The Chargers defense was horrible last season. So bad in fact, that it helped get the entire coaching staff fired. After winning a National Championship at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh jumped ship and headed west. Not only is Harbaugh a defensive-minded coach, but he brought his defensive coordinator with him.
It’s a different team in a different league, with a different talent makeup and different personalities. So there is an element of unknown when it comes to predicting what Jesse Minter’s defense will look like. What we do know is that Minter will field an aggressive attacking style using both three and four-man fronts. That’s a good place to start. The rest will come down to what everyone’s roles are.
When it comes to personnel fit, Los Angeles has a lot of holdovers who are good players that should fit the kind of scheme we expect. There have been a few significant changes but this was not a situation where the incoming regime washed most of the roster and started over. There will likely be some bumps and a learning curve but this unit has a shot at being pretty good this year.
Defensive tackle/Edge
Talentwise, the new coaching staff inherits a trio of edge rushers that could prove to be special. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are an edge tandem that no offensive line looks forward to facing. Even last year’s second-round pick, Tuli Tuipulotu, looked good when his chance came. When I say they could be special, the emphasis is on could.
Bosa has proven he can be an exceptional player. When healthy, he is a 50+ tackle and double-digit sack guy. Unfortunately, Bosa has missed more games than he’s played over the last two seasons and has missed significant time in three of the last five. He was bothered by a nagging groin injury over the past few years. Bosa finally had surgery to repair that in 2022 then promptly missed half of 2023 with a foot sprain. He will be 29 in July but is entering his ninth season as a pro. The year is not bad but the mileage is a little high.
Khalil Mack is eternal. Seriously, the guy piled up a career-best of 17 sacks, forced 5 fumbles, had 57 solo tackles, and swatted down 10 passes, in his tenth season at age 32. He became the poster for managers starting players against their former teams when he bombed the Raiders with six sacks in week four. After that, no one could put out the fire.
Mack finished second to T.J. Watt in the final edge rankings. After such a stellar season, he is likely to come off the board as one of the first at the position. Mack is not a bad pick at that point but he could be a risky one.
He was outstanding in 2023 and yes, he has put up similar numbers in the past. It was way in the past though, like back in 2017 when last he exceeded 40 solo tackles. Or 2018 which was the last time Mack reached double-digit sacks.
Except for an injury-shortened 2021, Mack has at least eight sacks in every season since his rookie campaign in 2014. He always puts up decent, and sometimes spectacular tackle numbers as well. I see him as a solid Edge1 with a high floor but the risk makes it hard to count on another top-five season.
Tuli Tuipulotu got to play a lot of football as a rookie. He opened the season as the third man in the rotation but quickly graduated to number two when Bosa took a cut in snaps while nursing an injury. Once Bosa went on IR, Tuipulotu logged more than 80% of the snaps in each of the last eight games.
Tuipulotu finished with a modest four and a half sacks but he was around the quarterback a lot. History tells us that high numbers of pressures one season often turn into high numbers of sacks the next. He accounted for three turnovers and put up useful tackle numbers as well with 37 solos and 16 assists. With a 33-year-old on one side and an oft-injured starter on the other, it would seem practical for Tuipulotu to have a big role in what could potentially be a fairly even three-man rotation.
The Chargers added some insurance with the free-agent addition of Bud Dupree. Dupree had six and a half sacks for the Falcons last year and has reached double-digits once in his first nine seasons. Dupree had one big statistical season with the Steelers in 2019. So far that has been a career outlier.
Los Angeles made some changes at the tackle positions. Sebastian Joseph-Day, Nick Williams, and Austin Johnson were three of the team’s top-four down linemen last year. None of them are back but the organization spent very little on replacing them.
Morgan Fox was the team’s best interior pass rusher, totaling four and a half sacks last season. Because he can get after the passer a little, his role could be considerably bigger than the 437 snaps he got last year. Third-year, former fifth-round pick, Otito Ogbonnia has been penciled in at nose tackle while former Seattle starter, Poona Ford is penciled in as the third starter. On paper, this is a serviceable group for the Chargers with little IDP value for us. Fox is worthy of watch list status.
Fourth-round rookie Justin Edoigbe is a player we might slide into the dynasty watch list. He’s one of those guys with enough pass rush ability to be successful as the outside tackle in a 3-4 and plenty of sand in his pants to play outside on early downs in four-man fronts, then shift inside in passing situations.
DT Morgan Fox – Worth keeping an eye on in tackle-required formats
DT Poona Ford – No impact expected
DT Otito Ogbonnia – No impact expected
DT Justin Edoigbe – Dynasty deep sleeper
DT Scott Matlock – No impact expected
DE Joey Bosa – Injury risk with top-15 upside
DE Khalil Mack – Solid Edge1 with top-five potential
DE Tuli Tuipulotu – Dynasty/injury target that might be worth a roster spot
DE Bud Dupree – No impact expected
DE Chris Rumph – No impact
Linebackers
Linebacker is the one defensive position where the Chargers cleaned house. It is a position that the previous regime struggled with, leaving the cupboard bare. Eric Kendricks played on a one-year deal in 2023 and has moved on, while the new staff made no serious effort to bring back Kenneth Murray.
