Welcome to Week 4 of The Docket, a weekly column that will highlight rule and policy issues effecting players as well as offer strategy and advice on a select few players that you should be targeting or avoiding.
ON TRIAL
This is where we will highlight pressing issues that will have a major impact on your season.
Adrian Peterson (RB, Minn) – Peterson has been placed on the Exempt/Commissioner’s List and is essentially out indefinitely until his court case is settled. Normally, a case such as this would take months if not a year or more to settle, but there are reports that Adrian Peterson is trying to expedite his case. There are a couple problems with this: Firstly, there are a lot of people that would like to expedite their trials and Peterson is not going to receive any sort of special treatment; Secondly, he is facing a real threat of jail time, so this is not something he can necessarily settle quickly, if at all. Yet, Peterson’s best hope of playing this year is to come to some sort of resolution with the District Attorney and settle the case if he can. Whether that is possible or not, it is tough to say at the moment.
Nevertheless, even if Peterson is able to settle the case and avoid a conviction, he is likely going to be suspended by the NFL for at least 6 games, if not many more under the leagues new domestic violence policy. There have also been reports that the Viking’s are done with him regardless, which could also complicate him getting back on the field any time soon. So even after a suspension, he will still need to find a team willing to bring him on. All of this amounts to Peterson not playing football in the NFL for a very long time, if ever again given his age. Although, if any running back is going to be able to play at a high level after the age of 30, it is Peterson. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, that will probably only be in a year or two. If you own him, trade him for whatever you can get, but don’t drop him just yet, who knows, maybe Jerry Jones will come to the rescue.
ON THE STAND
This is where we look at issues that could have an impact on your season.
Benefit of the Doubt – If you think you are the only person to have an inconsistent or under achieving marquee player on our team, you’re wrong. Almost every team has one or two of them. And if you don’t, you are either lucky or you had no idea what you were doing when you drafted. When Ryan Fitzpatrick has essentially the same number of points as Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, when LeSean McCoy is the #15 RB, when Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles are well outside the top 25, when Delanie Walker is the #3 TE, you know something is going wacky. So don’t start second guessing your draft or your evaluation of players, this year has just been down right odd. Between suspensions, injuries, poor play and bad matchups, this is one of the most unpredictable fantasy seasons in recent memory.
But what to do? 1) You are going to have to live and die with your studs. And by studs, I mean guys like Jamaal Charles, Keenan Allen, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy and the like. I do not mean guys you drafted in the 4th round and beyond, like Toby Gerhart. And if you drafted him in the 3rd, well, that’s on you. 2) Play the waiver wire. The next Zac Stacy is out there, it happens every year. We’ve already seen guys like Isaiah Crowell, Niles Paul and Kirk Cousins emerge as viable weekly starters. Watch out for some other deep sleepers like Storm Johnson on the Jaguars, Brandon Oliver on the Chargers and CJ Anderson on Denver. And if you need receiver help and Marvin Jones is out there, grab him now. 3) Don’t be afraid to bench players that are underperforming for players that are getting it done. Good examples of this are benching Tom Brady for Cousins or Keenan Allen for Steve Smith. Don’t cut your studs, but feel free to hold them out if you have a guy getting it done. 4) Make some trades, be bold. That said, don’t ever sell low; so don’t trade Eddie Lacy for someone like Steve Smith or Lamar Miller. But, put good trades together. If you are not a Jamaal Charles owner and have Niles Davis, trade him to the Charles owner and get some good value for him. If you have Cutler and Stafford, trade one away for a stud RB or WR.
CASE PENDING
This is where we look at select players who are on the verge of an upgrade or downgrade.
Tom Brady (QB, NE) - Brady hasn’t looked like the Brady we have come to know and love dating back to last season. Many have blamed this on his wide receiving core, but he is just not throwing the ball well right now. Don’t drop Brady, but you also can’t rely on him right now, so you need to get another option at QB.
