Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | NY Jets | -16 | 47 | 31.5 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| New England | Pittsburgh | -3 | 53 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
| Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -6 | 48 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
| Minnesota | Cincinnati | -10.5 | 42 | 26.25 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Carolina | Green Bay | -3 | 47 | 25 | + | + | |
| Jacksonville | Houston | -11 | 39 | 25 | + | ++ | +++ |
| Pittsburgh | New England | 3 | 53 | 25 | + | + | |
| Detroit | Chicago | -5.5 | 44 | 24.75 | + | + | + |
| Seattle | LA Rams | -2 | 47.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Dallas | Oakland | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | + | + | |
| Washington | Arizona | -4.5 | 43.5 | 24 | + | + | + |
| LA Chargers | Kansas City | -1.5 | 46 | 23.75 | |||
| Philadelphia | NY Giants | -7.5 | 40 | 23.75 | + | + | |
| Baltimore | Cleveland | -7 | 40 | 23.5 | + | ||
| San Francisco | Tennessee | -2 | 44 | 23 | |||
| LA Rams | Seattle | 2 | 47.5 | 22.75 | |||
| Kansas City | LA Chargers | 1.5 | 46 | 22.25 | |||
| Green Bay | Carolina | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
| Denver | Indianapolis | -2.5 | 40.5 | 21.5 | + | ||
| Oakland | Dallas | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||
| Tennessee | San Francisco | 2 | 44 | 21 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 6 | 48 | 21 | |||
| Miami | Buffalo | 0 | 41 | 20.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Miami | 0 | 41 | 20.5 | |||
| Arizona | Washington | 4.5 | 43.5 | 19.5 | |||
| Chicago | Detroit | 5.5 | 44 | 19.25 | |||
| Indianapolis | Denver | 2.5 | 40.5 | 19 | |||
| Cleveland | Baltimore | 7 | 40 | 16.5 | |||
| NY Giants | Philadelphia | 7.5 | 40 | 16.25 | |||
| Cincinnati | Minnesota | 10.5 | 42 | 15.75 | |||
| NY Jets | New Orleans | 16 | 47 | 15.5 | |||
| Houston | Jacksonville | 11 | 39 | 14 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Dion Lewis/Rex Burkhead (Patriots), Latavius Murray/Jerick McKinnon (Vikings)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Josh Hill (Saints), Chris Hogan/Brandin Cooks/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Jaguars
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Case Keenum (Vikings)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Leonard Fournette (Jaguars)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings)
- Defense: Saints, Vikings
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Cam Newton (Panthers), Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Kirk Cousins (Redskins)
- Running Back: Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffery (Panthers), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Ameer Abdullah/Theo Riddick (Lions), Mike Davis (Seahawks), Alfred Morris (Cowboys), Samaje Perine (Redskins), Jay Ajayi/LeGarrette Blount (Eagles)
- Receivers: Devin Funchess/Damiere Byrd/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Marqise Lee/Dede Westbrook/Marcedes Lewis (Jaguars), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers), Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron (Lions), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Paul Richardson Jr/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Josh Doctson/Jamison Crowder/Vernon Davis (Redskins)
- Defense: Eagles, Ravens, Broncos, Lions, Redskins
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags
Daily FF
DraftKings
Ameer Abdullah
Danny Amendola
Le'Veon Bell
Blake Bortles
Tom Brady
Antonio Brown
Martavis Bryant
Rex Burkhead
Damiere Byrd
Tevin Coleman
Brandin Cooks
Kirk Cousins
Jamison Crowder
Mike Davis
Stefon Diggs
Josh Doctson
Eric Ebron
Leonard Fournette
Devonta Freeman
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Chris Hogan
Austin Hooper
Mark Ingram II
Julio Jones
Marvin Jones Jr
Alvin Kamara
Case Keenum
Marcedes Lewis
Tyler Lockett
Jerick McKinnon
Latavius Murray
Cam Newton
Samaje Perine
Dak Prescott
Ben Roethlisberger
Kyle Rudolph
Matt Ryan
Mohamed Sanu
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Matthew Stafford
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
Dede Westbrook
Russell Wilson
