring. Scarlett was drafted in the 5th round, and Holyfield was an undrafted free agent. Christian McCaffrey was a Top 10 back last year and the outlook for this season is similar. McCaffrey was first viewed as a question mark when he entered the league for durability, but in 2018 he was on the field for over 90% of the offensive snaps. It stands to reason that Carolina will look for better backups to McCaffrey, and if he were to miss significant time both rookies should add value. If forced to pick only one, Scarlett’s skill set is a better drop-in replacement for McCaffrey, but his workload as a rookie would not come near 90% of the snaps. Look for both rookies to see plenty of preseason action.
