You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Favorable and unfavorable (WR/TE Matchups) exposed
Aaron Rudnicki's late-week feature on individual passing game matchups offers a focused examination of the one-on-one game that often occurs on the islands detached from the formation. Here are Rudnicki's entries for Sunday that caught my eye.
Favorable...
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA vs CAR (Captain Munnerlyn)
Baldwin looked great last week against the Packers and looks like he could finally be getting close to full health. While the Panthers have gotten some strong play from their outside corners at times, they have also been inconsistent so Tyler Lockett remains a good boom/bust option. They appear to be particularly vulnerable inside, however, as Munnerlyn and their safeties have given up plenty of points to opposing slot receivers all year.TE George Kittle, SF vs TB
Kittle appears to be matchup-proof and it doesn’t even matter who his quarterback is either. He should be the week’s best tight end option given a matchup against Tampa, which ranks 3rd in average points allowed to the position this year. They are going to be without their top two linebackers and likely their best safety again as well.WR D.J. Moore, CAR vs SEA (Shaq Griffin)
The Seattle outside corners have not been a strength for this team all season and have allowed an opposing receiver to top 100 yards for four straight games. With Devin Funchess coming off a miserable outing and dealing with a back injury, Moore should see a steady dose of targets this week. He torched the Lions for 7 catches on 8 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown last week and looks poised for another big game here.Unfavorable...
WR Davante Adams, GB vs MIN (Xavier Rhodes)
Adams seems relatively matchup-proof as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center, but he will have a tougher than usual matchup with Rhodes this week. Adams caught 8-of-12 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown when the two teams met way back in week 2, but Rhodes has stepped up his game of late with lockdown efforts against Marvin Jones Jr/a> and Allen Robinson in his last two outings.WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs LAC (Desmond King)
Fitzgerald came through with a pair of short touchdowns last week but otherwise was held in check by the Raiders. Now he gets to take on a much tougher secondary that has only allowed one touchdown to an opposing receiver in their last five games. Desmond King has played very well and should keep Fitzgerald in check here despite the size disadvantage. Christian Kirk may also have a tough time with Casey Hayward on the outside, which could force Arizona to rely even more heavily on David Johnson.TE Rob Gronkowski, NE vs NYJ
The Jets have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends all year and it’s not due to a weak schedule. Apart from a 4/71/1 game for Eric Ebron in week 6, the Jets have not allowed any tight ends to hurt them with just 5 total catches allowed to the position over their last 5 games. Gronkowski is expected to return to the lineup this week for the first time since week 8 but it’s not clear if his back issues are truly behind him so he remains a risky option given the matchup.
Matt's Verdicts: I agree with Rudnicki that Baldwin looks a lot healthier in recent weeks. The short-area quickness to earn yards after the catch against defenders in tight quarters appears much closer to what we've expected from Baldwin in the past. Because the Panthers are a blitzing defense, Baldwin's ability to win hot routes is an essential counterpoint to Carolina's game plan.
George Kittle has performed like one of the top five all-around tight ends in the NFL. The Buccaneers defense is damaged to the point that breathing on them might yield a half-dozen fantasy points. Kittle is a weekly must-start and potentially an elite scorer this weekend.
I've been writing about D.J. Moore for the past 2-3 weeks in my weekly Top 10 article, and while I can appreciate Rudnicki's analysis of the individual matchup, I'm also excited about Moore facing a defense that has a schematic weakness for routes that work across the middle and force the Seattle linebackers and safeties to hand off that route among each other.
This is where breakdowns often occur if the Seahawks pass rush can't get home on Cam Newton. Add a young secondary to the equation that is prone to blowing assignments and Moore has a shot at another week of 1-2 big plays.
It's not just the emergence of Xavier Rhodes that worries me for Davante Adams, it's the healthier defensive front that should do a better job of pressuring Aaron Rodgers. Even so, I still have enough confidence in Adams that I would still play him even if I appreciate the gutsy call from Rudnicki here. What Rodgers did against Seattle's high-pressure front last weekend is special and he's great enough to do it again against the Vikings — and anyone else.
