Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 2: Las Vegas Raiders

Last year’s EOTG coverage of the Raiders started with this statement: It is not a good sign when the best thing that can be said about an NFL defense is they were mediocre against the run. That pretty much summed up the Raiders’ defensive performance in 2022. Their 2023 season showed a big step in the right direction but there is still room for improvement.

Against the pass, the 2023 Raiders were twelfth in yards per attempt, thirteenth in passing scores allowed, fifteenth in interceptions, and thirteenth in sacks. On the ground, they finished fifteenth in yards per carry and surrendered the sixteenth most rushing scores. Las Vegas even landed in the middle of the pack in forced and recovered fumbles. Indeed, their lone top-ten statistical finish on the defensive side was the all-important, total points allowed where they were ninth.

The question is, will this team take the next step defensively? With their first three draft picks on the offensive side and just one significant defensive signing in free agency, the organization did not invest a lot of resources to get the job done, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will not happen.    

Defensive Linemen

In Maxx Crosby, both the Raiders and IDP managers have a cornerstone to build a winner around. Over his first three years as a pro, Crosby put up decent numbers while showing a lot of promise. In 2022, it all came together for him. That season he piled up 89 total tackles, including 58 solos, what was then a career-high 12.5 sacks, and forced 4 turnovers on his way to being the fantasy game’s top edge defender. Last season, Crosby confirmed he was much more than a one-year-wonder by going 55-35-14.5 with 3 turnovers on his way to another top-five finish. He is 26 years old and in the prime of his career. No one in last year’s top five is more likely to repeat than Crosby.

One big difference for Crosby and the Raiders between 2022 and 2023, is that he was no longer a one-man show last year. There was no help in 2022 when the team’s second-highest sack total was one and a half and the Raiders were dead last in sacks as a team. The 2023 Las Vegas had seven players with multiple sacks. One of them was rookie first-round pick Tyree Wilson who finished with three. The organization has big plans and high hopes for Wilson in the years to come. With the emergence of Malcolm Koonce over the second half of last seasone, Wilson might have to wait a while before realizing those expectations.  

Koonce was the team’s third-round pick in 2021. He was virtually invisible for two seasons, combining for eight tackles, four assists, and a pair of sacks over that span. Through week eight of last year, he was 8-7-0. Then the lights suddenly came on. Over the final nine games, Koonce racked up 24-4-8 including six sacks over the final four contests. Crosby is one of the rare defensive linemen who consistently plays over 90% of the snaps, so what might officially be a three-man rotation on the edge is really more of a two-man rotation between Wilson and Koonce at the spot opposite Crosby.

Koonce is expected to be the starter heading into the season though he and Wilson could see a relatively equal number of snaps. That could change, however, if Koonce continues to do so much more with the opportunity.  

Last year’s Las Vegas squad fielded a solid yet unspectacular interior line group. John Jenkins, Adam Butler, and Bilal Nichols are all dependable NFL starters. What the Raiders were missing was a playmaker on the interior line. With the free agent addition of Christian Wilkins, that problem is solved.

Wilkins is arguably the best three-down interior lineman in the game. At 310 pounds, he has the beef to stand up versus the run, defeat double teams, and make plays. He is not a great pass rusher but will make a solid contribution in that column. Some would point out that Wilkins racked up nine sacks last year. While true, those numbers are almost certainly an outlier considering he had no more than four in any of his other four seasons.

There is always some risk when a fantasy stud changes teams. That said, Wilkins is simply too good of a player to flop in virtually any scheme, and playing next to Crosby is going to be a plus. He has at least 65 combined stops, 3 sacks, two takeaways, and 4 batted passes in each of the last three seasons. Even the team change should not keep us from counting on Wilkins as a solid DT1.  

• DE Maxx Crosby – Elite tier stud
• DE Malcolm Koonce – Sleeper with DL2 potential
• DE Tyree Wilson – Deep sleeper with considerable long-term value
• DE Ellerson Smith – No impact expected
• DE Janarius Robinson – No impact
• DT Christian Wilkins – Quality DT1, solid DL2
• DT John Jenkins –  Possible depth in leagues starting two tackles
• DT Byron Young – Second-year deep sleeper
• DT Adam Butler – Marginal value
• DT Matthew Butler – No impact expected.

