Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
It's Almost Time!
The new NFL league year begins Wednesday, March 12, and with it, the official start of 2025's free agency marketplace. But there's more to it than that, thanks to the league's legal tampering period.
That's right, from noon ET on Monday until 3:59:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday, clubs can contact and negotiate with the agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents upon expiration of their 2024 player contracts at 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
The next few days will be busy, and Footballguys will provide near real-time fantasy reactions to every relevant move. Be sure to check in often to stay on top of all the latest.
This week's Fantasy Notebook will highlight a few free-agent-related items of interest heading into the week, but I don't want to dig too deep into fluid situations here. That being the case, we'll start this edition out by returning to an ongoing project on . . .
The Yin and Yang of Fantasy Value
Every year, we get unexpected outcomes. For better. And worse. Those surprising outcomes often lead to interesting prices in this year's drafts. Analyzing these unexpected outcomes can help us understand where value can be found.
The goal is simple: Finding value in drafts is your path to fantasy success.
We do this by examining some examples of players who fell short of expectations in 2024 and those who exceeded them, assessing their potential values this year. In case you haven't been following along, here's a quick rundown of the duos we've covered:
- Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry (available here)
- Tyreek Hill and Chuba Hubbard (available here)
- Anthony Richardson and Bo Nix (available here)
- Breece Hall and Chase Brown (available here)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. and Brian Thomas Jr. (available here)
In addition to providing specific recommendations on the players' values, these evaluations can also help you with archetypical situations. It's part of an offseason-long journey to gain an edge on your competition. The goal is to set baselines we can track as circumstances evolve.
This week, I'll look at a pair of running backs with disparate and surprising 2023 outcomes: Ken Walker III and Bucky Irving.
Let's dive in . . .
Walker Ready To Run Back Up The Ranks?
Note: Shortly after this article was published Friday afternoon, the Seahawks traded quarterback Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders. You'll find a complete breakdown of that trade available here.
As SI.com's Connor Benintendi noted, "By this time in his career, it was expected Ken Walker III would have emerged as a perennial 1,000-yard rusher. Instead, due to injury, his only season with that kind of production was his rookie year."
Statistically, 2024 was Walker's worst NFL season.
Limited to 11 games, Walker -- placed on injured reserve Dec. 26 -- struggled behind a shaky Seahawks offensive line.
Still, head coach Mike Macdonald admired Walker's resilience.
"I thought Ken played really good football for us," Macdonald said in January. "He battled injuries all year, which was frustrating for him, and we always want him out there as much as possible."
Walker's lone 100-yard rushing game came in Week 1 vs. Denver. He topped 100 scrimmage yards just three times.
He finished with 573 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 153 carries, plus a career-high 46 catches (53 targets) for 299 yards and a score.
Availability was an issue. When Walker wasn't healthy, backup Zach Charbonnet stepped up, rushing 121 times for 510 yards and eight TDs. Charbonnet also outgained Walker in receiving yards (308) and averaged a half-yard more per carry.
The rookie became a key red-zone threat, scoring more touchdowns in fewer carries and, at times, looking like a better fit for then-offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's one-cut, downhill scheme.
That may not matter much going forward because . . .
Change Is Coming
Grubb was fired after the season, mainly because Seattle didn't run the ball enough for Macdonald's liking. The Seahawks finished 28th in rushing (95.7 YPG).
In January, they hired former Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
Concerns exist. Kubiak's past offenses ranked outside the top 10 in designed rush rate. His 2021 Vikings were 11th, his 2024 Saints 14th, and his six-game stint calling plays for Denver in 2022 saw them finish 20th.
As ESPN's Brady Henderson noted, Seattle is betting on Kubiak's reputation and alignment with Macdonald more than his past results.
Still, SI's Russell Baxter points out Kubiak helped revive Alvin Kamara, who ran for a career-high 950 yards in 2024. Kamara's 1,493 yards from scrimmage were his best since 2020.
