A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 7 Votes
Derek Carr, Oakland
James Brimacombe: Carr has five full seasons under his belt with finishing as the 20th, 15th, 14th, 20th, and 18th ranked fantasy seasons. There is nothing spectacular in those numbers but entering 2019 he arguably has the best talent around him than what he has had the previous five seasons. With Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Josh Jacobs all added to the offense his passing touchdowns of 19 from a year ago should drastically increase.
David Dodds: Derek Carr set career highs in passing yards (4,089), completion percentage (68.9), and yards per attempt (7.32) despite playing with a subpar group of pass-catchers in 2018. The Raiders were active in free agency adding offensive line strength (Trent Brown) while significantly improving the pass catchers (Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams). With a defense that looks to be one of the worst in the league, Derek Carr should have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball this season.
Will Grant: Oakland deserves to be mocked after the train-wreck they had for the 2018 season. But a solid rookie running back and new blood at wide receiver, including Antonio Brown, and the Raiders should have plenty to be excited about this season. No, I’m not taking Carr as my starter, but in leagues where quarterbacks fly off the board, Carr is a guy who always seems to be there in the late rounds. He’s worth a pick that late for sure, and could become a spot-starter by the middle of the season.
Jeff Haseley: Derek Carr finished as QB9 after Week 12 last year and now he has Antonio Brown and a young eager running back in Josh Jacobs. Carr is an ideal QB3 in superflex leagues and he's worth monitoring for others. Most leagues he'll go undrafted, but there is potential for him to outperform his ADP and perhaps be a mid-late season waiver claim. Carr has 121 career touchdown passes with only 53 interceptions (+68), which is pretty impressive. He has never missed more than one game in a season and has never exceeded 13 interceptions in any year.
Dwain McFarland: Carr quietly posted his best yardage and yards per attempt season of his career in 2019. Unfortunately, he posted his lowest touchdowns per attempt. What nearly no one is talking about though is his pace of 4,755 yards before the Amari Cooper trade. Enter Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Josh Jacobs. You could make the argument that no quarterback in the league received as much of an upgrade over the offseason. Carr lands at the bottom of this list because he struggles tremendously with pressure. Over the past two seasons, he has six touchdowns and 17 interceptions when pressured. When kept clean, he is elite – 35 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Chad Parsons: Carr was an on MVP-level path before injury late in 2016. The past two seasons have featured a lack of weapons and a clear disconnect with his lead receiver Amari Cooper, who has since been traded to Dallas. This offseason revamped the wide receiver corps with all-world Antonio Brown plus speed-enabled Tyrell Williams in the top positions. Oakland also drafted two-way running back Joshua Jacobs in Round 1. Carr is set up for success for the first time in a few seasons as he is on a warm, if not hot, seat to deliver as Carr's contract turns cut-friendly next offseason.
Jeff Pasquino: This one seems pretty easy here, as Carr is getting a Top 5 wide receiver in Antonio Brown added to his bag of tricks. Defenses will not be able to key on the passing game as rookie Josh Jacobs should do enough in his first campaign to keep the opposition honest. Carr may have lost Jared Cook to New Orleans, but the addition of Tyrell Williams on the other side of Brown along with reports that TE Darren Weller is making a big impression as he enters his second year in Oakland. Carr finished as a Top 15 quarterback in both 2015 and 2016, and now he has enough talent around him to finish at least that high, which makes him an attractive QB2 with QB1 upside in favorable matchups.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Matthew Stafford, Detroit
David Dodds: Matthew Stafford's season was the tale of two halves. He started the season strong recording 2,111 passing yards and 14 touchdowns through his first 8 games. The Lions then proceeded to trade Golden Tate and Marvin Jones missed the last six weeks with a knee injury. And in mid-June, we now know that Stafford played the ending weeks of the season with a broken back. All that could go wrong did and his current ADP reflects a worst-case scenario for the Lions quarterback.
Clayton Gray: This one is pretty simple. In the last eight seasons, Stafford has been a top-10 quarterback six times. Last season went about as bad a possible for him. He lost receivers and suffered a broken back. That's probably not going to happen again, so it's perfectly reasonable to expect Stafford to perform like a starting fantasy quarterback in 2019. At worst, he'll be an excellent backup for you.
Andy Hicks: After years of consistent fantasy production, Matthew Stafford did not adapt well to the new coaching staff at all. His passing yardage and touchdowns fell off a cliff, although surprisingly his completion percentage remained intact. It has recently been reported though that Stafford played with multiple broken bones in his back, which explains quite a lot. He is good enough to resurrect his career if the team has improved around him. Kenny Golladay looks like a future pro bowler, T.J. Hockensen was drafted high and Marvin Jones is consistent. Add in an improved running game and Stafford is still only 31 years old. It has to be remembered that prior to last year he was a top-10 fantasy quarterback for six of the previous seven years. How quickly people forget.
