You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
Packers-Eagles Cornucopia
Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins, and Desean Jackson highlighted a productive fantasy slate of Thanksgiving games, but there's more in store this weekend. One of the most promising is the Green Bay-Philadelphia match up. David Dodd's Game Predictor is a good starting point.
| Teams | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Pass Int | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Score |
|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 25 | 41 | 282 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 23 | 100 | 0.4 | 22.0 |
| at Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 36 | 269 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 30 | 110 | 0.9 | 25.0 |
One of the most compelling things about Game Predictor is its cumulative value as the season progresses. It did a fine job this week of predicting a strong Thanksgiving outings for the passing games of Washington and Pittsburgh and the rushing outputs of the Steelers and Cowboys.
The Packers-Eagles offers one of the most balanced match ups of a run-pass promise of this weekend's games. Digging deeper, our staff highlights several offerings from this game.
Leading off is Jeff Tefertiller's touting of Jordy Nelson and Jordan Matthews in this week's Value Plays:
- Top 200 ranking: 14
- Weekly ranking: 5
- Difference: +9
Nelson looks to be finally back to his play-making self. He gets a lacking Eagles secondary this week. Philadelphia has suffered injuries to the secondary. In a game that should be high scoring, we like most of the Packers pass catchers. The lack of a Green Bay running game should translate into even more attempted passes for Rodgers and targets for Nelson
- Top 200 ranking: 21
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: +11
Matthews has been the leading receiver on a bad Eagles receiving corps. In a game against Green Bay that looks to be high scoring, Matthews could have a monster game (at least by Matthews’ standards). The Packers have an injury-riddled secondary which will give up big plays. Green Bay yields the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receiving corps. The Packers give up an average of 40.33 PPR fantasy points per game. We like Matthews’ chances of topping 100 receiving yards and finding the end zone in the contest.
Sigmund Bloom's Sleepers also has a trio of players from this game that differ from Tefertiller's:
Wendell Smallwood (vs GB) - Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles haven’t practiced yet this week, and even if they do, Smallwood should be in line for a large workload. He has at least seventy total yards every time he has touched the ball at least 13 times, and we just saw the Packers run defense turn to dust at the end of the Week 11 loss to Washington. They lost yet another inside linebacker, Blake Martinez. Green Bay isn’t going to put up much resistance to the Eagles under the Monday Night lights, which puts Smallwood on target for a great opportunity as the possible lead back.
Dorial Green-Beckham (vs GB) - Six different wide receivers have scored against the Packers in the last two weeks. Eight wide receivers have at least 50 yards and a score over the last four games against Green Bay. The secondary is in shambles, so any viable receiver against them has to be considered. With Nelson Agholor needing to take a step back and Green-Beckham coming off of his best fantasy performance of the year, he is a good GPP DFS play and waiver wire pickup in deep leagues to see if he can build momentum in December.
Carson Wentz (vs GB) - This one isn’t complicated. The Packers pass defense has vanished into thin air, allowing at least 288 passing yards and three scores in three of the last four games. They’ve given up three or more passing scores in half of their ten games, and the Packers are in the bottom ten in passing yards allowed per game and bottom five in passing touchdowns. This while facing the second fewest pass attempts in the league. Wentz was a game competitor against Seattle last week on the road, this week he returns home, where all of his best games have come, and he’s facing a defense on the opposite end of the spectrum from Seattle.
As you can see, four of the five value plays mentioned from this game are Eagles. Looking even deeper, Matt Bitonti's Offensive Line Rankings also reveals the idea that a loss might actually prove to be a net gain:
PHILADELPHIA PLUS 5
Rookie right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai left last week's contest with a knee injury. After the game, it was announced that Vaitai has a grade-two MCL sprain and he will likely miss several weeks. The resulting shift moved left guard Allen Barbre to right tackle and Stefen Wisniewski to left guard. Why does this injury boost the rankings? Simply put, while others might have his grade higher, in our model Vaitai has performed below replacement level. Even though the lack of cohesion of moving Barbre around hurts, having two veteran starters boosts the grade overall. With the upgrade, the Philadelphia line grades out above average and sits at 14th overall.
My Advice: Jordy Nelson is clearly back as a WR1. Depending on your perspective, I'm either four weeks late on this statement or, based on the data, right on time. While Nelson scored five touchdowns during his first four weeks, his yardage output was too inconsistent to earn WR1 consideration. Before his 3-28-1 performance against Washington in Week 11, Nelson had three consecutive games with at least 94 yards and a touchdown.
