Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with New England off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 4 of the 2015 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons ($427): No way he should be on the waiver wire. Three touchdowns and a ton of yards later, well, you will have to pay a lot to get him.
- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots ($277): I think he just scored again as I typed this. Forget the bye week, grab him now.
- Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals ($203): Probably rostered, but if not, you have to grab him. A.J. Green makes Dalton a QB2 with QB1 upside alone.
- Rishard Matthews, WR, Dolphins ($189): I’ll admit it, I was wrong here on Matthews. He is playing over 40 snaps a week for Miami, and in three weeks he has turned 23 targets into a 16-262-3 stat line. Miami looks to be needing receiving help and having to throw much more often than expected, and Matthews is the second option after Jarvis Landry. You have to respect all of that and get Matthews if you can.
- Karlos Williams, RB, Bills ($185): LeSean McCoy is not as good as he once was, and Williams is not as good as he can be. Grab the ascending talent here for a team that wants to run the ball.
- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills ($181): Is he still available in your league? Why? Grab him now.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns ($137): Look who scored again for Cleveland, which is not a sentence I am used to writing in the past several years. Benjamin is worth an add as he could be the WR1 for the Browns going forward.
- Rueben Randle, WR, Giants ($133): Careful here as Victor Cruz is due back, but if Randle remains the WR2 for New York, he can continue to have nights like last Thursday where he had over 100 yards and a score against Washington.
- Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles ($127): DeMarco Murray was out this week, and Ryan Mathews steps right up for 100 yards on the ground and a great catch for a touchdown. I see Mathews’ role increasing for sure.
- Derek Carr, QB, Raiders ($125): Two QB1 weeks in a row for Derek Carr, who has to love the arrival of Amani Cooper. Next up are the Bears. Yeah, I’d pick him up too.
- Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars ($124): Hurns is the WR2 for Jacksonville, and he racked up his third game of 60+ yards in Week 3. I like him again this week for cheap WR3 value against the Colts.
- Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals ($107): When Jones is healthy and catching the eye of Andy Dalton, he can really put up numbers. Jones found the end zone again in Week 3, cementing his spot as the WR2 for the Bengals. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Cincinnati, especially on a team that tends to favor the run instead of the pass, but Jones offers a ton of upside especially if A.J. Green were to miss any time.
- Eric Ebron, TE, Lions ($106, $123 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): The Lions need playmakers to step up for a team that is 0-3 and is reeling. Ebron is the future tight end star for Detroit, and the future is now. Time for him to get more targets and see if he can really deliver.
- Bilal Powell, RB, Jets ($105): Powell deserves touches even if Chris Ivory is healthy, but without Ivory against the Eagles, Powell had 75 total yards. Not great, but not bad and certainly a good handcuff.
- Victor Cruz, WR, Giants ($104): Psst – remember this guy? He should be back this week – grab him before the rest of your league realize it.
- Matt Jones, RB, Washington ($104): Matt Jones led Washington with 11 carries on Thursday against the Giants, but a fumble into the end zone left the door open for Alfred Morris to remain the lead back. Jones is more explosive though and has to be on a roster, especially if you have Morris.
- Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys ($103): While everyone is staring at Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden, snap up this PPR monster who had 10 catches and 100 yards in Week 3 out of a Cowboys’ backfield.
- Percy Harvin, WR, Bills ($102): We all know that Harvin has a ton of talent, but the questions are all about targets and opportunity, which always seems to be the issues with Harvin. Still, seven catches and 66 yards in Week 3 after a big catch in Week 1 makes you take note, and he is worth a pickup.
- Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans ($101): Great pickup time as no one will go after him with no game in Week 4. This kid is for real.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Chris Johnson, RB, Cardinals ($99): Andre Ellington is due back, but someone is going to get goal line chances. Johnson showed in Week 3 that he can punch it in if asked.
- Maxx Williams, TE, Ravens ($97, $113 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): If Crockett Gillmore is out, Williams is going to start this week for the Ravens. Baltimore loves tight ends and so does Joe Flacco, and the Ravens need someone besides Steve Smith to catch a few passes. Williams has a ton of upside.
- Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles ($88): Why can I see that Chip Kelly needs to get Sproles more touches but he cannot get it done? Finally Week 3 forced his hand and Sproles runs back another kick for a touchdown and contributes 36 more yards on 15 touches. Be careful with the spend here, but Sproles may see more touches on a regular basis.
- Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks ($81): Two out of three weeks with 6+ catches and 76 yards for Kearse. He has seen the field quite a bit for Seattle, and while he hasn’t found the end zone yet, I think he will soon. Great upside pickup here for when Seattle will have to throw more in a game.
- Devin Smith, WR, Jets ($71): Rookie Devin Smith saw his first action in Week 3 against Philadelphia. He only pulled in three of nine targets for 39 yards, but after Brandon Marshall no other receiver has as high a ceiling as Smith for the Jets.
- DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins ($69): Sneaky pickup of the WR3 here as he as explosive upside. Miami seems to have a very poor run game and has to throw more than expected, creating extra value if Parker elevates to a bigger role.
- Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks ($65): Is Marshawn Lynch a little more hurt than we think? Either way, if you want a solid handcuff with a young back with a ton of upside, grab Rawls for cheap now.
- Jonas Gray, RB, Dolphins ($64): Lamar Miller is on the outs right now and Gray had nine carries for 49 yards. Great speculative add here.
- Theo Riddick, RB, Lions ($62): The Lions are not very good right now, but they can see that Joique Bell is not what he used to be and they need playmakers. Riddick is a playmaker.
- Michael Vick, QB, Steelers ($61): Vick is a rent-a-QB for the next four weeks. You can grab him for the next month or so if you want a bye week cover, but do not expect much in Week 4 on a short week. He might be a better pickup next week.
- Charles Clay, TE, Bills ($61, $83 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Be careful chasing points here, as the Bills game planned Clay to show up his former team in Week 3. If you really want him, do not go overboard, but I think there are better options.
- Ryan Mallett, QB, Texans ($60): I am not a true believer just yet, but as long as the Texans let him throw nearly 40 times a week and the Texans play at a quick pace, you have to like his outlook.
- Owen Daniels, TE, Broncos ($60, $75 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Peyton Manning likes guys he can count on in tight spots. Owen Daniels knows Gary Kubiak’s offense and he will pull down the tough catches. He is no Julius Thomas, but he is worth a backup TE spot.
- Luke McCown, QB, Saints ($59): Another rental quarterback here, but he has some upside with good receivers and RBs that can catch out of the backfield. Just don’t go crazy here.
- Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets ($57): Why didn’t the Jets get him active sooner? Ryan Fitzpatrick found Kerley for six short catches (33 yards) and a score in Week 3. Not a flashy guy but he can be a solid PPR, possession receiver in New York.
- Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($55): Sims looks pretty quick with the ball in his hands, something Tampa Bay needs to do more often.
- Willie Snead, WR, Saints ($53): Not a flashy player, but he is getting targets and producing decent numbers as a secondary target for New Orleans.
- Chris Thompson, RB, Washington ($45): “The Lance Dunbar of Washington,” ladies and gentleman. The quick back caught eight balls and a touchdown against the Giants on Thursday. He showed good speed and can be a playmaker for Washington, and they need those. He is worth a flier pickup in case the targets and catches continue.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($45): Home run wide receiver almost exclusively, but Carolina lacks receiving options right now.
- Kenny Britt, WR, Rams ($44): Every time I pick up Kenny Britt, I feel like it is a waste as I am chasing those last points. Britt had a big Week 3 (7-102) but can he do it again?
- Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington ($43): Once again, Washington needs playmakers. After Pierre Garcon, Washingon has just TE Jordan Reed, so getting Crowder onto the field was a good move to see what he could do last Thursday. Crowder responded with six catches and 45 yards on six targets, so he is a decent addition as he has some top end speed.
- Brian Hartline, WR, Browns ($33): Not a sexy pick, but Hartline is back in that possession receiver role he loves so much, this time in Cleveland.
- Cecil Shorts, WR, Texans ($27): Houston is actually throwing a lot more than expected, but keep in mind that Arian Foster is due back soon. Until then, the Texans are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league and Shorts is getting production on his targets.
- Seth Roberts, WR, Raiders ($21): Five targets, 3-56-1 in Week 3 against Cleveland. That would not sound like much but Roberts also scored in Week 2 against Baltimore. If your waiver wire feels bare, take a shot here.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.