The 2014 class of rookie quarterbacks is going to go down as a memorable one.
It may not be the most or least impressive on the field, but the narratives that will inevitably engulf Johnny Manziel, and to a lesser extent Teddy Bridgewater, will give this group of players staying power in terms of media coverage at the very least. Outside of Manziel and Bridgewater, the first quarterback off the board in the draft was Blake Bortles, while Derek Carr is the only other prolonged starter.
Blake Bortles
Little has been predictable about Blake Bortles' career with the Jaguars to this point. Before Bortles was selected by the Jaguars in the top five of the 2014 draft, nobody of note had suggested that he would be their selection. The Jaguars front office and coaching staff did an excellent job of masking their intentions, with many believeing that wide receiver Sammy Watkins or defensive end Khalil Mack would be the preffered option, with a quarterback coming at a later point of the draft.
Even those who thought the Jaguars should take a quarterback mostly talked about Bridgewater or Manziel as options over Bortles.
When the Jaguars eventually let the world know that Bortles was their quarterback of the future, it came with a caveat. General Manager Dave Caldwell immediately said that Bortles would stay on the sideline for the whole of his rookie season. Bortles was viewed as a quarterback who needed to work on his mechanics throwing the ball from the pocket. With the Jaguars lacking a stable offensive line, there was a legitimate concern that Bortles would regress if he was forced onto the field too early in his career.
Although the Jaguars talked a big game before the season began, they ultimately caved quicker than a college player who can't make up his mind about declaring for the draft or not.
Bortles saw the field for the first time in Week 3 and was the full-time starter by Week 4. In replacing Chad Henne, he had no real standards to overcome. Henne had limited the Jaguars offense to the point that it was almost completely blunted. When Bortles came in, he added a new dimension with his athleticism, but brought many more problems to the field also. Since coming in, Bortles has been a turnover machine because of his porous ball placement and inability to read NFL level coverages. Despite having a relatively impressive group of wide recievers to throw the ball to, Bortles continually forced them to make unecessary adjustments on the football.
This lack of accuracy can be traced back to his poor mechanics, but the footwork problems that were advertised before he was drafted were now joined by an elongated motion that could propel a cruise liner.
It would be natural to forgive Bortles of his flaws at this stage of his career because he is in a rookie in a less-than-ideal situation, but it also wouldn't be smart to buy into his long term future based solely on where he was taken in the draft and what he has shown on the field since then. Accuracy is typically something that doesn't get significantly better for quarterbacks in the NFL. It's something that is repeatedly worked on and discussed all the time, but it is largely an exercise in theory rather than in practice. Bortles' accuracy is going to limit his ceiling moving forward.
Bortles can adjust his mechanics, but he will need to make radical improvements to get his accuracy to a point where it is worthy of an NFL-level passer. The biggest issue for the young quarterback at this stage is that he doesn't throw well to any specific areas of the field to build an offense around. If he was a good short, intermediate or deep passer, he would allow the Jaguars to focus on those areas on the field while concentrating on his minor flaws during the off-season/in practice sessions.
With Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns as young receivers to grow with him on a team that should need to score a lot of points to be competitive, Bortles' should have fantasy value in a league that doesn't punish turnovers. However, that value may be limited and shortened unless he improves significantly over the next two seasons.
Johnny Manziel
The highly anticipated debut of Johnny Manziel last weekend proved to be a non-runner. Manziel and his offense scored zero points during the rookie quarterback's debut and he played a huge role in that futility. Manziel is a flawed quarterback who has significant problems that need to be addressed before he can be considered a viable starting quarterback in the NFL. Kyle Shanahan's offense makes it easier for quarterbacks to be productive than most and the Browns supporting cast around Manziel should continue to improve as they add draft picks and free agents at wide receiver in particular.
With Manziel's rushing ability, everything is set up for him to be a very valuable fantasy option moving forward.
However, to be a good fantasy quarterback you also need to be a good real life quarterback. Manziel should be assured of his starting role during his second season, because Brian Hoyer proved to be an incapable starter over the course of this season. However, surpassed next season when he will be given leeway to develop and grow through his mistakes, it's tough to buy into Manziel. He has physical talent, but he is a complete work-in-progress as a quarterback in every other area.
Manziel needs to learn how to be a dropback passer to effectively run Shanahan's offense. He also needs to learn how to read NFL defenses while managing a collapsing pocket without losing his discipline. As much as Manziel offers potential big plays, he isn't a special athlete so if he can't function within the design of his coordinator's plays, then he won't be able to be an effective NFL quarterback. One start is too few to make a determination on Manziel moving forward, but the traits he showed off in college should continue to give pause to any fantasy owners until he erases them with his on-field play.