I'm definitely rolling with Nelson and, although not mentioned above, Davante Adams this weekend as receivers likely to rebound from a sub-par Week 11. Adams and Matthews are also listed in Ryan Hester's Trendspotting as regression candidates for touchdowns. I'm not as optimistic about Cobb. The Eagles don't give up a lot of yardage to slot receivers this year and the addition of Jared Cook to the Packers' rotation clouds the picture.
I'm with Bloom and Tefertiller on Matthews, Green-Beckham, and Wentz. I'm not as optimistic about Wendell Smallwood. Rob Kelley is a fine cutback runner with a rugged skill set between the tackles. Smallwood has skills in space, but I haven't seen a consistent display between the tackles. I am not convinced that he can deliver when called upon in any situation.
The latest news on Darren Sproles is that he'll play because the rib injury is "in a safe area," according to Philadelphia Inquirer writer Zac Berman. It's enough that I'm not taking my chances on Smallwood in a game where both offenses should combine for 40-50 points and the Packers take the early lead in the game script.
tasty Leftovers: Cardinals-Falcons
Let's return to Dodd's Game Predictor for another strong fantasy match-up in Atlanta. Both the rushing and passing production look strong.
| Teams | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Pass Int | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Score |
|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 26 | 40 | 287 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 24 | 108 | 0.8 | 23.1 |
| at Atlanta Falcons | 24 | 36 | 272 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 23 | 98 | 1.0 | 27.3 |
What might be a surprise to some of you is an endorsement of Carson Palmer. Ryan Hester offers one in this week's Trendspotting.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Commentary
Play David Johnson. Oh, you need more advice? This one might surprise you, but play Carson Palmer. He's been terrible, but his price has come down so much that he's more than stomachable (I'm almost certain that's not really a word). Atlanta can't help but to get in shootouts, and Arizona is capable of obliging.
Hester's bullish outlook on Palmer is based on the value of price in DFS games, but there's more to explore here for re-draft owners. Hester likes Larry Fitzgerald as a TD regression candidate and Scott Bischoff sees the Palmer-Fitzgerald combo as one of the safest of the weekend:
The Cardinals travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in an NFC clash in Week 12. Vegas has this game pegged as one of the highest scoring games of the week with a total of 51 points. The Falcons have an implied total of 27.5 points and the Cardinals have an implied number of 23 points.
Both teams have potent offenses and can put up points in hurry in either the running or passing game. While the Cardinals pass defense is one of the better units in the game, the Falcons are extremely susceptible to the pass as they are ranked No. 31 in the NFL.
The Falcons pass defense is surrendering a league-high 285 completions through 10 games which is the highest number of completions allowed in the NFL. They have also yielded a passer rating of 100.9 to opposing quarterbacks which is fifth-worst in the league.
The Falcons have a very good cornerback in Desmond Trufant but he plays outside and Fitzgerald takes most of his snaps out of the slot, and that’s where the Falcons are extremely susceptible. The numbers all point to a high floor with a giant ceiling for Palmer and Fitzgerald in this game.
Fitzgerald has been consistently been the most targeted receiving option in the Cardinals passing attack. He’s been targeted 106 times in 10 games to date, but he’s seen an uptick over the past four games as he’s seen 50 targets over the past four games. He’s converted 37 of those 50 targets into catches for 339 yards, but he hasn’t scored.
Looking at the likeliest game script, it is easy to see points getting scored on both sides in this game and the Cardinals will definitely have to move the ball, and it is easy to see a path for Palmer and Fitzgerald to have success this week.
The combination of Palmer and Fitzgerald is as safe play as it offers a nice floor and a high ceiling which makes it an excellent GPP play in Week 12. Chris Feery agrees, labeling the Cardinals-Falcons tilt as one of his Chalk Games of The Week:
When we have the highest projected scoring game of the Sunday slate, plus two offenses that can go off in a heartbeat, we have ourselves the chalk game of the week. To make this one even more appealing, there’s no clear defensive red flags to keep in mind with the exception of the fact that the Cardinals have been a little stingy against opposing running backs in 2016. However, even that comes with a caveat as solid backs can carve out some points. Devonta Freeman falls in that category, and we can consider him a solid option for Week 12 - along with plenty of other skill position players from this tilt.