And Kubiak is thrilled with Walker's ability in the zone run.
#Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak on his outside zone scheme, throwing the ball to running backs, and Ken Walker III:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 11, 2025
“Looking forward to him in this scheme, and we’re gonna ask a lot out of him.”
Wheels all the way up for K9, pants all the way off for K9 fantasy managers pic.twitter.com/JGgRqfkHJW
"Our identity is going to be a running team," Kubiak said. "We're going to get the ball to our best runners, and that's what [Walker] is."
SBNation's Alexandre Castro sees promise in Walker's 46 catches last year -- far from Kamara's 70, but proof Walker can contribute as a receiver.
While a Walker-friendlier scheme is coming . . .
There Were Other Problems
Walker's tendency to chase big plays hurt him, but Seattle's offensive line was the bigger issue. Footballguy Matt Bitonti ranked it 30th in 2024.
Even as Seattle's best pure runner, Walker's style wasn't helped by poor blocking.
Among 85 RBs with 50-plus carries, Walker ranked 81st in tackle-for-loss percentage (13.1 percent), over 2 percent worse than in 2023. He did, however, rank 11th in yards after contact (2.92).
If Seattle wants to maximize Walker in his contract year, they must invest in the O-line . . .
Emerging Issues
In addition to the Seahawks shipping Smith off, there is more turmoil here.
DK Metcalf requested a trade on Wednesday, and Seattle agreed to explore options. His request came less than an hour after the Seahawks released fellow wideout Tyler Lockett after 10 seasons.
Note: Metcalf was traded to the Steelers Sunday evening.
Even with Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout (100 catches, 1,130 yards, six TDs), Metcalf's possible departure could lead to a heavier reliance on the ground game.
As for what's next at quarterback, Seattle Time staffer Bob Condotta reports the team has focused its attention on free-agent to-be Sam Darnold. The veteran quarterback spent his 2023 season with the 49ers, where Kubiak served as the offensive passing game specialist . . .
How Should We Proceed?
Due in large part to missing six games, Walker finished the 2024 season as RB27, but his 16.5-point-per-game average ranked 12th in the league.
The upside is there. And the price is right.
Behind an excellent offensive line, a healthy Walker could be among the top running backs in the NFL. As things stand now, the change in offense and the three-down skillset Walker demonstrated last year could make him a league winner. If Charbonnet severely eats into Walker's workload, he could finish in the RB24-30 range.
Walker opened as RB23 on the Footballguys 2025 Projections with Charbonnet at RB27.
Their Average Draft Positions (ADP) in early Underdog best-balls drafts are RB19 for Walker and RB32 for Charbonnet, with fifth and eighth-round prices, respectively.
Based on the change in scheme, the anticipated role, and Kubiak's usage of Kamara, I love Walker at this price . . .
The Flip Side
For every player who falls short, there are players who exceed expectations or outperform their ADP. Let's look at a great example of a player who . . .
Buck(y)ed The Trend And Beat Expectations
After a standout rookie season in Tampa Bay, how high should Bucky Irving be on the fantasy radar?
Drafted No. 125 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, the former Oregon star became one of the biggest steals of his class.
Irving began the season as Tampa Bay's No. 2 back behind Rachaad White but took over as the starter by Week 10. A dual threat, he caught 47 passes for 392 yards.
By season's end, he led the Bucs in rushing with 1,122 yards and eight TDs, topping all rookies, including Offensive Rookie of the Year winner Jayden Daniels.
Can he repeat those numbers?
It Won't Be Easy
According to JoeBucsFan.com, Irving won't be a one-man rushing attack. And head coach Todd Bowles hinted at a committee approach at the Combine.
"I still think it's a two-headed attack in this league nowadays," Bowles said. "One person really doesn't get all the carries."
While he called Irving a "bell cow," Bowles immediately clarified:
"I thought Bucky came along a great deal, and we haven't had a real running game here in six years. With Bucky and Rachaad, we had a one-two punch, and they were very effective."
