This article takes a look at players from each of the positions in your starting lineup who have interesting matchups. Not all players covered are your classic sleepers who might outperform expectations. Some are nominal starters with tricky matchups or players who might be deep sleepers in smaller leagues, but starters in larger leagues. Realizing that leagues and roster sizes vary wildly; your mileage could vary, too.
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers, SD vs. Det
One of the favorite targets for the wait-on-quarterback draft strategists, Rivers is long on talent and production but short on draft day love as a top 10 QB. The Lions were on the tougher side of passing matchups last year but this is a new year and the Lions have to prove they are still one of the league’s top defensive units. Playing on the left coast won’t help their cause and facing Rivers won’t either. My guess is that the Chargers have less success on the ground than in the passing game – even without Antonio Gates. Look for Rivers to target his secondary receivers like Steve Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Ladarius Green and Malcom Floyd, or whoever is matched up against nickel corner Josh Wilson and veteran corner Reshean Mathis.
Sam Bradford, PHI vs. Atl
It remains to be seen how efficient Bradford will be leading Chip Kelly’s offense, but it’s a safe bet to say that his prior production will improve across the board just as it has for almost essentially every other quarterback that has played under Kelly. We watched Mark Sanchez improve his metrics across the board. We’ve watched Nick Foles crash back to Earth with the Rams after flying high with the Eagles. It’s not like Bradford lacks talent either. And at least he’s healthy for now, so strike while the iron is hot. Don’t overthink it. The Falcons defense was a hot mess last year and Vegas has this game set with the highest over/under at 54.5 points. The bigger challenge you may have is whether to start Bradford over the first quarterback you drafted.
Carson Palmer, ARI vs. NO
Palmer was performing at a high level last year before getting hurt and he draws a Saints pass defense that was among the bottom third in the league last year and is also without their top corner Keenan Lewis (who underwent hip surgery last week). That leaves Brandon Browner as their top corner, the same Browner that’s well known for his physical play as much as for getting burned or for being among the league’s most flagged corners for pass interference. Advantage: Palmer.
Teddy Bridgewater, Min at SF
Entering his sophomore season, Bridgewater is an ascendant talent who performed well down the stretch with a rag tag group of skilled players at his disposal. Now, he has Adrian Peterson in the backfield, Mike Wallace as a deep threat, Kyle Rudolph as a viable two-way tight end and looming red zone threat, a solid WR2 in Charles Johnson and a dangerous after the catch slot receiver in Jarius Wright. What’s not to like? I don’t like the 49ers much after losing key starters at each level of the defense and on both sides of the ball.
Tyrod Taylor, BUF vs. Ind
In larger or 2-quarterback leagues, Taylor is an intriguing play as a two-way threat who can hurt a defense with his legs as much as with his strong arm. I wouldn’t start Taylor in 12- or even 14- team leagues, but as a second quarterback he should easily outperform expectations. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes Week 1 among the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks.
Running Backs
Doug Martin, TB vs. Ten
Incoming Buccaneer’s offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter went to bat for Martin after joining the team, pounding the table for the front office to keep him after a rough two year slide. But Martin answered the bell, looked and had by all accounts a consistently good offseason and training camp. Yet many people haven’t come back to the Doug Martin camp. This week will be a great litmus test for his renaissance. The Titans were one of the worst run defenses in the league last year allowing the second most yards and third most rushing touchdowns. The Titans starting nose tackle Sammie Lee Hill underwent MCL surgery last week and will miss the first three games. The Bucs offensive line has its own problems, but not facing Hill this week isn’t one of them. Martin may cede passing downs to Charles Sims, but the Bucs should be competitive at home and Martin just might run hot out of the gate.
DeAngelo Williams, Pit at NE
With Le’Veon Bell suspended to open the season, Williams slides right into a starting role in one of the league’s dominant offenses. His window of productivity with confined to the first two weeks barring a Bell injury. While the Steelers have talked about having FB Will Johnson split reps, there really isn’t any competition for carries. Williams should see a workload consistent with that of a featured back. Buy.
Darren McFadden, DAL vs. NYG
Joseph Randle might start and he could get the first crack against a questionable Giants defense that allowed the third most rushing yards, seventh most rushing TDs, and they’re still without Jason Pierre-Paul. McFadden, on the other hand, could wind up playing the most snaps and delivering the most value. It’s anyone’s guess, but McFadden should see at least 10 touches behind the league’s premiere offensive line. Admit it. You saw him play and LOOK GOOD in the preseason and it’s been messing with you since, enough that you took a flyer on him in your draft. He’s too shaky to count on as a RB2, but as a RB3/flex he has RB2 plenty of upside and is worth the risk.
Danny Woodhead, SD vs. Det
Woodhead has been the darling of just about every undervalued or sleeper article published this preseason. He’s back in a familiar role that ranked him among the top 20 backs in normal and PPR scoring two years ago and Antonio Gates will miss the first four games. Melvin Gordon is highly touted, but Woodhead should continue to dominate passing downs and all snaps in the hurry-up or two-minute offense. Juxtapose that with the Lions defensive line losing two of their best players up front in Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Woodhead is an ideal flex/RB3, but in PPR leagues he’s even a viable stretch as a RB2 in 12- and 14- team leagues.