Go Deeper: See our defensive end projections here >>>
Go Deeper: See our defensive tackle projections here >>> 

 Linebackers

The Raiders organization simply does not invest significant capital at the linebacker positions. The last time they used a first-round pick on one was 2010 and the last time they used a second was 2006. If you are trying to remember who those players were, there is a reason they don’t come to mind. Neither Rolando McClain nor Thomas Howard ever amounted to much.  

For most of the last two decades, the team has gotten by with patchwork solutions. We have seen a lot of mid to late-round picks and bargain-priced free agents manning the positions over the years. Until last season, the two best fantasy targets over the last 30 years were probably 1993 seventh-round pick Greg Biekert and 2005 third-rounder Kirk Morrison.

The lack of quality play at the off-ball linebacker positions was a major contributor to the Raiders' struggles in 2022. Likewise, Improvement at the second level had a lot to do with the overall improvement of the defense last season. They have still not made a big investment in terms of capital spent but the emergence of Divine Deablo and Robert Spillane have this unit on the right track and have the attention of IDP managers.

Diablo was a college safety who transitioned to linebacker when he was drafted by the team in 2021. His role was limited as a rookie but Diablo landed the starting job on the weak side in his second season. He was the team’s leading tackler before missing the last nine games with a broken forearm.

Diablo returned to the starting lineup last year posting at least seven combined tackles in five of the first six games before leaving the week seven contest with an ankle injury. He returned to total double-digit fantasy points in five of the last seven games.

As a former safety, Diablo has the speed and cover skills to handle an every down role but unlike his counterpart, Robert Spillane, Diablo did not play every snap in any game in 2023. He did, however, see at least 80% of the snaps in ten games and over 90% in five. Diablo averaged just under ten points per game on the season. If we take out the games that were affected by the ankle injury, that average bumps up to double digits. The bottom line in fantasy terms is that Diablo is not going to be an elite option for us but should be at least a decent LB3 or quality depth.

With the Steelers' recent struggles to find an every-down inside linebacker, it was surprising that they did not sign Spillane to a long-term deal. The Raiders are certainly happy with that decision. He stepped right into the lead role in Las Vegas, performing well both on the field and in the box scores. Spillane played every snap in all but two games totaling 82 tackles and 66 assists. He set career highs in the big play columns as well with five takeaways and three and a half sacks. Those numbers were good enough to make him the first top-ten fantasy linebacker in a Raiders uniform since Kirk Morrison.

Spillane spent most of his four seasons with the Steelers in a backup role so not only is he fairly young at 28, but he also has low mileage. The organization is more than satisfied with his performance so there were no significant additions at the position. That should mean another productive campaign. Spillane was the fantasy game’s LB9 in 2023. He may not climb any higher than that but should be at least a dependable LB2 for us going forward.

The Raiders rarely fielded more than two linebackers at a time in 2023. When they did, Luke Masterson was the third man. He has seen enough action in his two seasons as a pro, to prove himself to the organization and become the top backup to both starters. Should either Diablo or Spillane go down, Materson would likely be a worthy addition to fantasy rosters.

There is a wildcard here in fifth-round rookie Tommy Eichenberg. The former Ohio State starter fell to day three because he is not particularly fast or athletic, and did not test all that well. The Raiders picked him because he is tough, physical at the point of attack, has a great motor and made a lot of plays for the Buckeyes. Eichenberg missed three games with an arm injury last year but in 23 games as a starter over the last two years, he totaled 202 combined tackles, 4 turnovers, and 3.5 sacks. Put him on the dynasty watch list.            

