The Gut Check No.474: Notable Yards After Contact Running Backs

Photo: USA Today Sports

The Yards After Contact statistic needs to be fixed. Yours truly explains why and how in a new article at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Still, if you study these players as much as the Gut Check, you get a feel for which running backs on 2018's Yards After Contact YAC leaders list deserve the eyeballs of fantasy players for the 2019 season.

With a hat-tip to colleague Dwain McFarland for providing the data, this week's Gut Check delves into YAC runners you should be considering for your fantasy drafts.

High-Volume Options

These 20 runners have proven that they can handle a starter's workload. Based on the film, some are better or worse after contact than the data indicates.

As Advertised

We don't need to discuss Elliott, Barkley, Gordon, Kamara, Johnson, or Conner. If you disagree about Conner, read McFarland's Unskew Your View.

Nick Chubb: He has the quickness and agility to transform defender angles of contact into collisions in the runner's favor, but he's also one of the most powerful runners in football. He can withstand collisions from box defenders and drag them for significant yardage without the help of his teammates. Combine these skills with breakaway speed, and Chubb earned an insane 86 percent of his yardage after contact. With Odell Beckham, Jr. arriving in Cleveland, that ever-present eighth defender in the box in 2018 will not be hanging around the line of scrimmage nearly as often in 2019. Chubb is poised for a Pro Bowl season in 2019 and if you can reconcile the fear of Kareem Hunt earning playing time after Week 10—and you should—Chubb is a no-brainer fantasy selection in 2019 drafts.

Derrick Henry: Not as versatile of a runner as Chubb or renowned studs like Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley, there's something to be valued about the fact that Henry is big enough to lean forward through contact and earn favorable chain-moving gains. The Titans also do a good enough job with Henry to get him big runways downhill where he excels at making one man miss to open the crease into the secondary. Although there's room to debate how good Henry's game-breaking run against the Titans actually was, there's no denying that defenders don't relish tackling him — especially as the game wears on. Despite the Titans lacking a consistent passing game, Henry was an efficient producer and the coaching staff wants to lean on him.

Pay attention to the Fine Print...

Todd Gurley: If the knee issue proves to be media- and fantasy-fueled hysteria for 2018, Gurley is capable of top-10 production. However, there's a new caveat to that projection (see below).

Personally, yours truly believes it is over-analysis of the situation. Darrell Henderson has been the factor compounding the hysteria because most cannot separate the addition of Henderson with Gurley's knees. In case you missed it, the Lions figured out the Rams offense in Week 13 and coaches with the skill and surrounding talent were able to limit the L.A.s scheme. Bill Belichick taught Sean McVay a valuable lesson about having greater depth with an offensive attack.

McVay took that to heart and added Henderson as another dimension to the L.A. attack. Even if Gurley were 100 percent, adding a back with Henderson's speed, vision, balance, and pass-catching ability was a wise move, because Henderson's skills can be used in multiple spots on the field just like Alvin Kamara paired with a Mark Ingram. Don't draft Gurley if you're betting against the hysteria and hoping to land a top-5 runner; draft Gurley if you can get him in at the value of a top-15 fantasy back with upside in the 6-10 range of production.

Sony Michel: The second-year runner has the conceptual and technical ability of a Pro-Bowl running back, but the knees of a mid-career veteran. He fits best in a gap scheme where he can rely most on his acceleration and small adjustments to set up blocks rather than overtaxing his legs with a significant number of zone runs.

Although he has the ability to produce along the lines of a top-12 fantasy runner, the addition of Damien Harris is a strong indication that New England will continue rotating its starters. If Michel has a top-12 fantasy season, it won't be the intent of the Patriots—think injuries to the depth chart or a highly efficient season with the touches given him. Think of Michel's true upside as that of a solid fantasy RB2

WHEN OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS...(These Backs will knock down the door)

Kareem Hunt: Although the Hunt Scare Factor for Chubb is in full effect this summer, Hunt is no more than an insurance policy this year in case Chubb gets hurt. Otherwise, the best-case scenario is that Hunt earns some touches at Duke Johnson Jr's expense—if the Browns can't trade Johnson by the midseason deadline—and Hunt takes a small bite into Chubb's workload as the Browns give its lead runner a little rest in preparation for a playoff run. Hunt is a worthwhile insurance policy, but a pricey one that could cost you victories during bye weeks that occur during the first nine weeks of the season because you could have had starting-caliber receivers and backs in your lineup.

