Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 11/11 @ 8 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Arizona | -16 | 32.75 | 49.5 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| LA Rams | Seattle | -9.5 | 30 | 50.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Chargers | Oakland | -10 | 29.75 | 49.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Cincinnati | -5.5 | 29.5 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Green Bay | Miami | -10 | 28.75 | 47.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Atlanta | Cleveland | -6 | 28.25 | 50.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Carolina | -4 | 28 | 52 | ++ | ++ | |
| Tampa Bay | Washington | -3 | 26.75 | 50.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| New England | Tennessee | -6.5 | 26.75 | 47 | ++ | ++ | |
| Chicago | Detroit | -7 | 25.75 | 44.5 | + | + | + |
| Philadelphia | Dallas | -7.5 | 25.75 | 44 | + | + | + |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -3 | 25 | 47 | + | + | |
| Cincinnati | New Orleans | 5.5 | 24 | 53.5 | + | + | |
| Carolina | Pittsburgh | 4 | 24 | 52 | + | + | |
| Washington | Tampa Bay | 3 | 23.75 | 50.5 | |||
| San Francisco | NY Giants | -3 | 23.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Cleveland | Atlanta | 6 | 22.25 | 50.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Buffalo | -7.5 | 22 | 36.5 | +++ | ||
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 3 | 22 | 47 | |||
| NY Giants | San Francisco | 3 | 20.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Seattle | LA Rams | 9.5 | 20.5 | 50.5 | |||
| Tennessee | New England | 6.5 | 20.25 | 47 | |||
| Oakland | LA Chargers | 10 | 19.75 | 49.5 | |||
| Detroit | Chicago | 7 | 18.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Miami | Green Bay | 10 | 18.75 | 47.5 | |||
| Dallas | Philadelphia | 7.5 | 18.25 | 44 | |||
| Arizona | Kansas City | 16 | 16.75 | 49.5 | |||
| Buffalo | NY Jets | 7.5 | 14.5 | 36.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Jared Goff (Rams), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Drew Brees (Saints), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Todd Gurley (Rams), Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Aaron Jones (Packers)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (Chargers), Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Ben Watson (Saints), Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Randall Cobb/Jimmy Graham (Packers)
- Defense: Jets
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buccaneers), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: James Conner (Steelers), Tevin Coleman/Ito Smith (Falcons), Peyton Barber (Bucanneers), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots)
- Receivers: Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Chiefs
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Andrew Luck (Colts), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Cam Newton (Panthers)
- Running Back: Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen (Bears), Marlon Mack (Colts), Corey Clement/Wendell Smallwood (Eagles), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)
- Receivers: Allen Robinson/Taylor Gabriel/Trey Burton (Bears), T.Y. Hilton/Ryan Grant/Eric Ebron/Jack Doyle (Colts), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Tyler Boyd/John Ross/C.J. Uzomah (Bengals), Devin Funchess/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers)
- Defense: Eagles, Packers, Bears
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Daily FF
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Davante Adams
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Peyton Barber
Tyler Boyd
Tom Brady
Antonio Brown
Corey Clement
Randall Cobb
Tevin Coleman
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Andy Dalton
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
Zach Ertz
Mike Evans
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jared Goff
Josh Gordon
Melvin Gordon III
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Tyreek Hill
T.Y. Hilton
Austin Hooper
Jordan Howard
O.J. Howard
Kareem Hunt
Mark Ingram II
DeSean Jackson
Aaron Jones
Julio Jones
Alvin Kamara
Travis Kelce
Cooper Kupp
Marlon Mack
Patrick Mahomes II
Christian McCaffrey
Sony Michel
Joe Mixon
DJ Moore
Cam Newton
Calvin Ridley
Allen Robinson II
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
John Ross
Matt Ryan
Wendell Smallwood
Ito Smith
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Tre'Quan Smith
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Mitch Trubisky
C.J. Uzomah
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Sammy Watkins
Carson Wentz
James White
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Robert Woods