That focus on the one-two punch meant it took nearly the entire season for Tampa Bay to realize Irving should be their go-to back . . .
And The Results Were Fantastic
Despite averaging 5.4 yards per carry, Irving had more than 15 carries in a game only once before Dec. 22 at Dallas. He started only three games, including the final two of the regular season.
In Week 17, he ran for 113 yards on 20 carries in a 48-14 win over Carolina. The following week, he had 89 yards and a TD on 19 carries, helping clinch the NFC South against New Orleans.
His Week 13 game vs. Carolina was another turning point. Irving was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after rushing for 152 yards and a touchdown despite missing part of the game with a hip injury.
He also finished the week as RB1 in fantasy with 27.5 points.
But his role remained inconsistent, and the issue is clear . . .
There's A Philosophical Roadblock
With Liam Coen gone to Jacksonville, new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard takes over. As Tampa Bay's passing game coordinator, he emphasized third-down efficiency but also values the run.
However, another voice matters: RBs coach Skip Peete, who has a long history of rotating his backs.
At the season's start, Peete questioned whether Irving was conditioned for a heavier workload.
"Being the starter is nothing," Peete said. "It means you take the first play. He had to get into condition for the role. As the season went on, he got more involved."
Peete compared Irving to Tony Pollard, whom he coached in Dallas:
"Pollard was electric under 40 plays. Over that, he became average. Bucky might be the same. Can he build endurance? I think so."
Irving has something to prove this summer.
As Tampa Bay Times staffer Rick Stroud noted, true bell-cow RBs are rare. Outside Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, most teams split carries. That's Peete's philosophy, too.
Injuries are always a risk, and Peete believes teams must have three backs ready.
"I never just played one guy except in Chicago (Matt Forte) and L.A. (Todd Gurley)," Peete said. "Everywhere else, I used multiple backs."
Is it time for Peete and the Bucs to view Irving more like Forte and Gurley? Perhaps it is . . .
The Other Options
White, who enters the final year of his rookie deal (set to earn $1.28 million), is the best pass protector and receiver among Bucs running backs, earning him a key role.
Still, the Bucs played Irving and White together at times.
Then there's Sean Tucker, entering his third season.
Tucker broke out replacing an injured White in Week 6 vs. New Orleans, earning NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. He totaled 192 scrimmage yards and two TDs, including 136 yards on 14 carries (9.7 yards per carry) en route to finishing as RB1 for the week.
"They're all deserving," Grizzard said. "Bucky stepped in and set the tone. Rachaad did a great job as a three-down back. We know he'll build on that."
Meanwhile, NBC Sports' Matthew Berry shared insights from Indy: A team source told him Tucker has RB1 potential. Reading between the lines, Berry wrote: "They love Irving and Tucker but aren't as high on White. I expect Tucker to overtake White for RB2 sooner than later."
Stroud pointed out that after his Week 6 breakout, the former undrafted free agent had just 34 carries over the final 12 games. Tucker deserves more chances.
But even so, Stroud is convinced that in 2025, the backfield will revolve around Irving . . .
Taking A Bullish Stance
Despite limited workloads and playing time, Irving finished 2024 as the RB14. His per-game average of 14.5 points per game, which ranked 20th, is indicative of that limited role.
Whatever the case, based on everything laid out above, Irving's RB7 ranking on the initial Footballguys 2025 Projections is aggressive.
So I asked the man responsible for it, Footballguy Jason Wood, how he views the situation.
Wood, who acknowledges it's early and that the projections remain fluid, points to Irving's increasingly larger role as the season went on -- specifically that the rookie was handling better than 60 percent of the running back snaps down the stretch.
"My initial expectation is the new OC will focus on team strengths," Wood added, "including Irving. I also expect most teams to re-embrace having a lead back handle a heavier share given last year's success of the Ravens, Eagles, Packers, and others."
It's a fair point.