Jordan Howard: The Eagles drafted a chronic fumbler in Miles Sanders who must prove that he can fix these woes before he earns significant playing time. Howard has no such issues and he's now on a team with a superior offensive line. His yards-per-carry average lacks the sizzle that fantasy players gravitate towards, but he earned nearly three-quarters of his 2018 yardage after contact. Regardless of how many of those yards came after friendly slaps versus meaningful tackle attempts, it doesn't take much study of Howard before you realize that he's an old-school power runner who demands defenders to bring the wood. If the concerns about Sanders become more prevalent this summer, Howard has all of the tools to deliver a top-10 fantasy season at the position.

Adrian Peterson: He's made of scrap iron and his quickness and stamina are still on par with runners a decade younger. He won't be handed the feature role but if Washington needs him to be the guy, don't let his age deter you from taking him. I've been telling you this for the past three years based on the film. Last year, the data coincided with the film just enough for the box score jockeys to become believers.

Chris Carson: Rashaad Penny is one of those heir-apparent candidates that a strong contingent of fantasy players are willing to invest at a price higher than his current value. Penny is a Kenyan Drake-like player in the sense that he entered the league as a terrific athlete best-suited for a gap scheme. Last year proved that he's still learning how to process the defense and make wise decisions when running zone or down-blocking plays. Fans and analysts got excited about Penny earning a handful of big gains on plays where he could use his athletic ability to dig his way out of decisions where he exhibited poor judgment. Carson doesn't offer that sizzle, but he's a strong yardage compiler who earns a hefty percentage of his work after contact. Like Howard and Peterson, you're not going to knock him down with a fly swatter. Expect a 1-2 punch in Seattle that leads to two fantasy starters performing the Seahawks' backfield, but fantasy players with either option will be left wanting more. If injury strikes one, the other will earn a top-12 season.

Slippery Power

Christian McCaffrey: An recurring myth that needs to die is the idea that smaller backs are not effective between the tackles. McCaffery will not push linebackers downfield in most head-on collisions and he won't drag defensive tackles wrapped around his waist for three- and four-yard jaunts, but he has a great understanding of run schemes and the vision to see the width and depth of the field. Combined with excellent footwork, McCaffrey sets up blocks as well as any runner in the league not named Frank Gore and he has the mental and physical quickness and precision to eliminate direct angles of contact. McCaffrey has been trained to avoid a lot of punishment but he is also training to handle the punishment one can expect from a load carrier. It's the best of both worlds.

Joe Mixon: Blessed with big-back size and strength, Mixon runs more like a scat back who eliminates direct angles of contact with his patience, burst, and speed. He'll excel in a wide-zone scheme that emphasizes his best traits.

Marlon Mack: In the 15 years that yours truly has been studying running back prospects for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Mack is the only runner who didn't earn the minimum score for winning direct collisions against defenders and still carved out a starting role for an NFL team. Working alongside Frank Gore was probably helpful, and Mack displayed improved with pressing a crease and using more precise footwork. However, the real magic behind Mack's success has been the Colts changing to a gap-heavy run scheme that maximizes Mack's athletic traits while minimizing his flaws as a processor of defensive information. In other words, Mack is tough to bring down when his line creates a big runway for him to reach full speed. Kenyan Drake and Tevin Coleman are similar backs. So was Darren McFadden. Mack's ceiling is strictly in the low-end range of fantasy RB1 territory, but the surrounding talent and scheme fit make him a compelling high-floor, medium-ceiling selection.

Doug Martin: No longer a cool pick, even as a late-round insurance policy, Martin has earned the Adrian Peterson Treatment from the fantasy community. The AP Treatment is slapping incorrect labels on a player who hasn't produced to his ability for multiple years because it's easier to completely write off the player than deliver nuanced analysis. Martin remains a talented runner with the ability to author top-12 fantasy production if he earns an extended opportunity. He's a quick, creative, and well-balanced runner who has been guilty of trying too hard to earn yards with risky decisions after his offensive line has failed him early on in games. This happened in Tampa Bay. In Oakland, Marshawn Lynch began the season earning 311 of his 376 yards (83 percent) after contact before injuries cost him the year. Martin is not the pile pusher Lynch was, but he has similar attributes at a lower level of power and greater quickness that will make him useful to fantasy players if Josh Jacobs falters.