Jeff Pasquino: Finding sleeper quarterbacks (beyond the Top 20-22) is a tougher challenge this season, but one way to start is to find one that is going to be the starter all season. Stafford has not missed a game for eight seasons now, and he finished as a Top 10 quarterback in 6 of those 8 years. The problems lie with last year (QB20), partly due to his passing yards dropping below 4.000 for the first time over that same period. The Lions lost strong receiving options last season (Eric Ebron, Golden Tate) along with an injury to Marvin Jones. If Jones stays healthy and rookie TE T.J. Hockenson contributes adequately, Stafford should have four strong targets on the field (Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson) whenever the Lions’ offense takes the field. Stafford’s track record alone makes him a viable sleeper QB2, with QB1 upside in favorable matchups.
Matt Waldman: Team website writer Mike O’Hara said that Stafford played at least a few games with a broken back. If you look at the beating he took against the Jets in the season opener, it is possible Stafford performed with significant injuries for much longer. Marvin Jones missed six games last year and it took a rotation of two tight ends to account for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns, which didn’t match Eric Ebron’s 574 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2017. Stafford was the No.6 fantasy quarterback in 2017 and delivered the third-most passing yards, fourth-most passing touchdowns, and fourth-highest yards-per-attempt average of any starter. He has six top-10 fantasy seasons at his position during the past eight years and three consecutive at this level prior to last year’s injury-riddled season. A healthy Stafford –even a heavier run offense—is no worse than a top-15 fantasy starter.
Jason Wood: I wouldn’t say I’m particularly bullish on Matthew Stafford this year, but it’s hard to understand how far he’s fallen given his impressive history. Stafford is inarguably a better fantasy asset than real-life quarterback, but we are about the fantasy points, not the Lions win-loss record. Sure, he finished QB20 last year in Matt Patricia’s first season as head coach, but why aren’t we treating it as an outlier? Stafford was a QB1 in six of his prior seven seasons, and we’ve subsequently learned Stafford had broken bones in his back last year. If a broken back and a litany of injuries to his receivers and offensive line aren’t enough to discount 2018’s poor showing, what is?
Players Receiving 5 Votes
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati
Drew Davenport: Dalton is a great example of why it's so easy to wait on quarterback. He is being almost completely forgotten to date in fantasy drafts. He started out the year throwing 11 touchdowns in just four games before losing a string of players due to injury and then succumbing to injury himself. Recency bias has therefore pushed Dalton way down the ADP charts. There are signs that John Ross is making strides, and A.J. Green will be back and healthy as well. Couple that with a new offense under Zac Taylor and there is plenty of evidence that Dalton could be a great late-round quarterback option.
Ryan Hester: Before the season starts, we can assume that Dalton and A.J. Green are fully healthy. That combination has seen top-5 fantasy results before. In addition, the Cincinnati offense should benefit from a shot in the arm in the form of new head coach Zac Taylor. And this late in the draft, if Dalton doesn’t perform well - or if he gets injured again - little is lost by dropping him and going to the waiver wire.
Andy Hicks: Andy Dalton with a new head coach could either be a revolution for his fantasy prospects or the end of his time with Cincinnati. He will be given significant time to start in this new offense and his competitors for playing time simply are not the future for the franchise. He has the ever-reliable A.J. Green to help and a very good young back in Joe Mixon. Add in a rapidly improving Tyler Boyd and you have the key ingredients of any likely improvement in the fantasy prospects of Dalton in 2019. At his draft price right now he is an easy cut or a potential starting fantasy quarterback. Great value.
Dan Hindery: At the midway point of the 2018 season, Andy Dalton was a fantasy QB1. He was on pace for over 4,200 passing yards, 34 passing touchdowns, and 4 rushing touchdowns. A.J. Green was lost to an injury after Week 8 and Dalton landed on injured reserve soon after, so it is easy to forget Dalton’s strong first half that had the Bengals sitting at 5-3. Dalton has a reasonable chance to produce low-end QB1 numbers in 2019 if his top pass-catchers (Green, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Eifert, and John Ross) can stay healthy, especially given the arrival of Zac Taylor and the installation of the same offense which allowed Jared Goff to emerge as a top fantasy option.
Dwain McFarland: Dalton was on a fine pace before injuries wrecked his receiving corps last season. Heading into 2019 he gets his weapons back and a new scheme. Zac Taylor has stated it would be silly for the Bengals not to base much of what they do off of what he learned while with the Rams. A.J. Green provides an elite option that can do anything. Tyler Boyd will play the slot role similar to Cooper Kupp, and John Ross gets one more chance to shine in the Brandin Cooks role.
Sam Darnold, NY Jets
Phil Alexander: Darnold was the top-rated passer in the league over the final quarter of his rookie season. The Jets added safety valves -- Le'Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder -- to help in the short passing game, and Darnold developed great rapport late last year with Robby Anderson on downfield throws. He's an elite quarterback prospect primed to make a second-year leap. The arrow is quietly pointing up for the entire Jets offense.