Torrey Smith (WR, Bal) – Smith’s stats have been horrible so far this year. He has 6 catches for 85 yards on 18 targets. Right now, he has to be on your bench. That said, he could also go off for 3 tds and 150 yards any given week. But on a week-to-week basis, you just can’t trust him until that happens. There are signs of life though. In Week 3 he at least led the team with 8 targets, although he only caught 2 passes for 25 yards. But he did get good separation on a number of plays and was wide open in the end zone on one. Unfortunately, Flaco wasn’t looking his way.
Vikings – It’s tough to trust any Viking’s skill player right now. They are going to be starting a rookie QB, their foundation back is suspended indefinitely, they lost their passing safety blanket in Kyle Rudolph and left tackle, Matt Kalil, is rated as the worst tackle so far this season by PFF. You have to keep rolling out Cordarrelle Patterson, but keep expectations in check.
Terrance Williams (WR, Dal) and DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Hou) – Both guys have been coming through for their teams, but if I own these guys, I would be trying to trade them for an upgrade. I have a bit more faith in Hopkins who had 6 catches for 116 yards in Week 3, but prior to that, he had 4 and 3 catches in Week 1 and Week 2 respectively. It’s also pretty tough to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick to come through every week. Williams on the other hand has 8 catches all season. Touchdowns are fluky in the NFL, so while he has been okay for Fantasy so far, his level of production is not great.
Demaryius Thomas (WR, Den) and Keenan Allen (WR, SD) – Unlike the two guys mentioned above, Thomas and Allen have been killing teams, especially considering where you most likely drafted them. Both guys are far too talented to be kept down for long, so you have to just keep trotting them out unless you are really loaded at the position. I would be okay with starting a guy like Steve Smith over Allen for the moment, but Thomas is a must start every week.
Donte Moncrief (WR, IND) – Moncrief is 6’2”, 221 pounds, ran a 4.4 forty, has a 39.5” vertical and 132 broad jump. This pre-season, Greg Cosell compared him to Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas, albeit a poor mans version until he cleans up some technical flaws such as body catching the ball too much. This past week he had 5 targets and 4 receptions for 55 yards. He also had 2 deep balls. While path to full week-to-week relevance will take a few injuries ahead of him, he is a must own in dynasty as Hakeem Nicks will most likely be gone in 2015 and Reggie Wayne will be 36.
Odell Beckham Jr(WR, NYG) – He’s another guy to watch and it looks like his hammy is finally getting better. Beckham is a perfect fir for the offense that often features three wide. Eli Manning is also starting to get more comfortable in the offense, so Beckham could be a guy that takes off the second half of the season and unlike Moncrief, he has a direct path to relevance this year.
Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter (WR, Tenn) – Both guys have a ton of talent, but Jake Locker just isn’t a very good passer. While I wouldn’t drop either player just yet, it is tough to start them unless you really need them. Hopefully Locker starts to turn it around or they pass the torch to Zach Mettenberger, Charlie Whitehurst is no upgrade.
CASE DISMISSED
This is where we highlight players that are looking particularly good.
Just to highlight a few guys we have mentioned here already, these are guys, beyond the obvious, that you should be starting with confidence until proven otherwise:
- Steve Smith
- Lamar Miller
- Emmanuel Sanders
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Michael Floyd
- Terrance West (until Tate comes back)
- Donald Brown
- Jeremy Hill
- Brandin Cooks
- Martellus Bennett
THOUGHTS FROM THE BENCH
Here is where we highlight situations or strategies that are worth monitoring.
Kickers and Defenses – With the chaos that has gone on this season between injuries, suspensions and tough matchups, Kickers and Defenses are helping teams win more weeks than ever. Make sure to work the waiver wire to get a kicker that is actually producing on a weekly basis. Sometimes even looking at the Las Vegas over/under betting lines can be a good prediction of kicker viability. The odds makers in Las Vegas are pretty darn good, so if they predict a high scoring affair, you know there will be some field goals. As for defenses, except for Cincinnati and Seattle, I would not be tied to any single defense.