The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 20

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome to this column's swan song for the 2015 season. Hope you've enjoyed it; any and all feedback is welcome.

Now, with pleasantries out of the way, let's get to the Conference Championship round value probabilities!

quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

As indicated by the fact that no quarterback even has a 50/50 chance in cash games, finding value this week -- as was the case last week -- is especially difficult. Cam Newton is the clear play in cash games, but it's more of a toss-up in tournaments. That's not just because his lead shrinks considerably on the right side of the table. Rather, it's also because he's currently rostered in about one out of every three lineups according to FantasyScore. Of course, Brady's ownership rate is over 40 percent, so he's not a great option if you're looking for value and uniqueness (while also avoiding the decaying corpse of Peyton Manning's throwing ability). Nope, if that's your goal, then Palmer's the tournament play, as he's only in about 20 percent of lineups. (Not to mention that Larry Fitzgerald will be getting covered by recently un-retired Cortland Finnegan).

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Like last week, Johnson is the clear value choice in cash games. Unlike last week, he's also the choice in tournaments. That said, at 47.7%, he's the highest-owned running back, which means rostering him in a GPP requires going for even more value at the RB2 slot. (Most weeks, Johnson's ownership percentage would mean not rostering him at all, but that's an almost impossible constraint given the two-game slate.) Taking ownership percentages for other running backs into account, the best tournament value is either Jackson or White, depending on how one envisions New England's game script. You'll notice I didn't include Bolden there even though he's the highest of the three in the table and a member of the same backfield. That's because he's neither the Patroits' primary pass catcher nor their primary short-yardage runner. In other words, he may achieve value, but how does he achieve tournament-worthy upside?

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Funchess may have the highest likelihood of achieving value, but he's a non-starter, both literally and figuratively: When Carolina's top three wideouts are active, he barely sees the field, which thereby makes him unusable in DFS regardless of his projected value. Cotchery, on the other hand, is one of the top three and Pro Football Focus predicts that he will spend most of the game being covered by underwhelming slot cornerback Jerraud Powers. Based on that logic, one would think that Cotchery's probably your best bet as a cheap flex. Unfortunately, however, his ownership rate is a (somewhat mind-boggling) 37.2%, which means that a significant portion of FantasyScore tournament players have already identified the market inefficiency that is(/was) Jerricho Cotchery.

Wideouts in Arizona and Denver reside just below Cotchery in the table, and therefore represent the next value tier this week. For Thomas and Sanders, it's worth pointing out that New England has the least efficient pass defense among remaining teams (per DVOA). It's also worth pointing out, however, that the Patriots ranking is 13th, i.e., nothing to scoff at. Once again returning to ownership rates, Thomas' is half of Sanders', so the former is probably the better tournament play.

A similar divergence exists with respect to Floyd and Brown, with the latter having an ownership rate that's twice as high as the former. That said, there will be an elephant in Bank of America Stadium that won't be in Sports Authority Stadium at Mile High: namely, Josh Norman. The bottom line for Floyd's and Brown's value prospects is that the one who runs more routes against Norman is highly likely to fail achieving it, and vice versa. Even Pro Football Focus isn't sure which way this is going to play out: Their stats say Norman covers Brown more often than not; their common sense says Norman shadows Floyd all game. For my money, I lean heavily towards Norman-on-Floyd being a reality, so Floyd's out of the conversation in all formats. And as for Brown, despite my Norman-on-Floyd leaning, his aforementioned ownership rate makes me weary to use him in tournaments, while the uncertainty of the situation makes me weary to use him in cash games. Therefore, as has been the case in non-DFS fantasy football for the past decade, when in doubt, just go with Larry Fitzgerald. (His ownership rate is over 40 percent, though, so just go with him in cash games.) 

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Given Arizona's and Denver's low tight-end usage in the passing game, there are really only two viable options at the position this week. What's interesting is that, although Olsen isn't all that worse of a tournament value than Gronkowski, he's in fewer than half as many lineups (20.7% vs. 48.4%). Therefore, I'd go with Olsen.

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

The situation at defense mimics the one at tight end. New England's got a higher value probability than Carolina, but the Panthers are currently in around half as many lineups as the Patriots (26.1% to 51.4%). Of course, the other home team with a great defense on Sunday sits at only 10.8% owned, so the Broncos are also a viable tournament alternative to New England.

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