Denver had an above-average defense in 2022. They went in the wrong direction in 2023. After finishing in the top half of the league in virtually all important statistical categories the previous year, the Broncos struggled last season. On the positive side, they forced the second most fumbles and recovered more than anyone else. After that, it’s all downhill.
This unit was dead last in yards per carry and 30th in rushing yards allowed. They did manage a mediocre ranking in the rushing touchdown column but that was only because they allowed so many scores through the air, where they finished 28th. Add in the 25th rank in yards per pass attempt, 24th in passing yards, and finishing in the bottom half in interceptions, and you get a squad that must improve if the team is going anywhere.
Not surprisingly, there will be new starters at every level in 2024. There were no top-shelf free-agent additions and the draft reinforcements were no more than an edge defender in round three and a corner in round five. The organization was thrifty in free agency though, adding some good, reasonably priced, veterans. Time will tell if it will be enough.
Defensive line
Denver’s pass rush tallied a respectable 42 sacks last year and they did it without any player landing more than eight and a half. There are no superstars along their defensive line this year either. What they do have is a solid and deep group of quality players who can all make contributions. They are relatively young across the front and there is even a little high upside potential.
The edge rotation should consist of Jonathan Cooper, Nik Bonitto, and Baron Browning, with some appearances by rookie Jonah Ellis. Between them, Cooper, Bonitto, and Browning accounted for 20 of the team’s sacks last season. Cooper led the way with eight and a half. He was also the leading tackler among Denver’s defensive linemen and led the team’s edge defenders in snaps by a wide margin.
On the field, Cooper is a good three-down edge who holds up pretty well versus the run and makes a lot of tackles. At 45-25-8.5 with 4 turnovers, 2 batted passes, and a score, Cooper quietly made his way into a lot of IDP lineups last year. The strong tackle totals helped him be rather consistent, posting at least nine points in twelve games while averaging almost twelve per. He was not very productive in his first two seasons so there is at least some concern that Cooper could be a one-year wonder. This one just doesn’t feel like that though. I like him as a dependable Edge2 or an excellent number three with upside. Cooper is not going to win a sack title but double-digits in that column would not be a surprise.
Baron Browning might have the highest ceiling of the group as a pass rusher. The problem is that he’s always banged up. Browning has missed 13 games over the last two seasons and played sparingly in several others due to nagging injuries. When healthy, he has shown signs of becoming an explosive pass rusher. The 2021 third-round pick started his career as an off-ball inside linebacker before shifting to the edge in his second season. He adapted quickly, recording nine sacks over the last two campaigns.
As an IDP prospect, Browning has good potential in terms of big play production but his value could be held in check by mediocre tackle totals. At 240 pounds, he is a flyweight in the run game and has trouble when opponents run right at him. Browning will hold the title of starter and if he can stay out of the trainer’s room, will consistently see around 70% of the snaps, so there is no lack of opportunity.
When Browning missed time last year, Nik Bonitto filled in admirably. So admirably in fact, that some might question his reduced role when Browning returned. Bonitto finished the season with eight sacks, just a half behind Cooper for the team lead. Considering he played over 300 fewer snaps, that’s an eyebrow-raiser.
Over a six-game stretch starting in week two, Bonitto started and saw roughly 65% of the action in each game. In those games, he totaled 20 combined stops with 5.5 sacks and a forced fumble. When everyone was available, his role was limited to between 35% and 45% of the action. In leagues with a lot of teams and/or big rosters, Bonitto might be worth a spot at the bottom. In most leagues, he is the guy to pick up if Browning misses time again.
There were a lot of factors contributing to the Broncos’ poor run defense. A pair of 240-pound edge defenders, mediocre linebacker play, and a less-than-stellar contribution from the front three were among them. It’s not that Denver's defensive tackles were bad, they just were not as good as they should have been.
In D.J. Jones the Broncos have a nose tackle who, at six foot and 305 pounds, is a bit undersized by today’s standards. Jones brings more quickness and athleticism to the party than the 320+ pound guys, but he gives up a little anchor strength in the trade-off. Jones rotates relatively evenly with Mike Purcell, who does not have an issue with being undersized at six three and 328 pounds. Both of these players are solid veteran contributors but they are not game changers. Jones might have a little value as depth in leagues starting two tackles but there is not much upside.