My own Footballguys ranking for Irving is RB10. That aligns directly with his current Underdog ADP, which has him being drafted at the two/three turn in early drafts.
Beyond that, White's RB42 ADP isn't cost prohibitive, while Tucker's RB82 ADP and 19th-round price tag make him an ideal free-square play in best ball . . .
Who's The Better Value?
At ADP, Walker looks like a high-upside buy with RB1 potential if things break right. Irving, while talented, faces more uncertainty in workload. If you’re drafting today, Walker is the better value play . . .
Jags Start A Rebuild . . . And The Texans Appreciate That
While initial reports last week suggested wide receiver Christian Kirk would be released in a cost-cutting move when the new league year begins Wednesday, the Jaguars instead found a trade partner within their division: Kirk was dealt to the Houston Texans for a seventh-round pick.
Entering the final year of his four-year, $72 million deal, Kirk set career highs in 2022 with 84 catches, 1,108 yards, and eight TDs. However, he missed 14 games over the past two seasons due to an abdominal injury and broken collarbone, finishing with 84 catches, 1,166 yards, and four TDs in 20 games.
Also on Thursday, the Jaguars released tight end Evan Engram and receiver/return man Devin Duvernay for cap relief.
Engram, who had a record-breaking 2023, struggled with injuries in 2024, managing 47 catches, 365 yards, and one TD. Cutting him frees $6 million in cap space.
While acknowledging the financial relief, SI.com's John Shipley argues these were mostly football-driven decisions.
"Neither guy makes a ton of sense for (new head coach Liam) Coen's offense based on what we've seen from it before," Shipley explained . . .
Who Benefits?
At wideout, the prime beneficiary remains uncertain.
Gabe Davis, a pricey free-agent addition last year, remains on the roster. Still, Footballguy Sigmund Bloom reminds us that 2023 sixth-rounder Parker Washington played a big role after Kirk's collarbone injury last year. The Jaguars could draft a receiver early next month or bring in competition for Washington.
At tight end, Brenton Strange proved capable when Engram was out, recording 40 catches, 411 yards, and three TDs.
Speaking at the NFL Combine, new Jaguars GM James Gladstone said, "Really excited about [Strange's] ascension in Year 2 . . . He'll have a bigger role in the offense moving forward."
Could he be a cheap, overlooked potential league-winner at a position of scarcity?
Quick. Everybody find your Brenton Strange receipts. https://t.co/XjRholotVZ
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) March 7, 2025
Whatever the case, Brian Thomas Jr.. remains a Fantasy Nation favorite, continuing to go in Round 1 of early best-ball drafts on Underdog . . .
Meanwhile, In Houston
As NFL.com put it, "Help is on the way for C.J. Stroud." Texans HC DeMeco Ryans hinted at adding WR depth during the NFL Combine, calling it an "area of emphasis."
To close out 2024, Houston had only Nico Collins available in the playoffs, with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out due to serious knee injuries.
"It hurt us down the stretch," Ryans said. "You need those playmakers, especially at WR, to move the football and score points."
Diggs is a free agent, and Dell's 2025 status is in doubt after suffering a Week 16 ACL tear against Kansas City. Dell underwent a second surgery Wednesday to repair the ligament after earlier surgery on other torn ligaments.
With Collins going in Round 1 of Underdog best-ball drafts (WR5 overall), taking a late-round flyer on Kirk as a WR4 or WR5 -- simply due to a change of scenery -- is a reasonable approach.
This And That: Receivers Gone Wild Edition
Jets Jettison Adams, Lazard Likely Out, Too
Three weeks after parting with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the New York Jets released his favorite wide receiver, Davante Adams, on Tuesday.
The Jets also granted wide receiver Allen Lazard -- another Rodgers favorite -- permission to seek a trade before the start of the league year on Wednesday, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter. In all likelihood, he, too, will end up being released.
As ESPN.com's Rich Cimini wrote, "The Jets are undoing what they did two years ago when they went all-in for Rodgers by acquiring some of his former Green Bay Packers teammates."
