The other day I presented an article on how to rate and rank the handcuff options across the league. With the help of that method, I will walk through all of the 16 AFC Teams here, and recommend a few running back situations and names to target for your upcoming fantasy drafts this season.
As a reminder, here is the scoring system:
Backup RB ranking = Tailback Feature Score (1-5 points) + RB Involvement (1-5) + ADP (1-5) + Skill (1-5)
Here we go, with the teams ranked in order of Total Score:
Tennessee Titans
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 4
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 16
Tennessee has two options at tailback for the most part – rookie Bishop Sankey and veteran Shonn Greene. Sankey has the higher ADP and Greene is very cheap (ADP of 172, Round 15) and only Dexter McCluster would challenge him for touches. Greene has been a starter and can be a lead tailback, so he is definitely a solid backup RB to target late in your fantasy draft – provided he is still on the roster. Recent news had some veiled threats as to whether he will even make the team, which means whomever is the RB2 in Tennessee could be a solid sleeper this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Feature Tailback Score: 5
Running Game Score: 3
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 16
It was a tough call to give Pittsburgh a “5” rating on the Feature Tailback, but they do want to be a primarily one back team. The Steelers did add LeGarrette Blount, who has put up big numbers before while in New England. His ADP is rather inexpensive at 166 (Round 14), and the cupboard is really bare for feature back options after Blunt. Dri Archer is much more of a receiver then a power rusher, so if anything did happen to LeVeon Bell, Blount would become the clear starter. The only downside in Pittsburgh is the likelihood of throwing a little more than a feature back would like, but I would expect Blount to get a ton of goal line carries if he was in the lineup.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 3
ADP Score: 5
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 15
Jacksonville continues to be a team in transition, almost every year, but they seem to believe that they have their feature tailback in Toby Gerhart. The Jaguars actually want to run the ball quite a bit, it is just that they tend to fall behind too often to execute on that game plan. That’s only part of the problem here, as I am not certain what the coaches would do for a run game if Gerhart was hurt. Jordan Todman would likely be next in the lineup, but Denard Robinson and Storm Johnson would likely also get touches. I feel that, even though the signs say to go after a backup in Jacksonville, the backfield would go completely committee if Gerhart was sidelined and offer next to no value.
Baltimore Ravens
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 4
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 14
The Ravens are another tricky one to evaluate for 2014. Baltimore wants to run the ball, but the question lies with which back will be the starter – both in Week 1 and in later weeks. Ray Rice is facing a pending suspension, which is elevating the value of his already highly regarded understudy, Bernard Pierce. Pieces is already one of the first backup running backs going in drafts with an ADP just over 100, putting him as a RB likely to be selected by the end of Round 9. That’s a hefty price to pay for someone who may or may not be a starter at any given time this season. If it were not for his high pricetag, Pierce would be one of the most valuable picks for second string rushers.
Buffalo Bills
Feature Tailback Score: 3
Running Game Score: 5
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 14
Buffalo likes to use their running backs but the Bills are already a two-headed running back monster, so most of the value is evaporated for Fred Jackson with a very high ADP (97, early Round 9). Jackson is also getting very old (33) and could be either dominated by C.J. Spiller or passed on the depth chart by recent addition Bryce Brown. Brown is the better target with a much lower ADP (245) and is a nice gamble pick in the last few rounds.
New York Jets
Feature Tailback Score: 2
Running Game Score: 5
ADP Score: 3
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 14
The Jets are another team that loves to run, and they have two viable options in former Titan Chris Johnson and last year’s starter, Chris Ivory. Ivory is the likely second option this year, and his ADP (138, Round 12) reflects that. If Johnson does not perform (again) this year or gets hurt, Ivory is a solid later round flier pick.
Denver Broncos
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 3
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 14
The Broncos are clearly a pass-first team behind Peyton Manning, but there is plenty of value for the top running back – just ask Knowshon Moreno last season. Montee Ball should get the bulk of the workload in the Denver backfield, but if anything should happen to him, the Broncos are likely to split the backfield with C.J. Anderson (ADP 180) and Ronnie Hillman (ADP 262). Both backs are nice sleeper picks should Ball have fumbling problems or pass protection issues, but one of the two must step up to dominate the tailback spot to provide enough value to use them in your lineup.