Denver’s outside tackle positions could give us a pair of IDP-relevant players. Zach Allen is a fairly safe call. He put up solid DT2 numbers in his last couple of seasons with the Cardinals and might have slipped into the top ten had he not missed four games in 2022. Allen followed defensive coordinator, Vance Joseph, over from Arizona last year and picked up right where he left off. At 60 combined tackles, 5 sacks, and a forced fumble, Allen put up the best numbers of his career and finished among the top 20. At 26 years old, his best football could be on the horizon. I see Allen as a priority DT2 with the potential to creep into the DT1 conversation.
The new kid in town is former Jets edge defender John Franklin-Myers. He is the proverbial tweener in a 4-3 scheme such as the Jets run but the definition of a 4-3 tweener, reads a lot like the description of what teams look for at the outside tackle positions in a 3-4. Thus, Franklin-Myers could be a great fit at tackle in Vance Joseph's scheme.
At 288 pounds, Franklin-Myers is on the large side for an edge guy. He lacks the twitchy burst of an explosive edge rusher but has a great motor and is tough against the run. His box score production was unimpressive with New York but that had a lot to do with how they run their rotation. Franklin-Myers saw a lot of early down action but barely more than half of the snaps overall. Allen played over 900 snaps for Denver last season so if Franklin-Myer lives up to expectations early, the Broncos will not hesitate to leave him on the field for 75% or more of the playing time.
Franklin-Myers has 19 career sacks with a personal best of 6 in 2021. His high mark in the tackle columns was 38 combined in 2022. There is a good chance he will set new career marks in both columns in 2024. Since no one is talking about him, I‘ve been able to pick him up cheaply as my third tackle in start two leagues.
Malcolm Roach is the other player that should figure into the equation. He likely picks up the leftovers at the outside tackle positions but Roach is a 3-4 tweener and could see action at all three spots. At six three and 290 pounds, he is small for the nose tackle position, on the other hand, Roach is a virtual no-show when it comes to rushing the passer, with one career sack over four seasons.
Edge Barron Browning – Big sack potential but lite in the tackle columns
Edge Jonathan Cooper – Dependable Edge2 or excellent number three
Edge Nik Bonito – Injury sleeper
Edge Jonah Ellis – Light duty expected unless there is an injury
DT Zach Allen – Priority DT2 with low DT1 potential
DT John Franklin-Myers – Potential late-round bargain
DT D.J. Jones – Marginal value
DT Matt Henningsen – No impact expected
DT Malcolm Roach – Injury sleeper with a low floor and marginal ceiling
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Linebackers
The Broncos had a good plan to improve their play at the linebacker position. Unfortunately, they are already on plan B. Denver drafted Drew Sanders in the third round last year and groomed him for the starting job. They let Josey Jewell walk in free agency and everything was going as planned. Then disaster struck when Sanders tore his Achilles in April. The organization is holding out hope for a mid-season return but in reality, there is a slim chance of that happening.
Fortunately, the team had already signed free agent Cody Barton to be their top backup. In many ways, Barton is simply a cheaper and slightly less talented version of Jewell. Barton is a borderline starting talent at the NFL level. He is a physical run defender who arrives at the ball with some pop and rarely misses tackles. He can be a liability in coverage though, and limits what the defensive coordinator can do without having him exposed.
From the IDP perspective, Barton is a tackling machine but falls short in the big play columns. He totaled 84 tackles and 52 assists as a starter for Seattle in 2022. Last year, he caught on with the commanders and went 67-54 despite missing five games. Over those 29 games, he accounted for 4 takeaways and 2 sacks. Barton’s average of almost 11.5 points per game, ranked 15th in 2022 and 19th last season.
There is one consistency that speaks volumes about Barton. Every time he starts for a team for a season, they don’t bring him back for the next. Temper your expectations for this year because he is unlikely to see much sub-package action, but he could still make a decent third starter for us on most weeks.