Both signal callers offer up appeal, ands we can consider a high-priced stack with Matt Ryan at the helm, or a more affordable one with Carson Palmer leading the way. We’ll assume Palmer will be owned at a higher clip due to his discounted price, but both will see plenty of interest this week. There’s no reason to shy away from either player, but there’s also plenty of other viable plays at quarterback. In short, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger, but neither player is in the must play conversation.
Pass catchers are a different story, as Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald look like two of the top plays at wide receiver for Week 12. Both will be heavily owned, but we’re not going to shy away just for the sake of being different. Other options include Michael Floyd, JJ Nelson, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper. We shouldn’t have to worry about ownership percentage for any of them, and we’ll only consider them as boom-bust options for GPP play. Finally, David Johnson is one of the top plays on the board most weeks, and this week is no different. He’s going to cost you, but the upside is huge in a potential shootout.
My Advice: When writers say a player has been bad, they're often talking about the aesthetics of his game, not the production. Palmer's 198-yard, 2-touchdown, and 2-interception day against the Vikings was bad in fantasy and reality, but the Vikings are a good defense and Palmer's two weeks prior offered a combined box score of 65-of-95 for 739 yards, 4 scores, and 3 interceptions.
Not bad. In fact, pretty good.
I'm bullish on Palmer, Fitzgerald, and David Johnson this week. Floyd is a good boom-bust option. Ryan, Jones, and Freeman are strong plays. But before I'd consider Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper, J.J. Nelson or any other Cardinal, I'd give a strong look at Taylor Gabriel who has thrived for the past few weeks as a perimeter threat with big-play ability. After that, consider Jermaine Gresham, because Palmer has a longstanding history with the tight end stretching back to their days in Cincinnati and the Falcons linebackers remain one of my top Fresh Fish candidates every week.
believe in Jonathan Stewart
In his Beyond the Stats feature, Jeff Haseley listed Carolina as a team that's looking good this weekend thanks to Oakland allowing 6.2 yards per play (highest in the league).
Maurile Tremblay saw this game on the slate and projected Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart as his No.11 RB of the weekend despite the fact that Matt Bitonti sees a drop-off in production from the offensive line due to injuries:
CAROLINA MINUS 16
Center Ryan Kalil started the last game after missing the two previous games with a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, Kalil suffered a set back to the same shoulder and couldn't finish the game. Chris Scott replaced Kalil in the second half. The usual backup center, Gino Gradkowski, was inactive with a knee injury. Gradkowski has been practicing this week and appears to be on track to start over Kalil. The team is embarking on a ten day road trip to the West Coast and there's a decent chance Kalil will be left behind, along with Michael Oher, who is still suffering issues with his concussion recovery. Without their best lineman, the Panthers' line falls sixteen spots to the low-tier.
That said, Bitonti has the Raiders defensive front as 25th in the league and replacement linemen are generally not starters due to their level of skill as pass protectors, not run blockers.
Dodd's Game Predictor validates the idea of a strong ground game this weekend:
| Teams | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Pass Int | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Score |
|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 21 | 36 | 263 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 29 | 123 | 0.8 | 22.5 |
| at Oakland Raiders | 25 | 38 | 274 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 25 | 100 | 1.0 | 26.2 |
Only the Dolphins, Saints, 49ers, Cowboys, and Titans have better rush numbers this weekend.
My Advice: I agree with Maurile. When I examined the Raiders' defensive game logs versus running backs I saw a common thread that points to Stewart having a strong weekend.
Take a look and see if you can guess it:
| NAME | WK | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 12 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| John Kuhn | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 17 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 12 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 16 | 114 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 4 | 21 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Derek Watt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 6 | 24 | 131 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 6 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 19 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 8 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 9 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 69 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 9 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 11 | 24 | 104 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jay Prosch | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 11 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The two factors I see are the size/style of the back and the team's level of commitment to the ground game. Murray, Ware, Miller, Freeman, and West are on teams that committed to the ground game. Three of those five are true-blue power runners.
What's also notable is West's production, because the Ravens line was struggling when it played the Raiders and it still thrived. Stewart hasn't had a big day in weeks and one of the points I read this week was how he didn't look strong against the Saints.
If you look at the Saints defensive game logs, the unit hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 8 weeks—Devonta Freeman's 152-yards. Stewart struggled in the rematch, but during that same stretch, he posted 19-85-2 on the Saints.