Rudnicki has a good reason for concern about the Chargers' secondary. The return of Joey Bosa to the Los Angeles defensive line compounds the obstacles for the Arizona passing game because fellow defensive end Melvin Ingram III has already been a wrecking crew while Bosa has been absent. Barring a long touchdown based on a break down of gap discipline against David Johnson or a big play against on a coverage bust for Christian Kirk or Chad Williams, I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona gets shut out in this game.
If you have Gronkowski, I doubt there will be much to dissuade you from starting him. I get it because I'll roll the dice with him due to the variety of weapons that the Patriots have to place pressure on an opposing defense and get Gronkowski open for easier targets.
When we take a closer look at the matchup history for the Jets defense this year, I'm not sure I agree with Rudnicki about the quality of opposition. The Lions, Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos, and Bills lack great (or high volume targets) tight ends in the passing game. While David Njoku has talent, Tyrod Taylor was not targeting him enough in an offense where Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were battling for control.
Kyle Rudolph and Trey Burton have enough competition for targets with their team's perimeter receiver game that it's not a great assumption that the Jets shut the position down. It leaves the Colts tight ends — the only team where tight end has been a true focus of the passing game — and two of the three earned touchdowns in the game.
Unless Rob Gronkowski is only returning to the field to function as a decoy, which is possible and we won't know until we see it, I am starting him against the Jets without zero regrets.
2. Trendspotting The Ravens-Raiders Tilt
It's time for another look at Ryan Hester's Trendspotting feature, a fine data-based examination of matchups and how the numbers indicate exploitable matchups. This week, Hester — like many — is willing to bet on Lamar Jackson this weekend.
Commentary and Action Items
- Baltimore calls a run on 49.6% of its neutral script plays, the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL.
- Oakland has a run called against it on 54.2% of its neutral script plays, the second-highest percentage.
- Baltimore scores 32.9% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the second-highest percentage.
- Oakland allows 36.7% of its total yards via the rush, the second-highest percentage.
Baltimore wants to run. Oakland isn't good at stopping the run. Baltimore is a huge home favorite, so game script should only enhance game plan. And Baltimore has a running quarterback starting in Lamar Jackson. So the question isn't if we are going to pick a piece (or two) of the Baltimore running game, it's which one(s).
Last week, Gus Edwards took over for Alex Collins, efficiently rushing for 115 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Carries after the first quarter were 14-2 in favor of Edwards. Baltimore may have been experimenting, but after a performance like that, they'd be crazy to put this genie back in the bottle.
The same goes for Jackson and the run-centric game plan with him. He's highly unlikely to see 27 carries again, but 15 isn't out of the question. Sure, fewer carries might mean under 100 rushing yards. But what happens when the touchdowns come? What happens when Jackson gets more comfortable passing and that fantasy production comes too?
Both Edwards and Jackson are both worthy of DFS consideration this week, Jackson in cash games and Edwards in GPPs due to the unknown time split in the backfield. But Edwards is an RB2 with RB1 upside, while Jackson is firmly in the QB1 ranks in season-long formats.
Jackson is the sweet potato pie this week -- something a little unconventional (is this a dessert? is it not?) but satisfying nonetheless. Edwards is the cranberry sauce due to the variability of his outcomes. If you get that canned stuff, throw it in the trash; but homemade and slightly tart, and you're ahead of the field.
Matt's Verdict: Jackson and Edwards are worth the gamble once again because they complement each other in this option-based attack. While Alex Collins is a more creative runner, his ball security has cost him the full confidence of the Ravens' staff and opened the door for Edwards to earn more playing time. Because Collins is so creative, he can err towards tentative play when he presses too hard to do something big.
I agree with Hester than Jackson's rush count should be lower this week but it should still remain much higher than the average quarterback because many of Jackson's attempts earned strong gains without much contact. The Bengals played with a lot of cushion at the edges of these zone read plays during the first half. If the Raiders do the same or Jackson doesn't take a lot of hits while gaining 7-12 yards at a clip, why wouldn't the Ravens continue going to Jackson?
I still think 15-20 attempts is on the table for Jackson this week. I also wonder how Hester thinks sweet potato pie is unconventional. Much love Ryan, but dude, you need to get out more. You know those blue, yellow, and red dots you see on the outside of your house? That's a Wonder Bread bubble that you need to bust through. Hope you had a good Thanksgiving and keep up the great work.