Alex Singleton joined the Eagles as an undrafted free agent in 2019. He made the roster on special teams. His first opportunity to play on defense came in 2020 when the team’s linebackers were a mess due to injuries. All Singleton did with that opportunity was rack up 121 combined stops, with three turnovers, a pair of sacks, and a score on just 748 snaps over in 15 games.
In 2021, the organization did everything possible to get him off the field but destiny forced their hand. Singleton logged 785 of a possible 1180 or so snaps yet still averaged 11.4 points per game at 84-52-2 with a couple of turnovers and six passes defended.
Singleton saw the writing on the wall and bolted to Denver in free agency. It looked like more of the same from Denver’s coaching staff as Josey Jewell and Jonas Griffin were supposed to be the starters in 2022. Jewell missed four of the first seven games and Griffith went on IR after week ten, so Singleton played 771 of a possible 1144 plays and was the fantasy games number 14 linebacker on the strength of 153 total tackles.
To their credit, the Denver organization saw what they have in Singleton, who played every snap in the final fourteen games of last season and is now the team’s established three-down linebacker.
At 106-71-2 with a pair of takeaways, Singleton was the IDP game’s LB7 in 2023. He might not have the best measurable but the guy tackles everything, all over the field, and will make a little splash play contribution to boot. Don’t be afraid to make Singleton your LB1. It might not be the sexy pick but there are few more dependable.
ILB Alex Singleton – Consistent and dependable, low-end LB1
ILB Cody Barton – Tackling machine LB unless we see a full-time role
ILB Drew Sanders – Achilles, out for the season
ILB Jonas Griffith – No impact anticipated
ILB Justin Strnad – Marginal value as an injury sleeper
Defensive Backs
The secondary is where we should see the most change. Patrick Surtain remains the lead man on the corner. Outside of that, nothing is set in stone. Holdovers Ja’Quan McMillan, Damarri Mathis, and Riley Moss are all in the mix, as are fifth-round rookie Kris Abrams-Draine and free-agent addition Levi Wallace. McMillan, Mathis, and Fabian Moreau all saw significant action in 2023 with Moreau starting for much of the season. He is gone so McMillan is the favorite entering camp. Only Surtain got more than 740 snaps in 2023 and unless someone steps up, we could see a similar situation this season. It’s been a long time since a Denver corner gave us much IDP value. Surtain led the team’s corners with under seven fantasy points per game last year. There is no reason to expect more this time around.
The safety situation is just as cloudy. Some prognosticators project Caden Sterns and free-agent addition Brandon Jones to start. Third-year man Delarrin Turner-Yell could get his name in the hat as well. Anything is possible here but my early money is on Jones and P.J. Locke. Locke stepped in after Kareem Jackson was suspended in October and subsequently released. He was an immediate improvement on the field and became an excellent late-season addition to our rosters. Lock reached double-digit points in five of the final six games, totaling 26-15-3 with a pair of forced fumbles and four pass breakups over that span.
Jones traveled a rocky road during his four years with Miami. He looked great at times and not so great at others but his biggest issue was an inability to stay on the field. Jones had opportunities to start but could never keep the job. He would look good for a stretch, then get banged up or benched. The fresh start could be just the ticket to salvage his career but first things first, he has to land the job.
Denver’s secondary was not fantasy-friendly in 2023. At least not unless you were playing a receiver against them. Justin Simmons led the group with a respectable average of 9.7 points per game, but low tackle totals left him hard to trust week in and week out. Taking a late-round flier on one of these players could pay dividends in the long run.
FS P.J. Locke – Late/last-round prospect that could surprise
SS Brandon Jones – High ceiling but low floor
SS Caden Sterns – Watch list guy with low end starters potential
FS Delarrin Turner-Yell – No impact expected
CB Patrick Surtain II – Great corners are generally not good IDP targets
CB Levi Wallace - Marginal impact at best
CB Damarri Mathis – Deep sleeper at best
CB Riley Moss – No impact anticipated
CB Kris Abrams-Draine – Rookie corner rule could be in play
That does it for part four of this year’s pre-season offering. Next up, the Arizona Cardinals
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