Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Indianapolis | -8 | 55 | 31.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Green Bay | San Diego | -10 | 50 | 30 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Atlanta | New Orleans | -3.5 | 51 | 27.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Philadelphia | NY Giants | -4 | 50 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | Pittsburgh | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | + | + | |
| Minnesota | Kansas City | -4 | 44 | 24 | + | + | + |
| Seattle | Carolina | -7 | 41 | 24 | ++ | + | +++ |
| Cincinnati | Buffalo | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
| New Orleans | Atlanta | 3.5 | 51 | 23.75 | |||
| NY Jets | Washington | -6.5 | 40.5 | 23.5 | + | +++ | |
| Indianapolis | New England | 8 | 55 | 23.5 | ++ | ||
| Chicago | Detroit | -3.5 | 43 | 23.25 | + | ||
| Denver | Cleveland | -4 | 42 | 23 | ++ | ||
| Baltimore | San Francisco | -2.5 | 43.5 | 23 | |||
| NY Giants | Philadelphia | 4 | 50 | 23 | |||
| Tennessee | Miami | -2.5 | 43.5 | 23 | |||
| Houston | Jacksonville | -1.5 | 43.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | Houston | 1.5 | 43.5 | 21 | |||
| Miami | Tennessee | 2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Arizona | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Baltimore | 2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Cincinnati | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
| Kansas City | Minnesota | 4 | 44 | 20 | |||
| San Diego | Green Bay | 10 | 50 | 20 | + | ||
| Detroit | Chicago | 3.5 | 43 | 19.75 | |||
| Cleveland | Denver | 4 | 42 | 19 | |||
| Washington | NY Jets | 6.5 | 40.5 | 17 | + | ||
| Carolina | Seattle | 7 | 41 | 17 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount/Dion Lewis (Patriots), Eddie Lacy (Packers),
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Randall Cobb/James Jones (Packers)
- Defense: Seahawks, Jets
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Sam Bradford (Eagles), Andrew Luck (Colts)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman (Falcons), DeMarco Murray/Ryan Mathews (Eagles), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Leonard Hankerson (Falcons), Jordan Matthews/Nelson Agholor (Eagles), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief (Colts)
- Defense: Broncos
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Cam Newton (Panthers)
- Running Back: Chris Johnson/Andre Ellington/David Johnson (Cardinals), Adrian Peterson (Vikings), Chris Ivory (Jets)
- Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown (Cardinals), Mike Wallace/Stefon Diggs/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse (Seahawks), Keenan Allen/Steve Johnson/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/Derek Carrier (Redskins), Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers)
- Defense: Packers, Vikings, Bears