Better Than Advertised

Lamar Miller: Capable of top-10 fantasy production on a team with a top offensive line, Miller's deceptive style of gliding past opponents also seems to translate to fantasy football where he glides past fantasy players who need a solid RB2 year after year but still opt for boom-bust options that usually fizzle. He lacks the volume upside of a top-12 fantasy runner in the Houston offense, but he's a big-play threat with a sturdier style than most realize. Miller has been one of those solid answers on draft day for a fantasy player confused about who to take in rounds 5-7.

Peyton Barber: If Ronald Jones plays to his potential, he is a superior physical talent to Barber. However, we could say this about 40-50 percent of the football players in the league sitting behind skilled starters. Barber is a skilled starter with excellent contact balance, terrific feet, and strong processing skills between the tackles. Jones is the type of back who can occasionally earn 40-60 yards on a play blocked to earn 8-10 yards but loses yards on plays designed to get a back 4-6 yards. Barber is the type of back who will get what the play is designed to earn and he'll often get positive yards even when the offensive line completely blows its assignments. We should learn after the second week of the preseason whether Jones has learned how to play the position as a professional. If we learn Jones still has a ways to go, Barber is one of those players who makes his line look better than it is—and his line play has been bad. If it actually improves to "decent," Barber could have a top-15 fantasy season at the position.

Worth your consideration

Want and need

Mark Ingram: Despite working behind an excellent offensive line, Ingram creates a lot of his own yards. At worst, he doesn't let minor forms of contact slow him down. Baltimore has a strong run-blocking unit and just as opposing defenses can become preoccupied with Alvin Kamara, Ingram will benefit even more with the threat of Lamar Jackson as a runner on every play. Look for this to be a perfect fit between Ingram and the Ravens. It wouldn't be surprising if you took Ingram and Gus Edwards' 2018 production and added it together to arrive at Ingram's 2019 output.

On The Rise

Dalvin Cook: Now a full-year healthy after rehabbing an ACL tear, Cook has the slippery power and big-play speed of a featured back. At worst, he'll be the most productive part of a 1-2 punch with rookie Alexander Mattison. The fact that he earned 65 percent of last year's yardage after some form of contact is a promising indicator that Cook can create. Considering that wealth of passing targets, Cook should see fewer stacked boxes than most runners in the league.

Kerryon Johnson: Consider Johnson's production in 2018 as something that exceeds expectation because Marvin Jones and Matt Stafford weren't healthy for much of last year—even if the medical reports state these injuries occurred later in the season. Johnson's YAC rate (61 percent) and strong yards-per-carry average behind a young and still-developing offensive line are promising indications of what's to come. C.J. Anderson has the skills to cut into Johnson's workload but he's an insurance policy who will otherwise give Johnson a breather after 2-3 series. If we knew back then what we know now, Johnson would have been one of the top three backs in rookie drafts. By the way, the RSP had him as its No.4 back barely below Derrius Guice and wrote, "[Johnson] is as capable as the first three ahead of him to be a rookie of the year candidate."

Royce Freeman: In 2018, Philip Lindsay exceeded expectations and Freeman suffered a high-ankle sprain during the season. The Broncos also used a gap-heavy scheme that played to Lindsay's strengths more than Freeman's. This year, the Broncos will switch back to a zone scheme that will feature outside runs that Lindsay should perform well and inside runs that suit Freeman's processing acumen, power, balance, and footwork. Despite not working behind a scheme that was the optimal fit for him, Freeman's ability to earn 80 percent of his 2018 rushing yardage after some form of contact with 130 carries is notable, laudable, and a sneaky-good indication of what's to come in 2019 as part of a 1-2 punch with Lindsay. If you've been thinking "either/or" with Lindsay-Freeman, stop right now and seriously consider "both" as fantasy-caliber starters.

Kenyan Drake: Chad O'Shea comes from New England and will be bringing a gap-heavy run scheme to the Dolphins. This is a much better fit for Drake, who moves quickly as an athlete, but processes multiple keys slowly for a zone runner. Although Drake co-led all 2018 runners in yards-after-contact average on runs where contact occurs before or at the line of scrimmage, he does it with quickness more than power. Giving Drake a bigger runway before he has a make any changes of direction is a good scheme fit. Look for greater volume and production efficiency from this promising running back—even with question marks surrounding the passing game.

