Reading the Defense: Linebacker Tiers [First 2015 Update]

Photo: USA Today Sports

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers of equal value left on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

HOW TO USE THE TIERS

Note 1: These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only. I stopped producing dynasty rankings years ago when it became clear I weighted the current season significantly more than future years. In deeper dynasty leagues, I'll save a roster slot for a strong developmental prospect but will otherwise use these tiers as my primary roster philosophy. I'll include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.

Note 2: I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). Early in the offseason, I'll deviate from the Rotoworld depth chart when I'm reasonably certain a positional change is coming that Rotoworld will reflect later in the offseason.

Note 3: I will add a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers in future articles. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release. For reference, you'll be able to see the earlier versions of these tier articles within the IDP article list, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. I'll also be including an ADP column. The ADP number will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings, and ADP data from drafts at MFL.

Finally, the date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Each update will be published as a stand-alone article. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.

That's a necessary, but way too long, introduction to the important stuff. Thanks for bearing with me.

EARLY LB STRATEGY THOUGHTS

Linebacker could be deep again this season. Of course, it looked that way at many points over the past two years before injuries began to decimate the top tiers. There are more names among the top tiers than there has been in years -- but they are in tiers of limbo.

The Elite LB1 Upside tier is very deep. Some of these players will absolutely ascend to the Elite LB1 tier, others will drop into the Risk-Reward LB2 tier. But it's likely I'll have 12-15 names in the top two tiers again. That, along with the (likely) lack of depth at DL, means it should again be possible to target linebackers at value in your drafts this summer.

We'll see if that strategy holds after free agency, the draft and OTAs.

I'm not ready to declare many linebackers as clear Elite LB1 caliber fantasy options yet. There will absolutely be more than two players in this tier by summer, but a lot can happen between now and the beginning of camp.

I'm very comfortable with the majority of players in the Elite LB1 upside tier. You may want to proceed with caution with those coming off season-ending injuries, but every injured player in this tier should still have the talent to be an elite fantasy player.

I'm looking forward to making a more definitive call on these players after free agency and the draft.

TIER 1 | elite lb1

Kuechly and David are safe elite options. Barring injury, nothing will happen between now and August to convince me to move either out of the top two spots in this tier.

tier 1a | elite lb1 upside

This tier has it all. Established veterans, talents still recovering from serious injury, young players who look likely to live in this tier for years to come and older players who should still have a strong year left in their tanks.

However, I could make an argument against each one of them not providing elite value this year. Some of those arguments would be weaker than others, but it's enough to keep me from fully endorsing them as top five values at this point in the offseason.

Here's the point where I remind everyone -- veteran and newbie readers alike -- that I'm a lumper, not a splitter.

That means I group players based on roster type, not how they'd rank. In other words. those at the top of the High Floor LB2 tier would rank ahead of those at the end of the Risk-Reward LB2 tier. For example, I'd recommend drafting Curtis Lofton ahead of every Risk-Reward LB other than Lawrence Timmons. You may choose to take a higher risk player (or a rush LB) in balanced leagues based on your own personal roster philosophy.

These tiers are my way of saying -- X player has a higher floor than a higher variance Y player but both are likely to finish in the 10-25 range at year's end if things break as expected.

tier 2a | risk-reward lb2

Timmons, Trevathan, Brown and possibly Bostic could move up to the LB1 ranks. For now, I don't like their respective floors enough to rank in a higher tier. But there will undoubtedly be some mixing of this tier and the one above in future updates.

tier 2b | high floor lb2

I doubt I'll have anyone other than Lofton on my rosters this year from this group. I see more downside here than upside.

tier 2c | rush / big play lb2

I've got Mack ranked fourth in this tier right now and I don't like it. It's going to be hard to slot him over established options like Houston, Miller and Jones. But that group might well be 1A through 1D for me. Don't sleep on Mack this year.

Unlike the second tier, I'll generally always draft the 3A players over the 3B players. When looking for back end lineup and roster players, I'd much rather have a player with an outside shot at the top 10 than a player with a top 40-50 floor but lesser upside.

tier 3a | upside lb3

I love these three players, but wouldn't be comfortable taking them as LB2s yet. 

tier 3b | high floor lb3

These five players are valuable enough to separate from the large group of matchup dependent depth types that won't make this article. But don't shy away from targeting many of the players in the tier jumper list over these high floor - low upside names.

tier jumpers | redraft watch list

This group will get progressively smaller as the offseason progresses. By the time my final update is published in August, nearly every player on this list will have found a home in a higher tier or have been deleted from the article entirely.

The deeper you go on this list, the less likely I'd be to hold a roster spot. But all warrant close observation as we move through free agency and offseason workouts. Players like Brown, Williamson and Lansanah have LB2 tier upside. Others may not rise above the Upside LB3 tier.

matchup rush lb

dynasty stash

I won't argue with anyone who wants to draft Borland in a deeper redraft league. But if Bowman and Willis are healthy, Borland will be a reserve on opening weekend. And, while acknowledging there's no upside in sight, I'm not giving up on Brown's fantasy value yet.

2015 prospect watch

Lots more to come on these prospects over the next few weeks -- check out this extended discussion I had with Matt Waldman on Eric Kendricks for a preview of what's to come -- but I think we'll add at least 3-4 rookies to the draftable tiers this summer.

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.