Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | NY Jets | -9 | 48 | 28.5 | +++ | ++ | + |
| Indianapolis | New Orleans | -5 | 52 | 28.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | Baltimore | -7.5 | 48 | 27.75 | +++ | ++ | |
| Atlanta | Tennessee | -4 | 48 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
| San Diego | Oakland | -4 | 46.5 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Carolina | Philadelphia | -4 | 46.5 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Miami | Houston | -4 | 44.5 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| NY Giants | Dallas | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| Seattle | San Francisco | -6 | 42 | 24 | + | + | ++ |
| Minnesota | Detroit | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | + | + | |
| Buffalo | Jacksonville | -5 | 42 | 23.5 | |||
| New Orleans | Indianapolis | 5 | 52 | 23.5 | + | ||
| Jacksonville | Buffalo | -5 | 42 | 23.5 | |||
| St. Louis | Cleveland | -5.5 | 41.5 | 23.5 | ++ | ||
| Washington | Tampa Bay | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | + | ||
| Pittsburgh | Kansas City | -2 | 44 | 23 | |||
| Tennessee | Atlanta | 4 | 48 | 22 | |||
| Oakland | San Diego | 4 | 46.5 | 21.25 | |||
| Philadelphia | Carolina | 4 | 46.5 | 21.25 | |||
| Kansas City | Pittsburgh | 2 | 44 | 21 | |||
| Dallas | NY Giants | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
| Detroit | Minnesota | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Houston | Miami | 4 | 44.5 | 20.25 | |||
| Baltimore | Arizona | 7.5 | 48 | 20.25 | + | ||
| NY Jets | New England | 9 | 48 | 19.5 | + | ||
| Tampa Bay | Washington | 4 | 43 | 19.5 | |||
| Cleveland | St. Louis | 5.5 | 41.5 | 18 | |||
| San Francisco | Seattle | 6 | 42 | 18 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount/Dion Lewis (Patriots), Andre Ellington/Chris Johnson/David Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Andrew Luck (Colts), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Frank Gore (Colts), Devonta Freeman (Falcons)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), TY Hilton/Donte Moncrief (Colts), Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/Michael Floyd (Cardinals), Julio Jones/Roddy White/Jacob Tamme (Falcons)
- Defense: Seahawks, Rams
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Philip Rivers (Chargers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Eli Manning (Giants), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings), Drew Brees (Saints), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets)
- Running Back: Melvin Gordon/Danny Woodhead (Chargers), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Lamar Miller (Dolphins), Rashad Jennings/Shane Vereen (Giants), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks), Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
- Receivers: Keenan Allen/Steve Johnson/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Jarvis Landry/Jordan Cameron (Dolphins), Odell Beckham JrRueben Randle (Giants), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Mike Wallace/Stefon Diggs/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Ben Watson (Saints), Steve Smith/Kamar Aiken/Crockett Gillmore (Ravens), Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker (Jets)
- Defense: Patriots, Redskins