• MLB Robert Spillane – Solid LB2 with low LB1 ceiling
• WLB Divine Deablo – Strong LB4 with LB3 upside and a little injury risk
• SLB Luke Masterson – Injury sleeper
• MLB Tommy Eichenberg – Dynasty watchlist
• WLB Amari Burney - No impact expected
• SLB Darien Butler - No impact expected

Go Deeper: See our linebacker projections here >>>

Defensive Backs

Considering the roster they had to work with, the Las Vegas secondary played good team football in 2023. The Raiders have assembled a group of good, mostly young players but there remains a glaring lack of star power. With the only additions being fourth-round pick Decamerion Richardson and a pair of seventh-rounders, Trey Taylor and MJ Devonshire, they will have to play good team football again.

This is a unit that accounted for nine interceptions last season with safety Trevor Moehrig leading the charge at three. Moehrig, a 2021 second-round pick, was extremely quiet statistically over his first two years in the league. A change in role woke up his production in year three. He shifted from being the full-time deep safety to seeing a lot more action in run support fits while working in more of a strong safety alignment. The change virtually doubled his tackle production while taking Moehrig from one splash play in his first two seasons, to five in year three. At 65-18-2 with 3 picks and 8 pass breakups, he hardly set the box scores on fire but was productive enough to earn a roster spot in most IDP leagues and a DB3 role in many.

The question with Moehrig is, was last year the ceiling or just the first step toward bigger things to come? There is no way to know the answer at this point. What we do know is that he is worthy of a spot on the bottom of our rosters until we find out. At worst, he should provide solid depth. At best, Moehrig could blossom into an every-week starter.  

At this point last year we expected Marcus Epps to be the Raiders' strong safety. Instead, he lined up as the deep man in the secondary most of the time. Epps is expected to have the same role in 2024, which means zero IDP value. The position has not produced more than 40 solo tackles in any of the last three seasons.  

The most valuable fantasy target in the Raiders secondary is corner Nate Hobbs. He is locked into one of the starting jobs with Jack Jones penciled in at the other. On the field, Hobbs is a solid cover man. His style of play is to be safe, make few mistakes, and not give up big plays. The box score result from that approach is that Hobbs gives up a lot of short completions and makes a bunch of tackles but he is not a playmaker.

In 2023, Hobbs missed four games and was still thelveth in solo stops among corners. On the other hand, the three-year starter has two career interceptions and fourteen career pass breakups. If your scoring emphasizes splash plays, Hobbs is not your man. If you desire the consistency of strong tackle totals, Hobbs is your huckleberry. If we project his average tackles per game over a full season, he would have led the league in solo stops from the position last year while his average of 10.2 points per game ranked ninth.

Jack Jones had a short, strange stay in New England where he went from starter in 2022 to the waiver wire in November of 2023. It’s hard to say what went on behind the scenes in New England. Jones started and was impressive until he was injured, returned from the injury then landed in the dog house after missing a curfew, and was waived two weeks later. What we do know is that he could be the playmaker Las Vegas desperately needs. In 17 NFL starts, he has six takeaways, eleven pass breakups, and three touchdowns. We don’t know yet what kind of tackle production he can put up but if it’s decent, Jones could be worthy of consideration in corner-required leagues.

Jakorian Bennett started some games for the Raiders last year and will be the favorite to see action in nickel packages. That said, beyond Hobbs and Jones, the pecking order is wide open and will be determined during camp. There is plenty of experience behind the starters but no one that is likely to shine in the box scores.    

• FS Marcus Epps – No impact
• SS Trevor Moehrig – Potential DB3
• SS Trey Taylor – Dynasty watchlist
• FS Chris Smith – No impact
• CB Nate Hobbs – Solid CB1 or DB3
• CB Jack Jones – Sleeper with big-play upside
• CB Brandon Facyson – No impact
• CB Jakorian Bennett – No impact expected
• CB Decamerion Richardson – Rookie Corner Rule could be in play if he gets on the field

Go Deeper: See our cornerback projections here >>>
Go Deeper: See our safety projections here >>>

That does it for part two of this year’s preseason offering. The Chargers are up next.  

Enjoy this article? Find more from John here.