The Jets were 2-4 when they traded for Adams, a desperation move to rekindle the Rodgers-Adams magic from their years with the Packers. As it turned out, they went 3-8 with Adams.
After a slow start, Adams came on strong toward the end of the season and finished with 67 catches, 854 yards, and seven touchdowns in 11 games for the Jets. Combined with his Las Vegas production, he went over 1,000 yards for the fifth straight year. His signature performance was a nine-catch, 198-yard performance with the Jets in a win over the Jaguars.
Adams' departure leaves Garrett Wilson, a three-time, 1,000-yard receiver, as the clear-cut No. 1. He had that distinction at the start of last season, but the roles became blurred when Adams arrived.
Presuming Lazard leaves, the Jets are very thin at receiver. Aside from Wilson, their top holdovers are Xavier Gipson (27 career receptions) and Malachi Corley (three).
By the way, even with their quarterback up in the air, Wilson's 2025 Footballguys Projection is WR11, which isn't far off his WR15 ADP . . .
No Reprieve For Kupp
Rams receiver Cooper Kupp has been on the trade block since January when he announced that Los Angeles would not retain him for 2025.
However, to this point, the club has not agreed to deal with the receiver, who has been with the Rams since the franchise selected him in the third round of the 2017 draft.
On Monday, head coach Sean McVay did not close the door on a potential Kupp return.
"I would never speak in absolutes," McVay said, via Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times, when asked if Kupp wouldn't be back if no trade partner is found.
Despite McVay's reluctance to take a stand, general manager Les Snead was more definitive Wednesday.
"There's a scenario, but when you get into probabilities, that would be the least likely," Snead said when asked during his news conference if there was a situation in which Kupp might return. "I don't want to tell you no today, and then next week, he's a Ram. You see what I mean? But you see what we're trying to do. We're working to try to find a partner and a next chapter for Cooper and ourselves."
Kupp is due a $7.5 million roster bonus on the fifth day of the new league year, which begins March 12.
Snead wouldn't speak in absolutes when asked if he'd have a resolution by then, but he acknowledged it'd be a date to aim for.
"If there is a deadline in this situation, that roster date does weigh a good bit in the algorithm of the formula that we're working through," he said . . .
Godwin Staying Put?
Chris Godwin's contract with the Buccaneers was set to void earlier this month, but the wideout agreed to move that date to the day before the start of the new league year to give him and the team more time to work on a contract extension.
General manager Jason Licht told reporters last Tuesday that Godwin "means the world" to the Buccaneers. Head coach Todd Bowles said he hopes the team can re-sign Godwin and that the Bucs "want him back here in every way possible."
Licht said that the team has to "weigh through some variables" related to the season-ending ankle injury Godwin suffered in Week 7 last year but noted that the wideout bounced back from a torn ACL he suffered in 2021 and added that he wouldn't bet against Godwin making a full recovery.
With Tee Higgins drawing the Bengals' franchise tag, Godwin will be the top receiver available if he makes it to free agency . . .
The Watch List
Of course, as noted above, Metcalf will be of interest as a trade candidate. But among the wideouts available to sign outright, Godwin, Adams, Diggs, Keenan Allen, and Amari Cooper lead the way.
So, what teams will be pursuing this narrow band of high-end talent?
Buffalo: With Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins hitting free agency, Buffalo needs an outside separator to complement slot star Khalil Shakir. They remain optimistic about 2024 second-rounder Keon Coleman but still seek a true No. 1 receiver a full year after trading Diggs.
Green Bay: GM Brian Gutekunst confirmed Christian Watson (ACL) will miss the 2025 opener. While the team hopes Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks step up, running back Josh Jacobs recently told reporters the Packers need "a guy that's proven to be a [No. 1 receiver] already." He's not wrong.
LA Chargers: Ladd McConkey thrived in the slot as a rookie, and Quentin Johnson showed improvement, but a reliable outside threat would further boost Justin Herbert.
