RB2 By Committee: Update

Photo: USA Today Sports

 A few weeks ago, I first wrote the RB2BC for standard leagues article for this season - but as often happens, our members wanted more.  With both of the recommended running backs gaining in the ADP (I will refrain from saying I was directly responsible for this), the emails and tweets have rolled in for more advice with Joique Bell getting drafted earlier than expected.   So what else can I do but write an article?  This is my attempt to provide a better guide for you on your Draft Day.  I will not re-do the entire article here, as you can certainly go back and read the methods for finding the committee pairs in the original article.  Today I am only going to focus on what you want - the results.

So Joique Bell is now more expensive - does that change the plan?  We will get to that, but first we have to talk about the good news vs. the bad news here.  Whenever running backs go up in ADP, another one falls - and this year, there are 25-30 reasonable guys to target.  That makes RB2BC a solid plan, no matter who the backs turn out to be.  

Let's revisit where we are today, starting with the ADP of running backs 20-40:

Table 1: Running Backs RB20-RB40 Based on ADP

But wait a minute - why did I go to RB20?  The reason now is to cover you, in case the ADP get shuffled again.  Your committee will certainly be better if you can land one or two backs with ADPs of 20-24, but that is a best case scenario.  Most likely you will have to grab two backs after RB24, but if any of the backs start to shuffle in the ADP list, you will now have a handy dandy chart (coming down below) to use as a reference.

So now we have 21 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 210 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Just like before, I am going to use their weekly projected fantasy points to combine all 210 pairs to figure out which are the best ones.   Table 2 contains the results for the top pairs:

Table 2: PPR Running Back #2 Committee Pairs

As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for RB2BC. In fact, I think that this is the best year ever to attempt RB2BC. Please keep in mind that the top of the chart is going to be skewed a little high this time around as we are still using RB20-24 rather than starting with RB25.  Still, there are 80 pairs here that are good for over 153.5 points, plus one player on his own (Joique Bell).  That means if you get the right two backs, you should be able to score at least 154 points from your RB2BC for this season.  But which ones?

I made something new this year, which is a RB2BC Draft Matrix chart.  Now, it might be a little tricky to read, so let me explain after I show you the chart:

Table 3: Running Back #2 Committee Draft Matrix

I know that there are pretty colors and all, but I completely understand if you are confused by Table 3.  Let's talk about the colors first.  Yellow squares are "unlikely pairs", as they use two backs at RB20-24, so that's counter of the RB2BC plan - but if you can them, go for it!  Second, the pairs of RB25 - RB40 backs are highlighted in blue (pairs projected to score 160 or more points), green (155-160) or purple (150-155).  

Now remember that you are targeting a running back to start your pair.  I would still go after Joique Bell (RB28) if you can get him in Round 5, but if not, the matrix is going to help you quite a bit.  First, look on the left side of Table 3 - that is the list of running backs in ADP order (RB20 - RB40).  Naturally, you are targeting a player in the RB20 to RB30 range, so after you get one of those guys, go to the top of the chart and find the column that matches this player.  The columns are numbered in the "best pair" order to give you the name of the second back you want to get.   

Let's do an example.  You get Joique Bell, RB28 in Round 5.  You want to get the best player to pair with him, so the RB24 column tells you that the best five pairs, in order, are Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams and Danny Woodhead.  Ideally you get Ridley or Miller to pair with Joique Bell.  Another example is that you get sniped on Bell and you have Ray Rice as your second back.  Which backs go best with him?  Rice is RB27, and moving to that column the Top 4 targets are Joique Bell (gone), Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Jackson.  Note that the color changed from blue for the first three pairs to green, which highlights that the first three duos are projected to give you 160 or more points, while the green pairs are projected to be just 155-160.  Clearly you want blue over green, and green over purple.

I hope this helps everyone on Draft Day.  Good luck this season.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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