The Daily Grind: Week 12 Edition

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome to the 2016 version of The Daily Grind, a look at Daily Fantasy Football from several vantage points.  Together we will look at many different topics this season – from managing expectations and bankroll to what Footballguys has in store for 2016 and how to best use what this site has to offer to maximize both your enjoyment and your bankroll by Super Bowl LI.  So let’s jump right in with some thoughts on both expectations for playing this year and also a first take at a guided tour for Footballguys’ DFS coverage this season: 

DFS LESSON OF THE WEEK - THANKSGIVING AND LIMITED GAME CONTESTS

It’s a short week here at Footballguys (like everywhere else) due to the long weekend holiday, but I wanted to take a little time out here to share a timely lesson.  This week is Thanksgiving, and many sites are offering Thanksgiving only contests.   That means that there are contests with the players from only three contests (this year, Minnesota at Detroit, Washington at Dallas and Pittsburgh at Indianapolis), which sounds like a much easier game to play – but the truth is actually exactly the opposite.    These contests have fewer players to choose from, so every player choice is far more critical to the outcome of the contest, and the fewer games increases the odds against you winning. 

This has been a hot topic amongst the Footballguys’ staff for years when it comes to DFS.  Let me start by sharing yet another conversation amongst the Footballguys’ staff from a few years ago.  I was looking at a Monday-Thursday contest on DraftKings where the Eagles-Panthers and Miami-Buffalo contests were the two games from which you could select players.  Because of the low cost of nearly every player, there was no possible lineup you could create which would maximize your salary cap.  That meant that you could take any players you wanted and not be inhibited at all by the salary cap restriction.  That got me to thinking that there could be an advantage here, but a few of the great minds here quickly changed my view.  For example, Danny Tuccitto summed up the problem quite nicely with these two short but powerful paragraphs:

Thinking of this question from a game theory perspective...

Assume you are the best in the world at making lineup decisions, and that gives you an edge over the entire field in any DFS game. In that world, your best game would be the one that requires the most lineup decisions because it multiplies your edge the most. Therefore, the games with highly restricted player pools (e.g., Monday-Thursday, Sunday Night Football-Monday Night Football, Sunday Afternoons only, etc.) wouldn't be as profitable as the ones using all (or almost all) of the week's slate (e.g., Thursday-Monday or Sunday-Monday). Don’t get me wrong, the restricted games would still be profitable because you're the best decision maker in the world; they just aren't the best games for you if your goal is to maximize profits -- which it obviously is.

It's pretty much the same principle underlying why people advise novice poker players to highly restrict their pre-flop ranges and play as ABC as possible. Playing premium hands (i.e., choosing from a restricted "card pool") means playing fewer hands, which means having to make fewer (and easier) decisions, all of which are preferred when you don't have a decision-making edge over your opponents. It's only when you've gained said edge that you should widen your range in hopes of multiplying your edge over a larger number of (increasingly tougher) decisions.

Rock solid thinking here.

Let me give a simple example here that sums it up quickly.  Let’s say you are in a 50/50 league with 90 entries.  In a normal week with 30 teams in play (either due to byes or a Thursday game), that would mean that – on average – the quarterbacks, kickers (if any) and defenses would all be equally represented in three lineups in the league each.  Now of course there are some better defenses, so let’s say the best defenses would be represented 3-4 times as much, but that is still only 9-12 lineups, or 10-13% of the teams in the league using those teams. 

Now, let’s take this to a Thanksgiving contest with just six teams in play with the same 90 entries.  There are only six viable quarterbacks, kickers and defenses to pick from, so odds are that every one of them will be used at least 15 times, or be on 17% of the lineups or more.  That means if you choose the wrong one, you will be at a big disadvantage and that your lack of a unique lineup (because so many other lineups will contain the players you use), your odds of recovering from that disadvantage are not good.

So the simple lesson this week is to avoid playing limited player pool games – but not entirely.  I will throw one curveball at you (to change sports analogies briefly).  If you really want to play and this Thursday, consider tournament entries only - which is exactly what DraftKings and FanDuel are promoting - these Thursday tournaments.  That is the way to play for Thursday.  Only put in a lineup that tells a story well for the two or three games involved for that contest.  If you think Dallas is going to run a ton and shut down the Washington offense, use Ezekiel Elliott, Dan Bailey and the Cowboys defense – but do not use Kirk Cousins or Jordan Reed.  That would not make sense with your game script.  Be sure to be consistent in your thinking and your lineup decisions.  (This goes back to last week’s discussion of DFS Tetris – make sure all the pieces fit to tell your story).

Bottom line - have some fun and enter a few tournament entries for Thanksgiving to make your Happy Thanksgiving even happier.

Have fun and Happy Thanksgiving.

Evaluating Tournaments – Thanksgiving Edition

A few weeks ago I talked about using my 1% / 2% Rule on evaluating tournaments.  The idea is to not look only at first place, but to see what you can win if you finish the Top 1% or Top 2% of the standings.  As a review, here is a link to Week 10’s Daily Grind.

I wanted to revisit this because there are so many Thanksgiving GPPs that are popping up this week.  Figuring out these unique tournaments and which ones should be the best plays can be tricky, so applying the same rule to measure them can really help.

Below you will find a few tournaments for FanDuel and DraftKings as measured by the 1% / 2% Rule:

Table 1 – FanDuel Thanksgiving Tournaments and ROI

Take note on FanDuel at just how bad the returns look for the Rush.  Normally the Rush is one of the better tournaments on FanDuel, but they really missed the mark this week.  If you fail to finish in the Top 1% of the tournament, you will be guaranteed a return no better than 5x your entry fee, and missing the Top 2% leaves with barely a 3x (or worse) return.  That’s not good at all.  I strongly suggest moving to the Snap, Dive or the Bomb which has better ROIs.

Another piece of advice before we look at the tournaments on DraftKings.  Both sites often have their first tournaments fill up (as the Dive may as soon as Wednesday), but they often launch a second, smaller verison of those tournaments.  The payout structure for the second (or third) iteration of these contests often is flatter and has a better ROI than the initial contest.  Be sure to learn how to quickly apply the 1% / 2% rule when these appear so you can quickly determine on your own if these are worth the entry.

Now, here are a few of the DraftKings Thanksgiving GPPs;

Table 2 – DraftKings Thanksgiving Tournaments and ROI

Both the $20 Wishbone and the $3 3-Plate Special look better than Mini-Wishbone and Backyard Football Special from an ROI perspective.  That’s interesting, as I normally would have guessed that the Mini-Wishbone was comparable or better than the main Wishbone. This is why you really need to do the math for every GPP you see.  I also like that the 3-Plate Special has not just good ROI but a limit of just three entries.

Best of luck this week, enjoy the holiday and may all the scoring be in your favor!

Happy Thanksgiving!

A GUIDED TOUR TO FOOTBALLGUYS’ DFS 2016 COVERAGE (FINAL EDITION)

Over the past three weeks I have provided you a guided tour to all the DFS coverage Footballguys is providing this season. Here at Footballguys, we have dedicated a good amount of the staff and resources to give you the best DFS content possible, and the intent of this tour was to highlight as much of the content and how to use it as possible.  As a courtesy to you the reader each week, I will leave this placeholder so you can find the tour in the future and can find the articles and tools you use the most.  Just remember to check the week number in the link, as it will take you to Week 3 content.  

Here is the final version of the tour:

Week 3 Daily Grind DFS Tour

Good luck to you in all of your contests!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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