LA Rams: They re-signed Tutu Atwell, but with Matthew Stafford's future settled, replacing Kupp is now a priority.
New England: The Patriots must upgrade here this offseason. As the team's official website suggested, following a similar model as teams that have successfully built around young quarterbacks, it's time to get Drake Maye his alpha. Unfortunately, that's easier said than done due to what's available on the free-agent market.
Pittsburgh: George Pickens is their top receiver, but depth is lacking. The Steelers must also resolve their QB situation while adding downfield weapons.
Tennessee: With Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine hitting free agency, the Titans need young talent to pair with Calvin Ridley.
Again, we'll be covering all of it as it happens in coming days; don't be a stranger . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of stories. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good: Coaching Matters
The NFL Players Association's survey of players graded teams from A to F on various issues, including their head coaches.
Six head coaches -- Washington's Dan Quinn, Atlanta's Raheem Morris, Minnesota's Kevin O'Connell, Kansas City's Andy Reid, Detroit's Dan Campbell, and Miami's Mike McDaniel -- got A+ grades from their players.
Nine more head coaches got A grades, and five got an A-. Four head coaches got a B+, four got a B, and one a B-.
The lowest grade was C. It went to Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski and two coaches who have since been fired, Jacksonville's Doug Pederson and Chicago's Matt Eberflus.
While Morris, McDaniels, and their respective teams have plenty of work to do, Quinn, Campbell, O'Connell, and Reid -- and for fantasy purposes, the high-end offenses their clubs field -- are prime examples of the importance of good coaching . . .
The Bad: Attention Deficit
Following up on the Seahawks note above . . . Wednesday was supposed to be Tyler Lockett Day in Seattle. Instead, as Profootballtalk.com framed it, it turned into "DK Metcalf Could Be Traded Day."
And the Seahawks weren't thrilled about it.
The organization had planned for Wednesday to be a celebration of Lockett's 10-year run in Seattle.
"Probably not intentional, but very disappointed in the timing," general manager John Schneider said. "We wanted this to be a very special day. We wanted it to be Tyler Lockett day . . . I felt bad for Tyler. The TV's all about DK instead of Tyler Lockett. It kind of correlates with his whole career. This guy is one of the most underrated wide receivers in NFL history."
To that point, in his rookie year of 2015, Lockett was a Pro Bowler and a first-team All-Pro -- as a returner. He later had four straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons and finished his run in Seattle with 661 catches for 8,594 yards and 61 touchdowns.
As PFT noted: "Lockett didn't try to bring attention to himself. He went about his job quietly and consistently. Folks like that don't get the notice they deserve because there's always someone flapping their arms and tooting their own horn to take the focus away from the people who become the backbone of an organization.
"Like Lockett was in Seattle for a decade."
Too bad he didn't get his day in the sun . . .
The Ugly: Watson Keeps On Costing
As PFT's Mike Florio suggested this week, when it comes to "arguably the single-worst transaction in NFL history," the Browns keep kicking the salary cap can down the road.
This after Deshaun Watson's latest restructuring leaves the team facing massive cap charges in future years.
The five-year, fully-guaranteed contract pays out $230 million. Through 2025, Watson will have been paid $184 million. But roughly half of that amount -- $94.6 million -- will have hit the cap. That leaves $135.4 million to be charged in 2026 and beyond.
In the end, he'll get the full $230 million, the Browns eventually will take $230 million in cap charges and the Browns will continue to manage the ugly repercussions of a horrible decision . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. While many consider this "the NFL offseason," we're still grinding at Footballguys to help you gain an edge on your leaguemates. Check back often -- especially with free agency kicking off this week -- to take advantage of our ongoing content.
That includes the Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide, our 2025 Player Projections, and Draft Rankings.
It's never too early to start, so head back next week for another Fantasy Notebook.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can catch Harris' "On The Hotseat" every Tuesday on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.
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