The Daily Grind: Week 4 Edition

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome to the 2016 version of The Daily Grind, a look at Daily Fantasy Football from several vantage points.  Together we will look at many different topics this season – from managing expectations and bankroll to what Footballguys has in store for 2016 and how to best use what this site has to offer to maximize both your enjoyment and your bankroll by Super Bowl LI.  So let’s jump right in with some thoughts on both expectations for playing this year and also a first take at a guided tour for Footballguys’ DFS coverage this season: 

How to sort through yOUR WEEKLY Player LIst for DFS LineuPS

You can find lots of DFS content all over the place, including right here at Footballguys, but sometimes there is a topic that is not usually discussed.  Every week there are tons of articles about which players are good to use, which ones to avoid, and which players are cash or tournament options.  The problem I find is that the reason that these players fit into any of these categories each week is often glossed over, which leaves new DFS players wondering how to come up with their own list.  I hope to solve that problem for you today.

Footballguys has written a TON of great information on getting started in DFS, including two great e-books for FanDuel (“Cracking FanDuel”) and DraftKings (“Cracking DraftKings”).  The staff went into great detail on the criteria for these players on each site, and there is fantastic information in there for new and experienced players alike.  But when it comes to easy rules of thumb, I find that it sometimes helps to put together a Cliffs Notes version to help all levels of players to sift through all the fantasy players each week and find just the ones to focus on when you consider who to use to build your lineups each week.

Here are my goals this week.  I am going to break down the general rules of thumb for cash and GPP tournament multipliers for all five major sites (FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyAces, Yahoo and FantasyDraft) and then apply those rules to each of the five major position categories (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense / special teams) to determine what is the minimum number of fantasy points you need for a given fantasy player (or team) to be worth consideration for a lineup each and every week.  The idea here is to apply those rules of thumb to each site and position, considering the multipliers and the minimum price for each spot, and be able to sift through all the players to get a much shorter list of players to focus on when doing your research.  

So where do we start?  It is easy enough for FanDuel and DraftKings, because Footballguys has established the rules of thumb for both sites for target lineup scores for both cash and GPP contests.   At FanDuel, the usual goal is 120 points for a cash game lineup, and the lineup budget is $60,000.  That means you want two fantasy points for every $1,000 spent on players, which is a multiple of “2x”.  In tournaments, the target jumps 50% to 180, which makes the multiple “3x”.  DraftKings is a little different with a roster budget of $50,000, a cash target of 150 points and a GPP target of 200 points.  That all translates to multipliers of “3x” and “4x”, respectively, for DraftKings players. 

Here is where I go the extra mile.  With the help of the staff writers that write our feature pieces on the other three sites (“Exclamation Point!" By Danny Tuccitto, “Acing Aces” by Danny Tuccitto, and “FantasyDraft Dominator” by Dan Hindery), I was able to pull together the cash and GPP multipliers for each of those sites, along with the target scores for cash and GPP winning lineups.  The easiest example is FantasyDraft, the general rule of thumb for the rosters and salaries is “double of DraftKings”, so the lineup budget is $100,000 but the target scores are still 150 and 200.  That works out to a multiplier of half of DraftKings for cash (1.5) and GPP (2). 

FantasyAces and Yahoo are both a little different.  The target scores for FantasyAces is similar to FanDuel (120 for cash, 180 for GPPs) but the lineup budget is $50,000, so the multipliers change a little (cash is 2.4, GPP is 3.6).  Yahoo is the strangest of them all, as they use whole single dollar pricing, so the lineup budget is just $200, but players range from $10-40.  Cash lineup target scores are similar to FanDuel and FantasyAces (120 cash, 180 GPP) so the multipliers just change a bit.   Oddly enough that works out to multipliers for 0.6 and 0.9, respectively.

Before I give you the summary charts and begin to break them down, there is one more piece of the puzzle that you need from every site, which is often overlooked.  The question that has to be asked is “What is the minimum price for each position?”  This is very important, because this helps to determine how many fantasy points a given player must get to be worth consideration for a cash lineup or a tournament roster.  Let me provide a very quick example – FanDuel starts quarterback pricing at $6,000, and the multiple for cash is 2x.  That means a cash game quarterback has to be projected for AT LEAST 12 points in order to “make value”, or to be considered worth using for the week. 

Before I go on and on about the differences between sites, let’s get the reference tables to you that you have been waiting for so patiently:

Table 1 – Quarterbacks

Table 2 – Running Backs and Wide Receivers

Table 3 – Tight Ends

Table 4 – Defense / Special Teams

Let’s work our way up from the bottom.  Defenses are pretty simple to understand, across all sites – you want a team that has a shot at getting double-digit points.  High single digits is OK, but if they manage to get that home run of a touchdown, value is virtually assured.  Picking a defense that gets several sacks and a few turnovers, or keeps the opposition from scoring too much, should do just fine.