Teddy Bridgewater
Falling in the draft was supposed to be a blessing in disguise for Teddy Bridgewater.
He was drafted by a team who had the most talented running back in the NFL and high draft picks at key positions such as left tackle, tight end and wide receiver. Bridgewater was also going to a team that had a veteran quarterback to rely on so they didn't need to rush him onto the field. Unfortunatley for the former Louisville player, what appeared impressive on paper proved to be ineffective on the field. Left tackle Matt Kalil turned into the worst left tackle in the NFL. Wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson was benched because of his inability to run routes down the field. Tight end Kyle Rudolph spent most of the season on the sideline.
Then, of course, Adrian Peterson was sidelined for the year because of a suspension and Greg Jennings struggled to find his form. Through in a bunch of issues on the offensive line surrounding Kalil and Bridgewater was dropped into one of the worst situations imaginable for a rookie quarterback.
Despite the crumbling foundation around him, Bridgewater did his best to hold the offense afloat this season. He used his exceptional pocket presence to mask the deficiencies of the offensive line around him, while his intelligence reading the defense allowed him to be an effective passer after struggling to initially adapt early in the season. Bridgewater may never be a top fantasy option, but he's the most likely player from this class to be a long-term starter. His productivity should grow as his comfort level does. It was understandable that he was cautious during his rookie season because of his situation and his inexperience.
With Bridgewater moving forward, you should have two main concerns. The first is how cautious he was on the field. Maybe this was the smarter option to take as a rookie, and if it was simply a decision that Bridgewater is aware of rather than a fear of making mistakes it shouldn't be any real concern over the long term. It's something that needs to be monitored during his second and third seasons in the league. From a physical perspective, Bridgewater's deep ball was a major problem during his rookie season. At the very least, he has shown some promise with it in recent weeks. Changing out Patterson for Charles Johnson has had an effect, but mostly Bridgewater has just shown more accuracy on deeper passes.
Deep accuracy for Bridgewater is always going to be a complementary part of his skill set. To build an effective career, the young quarterback will mostly rely on his intelligence and intermediate accuracy. On this play, the Lions don't blitz Bridgewater but they do disguise their pass rush to try and bait him into throwing them the football. He responds by instantly diagnosing the play at the snap to locate the soft spot of the coverage. Bridgewater has shown phenomenal intelligence and composure at times during his rookie season. He will need to develop his consistency in this area over the coming seasons, but consistency is typically something that comes with more experience.
If any quarterback from the 2014 class is worth investing in over the long term, it has to be Bridgewater.
Derek Carr
Of the top four quarterbacks from the 2014 class, nobody's stock has grown more than Derek Carr's since they were selected.
Carr is largely benefiting from the perception of his situation. Because he plays for the Raiders, the presumption is that his supporting cast is awful. This is true about his running game and his receivers could be better, but on the whole, his supporting cast and role within the team isn't exceptionally stressful. Carr has one of the better pass protecting offensive lines in the NFL and his receivers would benefit a lot more from his presence if he threw with anticipation and showed more poise against pressure on a regular basis.
It's going to be tough to judge Carr until next season because the Raiders have done as much as they possibly could to play to his strengths. Their exceptionally limited offense has severely hindered his statistical output to this point, but it's unclear if that output will get better in a more expansive situation.
The Raiders have a lot of rebuilding to do. Carr should be sure of his starting spot for next season and probably the season after that, but his long term outlook in fantasy should be limited.
Other Quarterbacks
After Carr, Jimmy Garopppolo was the only player selected in the top three rounds of the draft. Garoppolo is in a great situation in New England, but Tom Brady will likely play on for next year and probably the year after. So long as Brady is in New England, Garoppolo won't carry any value in fantasy. Once Brady leaves though, Garoppolo will likely be inheritiing the best coach in the NFL and an offense that has consistently put Brady in position to be a productive passer.
There's no guarantee that Belichick hangs around after Brady, but if he was so focused on solely winning with Brady he would never have drafted Garoppolo as high as he did.
Of the remaining quarterbacks who were selected in the fourth round or later, Logan Thomas and Zach Mettenberger appear to be the most viable fantasy options as later round picks/deep roster stashes. Thomas will be working with Bruce Arians, a noted quarterback coach, in a situation that is built to help him be productive over the coming years. Carson Palmer was signed to a long term deal, but his torn ACL pushes some clouds over his status moving forward.
Mettenberger is more likely to start next season, but it's no guarantee. He will inherit a good supporting cast and play for a head coach who actively wants to pass the football a lot. Mettenberger may only hold onto the job for half a season or one full season, but he should be productive even if he's turnover prone.