As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me produce projections for the website, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab and others I wanted to avoid.
Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.
This is Part 3 of a 4 Part Series.
TE Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, Ind/8 - The team says they will get both young TEs involved this year, but I suspect we see a lot more of Allen than Fleener. Allen is the better blocker and allows the team to disguise their runs and passes a lot more. He could be poised for a breakout year in his second season.
TE David Ausberry, Oak/7 - He is the starting TE in Oakland. Pryor or Flynn could be using Ausberry as a safety valve a lot this season. He is flying miles below the radar, but has a big upside. TEs accounted for 88 receptions and 907 yards for Oakland last year.
TE Jordan Cameron, Cle/10 - WR Josh Gordon will start the year suspended and signs point to the team leaning on Cameron a great deal during those early weeks. Gifted with a basketball type frame, Cameron is built to succeed in a Norv Turner offense that has a history of utilizing the TE. He also gets to play on a team that has one of the best OLs ensuring that he should be able to release on a lot of plays as a check down.
TE Fred Davis, Was/5 - Davis has flashed massive potential when healthy and could be the teams #2 receiving target behind WR Pierre Garcon if all falls right. He is a low risk/high reward player that should be targeted in all drafts.
TE Vernon Davis, SF/9 - The 49ers had him play wide receiver in a couple of practices and everyone's early "sleeper" now looks like someone who is "over-valued". The 49ers will likely use Davis more this season than last, but I am skeptical that he plays much as a wide receiver. He will need to slide from his current lofty ADP for me to be a buyer this year.
TE Ed Dickson, Bal/8 - He was slated for a bigger role when the team let WR Anquan Boldin leave for free agency. This "potential" increased even more when Dennis Pitta fell to injury. Unfortunately a hamstring has derailed him in camp, but there are now reports that he is close to returning to the field. The end result of this rollercoaster is Dickson could be a huge value pick this season.
TE Jermichael Finley, GB/4 - The difference between the 2011 and 2012 stat lines for the talented (yet often under-producing) TE had to do with TDs. He scored 8 TDs in 2011 and just 2 in 2012. These TD numbers should easily improve this season with the departure of Greg Jennings. It also helps that WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are not playing at 100%. The biggest positive to take away from last year for Finley is that he caught 6 more passes despite 7 less targets.
TE Antonio Gates, SD/8 - Last year, he looked fat and slow. But somehow we are suppose to believe that was a mirage and this year's version is faster and leaner. I doubt he is suddenly fast again. And as bad as the San Diego offensive linemen is as a unit, I suspect Gates will be forced to stay back and block a lot as well. Not a buyer of his big "comeback"
TE Tony Gonzalez, Atl/6 - Old man is still getting it done. They have little else behind him so I doubt we see much if any dropoff in 2013.
TE Jimmy Graham, NO/7 - We might be seriously under-estimating what he is capable of. He could haul in 100 catches and add double digit TDs. In some formats (like the FPC), that would make him a top 3 player.
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE/10 - He might be the hardest guy to project this year. We know what he is capable of when healthy, but will he be 100% when he returns? My gut tells me he has a season for the ages once he hits the field. They need him more than ever with the WR departures and the Hernandez arrest. He is the ultimate risk/reward pick.
TE Rob Housler, Ari/9 - I was a non-believer before he was hurt. He is way off my radar now.
TE Brandon Pettigrew, Det/9 - If preseason is any clue, I suspect the countless drops continue again this season. Shockingly, I prefer tight ends that can actually catch the ball. He should be a TD machine with the bodies that are always draped on Calvin Johnson, but I suspect he will under-perform expectations again.
TE Kyle Rudolph, Min/5 - He scored 9 TDs despite averaging just 9.3 yards per catch and catching only 55% of his targets. A whopping 24 TEs bested his yardage totals in 2012. In fact, 11 of his 16 regular season games saw him recording less than 40 yards receiving. He is way overpriced in my eyes. If he loses the TDs, his value will plummet.
TE Luke Stocker, TB/5 - Not sure how this guy is getting no love. He is the clear starter for the Bucs. Reserve the last round of your FPC drafts for this guy and remember me when you win your league.
TE Zach Sudfeld, NE/10 - And this is why teams play the preseason. He looks very good already and should have a big role while Rob Gronkowski heals. It will be interesting to see what his role is after Gronkowski is back. It might be a lot more than we are all projecting.
TE Jacob Tamme and Julius Thomas, Den/9 - The feeling I have in Denver is that there are simply too many mouths to feed. This passing attack is sick on paper, but are they really going to need it all against divison opponents like Oakland and San Diego? With the addition of Wes Welker, I suspect the tight ends have a limited role. I am not interested in either of these players unless the WRs start missing time on the field.
TE Jason Witten, Dal/11 - The team promises to get him more involved in the redzone. Wait? They have said that every year for the last 5 haven't they? I don't think that happens. They have Dez Bryant who schools people one-on-one. I suspect Witten banks another huge catch season with just a handful of scores.