Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Updated Thursday 10/11 @ 7:30 PM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Kansas City | -3.5 | 31.5 | 59.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -3 | 30.25 | 57.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | Denver | -7 | 29.5 | 52 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | New England | 3.5 | 28 | 59.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Green Bay | San Francisco | -9.5 | 28 | 46.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | -2 | 27.25 | 52.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 3 | 27.25 | 57.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Minnesota | Arizona | -10 | 26.5 | 43 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Houston | Buffalo | -10 | 25.5 | 41 | + | ++ | +++ |
| Seattle | Oakland | -2.5 | 25.25 | 48 | + | + | |
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | 2 | 25.25 | 52.5 | + | + | |
| NY Jets | Indianapolis | -2.5 | 23.75 | 45 | |||
| Philadelphia | NY Giants | -1.5 | 23 | 44.5 | + | ||
| LA Chargers | Cleveland | -1 | 23 | 45 | |||
| Washington | Carolina | -1 | 22.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Oakland | Seattle | 2.5 | 22.75 | 48 | |||
| Denver | LA Rams | 7 | 22.5 | 52 | |||
| Chicago | Miami | -3.5 | 22.5 | 41.5 | + | ||
| Cleveland | LA Chargers | 1 | 22 | 45 | |||
| Baltimore | Tennessee | -2.5 | 22 | 41.5 | |||
| Carolina | Washington | 1 | 21.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | Dallas | -3 | 21.75 | 40.5 | + | ||
| NY Giants | Philadelphia | 1.5 | 21.5 | 44.5 | |||
| Indianapolis | NY Jets | 2.5 | 21.25 | 45 | |||
| Tennessee | Baltimore | 2.5 | 19.5 | 41.5 | |||
| Miami | Chicago | 3.5 | 19 | 41.5 | |||
| Dallas | Jacksonville | 3 | 18.75 | 40.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Green Bay | 9.5 | 18.5 | 46.5 | |||
| Arizona | Minnesota | 10 | 16.5 | 43 | |||
| Buffalo | Houston | 10 | 15.5 | 41 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Jared Goff (Rams), Patrick Mahomes II II (Chiefs), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Todd Gurley (Rams), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams (Packers), Latavius Murray (Vikings)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Geronimo Allison (Packers)
- Defense: Texans
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Andy Dalton (Bengals), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
- Running Back: Joe Mixon (Bengals), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: A.J. Green/Tyler Boyd/John Ross (Bengals), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings)
- Defense: Cardinals
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Chris Carson/Mike Davis (Seahawks), James Conner (Steelers)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Nick Vannett (Seahawks), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Keke Coutee (Texans)
- Defense: Packers, Jaguars, Bears, Eagles
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags
Daily FF
DraftKings
FanDuel
Davante Adams
Geronimo Allison
Peyton Barber
Tyler Boyd
Tom Brady
Cameron Brate
Antonio Brown
Chris Carson
Randall Cobb
Tevin Coleman
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Kirk Cousins
Keke Coutee
Andy Dalton
Mike Davis
Stefon Diggs
Mike Evans
Devonta Freeman
Will Fuller V
Jared Goff
Josh Gordon
A.J. Green
Rob Gronkowski
Tyreek Hill
Chris Hogan
Austin Hooper
DeAndre Hopkins
Kareem Hunt
DeSean Jackson
Aaron Jones
Julio Jones
Travis Kelce
Cooper Kupp
Tyler Lockett
Patrick Mahomes II
Sony Michel
Joe Mixon
Latavius Murray
Calvin Ridley
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
John Ross
Kyle Rudolph
Matt Ryan
Mohamed Sanu
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Adam Thielen
Nick Vannett
Sammy Watkins
Deshaun Watson
James White
Jamaal Williams
Russell Wilson
Jameis Winston
Robert Woods