3. Random Shots
Football is fun and Joe Bryant reminds of that weekly with his Random Shots feature, which has been running almost as long as I've been playing fantasy football. There's next to nothing of fantasy value in Joe's column but it's a regular dose of perspective that's mostly delivered with a spoonful of humor.
The Citadel beat Alabama Saturday...
In the Coin Toss.
Which leads me to the coin toss story of the year so far.
Soccer referee David McNamara in the UK found himself without a coin to toss before a recent game. He improvised and instructed the two captains to play a game of rock/paper/scissors.
Genius.
The Football Association did not see it this way. They suspended McNamara for three weeks for the atrocity.
In a show of solidarity, soccer referees across grassroots matches in England starting using rock/paper/scissors ahead of their games.
"A lot of us were thinking of David," referee Ryan Hampson told BBC Sport. "We wanted to show solidarity."
Hampson said players had requested rock/paper/scissors before he took control of the match in Lancashire.
Again, the powers that be were not impressed:
"We can't condone anyone deliberately breaking the laws of football," Ref Support UK chief executive Martin Cassidy said. "However, we understand hundreds took part.
"Two wrongs don't make a right. Referees are law-enforcers and not law-breakers," a Southern Sunday League spokesperson told the BBC. "This action is unprofessional, and it brings the game into disrepute."
My thought:
If playing fantasy football or watching the NFL is leading to moments of anxiety or anger, take a step (or five) back, look up at the horizon, enjoy the view., and....lighten up, Francis.
4. Eyes of the Guru
John Norton's Eyes of the Guru has probably been running as long as Bryant's Random Shots. As always, Norton is delivering wise advice from the defensive side of the ball. Here are a few nuggets worth noting this week:
Budda Baker missed week 11 with a sore knee and his status for Week 12 remains unknown as of Wednesday morning. Bene Benwikere stepped into Baker’s role last week finishing at 6-2-0. There is a good chance he will work in that role again versus the Chargers. Managers that can play him as a corner have the most to gain from this situation but even if defensive backs are all the same he is a worthy start.
With most of their secondary healthy, the Texans opened in a nickel featuring Justin Reid at strong safety, Tyrunn Mathieu at free and Kareem Jackson opposite Jonathan Joseph at corner. Shareece Wright was the fifth/nickel defensive back. Jackson, Mathieu, and Reid all played at least 96% of the snaps. Both Mathieu and Jackson put up excellent tackle numbers (8-1-1) while Reid returned a pick 101 yards for a score. The only concern with Reid for this week is matchup and the expected return of inside linebacker Zach Cunningham from injury. Tennessee has been a horrible matchup for safeties with both opponents starting position averaging less than eight tackles combined, and the presence of Cunningham on the field could cost Reid a few snaps.
Kenny Moore II had quietly been among the fantasy games most reliable corners with double-digit points in three of the last four games. His 9-1-.5 line in against Tennessee caught a lot of manager’s attention. With the Dolphins, Jaguars, Texans, and Cowboys on the schedule over the next month, Moore may be pressed to keep up the pace. All those teams are marginal matchups for corners.
Matt's Verdict: All three notes are actionable items in most IDP leagues where most formats still have valuable defensive backs available on the waiver this late in the season. Using Benwikere at corner while he's getting safety-caliber opportunities is an excellent suggestion. I also like the rationale for a cautious approach with Reid and Moore.
5. Preparing for the Fantasy Playoffs
This week's Regular Season Roundtable included a request for advice about preparing for the fantasy playoffs. The panel supplied answers worth your consideration.
Waldman: The fantasy playoffs begin in two weeks.
- How should a top-seeded team prepare for the fantasy playoffs?
- How should a team competing for one of the final playoff spots prepare?
- What are common strategic mistakes that playoff-bound teams make?>
Advise.
Schofield: Matchups, rested starters and weather are the things that teams making that run to the playoffs need to keep in mind most as we head into the playoff stretch run.
Sometimes the playoff run requires you to step outside the comfort zone a bit more. You might need to sit down one of your year-long big-time players due to a poor matchup, or a weather situation, so make sure you treat the roster like NASA treats every mission: Have a backup plan for your backup plans. Spend time just sitting in rooms just thinking...stuff...up.
