Thank you everyone for being part of Footballguys.com this year. Congrats to those of you who weathered the storm and won your league(s). To those of you who fell short, better luck next year and we hope to see you right back here in a few months as we power up for another NFL season. Happy Holidays, and cheers to an even better 2015!
Quarterbacks
Tony Romo, Dal at WAS
The Cowboys are undefeated on the road and Romo has thrown for 3 or more touchdowns in five of his last six games, and six of his last eight. Washington has allowed the most points to quarterbacks. Eli Manning and Mark Sanchez scored 24.5 and 27.9 against them in their last two games, so we can reasonably expect a 25 to 30 point game for Romo.
Cam Newton, Car at ATL
With the division and playoff spot on the line, Newton is a great gamble this week. The Falcons have been one of the more porous secondaries in the league and Newton produced 292 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs and 30 yards rushing against them a month ago.
Ryan Tannehill, MIA vs. NYJ
Tannehill should finish the season strong with a home matchup against the Jets, a team that’s allowed the sixth most points in the league to quarterbacks. Tannehill underwhelmed against the same Jets team in New York in Week 13, but he has averaged over 300 yards and 2 TDs per game since. The Dolphins are relatively healthy offensively and they simply have more to play for than the Jets do.
Eli Manning, NYG vs. Phi
The Eagles have alternated some good defensive outings with several bombs allowing the third most points to quarterbacks.. Eli only produced 8 points against them back in Week 6 and Ryan Nassib finished the game for him. Since then seven of the last nine quarterbacks threw at least two touchdowns against them. Eli is coming off back-to-back games with 3 TDs and 641 yards total. Odell Beckham Jr is on fire, why not ride Eli and Beckham?
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN vs. Chi
Bridgewater has steadily improved as a rookie to the point where he’s probably trustworthy enough to take a flyer on as a wacky Week 17 lineup gamble. The matchup is great against a bad Bears defense allowing the second most points, although he only put up 11 against them back in Week 11. Since then, he has 2 touchdowns in four of five games while averaging 294 yards and almost 20 yards rushing over his last three.
Colin Kaepernick, SF vs. Ari
Kaepernick put up 21 points against the Cardinals earlier in the year despite only throwing one touchdown. He also ran for 54 yards in that game, and I expect to see more of that this week after watching him turn to his legs more last week. The last five quarterbacks (Russell Wilson twice, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan and Shaun Hill) are averaging almost 24 points against them – fourth most in the league in that span.
Running Backs
Jonathan Stewart, Car at ATL
With DeAngelo Williams return to the lineup this week, it’s hard to remain excited or bullish with Stewart but it’s a juicy matchup against a Falcons defense allowing more points to running backs than any other team. The Falcons stoned Williams (38 yards) and Stewart (39 yards) back in Week 11, but four different backs have produced 14 or more points against them in their last three games.
Devonta Freeman ATL vs. Car
Steven Jackson’s quad injury could limit or even sideline him this week against the Panthers. Freeman burst for 84 yards and a touchdown in relief of Jackson last week against the Saints. He should see a few targets in the passing game and at least 5 to 10 carries if Jackson plays; 10 or more if he doesn’t.
Dan “Boom” Herron, Ind at TEN
It’s hard to know if the Cols with give Herron and Trent Richardson a full workload this week or if they’ll hand the reins over to Zurlon Tipton for a week 17 surprise. The Titans have allowed the second most TDs to running backs and fourth most points. Back in week 4, Trent Richardson actually produced 99 yards, 4 catches and a TD while Ahmad Bradshaw complimented him with 52 yards, a TD and a pair of catches.
Doug Martin / Charles Sims, TB vs. NO
The Bucs running back committee yielded 20-66-1 and 6-50-0 against the Saints back in week 5 with Sims emerging as the primary backup and change-of-pace option to Martin in recent weeks. Martin’s upside isn’t even 100 yards, but he could compile 15+ carries this week for 50-to-7- yards and a touchdown with Sims being a double digit PPR sleeper (Bobby Rainey put up 42 yards, 1 TD with 3 catches against them).
Branden Oliver, SD at KC
It’s not a given that Ryan Mathews (ankle) will return to the lineup this week. He didn’t practice on Tuesday, so track his progress and be ready to use Oliver for another week as a flex/upside play in deeper leagues. Oliver got a goal line carry last week, but didn’t convert after finding the end zone the previous week. The Chiefs are a tough nut to crack at the goal line with only 1 TD allowed all year to running backs, but they have allowed the 2nd most rushing yards to running backs.
