Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | -10 | 47.5 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Jacksonville | -3.5 | 52 | 27.75 | ++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | Cleveland | -12.5 | 43 | 27.75 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
| Carolina | Atlanta | -7 | 47.5 | 27.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | Green Bay | -4.5 | 49.5 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
| Seattle | St. Louis | -13.5 | 40.5 | 27 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
| Detroit | San Francisco | -9.5 | 43 | 26.25 | ++ | + | ++ |
| Oakland | San Diego | -5 | 47 | 26 | + | + | |
| Minnesota | NY Giants | -6 | 45.5 | 25.75 | + | + | |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Buffalo | Dallas | -6.5 | 42.5 | 24.5 | + | ||
| Jacksonville | New Orleans | 3.5 | 52 | 24.25 | |||
| New England | NY Jets | -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Chicago | -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | |||
| Houston | Tennessee | -3.5 | 42.5 | 23 | |||
| Miami | Indianapolis | -1.5 | 44 | 22.75 | |||
| Green Bay | Arizona | 4.5 | 49.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Washington | Philadelphia | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
| Denver | Cincinnati | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | + | ||
| Chicago | Tampa Bay | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||
| Indianapolis | Miami | 1.5 | 44 | 21.25 | |||
| NY Jets | New England | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||
| San Diego | Oakland | 5 | 47 | 21 | |||
| Atlanta | Carolina | 7 | 47.5 | 20.25 | |||
| NY Giants | Minnesota | 6 | 45.5 | 19.75 | |||
| Tennessee | Houston | 3.5 | 42.5 | 19.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 10 | 47.5 | 18.75 | + | ||
| Cincinnati | Denver | 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||
| Dallas | Buffalo | 6.5 | 42.5 | 18 | |||
| San Francisco | Detroit | 9.5 | 43 | 16.75 | |||
| Cleveland | Kansas City | 12.5 | 43 | 15.25 | + | ||
| St. Louis | Seattle | 13.5 | 40.5 | 13.5 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), Charcandrick West/Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Christine Michael/Bryce Brown (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Heath Miller (Steelers), Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Ben Watson (Saints)
- Defense: Chiefs, Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Alex Smith (Chiefs), Cam Newton (Panthers), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Tim Hightower (Saints), Cameron Artis-Payne/Fozzy Whittaker (Panthers), David Johnson (Cardinals), Joique Bell/Ameer Abdullah/Theo Riddick (Lions)
- Receivers: Jeremy Maclin/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Ted Ginn Jr/Corey Brown/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/Michael Floyd (Cardinals), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Jermaine Kearse (Seahawks)
- Defense: Lions
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (Lions), Derek Carr (Raiders), Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings), Sam Bradford (Eagles), Jimmy Claussen (Ravens), Johnny Manziel (Browns), Case Keenum (Rams)
- Running Back: Latavius Murray (Raiders), Adrian Peterson (Vikings), Ryan Mathews/Darren Sproles (Eagles)
- Receivers: Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron (Lions), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Clive Walford (Raiders), Stefon Diggs/Mike Wallace/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Jordan Matthews/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Kamar Aiken/Chris Givens/Maxx Williams (Ravens), Travis Benjamin/Taylor Gabriel/Gary Barnidge (Browns), Tavon Austin/Kenny Britt/Jared Cook (Rams)
- Defense: Bill, Broncos
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