While draft position will dictate what early-round rookie a dynasty owner ends up with in rookie drafts, the late rounds allow for owners to consistently get their target players in nearly every draft. These final roster spots are the ‘personality’ of a dynasty team. Is the owner a fan of optimistic depth charts? What about athletic projects? Maybe overt size is the name of the game? Over the first few years of a dynasty owner’s history, a theme develops for these late-round rookies and final roster spots.
2015 Favorites
Quarterbacks
All three are regularly available outside the top-40 of start-1QB formats in rookie drafts. Stashing quarterbacks are a low-upside game in general, unless rosters span north of 30 offensive roster spots. Long-term opportunity can be a year or two away and the prospect being a legitimate fantasy starter with the addition of depressed market value, tempers their stash appeal.
Bryce Petty: Opportunity is on Petty’s side with stopgap Ryan Fitzpatrick and running-out-of-time Geno Smith on the depth chart. The Jets have passing game weapons to boost a quarterback’s upside and Petty has athleticism to boot.
Sean Mannion: Like Petty, Mannion has an unsettled depth chart ahead of him in St.Louis. Nick Foles is not locked in as a long-term starter and Austin Davis turned back into a pumpkin after a promising start to seeing significant time under center in 2014.
Brett Hundley: Green Bay has groomed some decent backup quarterbacks over the years and Hundley fell significantly in the NFL Draft. Thought to be a Day 2 selection, Hundley plummeted to 147 overall. Hundley, outside of a Rodgers injury is a long-term hold, however, the athletic upside in the Colin Kaepernick mold is appealing.
Running Backs
Cameron Artis-Payne: While the mid-third round of rookie drafts is the sweet spot for Artis-Payne (CAP for those saving space on twitter or chat), the 174 overall pick slips outside the top-30 a fair amount. CAP is a talented runner (we will see about the passing game), but gets some skepticism due to his community college background prior to his singular season in the sun with Auburn in 2014. The Panthers were a great landing spot for an under-the-radar rookie back as Jonathan Stewart has missed 20 games over the past three seasons and his 28-year-old body is more like 38 – and held together with duct tape. Fozzy Whittaker, Jordan Todman, and Darrin Reaves – the veteran ‘competition’ for Artis-Payne behind Stewart – is a collection of middling journeymen. The likelihood of CAP seeing, a minimum, a few starts in 2015 is high and he has the talent to capitalize on the opportunity.
Zach Zenner: While Ameer Abdullah is soaking up all the positive news sunshine as Detroit’s new version of Reggie Bush, Zenner has plenty of similarities to the other Lions back – Joique Bell. Like Bell, Zenner is a rugged workhorse from the small school ranks for at least three seasons. While Zenner does not quite have Bell’s lateral agility, Zenner tested with more explosion and long speed in the pre-draft process. Like Bell early in his career, Zenner has an uphill climb to relevance (or even a secure roster spot). When targeting late-round or undrafted small school products, the combination of good enough athleticism to hang on the NFL level and top-shelf production has been a historically positive sign. When combining his rushing and receiving scores in the projection model, Zenner has a better production profile than all but two drafted running backs in the 2015 class – Todd Gurley and David Johnson.
Malcolm Brown: Once a top recruit from the high school ranks and logging an outstanding Age 18 season at Texas, Brown has been a shadow for three straight years. Brown rebounded with a solid athleticism score (+15% above baseline), including a weigh-adjusted three-cone time in the top-25% of all running back prospects since 1999. Backs with prototypical size, lateral agility, and early college production are ideal deep stashes in fantasy. Instead of investing in a marginal talent still with question marks at 22-23 years old if they can play, bet on fallen stars from years ago that have a natural talent level to emerge in the NFL. They may flame out like countless others, but the ability was there at one time.
Tyler Varga: Josh Robinson is getting all the attention as the Colts running back sleeper beyond Frank Gore. Varga is the clear-cut metric favorite of the two to emerge in the NFL. Robinson was a non-producer by the numbers in his college career, while Varga’s +76% rushing score for his Yale career is better than all but Todd Gurley and T.J. Yeldon of the drafted backs this year. Varga’s tape is equally impressive as a strong and smart interior runner that wins on contact and rarely leaves yards on the field. While Robinson is a trendy Round 3 rookie pick, Varga is available at least 10-15 picks later and has the stronger prospect profile.
Dreamius Smith: Landing in San Diego was not ideal for Smith out of the gate with Melvin Gordon, Danny Woodhead, and Branden Oliver clogging the depth chart. For those that like the prospect profile of Christine Michael and will roster him until he ultimately succeeds or fails in the NFL, Dreamius Smith is a discount version of the former second round NFL Draft pick. Smith had positive age-weighted seasons at 18 and 19 years old on the ground, plus has a strong combination of agility and straight-line speed within a 223-pound frame. Smith will rarely get drafted in even in the top-60 of rookie drafts, making him a watch list special in all but the deepest of leagues.
Michael Dyer: Like Malcolm Brown, Dyer was once a top recruit and early college standout. Dyer flashed with positive age-weighted rushing scores at 19 and 20 years old prior to falling off the map and entering the NFL at a historically old age. Landing in Oakland is one of the better spots for an undrafted running back long shot. Latavius Murray is the odds-on favorite to be the Week 1 starter, but hardly an established NFL entity. Trent Richardson is on his last NFL opportunity. Roy Helu is intriguing but closer to third-down option than three-down touch hog. Dyer’s talent plus situational opportunity to carve a roster spot gets him on the watch list and late-round rookie draft targets.