In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC in Newport Beach California. This is the LAST chance to qualify and they have two different qualifiers this week one at the $55 price point with a maximum of 500 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 42 entries.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $30,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 1,020. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACK
Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Ben Roethlisberger ($6,650) and WR Antonio Brown ($6,200)
Indianapolis has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, and this should be a prime opportunity for Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger. The Colts have also been one of the worst defenses against number one wide receivers as they allowed 160+ yards to both Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins this season, and this presents a tremendous opportunity for Brown and Roethlisberger to continue to show why they are the best connection in the NFL. This combo maybe under-owned due to the cost of the stack, and the perception of Vontae Davis being one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but this is not the Vontae Davis that we have seen in year’s past.
VALUE STACKS
New York Jets – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,000) and WR Brandon Marshall ($5,550)
The New York Giants have not been able to stop anyone through the air this year allowing 308 yards passing per game which is the highest in the NFL by a significant margin. Eric Decker makes for a great play this week as well, but we prefer Marshall due to his upside being higher than Decker. Marshall has scored a touchdown in each of his last four games, and should be in a great opportunity to score another touchdown this week. He is questionable for this game with a toe injury, so be sure he is playing and if he is out Decker becomes one of the top plays on this slate.
HIGH RISK STACK
Arizona Cardinals – QB Carson Palmer ($6,900) and WR Larry Fitzgerald ($5,650)
Larry Fitzgerald continues to be one of the most targeted wide receivers in the NFL this year. He is 9th in the NFL in targets this season averaging 10.2 targets per game. Over the last four games due to injuries to other wide receivers Fitzgerald is averaging 13 targets per game. The Cardinals are facing a Rams team that while great on paper against the pass that data is largely skewed due to their schedule this season. This team is not an elite pass defense and when you matchup adjust their defense, they’re allowing 249 yards passing per game. With the injury to Chris Johnson, we fully expect Palmer to throw the ball a significant amount of times in order to win this game.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 13.
Quarterback – Jay Cutler Chicago Bears ($6,300)
San Francisco has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL allowing 277 yards per game passing. However, Jay Cutler has not been a great GPP play this year due to his lack of passing attempts and low completion percentage. He has only passed for over 300 yards twice this season and only has one game with more than two touchdowns. This is a game where his price is just too high compared to the expected level of production. He very easily could go for 15-20 points this week, but that is his relative ceiling which is fine for cash games, but does not present the upside needed in order to win a GPP.
Running Back – David Johnson Arizona Cardinals ($4,000)
How many times have we seen a guy become a must start based on injury, and his ownership sky rockets only for him to have a bad game. It seems like this is an every week occurrence this season as we are all trying to chase the next Deangelo Williams breakout week one game. On the season, David Johnson is averaging only 4.0 yards per carry which while it is not bad, he is going to be over-owned for the talent. The other question that is no guarantee is whether he is able to carry the ball 15+ times. We may see Stepfan Taylor and/or Andre Ellington get some carries as the team tries to find an identity on the ground. The price is great, and he could very easily exceed this, but we are not convinced as the talent is not good enough compared to the ownership level.
Wide Receiver – Allen Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,950)
The Titans defense has been sneaky good this season as they have only allowed 221 yards passing per game. Robinson continues to be underpriced on Fantasy Aces by a few hundred dollars in salary which is going to drive his ownership percentage up. Robinson has been a great GPP play this year as he has gone over 100 yards or a touchdown in each of his last 7 games. Tennessee has shut down number one wide receivers this year as they held both Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins under 100 yards, and while Robinson went over 100 yards the last time these two teams met, the game plan is going to likely be to shut down the number one receiver in Jacksonville.
Tight End – Scott Chandler ($4,500)
There is an expectation that Scott Chandler based on the targets he saw last game is going to step right in and be a top 5 tight end this week. We do not expect this to be the case, as the Eagles have been the second best team against the tight end this season. A lot of Chandler’s work this year has been when Gronkowski has been on the other side of him in a two tight end set thus creating a matchup issue for the opponents. With Gronkowski being sidelined for at least this week, Chandler won’t benefit from the emphasis put on Gronkowski.
Defense and Special Teams – Chicago Bears ($2,750)
Over the last few weeks, whichever team has faced Blaine Gabbert has been over-owned in GPP’s. The Bears are going to be no exception this week, as they’re 25th in team takeaways with only 13 takeaways this season. They are also 22nd in team sacks, which severely limits their upside especially as they’re going to be over-owned.
HIGHEST Projected OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Cam Newton Carolina Panthers ($7,300)
Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks ($6,250)
Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,650)
Running Back
Deangelo Williams Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,900)
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals ($4,000)
Shaun Draughn, San Francisco 49ers ($4,300)
Wide Receiver
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears ($5,350)
Allen Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,850)
Antonio Brown Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,200)
Tight End
Scott Chandler New England Patriots ($4,500)
Delanie Walker Tennessee Titans ($4,700)
Jordan Reed Washington Redskins ($4,750)
Defense and Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals($3,100)
Miami Dolphins ($2,800)
Chicago Bears ($2,750)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Quarterback
Austin Davis Cleveland Browns ($4,500)
Alex Smith Kansas City Chiefs ($5,800)
Tom Brady New England Patriots ($7,700)
Running Back
Thomas Rawls Seattle Seahawks ($5,300)
Doug Martin Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,250)
LeGarrette Blount New England Patriots ($4,650)
Wide Receiver
Eric Decker New York Jets ($4,950)
Brandon Marshall New York Jets ($5,550)
Demaryius Thomas Denver Broncos ($5,100)
Tight End
Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns ($4,950)
Julius ThomasJacksonville Jaguars ($4,750)
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers ($4,350)
Defense and Special Team
Washington Redskins ($2,750)
Kansas City Chiefs($2,800)
Miami Dolphins ($2,800)
