Cracking FanDuel: Week 12

Photo: USA Today Sports

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Each Sunday Morning, check back here to see if there are any updates to the primary cash game lineup. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions

Update #3- 12:23PM

With Alshon Jeffery now being out, the Eagles are without Agholor and Jeffery. This changes my primary cash game lineup. I'm putting Leonard Fournette into the lineup which scares me. I did mention that my fade was changing from Fournette to Bell, but this lineup just fits. Zach Ertz is going to have to be a major part of the passing game. Fournette is going to be popular, so even though I don't love the player, but will likely just cancel out opponents Fournette.

• QB Matt Ryan- ATl, $7,900
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $8,200
• RB Alvin Kamara - NO, $8,300
• WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,400
• WR Odell Beckham, Cle, $7,000
• WR Devante Parker, MIA, $6,000
• TE Zach Ertz, PHI, $6,100
• Flex RB- Leonard Fournette, Jax, $7,000
• TD Washington Redskins, $3,000

Update #2:

Auden Tate is now active, which is a major shock. Tyler Boyd is not nearly as great of an option this week, but still rolling with the other lineup in primary cash.

Here's a lineup that is probably not a cash game lineup, but still a fun lineup that I built and wanted to share.

• QB Matt Ryan- ATl, $7,900
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $8,200
• RB Alvin Kamara - NO, $8,300
• WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,400
• WR Odell Beckham, Cle, $7,000
• WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,400
• TE Darren Waller, Oak, $6,200
• Flex RB- Benny Snell, Pit, $4,500
• TD Washington Redskins, $3,000

Update:

Sal Paolantonio of ESPN is reporting that Miles Sanders and Jay Ajayi will be a timeshare split this week. This makes Miles Sanders as a must avoid in cash games this week.

Here's where the primary cash game landed with the Miles Sanders news. I thought about going to Fournette pretty hard, just because he fit, so if you want to go to him I actually think Le'Veon Bell is a bigger fade for me than Fournette at this point. Still not using Fournette in cash though.

Also, one thing I used to do is an evaluation of a high dollar H2H. If this is something you're interested in, let me know on Twitter and we can do that.

• QB Matt Ryan- ATl, $7,900
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $8,200
• RB Alvin Kamara - NO, $8,300
• WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,400
• WR Odell Beckham, Cle, $7,000
• WR Tyler Boyd, Cin, $5,600
• TE Greg Olsen, CAR, $5,100
• Flex RB- Derrick Henry, $8,400
• TD Washington Redskins, $3,000

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Cleveland (vs Mia) – 28 points
• New Orleans (vs CAR) 27.75 points
• Atlanta (vs TB)- 27.75 points
• New England (vs DAL) – 25.25 points
• Oakland (vs NYJ)- 24.75 points

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK-

Last week was an interesting week. The primary cash game lineup had a high enough score to cash in nearly every GPP, and was slightly profitable in my large number of head to heads, but fell short in some of the bigger head-to-heads. Mohamed Sanu getting injured was a key injury as I was torn between him and John Brown and we all know what John Brown did this past week with over 100 yards and two touchdowns.

General STRATEGY THIS WEEK- Play Head-to-Heads over 50/50's

I write this typically 2-3x per year, but it is incredibly important. Game selection is absolutely key. In playing the large 50/50’s, you are playing essentially the best cash players on FanDuel. 99.5% of people who play on FanDuel can very easily avoid some of the highest volume players by playing in $1,$2 or $3 contests. There are restrictions for some of the largest volume players that they either are limited in how many of these contests they can play or are not allowed to play them altogether. If you’re reading this, you’re likely competitive with the top end players, but the margins of winning and losing are razor-thin as we saw last week and have seen most of the year where ownership is extremely high.