Ronnie Hillman, DEN vs. Oak
Hillman has a decent chance to see the field this week and the Broncos could give him a decent workload while saving C.J. Anderson for the playoffs. Then again, Hillman could be held out one more week and they could opt for Juwan Thompson. The Raiders have allowed the second most points to RBs and Anderson combined for 163 yards, four catches and a TD against them in Week 10 when Hillman left the game injured.
Chris Polk, Phi at NYG
Polk’s role in the red zone has increased lately and he is facing a Giants defense that gave up 188 rushing yards, 1 TD and two catches for 5 yards to them back in Week 6.
Wide Receivers
Marques Colston, NO at TB
The Saints are technically not playing for anything after being eliminated from the playoffs, but the Bucs are playing for the first overall pick in the draft. Colston is WR37 on the season, but over his last six games he is WR22 with 27-371-3 in that span. Kenny Stills has also been hot down the stretch ranking as WR18 during that same span. In this matchup against a Bucs defense allowing the sixth most points, both Saints receivers are worth a roll of the die. With 149 yards, Colston would top 1,000 yards (Stills needs 151 yards) for the seventh time in his nine year career.
Note: If you’re remotely interested in other receivers who have a shot at 1,000 yards here’s your list: Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Julian Edelman and A.J. Green are all within 41 yards. Sammy Watkins needs 75 yards. Brandon LaFell needs 117 yards. Mike Wallace needs 138, followed by Colston and Stills.
Rueben Randle, NYG vs. Phi
Randle led the Giants in their Week 6 matchup against the Eagles with a modest 5-58-0. Since then, Odell Beckham Jr got healthy, broke into the lineup and the rest is history. Randle has ceded the notion of being the Giants #1 receiver, but that doesn’t mean he’s off the radar. His luster has worn off with inconsistent production with only three double digit point games since that game (including 6-132-1 on Sunday). The Eagles are allowing the fifth most points to receivers and they’ve been scorched in their last three games by DeSean Jackson, Dez Bryant and Doug Baldwin for an average of 24 points per game.
Marqise Lee, Jac at HOU
Lee has caught four or more balls in four straight weeks with 50+ yards in four of his last five games, including 5-67-0 on 8 targets against the Texans a few weeks ago. Houston has allowed the second most points to receivers. Lee’s usage and targets have been solid over the last five games in which he’s seen 36 targets for 22 catches with 1 TD. Lee is late to the rookie breakout party, but he has quietly emerged as the go-to receiver for the Jaguars down the stretch with an eye towards next year with Cecil Shorts an impending free agent.
Eddie Royal, SD at KC
With Keenan Allen out, Royal has become a target rich fantasy option for PPR owners. The Chiefs aren’t the best matchup going for receivers, but Royal is a player that is moved around in motion and throughout the field where he can take advantage of his speed and route running to gain separation quickly for short to intermediate routes. Malcom Floyd remains the best bet in the deep passing game but for PPR owners, Royal is the one you want to target for a potential Week 17 lineup surprise.
Mohamed Sanu, Cin at PIT
Since A.J. Green reemerged in the lineup, Sanu has been eerily quiet with just six catches over his last four games. That being said, the Steelers have been dreadful against the pass in their last four games allowing the most points to receivers in that span. They’ve been giving up big plays to players like T.J. Graham, Nate Washington, Kenny Stills, Harry Douglas and Albert Wilson. Green will get his this week, but he hasn’t been 100% healthy and Sanu certainly has the ability to hit for big plays.
Paul Richardson Jr, SEA vs. Stl
Jermaine Kearse’s hamstring injury propelled Richardson into a more prominent role in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals. Richardson finished with five catches for 52 yards on seven targets and this week he draws a Rams secondary allowing the fourth most points to receivers. Back in Week 7, Doug Baldwin broke out with 7-123-1 against them while Kearse was relatively quiet with 3-50-0 and Richardson 4-33-0. The rookie speed merchant has all the makings for a Week 17 breakout in play this week. Both of the Giants starting receivers broke 100 yards and scored against the Rams on Sunday.
