Welcome to the 2016 version of The Daily Grind, a look at Daily Fantasy Football from several vantage points. Together we will look at many different topics this season – from managing expectations and bankroll to what Footballguys has in store for 2016 and how to best use what this site has to offer to maximize both your enjoyment and your bankroll by Super Bowl LI. So let’s jump right in with some thoughts on both expectations for playing this year and also a first take at a guided tour for Footballguys’ DFS coverage this season:
With recent changes at FanDuel and DraftKings regarding the exclusion of Monday Night Footbll from their main slate of games, I thought it would be very timely to talk about how to handle this new DFS dynamic. Understanding the implications of different games in the main slates – or seeking out different slates that use the Monday night contest – is incredibly important to your success and increasing your daily fantasy sports bankroll.
Handling Thursday Night Football
Before I delve into slates of games involving Monday Night Football, let’s talk about DFS contests that start the week on Thursday. When we first wrote the Footballguys’ e-books (Cracking FanDuel, Cracking DraftKings), we talked about how to handle Thursday Night Football. From Chapter 3:
The Thursday Night Fade
If you take only one lesson from this section, make it this one: In large-field tournaments, it will almost always be correct to avoid players from the Thursday night game. Novice and casual DFS users cannot resist watching their fantasy players on national TV. Their thirst for action (and disregard for good process) will typically inflate the ownership percentages of Thursday players, regardless of whether or not the circumstances actually warrant it. As you read in the earlier section on tournament play, there’s value in owning at least a few unique players. For this reason alone, fading the Thursday night game will generally be the correct play in tournaments.
What isn’t mentioned above is how to handle Thursday Night Football from a cash game perspective. The general rules still apply – ownership rates of Thursday game players are going to be higher than expected because infrequent DFS players want to watch their guys play, and thus more lineups than usual will include players from the Thursday Night Football contest. That can be a positive or a negative each week, because if you decide to include these players, they need to perform well for you to be ahead of the pack (or to keep pace with the rest of the herd, at least) before the rest of the lineup takes the field on Sunday or Monday. If you exclude (“fade”) Thursday Night Football participants, your lineup will either be far behind the contest average score, or your roster will be in a good position to come out ahead by avoiding the traps from that game early in the week.
This situation is very similar to the topic of Dak Prescott from Week 1, where most everyone that played DFS knew well before Sunday that he was going to be very highly owned in cash games. The question was whether it was smart to include or exclude him in the lineup. The net result comes down to personal belief on the player – if you took the stance like Devin Knotts did where you wanted to steer clear of Prescott that week and he underperformed, you were rewarded. Had he played well, most cash lineups lacking in the cheap quarterback would be losing that week. The general consensus thinking is that NFL players do not play as well on Thursdays due to the short week for both rest and game prep, so fading those players makes the most sense. The e-books went further in saying that if you wanted to pick a Thursday night player to include, stick to a defense or a running back, preferably from the home favorite.
So with all that background, how does this translate to Monday Night Football? I am glad you asked.
Monday is the New Thursday
Let’s start with the similarities we have now with Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football. Some are obvious, such as both games are national broadcasts and the only game of the night – but DFS changes have made Monday Night Football similar to Thursday at both FanDuel and DraftKings (and to some extent, Yahoo and other sites as well). For both of these games, players from these prime time contests are going to be only available on some slates, not the main slates. This simple fact has major DFS implications. Ownership is going to be high for Thursday Night Football players because of reasons I mentioned earlier, but Monday Night Football player ownerships are going to be higher than usual because DFS players are playing slates that include that game for a reason – namely, they want one or more of the players from that game in their lineup. If they did not want a Monday Night Football player, they probably would not be playing those slates. Unlike Thursday games, these players are going to be at full strength with proper rest and game preparation, so decisions have to be made on whether it makes sense to use or fade Monday Night Football players.
There are two schools of thought on how to playing both cash and GPP contests knowing this information. Both of them build on one key element – taking a stance on the likely-to-be highly owned players in one direction or another. If you are going to play one of these slates that includes the extra game, you have to have a strong take on a player. Two strong examples come from last Monday, where Derek Anderson and Greg Olsen were both highly owned as the Panthers faced Tampa Bay. Both were highly owned, and one player (Olsen) performed well above expectations, while Anderson fell on his face. Rosters with Olsen had a big advantage, while Anderson owners had to find fantasy help elsewhere in their lineups.
So when it comes to cash line lineups, here are the general rules of thumb:
- If you believe a highly-owned player in Monday Night Football will underperform, play cash game lineups that include Monday and fade that player.
- If you believe ANY player in Monday Night Football will outperform expectations, play cash or GPP contests that include Monday and load up on that player.
- If you do not have a strong take on any Monday Night Football player in either direction, stick with the main slate.
Tournaments have to get a little bit of their own commentary here, because most winning GPP teams have some element of a stack involved (usually of the QB-WR or QB-TE type). DFS players playing tournaments that involve the Monday Night Football contest are going to be heavily owned – much more than expected – so swimming upstream would be the goal here. Taking a non-Monday stack on these slates would be the way to go, or to take a less common Monday stack (such as a Derek Anderson – Ted Ginn Jr combination).
Knowing that players are going to be highly owned on Thursday Night Football gives DFS players an advantage by (usually) fading players from that game and thus having fewer lineups to compete against that could finish in the payout zone. Monday Night Football slates can now also be played in a similar fashion. Just be sure on the stance you are taking regarding the players in that extra contest.
Best of luck this week!
A GUIDED TOUR TO FOOTBALLGUYS’ DFS 2016 COVERAGE (FINAL EDITION)
Over the past three weeks I have provided you a guided tour to all the DFS coverage Footballguys is providing this season. Here at Footballguys, we have dedicated a good amount of the staff and resources to give you the best DFS content possible, and the intent of this tour was to highlight as much of the content and how to use it as possible. As a courtesy to you the reader each week, I will leave this placeholder so you can find the tour in the future and can find the articles and tools you use the most. Just remember to check the week number in the link, as it will take you to Week 3 content.
Here is the final version of the tour:
Good luck to you in all of your contests!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.