50/50’s are also an all-or-nothing proposition, where in head-to-heads you get a little more diversity in opponents as well as better bankroll management as if you finish in the 40^th percentile of lineups, you’re still likely to win 40% of your head-to-heads where you would win 0% of your 50/50’s. Also, you can control opponents, as you play more head-to-heads you become more accustomed to who is producing smart lineups compared to not smart lineups. Create a list of the not smart players and target them. If you aren’t familiar with opponents, what you could do is just look at the number of contests that someone has posted. This is not as reliable, but a person playing one contest compared to 100 head-to-head contests is likely spending less time as they have less invested. This is not always the case, but until you become accustomed to opponents it helps you avoid higher volume players.

Below is Devin Knotts' cash game strategy for Week 11 as well as his cash game lineup.

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 11

Finding Value

This is the first week in a while that we have had that there is not going to be the same lineup build across the board. Previous weeks, we had extremely expensive running backs that were in great matchups as well as Lamar Jackson that made everyone’s lineups very similar. This week, there are a number of options that are viable. Miles Sanders is definitely risky this week, but with no Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor both banged up, the Eagles will likely be forced to once again turn to Sanders and he is one of the cheap options on this slate. The key here is likely finding a balanced lineup as Christian McCaffrey is in a tough matchup and there are a number of mid-tier options at the wide receiver position that you don’t need to pay up for Michael Thomas this week.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

Not many injuries this week which makes the opportunity fairly minimal.

• Jordan Howard remains out, Miles Sanders is one of the top value plays this week at the running back position.
• Auden Tate looks like he will miss this week. This should open up opportunity for Tyler Boyd to see a significant amount of targets. It’s hard to trust the Bengals offense, but Boyd has come out this week and mentioned that he was frustrated with his lack of targets. Expect Boyd to see a lot of work this week.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster will miss this week, which makes Diontae Johnson an interesting play at the receiver position.
• Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. This should open up opportunity for Brian Hill, but after a tremendous matchup last week, Hill struggled to take advantage of it averaging just 2.0 yards-per-carry against a weak Panthers defense. Hill also wasn’t involved in the passing game as he had just one reception on three targets. Hill is a GPP play, but can’t be trusted in cash.
• Marshon Lattimore is questionable this week after being a limited participant on Friday with his hamstring injury. If he is out, D.J. Moore would see a significant upgrade.
• The Patriots receiving group is extremelly limited. It looks like Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu will both miss this week. This should open up opportunity for N’Keal Harry, but hard to trust the rookie in cash this week. Julian Edelman also sees an upgrade, but is expensive in a somewhat tough matchup against Dallas.
• Philadelphia is a situation that we are going to be continuing to monitor. Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are both extremely questionable this week. Agholor looks like he will miss while Jeffery looks more questionable. If both were to miss, Dallas Goedert would likely become cash game viable and Zach Ertz would see an upgrade as well.

KEY CASH CORE

Washington Redskins Defense-

Look typing the words “Washington Redskins Defense” is not something that makes anyone feel good. However, at just $3,000 they are facing a Lions team in the lowest projected scoring game of the week. Jeff Driskel has not been great so far this year completing just 58% of his passes and has been sacked five times in his two starts. his is a game where if the Redskins can get a couple of sacks, maybe a turnover and hold the Lions to 21 or less, they will pay off the price. It’s not a great play, but it is a great price in a week we need salary relief.

Odell Beckham

By most standards, Odell Beckham has been incredibly disappointing this season. However, he is still on pace for 1,100 yards on the year. Beckham has faced some incredibly tough corners over the past few weeks and is in an incredibly favorable matchup against the Dolphins. The Dolphins placed Reshad Jones and Bobby McCain on IR this week which now leaves them without their top four secondary players who started the season. The Dolphins have struggled mightily against speed wide receivers Dolphins as on the season John Brown had 137 yards and 2 touchdowns, JuJu Smith-Schuster had 103 yards and a touchdown, Terry McLaurin had 100 yards and 2 touchdowns, John Brown had 83 yards and a touchdown, Amari Cooper had 88 yards and 2 touchdowns and Marquise Brown had 147 yards and 2 touchdowns. At just $7,000, Beckham has tremendous upside this week to go for over 100 yards and score his second touchdown on the season.