Things start to get interesting as we jump up to Table 1 and quarterbacks.  As I mentioned earlier, the fantasy point minimum at FanDuel is 12 points ($6K x 2), but the comparison to the other four sites highlights some major differences.  FantasyAces ($5K x 2.4) lines up nicely to the 12 points at FanDuel, as does Yahoo ($20 x 0.6), as expected given that all three sites have the same lineup total points targets.  DraftKings and FantasyDraft align (also expected), but the minimum fantasy points for a cash game quarterback go up to 15, which means that better quarterbacks have to be considered.  To state it another way, you can’t “punt” at quarterback on DraftKings and FantasyDraft like you can on FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyAces.  An astute eye probably notes that FantasyDraft and DraftKings gives a 3-point bonus at 300 yards passing, but I would argue that a punt play at quarterback should not be flirting with 300+ yards, so the general rule of thumb to avoid cheap quarterbacks holds true.

Table 2 takes us to running backs and wide receivers.  Both positions have the same prices on all five sites, so that makes the discussion of the two spots acceptable.  What jumps off the table is that Yahoo’s minimum price of $10 leads to a very low threshold for relevance for cash RB and WR players (only six points), so punting is very much in play at this position in Yahoo lineups.  FantasyAces represents the higher end of the spectrum with 12 points minimum, so that means you need to have quality players in your lineups (i.e. no “punts”) for RB and WR.  FanDuel falls in the middle with nine points, as do DraftKings and FantasyDraft.  The one thing to note on the last two is the very low minimum price for RBs and WRs – if a starter comes out of these “punt plays”, they become must starts because of how easy it is for these spots to reach value, especially since these are the only full PPR sites listed.

Our final positional discussion focuses on Table 3 and tight ends.  Yahoo actually represents the lowest minimum fantasy value, so this if you have a punt play at tight end, Yahoo is the site to use that player for your lineups.  FantasyAces (7.2) is close to FantasyDraft and DraftKings (7.5), but again I have to point out it is far easier to hit value for a tight end on a full PPR site.   As an example, any tight end that catches a touchdown will score a minimum of 7.1 points (six for the score, one yard = 0.1 points, and one point for the catch), so any red zone threat can hit value on a single play.  FanDuel makes it slightly harder with a threshold of nine points and with 0.5 PPR (like Yahoo and FantasyAces), but a touchdown still results in 6.6 points.   All of these factors make tight end the best overall place to find value and to consider a cheap option.

Notice I did not discuss GPP values here, but the charts still have those values.  The general guidelines still apply, so a mixture of using these tables and a general upside for a GPP player should be considered. On some sites like Yahoo, one single big play for a running back, wide receiver or a tight end can achieve GPP value with a threshold below 10 points, while quarterbacks require 18-20 or more on all sites I hope that you found this discussion useful, and feel free to refer back to the tables as a reference as you build more and more winning lineups.  Below is a brief summary of the takeaway points:

-        QB – Cheap (“punt”) quarterbacks are in play more at FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyAces.  DraftKings and FantasyDraft require more points, so a better quarterback should be used most of the time.

-        RB  and WR – Yahoo is the best place to punt this position.  FantasyDraft and DraftKings tie with FanDuel for next best place to use a value pick, but it is slightly easier to make value on the first two due to full PPR.  FantasyAces is not the place to go cheap at these positions in general because at least 12 fantasy points are required to hit value, the highest threshold of all five sites.

-        TE – This is the best position to punt overall.  Yahoo is still the cheapest (again, six point threshold for cash on a minimum player), while FantasyDraft and DraftKings come in next.  A minimum price tight end on these two sites hits value with a single touchdown.  FantasyAces is similar with a slightly lower threshold despite only 0.5 PPR.  FanDuel requires the highest points for value, but at single digits a touchdown for a tight end should be very close to value.

A GUIDED TOUR TO FOOTBALLGUYS’ DFS 2016 COVERAGE (FINAL EDITION)

Over the past three weeks I have provided you a guided tour to all the DFS coverage Footballguys is providing this season. Here at Footballguys, we have dedicated a good amount of the staff and resources to give you the best DFS content possible, and the intent of this tour was to highlight as much of the content and how to use it as possible.  As a courtesy to you the reader each week, I will leave this placeholder so you can find the tour in the future and can find the articles and tools you use the most.  Just remember to check the week number in the link, as it will take you to Week 3 content.  

Here is the final version of the tour:

Week 3 Daily Grind DFS Tour

Good luck to you in all of your contests!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Follow @JeffPasquino