It's a riskier move to elevate Stewart to RB2 status, but based on the matchups, I'd consider him above a Saints, Bears, Ravens, or Patriots back.
...including Jeremy hill
Tefertiller lists the Bengals' starter as one of his overvalued options this week.
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 28
- Difference: -15
With Giovani Bernard gone for the season, fantasy owners are hopeful that Hill can finally get back on track. The game this week may not be the week with the banged-up Bengals traveling to Baltimore to face the Ravens. Baltimore is a very good run defense, holding opposing running games to 18.87 PPR fantasy points. This is good for the third-best in the NFL. A.J. Green is out of the game, too, so the Ravens will be able to focus on slowing down the Cincinnati running game.
Bitonti has the Ravens' front as No.13 overall, which supports Tefertiller's assessment of the Bengals facing a good unit and without a stud field-stretcher to keep Baltimore's defense off balance.
Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant list the Ravens as a tough matchup for the Bengals ground game:
The Ravens' rush defense is first in the NFL through 11 weeks, averaging 76 yards allowed per game, and they are tied for most frugal with rushing TDs so far, with just four surrendered. Dallas managed 30/118/0 rushing last week, but two weeks ago the Cleveland stable of runners had just 13/33/0 rushing. From Week Eight to Week 11 of regular season (the last four weeks, but includes 20 teams on byes during that time span—each team has at least three games played in the last four weeks), Baltimore averages 11.5 fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs per game (third-least in the NFL).
My Advice: Hill is a talented player, but not a consistent one. The Ravens are finding its stride as a team and I think it's possible that the offense could build a big enough lead that the game script excludes Hill during the final 2.5 quarters of this contest.
Before that happens, the Ravens will need the Bengals to prove it can stretch the field on them without Green. I doubt Cincinnati will provide sufficient evidence.
If available, rent Buffalo's defense
Sigmund Bloom, our local rent-a-center proprietor, recommends the Bills as a hot product for Week 12.
Buffalo (vs Jacksonville)
Blake Bortles is money for opposing D/ST’s lately and Buffalo has been a solid to great D/ST play in every home game this year. The Bills still have playoffs on their mind and the Jaguars are playing for a dead man walking at head coach.
A Look Ahead: @OAK PIT CLE - We’ll come back to the Bills in Week 15.
Jeff Hasley's Beyond the Stats also bodes well for the Bills.
Buffalo - Opponents average drive start against the Jaguars is their own 31.7 yard line. Jaguars also have allowed the most FGs against - 26. Blake Bortles has also been sacked 51 times and the Bills lead the league with 31 sacks.
Plus, I'm afraid that Bortles' garbage-time days may be in jeopardy due to a banged-up shoulder. He's expected to play after practicing fully Wednesday and Thursday, but if he's toughing it out you might want to look at what I provided in this week's Top 10 before rolling with him.
6. could bortles' dinged shoulder lead to a fantasy garbage strike?
Some people are particular about their garbage service. Me? I just want to make sure that the guy arrives on the scheduled day and gets the job done when he shows up.
In this sense, Blake Bortles has been a fine fantasy garbage man this year—at least until this weekend. The Lions defense was an easy job: no heavy lifting; no oversized items; no sharp objects protruding from the bags; nothing messy, and nothing toxic.
But while goofing around with his pals and making exaggerated tosses of debris into the truck, Bortles tripped over the curb, landed on his throwing shoulder, and he lost whatever accuracy he had left.
These were three consecutive plays for Bortles. First, he coudn't hit the seam against Cover 2.
He put the ball behind his receiver, resulting in his 10th pick-six of his career and second in as many games.
And if not for an odd defensive pass interference call, Bortles was inches away from his second interception in as many passes.
Although Bortles finished the game and even delivered some decent enough passes to make the game close, it was clear that more was off with his play than his usual troubles with the conceptual side of quarterbacking. If you're a Marqise Lee fantasy owner, monitor Bortles' status this week because the connection between these two is growing.
My Advice: The Bills defense is still susceptible to deep plays because of its aggressive nature so I could see one of Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, or Marqise Lee busting loose for a long play—Robinson or Lee most likely in that order. But I don't see Blake Bortles having a statistically strong game. I think the Bills defense as a good shot of outscoring Bortles in fantasy leagues this weekend.