Houston Texans
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 2
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 14
The Houston Texans used to love to run the ball, but Gary Kubiak is gone and now they have Arian Foster and not much else when it comes to a balanced offense. Andre Johnson is the only threat at wide receiver, and the quarterback situation for Houston is arguably the worst in the league. IT will be tough sledding for any Texans rusher this year, even if it is Foster. Should he get hurt, Andre Brown (a former starter for the Giants) offers a solid backup proposition, but his total value and upside is likely limited by a team that could struggle to produce both on the ground and as an overall offense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Feature Tailback Score: 5
Running Game Score: 2
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 14
Jamaal Charles is one of the first running backs going in all formats of fantasy drafts, which makes him a prime target for a handcuff with his backup, Knile Davis. Davis performed well whenever called upon, but he suffered a bad injury in the playoffs last year and there are some concerns about durability. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball but there is little question that the offense goes through Charles, and if Charles gets hurt, Davis will be the next man up to fill that role. Davis is a top handcuff target in all formats.
San Diego Chargers
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 5
ADP Score: 1
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 13
San Diego actually runs the ball a lot more than you might think, especially considering how well Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen performed last year. The problem in seeking a true handcuff or solid backup to draft here is the muddled situation if Ryan Mathews were to go down with an injury. Danny Woodhead is more of a receiver rusher, but he showed he can be the top running back in the Chargers’ offense if he is needed. His ADP reflects that though with him going in Round 7 (ADP 90), which definitely diminishes his sleeper appeal. Only Donald Brown (ADP 198) offers any value, but that would really require both Mathews and Woodhead to be out of the picture to make Brown a legitimate fantasy starter.
Cincinnati Bengals
Feature Tailback Score: 2
Running Game Score: 5
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 12
The Bengals are more of a committee running team, which is not too bad considering that they tend to run more than most teams. Cincinnati wants to use all of their backs, starting with Giovani Bernard in the offense. BenJarvus Green-Ellis will be pushed by rookie Jeremy Hill (ADP 115), which is pushing Green-Ellis (ADP 220) way down the draft list. If Bernard were injured, Hill would likely get the majority of the work, but he is unproven and has a solid veteran waiting to help and contribute. Neither back offers too much value unless Hill falls in drafts.
Oakland Raiders
Feature Tailback Score: 2
Running Game Score: 4
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 12
Welcome to a true RBBC team in Oakland. Two injury-plagued veterans in Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP 92) and Darren McFadden (ADP 112) are likely to split time for the Raiders. Oakland wants to run, but odds are that they will be trailing after halftime in most contests, which will limit any rushing attack. Both backs have the skill to be a feature rusher, but the situation does not look good for either to represent any real value.
Indianapolis Colts
Feature Tailback Score: 2
Running Game Score: 2
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 12
First, the good news – Ahmad Bradshaw is cheap this year (ADP 154) and he has been a feature running back in the past when he was with the New York Giants. Now the bad news, which is that the Colts would rather throw instead of run and Bradshaw is not the same back he used to be. Andrew Luck is also a solid running quarterback, so if Richardson is sidelined, Luck may steal all the goal line carries anyway. I would not target any Colt rusher as a sleeper.
Cleveland Browns
Feature Tailback Score: 2
Running Game Score: 4
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 11
Cleveland threw a ton last season, but that was more about game situation and the fact that they traded away Trent Richardson mid-year. As we head into 2014, Cleveland wants to run as much as possible, which also could include rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel. The planned lead runner is Ben Tate, who does has some injury history, so targeting his backup is not a bad plan at all. Cleveland also has a very underrated defense, so they could be running all game. Two rookies – Terrance West (ADP 102) and Isaiah Crowell (ADP 238) are competing for the second spot, with the early edge for West. If West is the second back, he offers little value, but if Crowell does well in the preseason, he offers great sleeper value. If the depth chart stays the same, I would consider either drafting Crowell in the last round or targeting him as a free agent if Tate went down with a bad injury.
New England Patriots
Feature Tailback Score: 2
Running Game Score: 4
ADP Score: 1
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 11
New England does like to run, especially with a lead, but they also like to use more than one running back in that normal plan. As a result, both of the top two rushers on the team (Shane Vereen , ADP 38 and Stevan Ridley, ADP 76) are going to be drafted by the end of Round 7 in most formats. That does not leave much value on the table, unless you consider James White (ADP 199) as a rookie with some sleeper appeal.
Miami Dolphins
Feature Tailback Score: 2
Running Game Score: 3
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 11
The story with Miami running backs is similar to that in Oakland – two backs in a committee. Lamar Miller (ADP 93) and Knowshon Moreno (ADP 100) cancel each other’s value out, leaving neither as a good option.
AFC Draft Targets (In order of priority):
- LeGarrette Blount (Round 14 or later)
- Knile Davis (Round 15 or later)
- Bryce Brown (Round 19 or later)
- C.J. Anderson (Round 16 or later)
- Andre Brown (Round 15 or later)
- Chris Ivory (Round 12 or later)
- James White (Round 17 or later)
- Isaiah Crowell (Round 20 or later)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.