Alfred Blue, HOU vs. KC
Arian Foster is sidelined for at least the next few weeks giving Blue a shot for RB2 value. Unfortunately, Blue will probably cede passing downs to Carlos Polk. The Chiefs hope to have starting NT Dontari Poe back for this game after having back surgery in July. Poe’s presence is good news for the Chiefs, but he may not be 100% yet if he does go. Blue has limited upside, but he could see enough carries to make for a solid flex until we get a better feel for his role and potential volume.
Ryan Matthews (Phi at Atl)
This former starter, now second stringer, is playing in one of the top two games that Vegas projects to be the highest scoring this week with over/unders in the low-to-mid 50s. DeMarco Murray could get 50-to-60 percentof the touches, but there’s always more pie to split in a Chip Kelly offense. Matthews could consistently see double digit touches on a weekly basis. Atlanta allowed 21 rushing TDs last year(most in the league) and finished 12th in yards allowed. Like McFadden, Matthews projects as a strong flex/RB3, upside play in 12- or 14- team leagues in a potentially high scoring game.
Joique Bell, Det at SD
The Chargers were essentially a neutral matchup for running backs last year and Bell was almost forgotten by the side of the road this preseason due to the breakout potential of Ameer Abdullah and the concern that goes with a 30-year old back recovering from multiple injuries. You’ll have to trust Bell sight unseen in this one and hope he sees enough touches to be worthwhile. Theo Riddick, Abdullah and even UDFA Zach Zenner all could see touches, but as long as Bell is healthy and starting then he’ll have solid TD potential and he just might scratch out enough yards and/or catches to be a RB2 at least.
Benny Cunningham, STL vs. Sea
It could be the Benny Cunningham show for the next few weeks with Todd Gurley still working his way back onto the field and Tre Mason possibly unable to go with a hamstring injury. It’s a poor matchup for sure, but Cunningham’s value has more to do with his receiving skills than anything else. He’s basically a “what the heck” flex this week, but in deeper PPR leagues he has RB2 upside.
Wide Receivers
Nelson Agholor, Phi at ATL
Chip Kelly didn’t hand anything over to his talented rookie in training camp, making him earn a spot in the starting lineup. Against a Falcons defense that allowed the seventh most points to receivers a year ago, Agholor has a legitimate chance to be productive right out of the gate. Armed with excellent speed, elusiveness and the ability to take any catch to the house, Agholor should see enough targets in the volume-happy Eagles offense to return WR2/WR3 value.
John Brown, Ari vs. NO
Even though Michael Floyd might return to the starting lineup for this week’s opener, Brown remains a solid WR3/flex option against a beatable Saints secondary that is without Keenan Lewis, their top corner. Two of Brown’s three most productive games as a rookie came when Carson Palmer was healthy. Even though he’s listed as the team’s third receiver, he arguably has the most upside and he’ll probably have the best matchup of the three.
Steve Johnson, SD vs. Det
Johnson is one of my favorite receivers at his draft position this season. You’d think he’s 35 years old and no longer capable of being a productive fantasy player, but that’s just not the truth. The chorus of praise for Johnson coming out of Chargers camp has been steadyall summer. Eddie Royal caught 15 touchdowns from Philip Rivers in this spot over the last two years. With Antonio Gates suspended, Johnson could see even more targets than usual and he has a chance to catch even more touchdowns than Royal did.
Eddie Royal, CHI vs. GB
With Alshon Jeffery’s mysterious calf injury casting doubt on his status for the opener and Kevin White out for the foreseeable future, Royal, TE Martellus Bennettand Matt Forte become the team’s top targets for Jay Cutler. Royal’s 91-catch rookie season in Denver came in the same offense he’s playing in now and Cutler was his quarterback then as well.It’s back to the future time for Royal. Break out the hover board.
Markus Wheaton, Pit at NE
While Martavis Bryant serves a four game suspension, Markus Wheaton essentially gets a do-over. He began last season as a starter but his rapport with Ben Roethlisberger was awful. The two were never on the same page and Wheaton flamed out as Bryant took flight. A year wiser, perhaps, and buoyed by Ben Roethlisberger’s support and above average route running chops, Wheaton just might make good on his second chance.
Danny Amendola, NE vs. Pit
The Steelers allowed the most points to opposing wide receivers in the league over the second half of last season. And by the way they played during the preseason, there’s reason to believe that they haven’t stopped the bleeding either. Brandon LaFell landed on the PUP list to start the season giving Amendola an opportunity to start opposite Julian Edelman, and he finished last season strong with 34 catches and 3 touchdowns over the final five games of the season (including the playoffs).