Terrance Williams, Dal at WAS
Williams has been a hit or miss, TD dependent receiver throughout the year. He produced 6-69-0 on seven targets the last time they played in Week 8. Since then, he hasn’t caught more than 2 balls in a game, but Washington has been a target rich environment for opposing receivers allowing the seventh most points – and the most TDs. Riley Cooper caught a pair against them on last Sunday and it was Odell Beckham Jr with three the previous week against them. In Weeks 11 through 13, Mike Evans, Anquan Boldin and Donte Moncrief all went over 100 yards with at least one touchdown against Washington. For deeper PPR leagues, keep slot receiver Colt Beasley in mind as a possible reach.
Kendall Wright, MIN vs. Chi
Charles Johnson left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury paving the way for Wright to play a potentially larger role this Sunday. Johnson played through the injury but his status and health is uncertain for this week’s matchup with a shaky Bears secondary that has allowed the sixth most points to receivers in their last five games. Wright has scored in two of the last three games and he also has a pair of runs off reverses for 23- and 27-yards, too. Johnson produced 6-87-0 in their last meeting. Bridgewater should end the season on a high note with a patsy game against the Bears, so if Johnson is limited or inactive, the pounce on Wright as a viable reach with upside in all scoring formats.
Albert Wilson, KC vs. SD
Wilson was productive last week, as much as a receiver can be with Alex Smith, and the diminutive rookie will get an extended look in the starting lineup with Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery hurting. Wilson has some dynasty stash appeal going into 2015, but the Chargers aren’t the easiest matchup and they are still playing for a spot in the post-season. Consider Wilson only in deeper formats as a what-the-heck flex play.
Tight Ends
Charles Clay, MIA vs. NYJ
Clay has been hampered throughout the season by a nagging knee injury that beset him during the preseason. He has managed to play through the injury most of the season while Bill Lazor seemed almost reticent to utilize his versatile target. This week, Clay draws a Jets defense that has allowed the most touchdown catches to tight ends on the season. Back in Week 13, Clay was inactive against them while Dion Sims filled in productively with 4-58-0. Four of the last five tight ends against the Jets have produced double digit PPR points. Look for Clay to end the season on a high note.
Mychal Rivera, Oak at DEN
Rivera has proven to be a worthwhile reach some weeks, alternating between TE1 production some weeks with nearly nothing in others. The last time the Raiders squared off with the Broncos, Rivera soaked up some garbage time targets in route to a 6-64-1 game.
Jordan Reed, WAS vs. Dal
Dallas has allowed more points to tight ends than any other team in the league. Reed caught 7 balls for 40 yards against them back in Week 8. He has been quiet the last few weeks despite seeing at least four targets in all three games. He’s still a TE2 but his upside could push him into PPR TE1 range this week.
Vernon Davis, SF vs. Ari
Davis has been a complete bust this year and there’s very little reason to believe in him at this point in the season after weeks of futility, but he did demonstrate on Sunday that he still has upside with a hallmark long touchdown catch and run against the Chargers that was called back on a penalty flag. Davis still has it. He just isn’t regularly utilized in the 49ers’ dumpster fire of an offense. That said, last week Luke Willson roasted the Cardinals for a pair of touchdowns and well over 100 yards. They’ve allowed the third most points to tight ends and Davis was inactive when they met earlier in the season (Week 3). Maybe Davis will tease us with a solid Week 17 outing, enough to not write him off completely for next season.
Defense/Special Teams
Houston vs. Jacksonville
Release the cracken! Or, at least ride the coattails of J.J. Watt in a home game with an outside shot at the playoffs against the Jaguars offense allowing the most fantasy points this year to opposing defenses.
Dallas at Washington
The Cowboys defense mixed it up well against Andrew Luck and the high flying Colts offense last week at home, but it’s been on the road where this Cowboys team has excelled all season long. Robert Griffin III III has been shaky and Dallas will do everything they can make his life in the pocket this week miserable. Washington has also allowed the sixth most points to defenses.
Minnesota vs. Chicago
Let’s face it. The Bears are a hot mess finishing out the season while the Vikings are at least showing signs of promise for the future. It’s a home game with no playoffs or anything else on the line. I’d much rather roll with a defense that’s playing for something, but in the absence of that, I’d opt for just about any worthwhile defense with a home game against this Bears team as a fall back option with entertaining upside appeal.