Nick Chubb

Playing two Browns players in every cash game lineup seems a little bit risky. However, this is an offense that is projected to score 28 points, and is an offense that is extremely narrow in terms of targets. The ball moves through four players in Cleveland (Beckham, Landry, Chubb, Hunt), Chubb has 20 touches or more in every game this season except one and the only game he did not was a game in which they were blown out by the 49ers. In a game in which the Browns should be a potential blowout, expect Chubb to once again see 20+ touches with over 100 yards and a touchdown. Chubb is the safest running back on the board this week.

Matt Ryan-

The Buccaneers have struggled mightily for the entire season against the pass as they have allowed the second most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks on the season (23.8 per game). Since Week 9, the Buccaneers have fallen apart (28.8 FanDuel points per game). The Buccaneers have allowed 11 passing touchdowns over the last three games and are averaging 310 yards passing per game. The Buccaneers cut former first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves, but it has not helped their defense as rookie Sean Murphy-Bunting has not been any better at the position. The Buccaneers also boast one of the best run defenses in football which without Devonta Freeman will likely force the Falcons to throw the ball against the soft defense.

KEY FADE

Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette is going to be popular this week as he is cheap and currently projected to be the second-highest GPP running back which translates to cash. Here’s the reality regarding Fournette, Tennessee completely shut down this rushing attack in the first meeting that most people are simply going to forget. Leonard Fournette had -8 yards on his first 12 carries in that game and only on the game clinching drive did he break a 69 yard run to seal the game. Fournette has just one touchdown on the season and the team has all but abandoned him inside the five as he has just four carries all season inside the five yard line which is 35^th in the NFL this season. Fournette has negative six yards on those four carries inside the five as well. While he has been utilized as a receiver, with FanDuel only being a 0.5 PPR site, this is not the situation you should go to this week. Tennessee has only allowed five rushing touchdowns on the season, and have shut-down running backs between the tackles this year as they have only allowed five rushing touchdowns on the year, all of which were to speed/slasher backs (Christian McCaffrey x2, Ito Smith, Phillip Lindsay, and Dontrel Hilliard).

LINEUPS

ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH (Assuming Marshon Lattimore is out)- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 127.2)

• QB Matt Ryan- ATl, $7,900
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $8,200
• RB Alvin Kamara - NO, $8,300
• WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,400
• WR Odell Beckham, Cle, $7,000
• WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,400
• TE Greg Olsen, CAR, $5,100
• Flex RB- Miles Sanders, $5,600
• TD Washington Redskins, $3,000

ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Balanced Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 128.3)

• QB Matt Ryan- ATl, $7,900
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $8,200
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $5,600
• WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,400
• WR Odell Beckham, Cle, $7,000
• WR Julio Jones, CIN, $8,400
• TE Darren Waller, Oak, $6,200
• Flex RB- Le’Veon Bell, NYJ, $7,300
• TD Washington Redskins, $3,000

ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ TB ATL STACK(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 128.5)

• QB Matt Ryan- ATL, $7,900
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $8,200
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $5,600
• WR- Mike Evans, TB, $8,000
• WR Odell Beckham, Cle, $7,000
• WR Julio Jones, CIN, $8,400
• TE Greg Olsen, $5,100
• Flex RB- Calvin Ridley, $6,700
• TD Washington Redskins, $3,000

Bonus ROSTER 4 ($60K) – CASH+ Cle/Mia Game STACK(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 124.8)

• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick- ATl, $7,900
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $8,200
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,300
• WR- Julio Jones, ATL, $8,400
• WR Odell Beckham, Cle, $7,000
• WR DeVante Parker, MIA, $6,000
• TE Darren Waller, Oak, $6,200
• Flex RB- Miles Sanders, PHI, $5,600
• TD Washington Redskins, $3,000

Any questions on your cash game lineup or feedback on the article? Send me a message on Twitter below.

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