James Brimacombe: Darnold enters year two in New York with some upgrades on offense with a well-rested LeVeon Bell who can help pad his passing stats and with a safety net in Jamison Crowder who can reel in the short bailout passes. Add those two players to the potential breakout candidate in Robby Anderson who can help out with the big plays down the field and with Quincy Enunwa and Chris Herndon as the other receivers and you have a solid core for Darnold.
Jeff Haseley: Carson Wentz had a relatively average, mediocre first season before exploding on the scene in his second year. Sam Darnold's numbers in his rookie year are eerily similar to Wentz's. Darnold has that same level of intrigue heading into his second season and he has the talent for success in the league. If his development, surrounding cast, and luck go his way, he could have a breakthrough year in 2019.
Andy Hicks: The Jets begin the process of surrounding Sam Darnold with weapons by signing LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder. Adding Adam Gase as the head coach seems an odd choice. One bad year of a new head coach could set Darnold back permanently. That said, Darnold does look the goods, but fantasy success may take a little stability in the organization. 2019, therefore, will be a challenge, but if he gets through this year with improvement, he should become a regular atop fantasy quarterbacks, and if things go well that may well start this year for fantasy managers.
Justin Howe: Darnold’s rookie year wasn’t consistently pretty; in fact, it was pretty bad for a hefty stretch early on. But upon his Week 14 return from injury, he closed the season as one of football’s more effective passers. Over those final four weeks, he landed seventh league-wide in adjusted yards per attempt and 12th in passing fantasy points. Going forward, he’ll likely continue to lean on his slot guys (Jamison Crowder, Quincy Enunwa, tight end Chris Herndon), which will hopefully keep up his efficiency numbers and confidence. That will allow him to dial up Robby Anderson down the field more often, a connection with serious upside. The pair hooked up 23 times for 336 yards and 3 scores over those final four games.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Nick Foles, Jacksonville
Will Grant: The knock on Blake Bortles was that he threw almost as many interceptions as he did touchdowns. Nick Foles is not that guy. Looking at his wide receivers turns your stomach a little, but Foles built his career on consistent, mistake-free football. This may be just what the Jaguars need to stabilize the ship. I like Foles as a late-round flyer who could be decent value as the season progresses.
Devin Knotts: Nick Foles is stepping into a very underrated situation this season in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have brought in John DeFilippo who was fired from Minnesota for not running the ball enough and has spent most of his career as a pass-first coordinator. This is an offense loaded with young talent at the wide receiver position that should give Foles plenty of options this season. Expect Foles to be very similar to Kirk Cousins last year -- taking high-percentage throws in an offense that set the record for most completions in the month of September last year with 131. While Blake Bortles was not a good quarterback, he finished as the 22nd-ranked fantasy quarterback last year which is lower than where Foles is currently being taken. Foles is a better quarterback and barring injury should play more than the 13 games that Bortles played last season and has top-12 upside.
Maurile Tremblay: Blake Bortles has generally held the Jaguars' offense back over the last handful of years. Nick Foles offers something that Bortles didn't: the ability to make sound decisions with the football and avoid turnovers. He's got excellent physical attributes and tremendous leadership qualities, and some underrated young wide receivers to throw to. Don't be surprised if he's a quality fantasy starter in twelve-team leagues that start two QBs.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee
Dwain McFarland: Mariota, like Garoppolo, has been somewhat unfortunate due to injuries. In Mariota’s first two seasons he showed promise of delivering touchdown strikes with a 5.1% and 5.8% touchdown per attempt rate. In three of his first four seasons, he has eclipsed the NFL average for yards per attempt as well. Mariota now has a multitude of new weapons at his disposal. Adam Humphries will provide an underneath security blanket he has never had. A.J. Brown will mix in at flanker to provide a new intermediate target. Delanie Walker is returning from injury, Corey Davis is only entering his third season, and Dion Lewis is an underrated option as a pass-catcher from the backfield. When you add in the value of Mariota’s legs, Mariota has sneaky QB1 upside that much of the fantasy community is ignoring.
Daniel Simpkins: Tennessee came just short of making the playoffs last season with a team that was held together by rubber bands and duck tape. They’ve added some offensive talent, their line looks better with Rodger Saffold, and they’ll have some key personnel coming back from injury on both sides of the ball. All of that bodes well for them being much better than they were last year and the passing offense growing into a respectable unit. Even if Mariota once again proves not to be able to stay healthy, Ryan Tannehill is basically his clone in terms of ability and style of play and can be had cheaply or for free in most leagues.
Player Receiving 1 Vote
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami
Ryan Hester: If Fitzpatrick earns the starting job, he has to be considered in two-quarterback or superflex leagues. He’s being drafted outside of the top-30 and would be a starter. In addition to that, he has shown top-5 fantasy upside in the past -- even on a bad team with a bad supporting cast. He’s a penny stock who could pay dividends.