The Chargers will be fielding some combination of veteran Denzel Perryman, who they added in free agency, last year’s third-round pick Daiyan Henley, and third-round rookie Junior Colson. Many expect Perrynam and Colson to emerge as the starters here. About the only thing we know for certain is that at least one and possibly two of these players should put up good numbers for us.
As a proven veteran, it would make sense for Perryman to have a significant role. On the other hand, he has struggled to maintain a three-down role in any of his previous stops, including early in his career with the Chargers. If he does play full-time, history tells us his numbers will be good as long as it lasts.
Colson has the advantage of being picked by the current regime, after playing for them at Michigan. He is already familiar with the system and terminology, and the coaches know exactly what they have in him. It would be a shock if he were not to come out of camp as one of the starters.
Colson is not great in coverage but is not a liability either. It would seem the only real question will be if he can land a three-down role right away. The smart money says yes. The only real concern with Colson is his modest production at Michigan. In 29 games over the last two years, he only had 86 solo tackles, 110 assists, 2 sacks, and 3 passes defended.
Henley is the underdog entering this fight but he is not without positive attributes. He only played 53 snaps as a rookie so there is nothing to look at there. The way this team operated and finished last year, they probably should have played him a lot more.
Henley is a tough, high-energy player with good speed and physicality. He covers well and has excellent range. He also has eye-catching statistical production from his college days, especially in the big play columns. As a two-year starter for Nevada in 2021 and Washington State in 2022, Henley played 24 games totaling 155 solo stops, 94 assists, 4 sacks, 5 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries, 3 fumbles forced, and a pair of touchdowns. Give him the playmaker's advantage in this battle and keep a close eye on this one all summer.
ILB Junior Colson – Should be at least a decent LB3
ILB Denzel Perryman – Hit or miss prospect with a high ceiling and low floor
ILB Daiyan Henley – High upside sleeper
ILB Nick Niemann – No impact expected
ILB Troy Dye – No impact expected
Defensive Backs
Last year’s pass defense was hideous. Despite a strong pass rush, the Chargers were tied for 26th in interceptions, 24th in yards per attempt, 31st in passing yards allowed, and 24 in points surrendered through the air. I mention this now because the personnel are virtually the same. The only significant difference is that Kristian Fulton replaces Michael Davis at corner. Either they are putting off the secondary for next offseason or they are banking on last year’s mess being on the coaching.
From the IDP perspective, there is one big hitter among this group. Derwin James has the rare distinction of being a first-round pick as a safety. He was selected 17th overall in 2018 and has been worthy of the investment. After a stellar rookie campaign in 2018, James battled through injuries, seeing little action in 2019 and missing 2020 altogether. He has not completed a full slate of games since his rookie year but has not missed more than three in any of the last three seasons, including one in 2023.
James is an elite fantasy option, finishing as high as third and no lower than eighth among safeties in each of his four healthy seasons. His 86 solo stops last year ranked third among safeties. James is no stranger to the big play either. He has at least five combined sacks and takeaways in each of those four years as well. He is in the prime of his career at age 28 and is playing strong safety on a rebuilding team with uncertainty in the front seven. That sounds like the recipe for another top-five finish.
Alohi Gillman mans the other safety position. He is quietly a good compliment to James. As the deep safety most of the time, Gillman comes up short in the tackle columns on most weeks. Last season he put together a string of five games with double-digit points. Beyond that, he has not been very IDP-friendly. Gillman has made strong big-play contributions in each of the last two seasons, with 12 total takeaways. Unfortunately, that is not enough to make up for his poor tackle totals.
Asante Samuel is an outstanding young cover man and the cornerstone of the secondary. The team desperately needs someone else to step up and help him. Samuel is a rare phenomenon. Most great corners post their best numbers as a rookie and it’s all downhill from there. Samuel has done just the opposite, increasing his tackle production every season. That trend will need to continue for him to have much IDP value.
The addition of Fulton is an interesting one. This team is in dire need of playmakers in the secondary yet the one free-agent addition at the third level has four career interceptions in four seasons. He is a solid veteran player though, and should provide an upgrade over Davis on the field. Fulton has never amounted to much in fantasy terms. There is no reason to expect a change there.
After the top two corners, there is a battle to determine roster spots and a pecking order for playing time. Ja’Sir Taylor was seeing a fair amount of action as the third corner when he was injured last year. He will be in the mix for the third corner job, as will Deane Leonard, and rookies Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still. It has been a while since the Chargers gave us a useful option at the position anyway. Don’t hold your breath for that trend to end this year.
SS Derwin James – Elite tier DB1
FS Alohi Gilman – Inconsistent fantasy value at best
FS JT Woods – No impact
SS AJ Finley – No impact
CB Kristian Fulton – Marginal impact at best
CB Asante Samuel – Potential depth in leagues starting two corners
CB Ja’Sir Taylor – No impact expected
CB Deane Leonard – No impact expected
CB Tarheeb Still – No impact expected
CB Cam Hart - No impact expected
That does it for part three of this year’s pre-season offering. The Broncos are up next.
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