Allen Hurns, JAC vs. Car
Allen Robinson is the Jaguar’s #1 receiver, poised to breakout now that he’s healthy entering his second season. Allen Hurns, who led the team as a rookie with 677 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, easily locked down the other starting job with Marquise Lee missing most of camp and still on the mend. Hurns looks like the team’s No. 2 target. Even though we train ourselves to be impervious to preseason fallacies, sometimes we have to trust what we see. Blake Bortles looked good as a rookie in preseason, but fell on his face when the games mattered. This year, he genuinely looks better from his mechanics to improved pocket awareness to him just throwing with more confidence. If he improves even 20%, there’ll be enough targets for both Robinson and Hurns to be productive. In deeper leagues, Hurns isn’t a bad reach but you’ll probably leave him along in 10 and 12 team standard leagues.
Tight Ends
Jordan Cameron, Mia at Was
Cameron didn’t really make any noise in the preseason, so perhaps he’ll do so out of the gate against a Washington defense that was brutal against tight ends last year – allowing the third most points and the most pointsin the second half of the season. They allowed 17 or more points (PPR) five teams in that span to the likes of Jared Cook, Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz, Chase Ford and Jason Witten. With Cameron, I strongly advise you to strike while the iron is hot – or at least while he’s healthy because it might not last long.
Tyler Eifert, Cin at Oak
This group of tight ends reads like a “better start them before they get hurt” segment. With Eifert, we’re talking about a highly ranked and athletic prospect, now fully recovered from last season’s shoulder injury, who was recently deemed “uncoverable” during training camp. It’s not like the Bengals have many other players behind him either. Eifert should dominate snaps and give Andy Dalton a reliable second option to pair with A.J. Green who could eat up defenses underneath and in the seams with Marvin Jones stretching the field and keeping safeties honest.
Kyle Rudolph, Min at SF
Finally healthy, Rudolph became a popular target in drafts for those who missed on Rob Gronkowski or planned to wait before rostering their first tight end. Rudolph has always been a looming red zone presence and opponents simply can’t key on him now with Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson on the field, too. The 49ers offseason losses are well documented on both sides of the ball, but their defense was especially impacted and they were already a top 6 matchup for tight ends in the second half of last season.
Ladarius Green, SD vs. Det
Dynasty owners of Green finally get a chance to roll with him in the season opener with Antonio Gates serving a four game suspension. Long on talent and short on playing time, he has the measurables to be a difference maker with a talented, confident quarterback like Philip Rivers targeting him. The Lions defense should continue to be formidable, but they will be tested on the road without Ndamukong Suh in the middle. If you drafted Green, you likely did it targeting these first four games so no need to get shy with him now.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB vs. Ten
Seferian-Jenkins has a conspicuously quiet preseason and he’s had problems staying healthy throughout his collegiate and brief NFL career, yet we all heard how good he looked in OTAs and training camp from those close to the team. He’s a king-sized target for a rookie quarterback who routinely found his tight end (Nick O’Leary) in college when plays broke down. It’s a bit of a reach to start him out of the gate with barely anything to go on but practice highlights, but the Titans were a favorable matchup last year and Seferian-Jenkins has the look of a player ready to produce a 50-catch season.
Good matchups, last year?
These tight ends matchup against the six worst defenses last year in terms of fantasy points allowed and not one of these players was drafted as a TE1 unless you really waited to roster one. Another data point to consider - these players are in five of the six highest scoring games predicted by Vegas with over/unders at 46 or higher. They are listed in order of preference:
- Charles Clay, Buf vs. Ind
- Larry Donnell, NYG at Dal
- Richard Rodgers, GB vs. Chi
- Crockett Gillmore, Bal at Den
- Ben Watson, NO at Ari
Defense/Special Teams
Miami Dolphins at Washington
You’re looking at a matchup between a pair of teams heading in opposite directions. It feels like the Dolphins defense, and team overall, are on the cusp of making a playoff run with the signing of marquee free agent Ndamukong Suh to anchor an already disruptive front seven while Washington enters the season with a Robert Griffin III hangover still lingering. Kirk Cousins looks like that neighbor’s lawn whose grass is always greener, yet we already know it’s not. Cousins has 19 interceptions in 14 career games. Washington’s offensive line was a mess last year and was a contributing factor to the demise of Griffin III.
Green Bay vs. Chicago
Jay Cutler has thrown 10 interceptions and the Bears have scored 82 points in their last five games against the Packers. Alshon Jeffery’s (calf) status is a bit unclear and the Bears top healthy receiver appears to be Eddie Royal.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston
I’m not wild about the Chiefs defense this week as I vastly prefer them at home, but the Texans offense is without Arian Foster and we already know that Brian Hoyer is the kind of quarterback you don’t shy away from when looking for a defense to stream. Hoyer probably won’t self -destruct at home in Week 1, but he’s averaging about a touchdown and interceptions per game. He’s as average or blasé as it gets and Alfred Blue is a backup quality back.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans
As the top two picks in this year’s NFL draft open their NFL careers against each other it’s the opposing defenses that might actually be the worthwhile fantasy options. Both defenses could be worthwhile in deeper leagues even though neither one of them are being counted on as anything other than streaming or backup options. Given the choice, I’ll go with the Buccaneers at home. Mariota looked reasonably sharp in the preseason, but so did Blake Bortles last year. He’s still a rookie making his NFL debut on the road. On the flipside, I could easily see a scenario unfold where the Titans force Jameis Winston into multiple turnovers and stifle the Bucs running game.