(Ok, I inserted a few "Armageddon" quotes in here.)
The main point is that you need to be prepared for coaches sitting players, note bad weather situations, and account for poor matchups. Also, while we often think of teams that have locked down playoff spots sitting starters don't forget the flip side of that coin: Teams that are out of contention might start playing younger players to get an evaluation on them before the NFL Draft.Do your research, if you've been relying on guys that might fit these categories, make sure you have your backup plan in place. We are through the bye weeks, so it's time to start preparing for your key contributors finding themselves on the sidelines when you might need them most.
Settle: There are a few things that top seeds should be looking at. There is a good chance you have a Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, or any of the Chiefs players as a focal point on your team. See if the coaching staff hints at resting players when they have divisions and even top seeds wrapped up. There is a chance the Rams rest Todd Gurley if the Rams sow up the top seed, especially after Gurley got hurt in Monday night's game.
Note your overall point totals. Sometimes the difference between the top seed and a bye and the third seed is one player you should have started. With a comfortable lead, you can employ more boom-bust plays in an effort to score as many points as possible. Do not risk losing your matchup but look for the best scoring opportunities to lock in your spot.
You will also want to look at the matchups for your top players. For example, Adam Thielen has another matchup against the Bears and that is not always the best bet come crunch time. Look out a few weeks at your potential matchups and try and align yourself with the best possible matchups you can.
Wood: Top-seeded teams, particularly those who have assured playoff spots already, should be laser-focused on the playoff weeks. That means preemptively grabbing defenses, kickers, and tight ends (if you're one of the many teams without Ertz or Kelce on your roster) that have enviable matchups. It also means giving strong consideration to dropping marginal contributors on your roster for high-upside handcuffs to your star players.
For those (like most of us) still in a fight for a playoff spot, you've got to keep grinding and give next to no thought beyond the week ahead. You have to hope you do enough to get into the playoffs and then luck goes your way. You also need to be realistic about your chances. If you're an underdog, be willing to grab off-the-wall waiver picks that have high upside variance.Parsons: As a top-seeded team, prepping for the playoffs is about insulation. Likely past the trade deadline, a team needs to have a Plan B for each position, even if it involves their choice of waiver wire options. Also, it is not too early to align team defenses for optimal matchups for the team's first playoff matchup, or even Week 16.
Next tier playoff teams are not much different than the top seeds in terms of to-do list items, but more focus needs to be on winning the next week instead of the macro of the next month. For example, bidding more aggressively on the best DST option or ensuring a strong bid for a needed streamer if they will be in lineups the next week or two.
The biggest mistake I see is keeping too many flex-level or more flimsy wide receiver bets down the stretch. Wide receiver is not the high-leverage option of a running back or even one of the top tight ends who are one-injury-away. Handcuffing an integral running back on a roster or insulating for a quarterback injury or adding a strong team defense in the coming weeks are all better uses for final roster spots.Tremblay: In theory, teams that have already locked up a playoff spot can sacrifice a few points now in order to strengthen their outlook during the playoffs, while teams that are still in the playoff hunt must focus on winning now. In practice, there usually isn't much difference except in very shallow leagues.
Most teams, even with a playoff spot locked up, are not going to cut a player who should be in their starting lineup. And most teams, even without a playoff spot locked up, should be juggling the bottom of their roster to add a second defense, for example, rather than keeping a replacement-level running back or wide receiver. Teams in both situations, in other words, should be looking ahead to the playoffs and stashing players with good future matchups (even kickers and defenses), but only to the extent that they can create the necessary room by cutting clear fantasy backups -- not fantasy starters.
Matt's Verdict: While I (and others) have written about players who could be sneaky-good additions for playoff runs, I like Maurile's advice here because it's unlikely that fantasy players can make a lot of moves to a roster at this point fo the season. And if you do, it's more likely to occur during the playoffs and not before.
Although we try to help you with preemptive recommendations on your waiver wire, we're not really expecting you to play with more than 1-2 roster spots at this time of the season. Scenarios often become clearer during the postseason and there are usually solid plays available at that time.
I hope you had a fantastic Thanksgiving holiday filled with people you enjoy, the food you love, and moments worth remembering. Good luck this weekend!