Cheap Thrills

Latavius Murray: With an eighth-round ADP as of mid-July, Murray is cheap enough to consider as a bargain replacement to Mark Ingram and offering much of Ingram's top-15 upside at the position in this Saints' offense. He's also cheap enough in the eighth round that if he only earns fantasy RB3 production, you've still earned a return on investment. While unlikely to match Ingram's rankings of 15th,14th,10th, or 6th among runners during four of the past five years, Murray's tackle-breaking skill should earn him steady playing time as part of a 1-2 punch with Kamara. Look for Kamara to earn more touches than he did with Ingram as his backfield mate, but Murray shouldn't be relegated to straight-up backup status, either.

What you see is What you get

Tevin Coleman: Moving to San Francisco, Coleman reunites with Kyle Shanahan. Those expecting him to finally earn the main role in an offense will probably be disappointed. This is a lateral move for Coleman, professionally. Still, he will get to be the best version of what he was under Shanahan but still forced to work in tandem with another runner. Coleman has improved his zone-running skills during his professional development, but he's still a slow processor of defenses for a zone runner and doesn't maximize yardage on conceptually-demanding runs. Although the YAC data points may look like Coleman is an efficient runner, his YAC comes from bigger gains in space where he's tough to bring down once he earns a big runway for takeoff. Look for Matt Breida or Jerick McKinnon to earn a version of the Devonta Freeman role in San Francisco.

Jamaal Williams: A volume runner, Williams has good vision and a quick processor but lacks that extra step of acceleration to be a top-end starter. If Green Bay needs him to touch the ball 18-20 times, he'll deliver as a fantasy starter. Don't count on it happening unless injuries decimate the depth chart.

Gus Edwards: A straight-line bruiser with good burst, Edwards saw the Ravens' depth chart disintegrate last year. He'll need the same to happen again for another chance.

If Needed

Mike Davis: David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen should pace the Bears backfield, but if Montgomery or Cohen falters, Davis as the versatility to become a fantasy asset. He won't replace Cohen's big-play element but his receiving chops are excellent and he's a solid pass protector. Whether it's in space or between the tackles, Davis is both a pile-pusher and a shifty runner who can make that one big cut and tilt the axis of pursuit in another direction. Continue monitoring Davis as the Montgomery hype builds because Davis is one of those players available during the second half of drafts who helps teams piece together winning bye weeks.

Spencer Ware: If Marlon Mack gets hurt, Ware is the smartest and most versatile back on the depth chart. He's an after-contact monster whose production in this area likely dipped last year because he was returning from injury. Behind a young and talented Colts line, Ware could offer top-15 fantasy upside if Mack misses significant time. He'll likely offer bye-week value as a close-out runner if the Colts stay healthy and take early leads against lesser opponents.

Malcolm Brown: The Rams re-signed Brown because the team wants a back that can offer redundancy for the power element of Gurley's game in case Gurley cannot stay healthy. If Brown is needed, he'll be the primary backfield option and Darrell Henderson will remain in the same change-of-pace, Kamara-like role that's projected for him this summer.

Frank Gore: The old man created 71 percent of his yards after contact in 2018—better than Drake. It's also an indication that the average football fan doesn't understand the running game and the decision-making matrices that underpin why Gore earned his playing time ahead of Drake. If Gore is needed in Buffalo, and it's unlikely considering how many capable backs Buffalo now has on its depth chart, don't let his age influence those of you desperate for production as the season progresses. He'll help you through troubling times.

Alex Collins: A free agent whose fumbling cost him a starting job in Baltimore and a car accident and marijuana possession charge cost him a contract, Collins could resurface on a squad like the Chargers if Melvin Gordon holds out and the Chargers want a rugged player who understands how to find creases between the tackles. If you hear about a team working out Collins this summer, know that he may have to serve a short suspension but his skills are worth your consideration as a late pick or waiver-wire special in September or October.

Creative scat backs

Jalen Richard: The Raiders' runner has surprising power for his size and excellent acceleration. He's earned the scat back role in Oakland, which lacks anything beyond fantasy bye-week upside unless injuries force the Raiders to become more flexible with its offense.

Theo Riddick: Likely on his way out of Detroit, Riddick has the skills to deliver low-end fantasy RB2 production in PPR leagues if he finds a team that can leverage that ability. Atlanta would be a nice fit if Atlanta doesn't remain high on Ito Smith.

Chris Thompson: If he could stay healthy, he'd be the best scat back in football—no apologies to James White offered at all here.

Jaylen Samuel: Many fantasy players are going wild over Samuel's small window of strong production last year. Samuel is an NFL-caliber running back. James Conner is an NFL-caliber feature back. You'll learn the difference this year, if you didn't notice it last.