Jeremy Langford was supposed to be the Chicago Bears' feature back this season. For as little as Langford's talent was loved by outsiders, he was given a primary role by the coaching staff during the preseason and was being drafted on the basis that he would have enough quantity to overcome his lack of quality. He scored a touchdown in Week 1 and got 17 carries but saw that number drop to 11 in Week 2. Langford missed time with injury from Week 3 until this most recent week, returning just in time to see Jordan Howard emphatically lock up his starting spot.
Howard is a 21-year old rookie who has started all five games since Langford's injury. His production has been up and down so far.
Over his first four games, Howard averaged 12.75 carries per game for 74 yards but didn't score a touchdown. He did have runs of 36 and 57 yards while also catching a touchdown pass against the Indianapolis Colts.That four game stretch announced Howard as a contender for the starting spot in Chicago because when he was relied upon to carry the load he was productive. He had 100-yard rushing games against the Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts.
The problem with having 100-yard rushing games against the Lions and Colts is that those are two of the worst defenses in the league. Being productive against those teams isn't necessarily a mark of your quality but rather a mark against the quality of your opponent. Howard immediately fell back to earth, giving us legitimate reason to be skeptical about his potential production moving forward. He averaged 2.3 yards per carry on 15 attempts against the Jacksonville Jaguars and 3.1 yards per carry on seven attempts against the Green Bay Packers.
And that is how we arrived to Monday night. On Monday night, Howard not only took on the best defense in the league, he cut right through it for another 100-yard game.
Howard carried the ball 26 times for 153 yards and a touchdown. He also caught four passes for 49 yards. The Vikings couldn't contain him. His athleticism in space and decisiveness behind the line of scrimmage allowed him to repeatedly find space on the second level. On just his second carry, Howard broke off the biggest play of the game, a 69-yard run from his own 18-yard line. The blocking on this play is excellent and it is helped by the play-side defensive tackle losing his gap integrity by trying to cut underneath the blocker he is working against.
Still, Howard is made to work.
The play-side defensive tackle tries to undercut his blocker because he thinks he has a chance at catching the running back before he gets to the hole. That puts pressure on Howard to show off his acceleration and balance as he turns the corner. The above gif slows down as Howard accelerates to reach his spot before freezing to flip to a different angle. That different angle shows us safety Harrison Smith waiting in the hole to try and bring Howard down. Smith is one of the best safeties in the NFL and typically an assured tackler. Howard's ability to turn the corner so comfortably allows him to run right by the safety.
Andrew Sendejo, the VIkings regular starting safety opposite Smith, missed this game through injury. He was replaced by a rookie who took a terrible angle to the ball, he was subsequently benched. Even though the rookie's mistake made Howard's job easier, he still had to recognize where the space was and attack it. Xavier Rhodes chased him down before he could reach the endzone but that's no indictment of Howard considering Rhodes' speed and the amount of work Howard had done to get to that point in the play.
The Bears went straight back to Howard for two more carries, he gained five yards on the first but a miscommunication led to a -4 yard loss on the second.
Howard scored a two-yard touchdown midway through the second quarter. While he deserves credit for getting in the endzone it was one of the easiest touchdowns you'll ever see a back score. He was tossed the ball with a lead blocker working towards the pylon. The Vikings front seven defenders were blocked out of the play completely while cornerback Trae Waynes moved backwards, away from the running back for fear of being engaged by a pulling blocker. That meant that Howard walked in a touchdown that anyone could have scored.
In truth, it was a theme of the night. Howard's success was as much a reflection on the poor play of the Vikings defense as it was a reflection on his own performance. With that said, there were still many positive plays to feel optimistic about moving forward.
One of the main upgrades Howard offers over Langford is his physicality against contact. Howard is 6'0" and 222 lbs. He has a somehwat upright running style but he runs hard and drives his body through contact. In the above play he shows patience as he crosses the line of scrimmage before being initially contacted between two and three yards downfield. He escapes the first arm tackle and drives forward to extend the play into a seven-yard gain.
This play isn't as valuable as the two-yard touchdown, but it tells us more about his skill set and the sustainability of his production.
On the play that immediately followed the previous one, Howard ran through an attempted tackle from Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks. He was running with momentum and Kendricks had just disengaged from a block but Kendricks is one of the better linebackers in the league so it's an impressive play regardless.
The Bears run a lot of zone concepts with their offensive line. As a running back for this team, you have to be proficient at recognizing cutback lanes against understanding when to push outside to find the correct spot on the defense to attack. In the above play we can see Howard's ability to quickly transition from his initial direction to cutting back against the flow of his offensive line. He sees the aggressive action of the initial defender and uses it to his advantage with quick feet and decisiveness.
Making the read here is the most important element but Howard's acceleration and physicality were also on show as he skipped past the first linebacker before finishing hard against contact to keep moving forward.
This is a toss play rather than your traditional handoff in zone but conceptually it's the same situation for the running back. He has to react to the pressure that the defensive line creates with his penetration, deciding whether to plant his foot and accelerate upfield or follow the flow of the play outside. He makes the right decision to follow the flow of the play, drifting backwards a little bit to make sure he evades the penetrating Everson Griffen at the most critical point of the play.
He will need to prove his consistency over the course of the season but Howard isn't just a fast, powerful back. He has at least some understanding of how to adjust and react to what the defense is doing when given the ball.
There is a David Johnson quality to Howard's play. He's not as explosive or as diverse in the passing game, at least he hasn't shown to be so far, but he is big, decisive and physical with the speed to exploit space that he is given. Neither back has nuanced feet or much subtlety in general but both can make defenders miss with sharp cuts and power. Howard's receiving yards mostly came on two plays when he caught a well-executed screen and was left uncovered out of the backfield. He was natural catching the ball and ate up space in a hurry when it was presented in front of him. Two things that Johnson does consistently.
The Cardinals brought Johnson along slowly during his rookie year and benefited late in the year. They're benefiting so far this season too. The Bears situation isn't as positive for Howard's potential production as the Cardinals' situation is for Johnson, but as a cheaper option in weekly lineups and likely as a potential sleeper to target in dynasty leagues, he could similar upside over the long term.