6 Win Total Predictions for the 2024 Season

Photo: USA Today Sports

July is a quiet time of year for the NFL. Training camp is around the corner, but the offseason moves are in the rearview mirror while optimism reigns supreme. Let's look at three teams who will underachieve and three who will overachieve for the 2024 season based on the Win/Loss totals set by Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Strength of schedule and rest are important factors in predicting season-long success, and Sharp Football Analysis is a good resource for this data. They indicated that 11 of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest schedules in 2023, based on the Vegas lines, finished the season with winning records. Only 5 of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest schedules finished with a winning record. Their website also values rest differential for teams. Over the last three seasons, teams with two or more extra rest days won 58.3% of the time. 

Denver: 5.5 Wins = Under

2023 record = 8-9

• The Broncos will be one of the least talented teams in the NFL in 2024. Denver made some big moves in free agency for the 2023 season by signing Zach Allen and Mike McGlinchey. But it appears they're pushing the reset button on this franchise after releasing Russell Wilson, trading away Jerry Jeudy, and letting Lloyd Cushenberry walk in free agency.
• Rookie QBs typically struggle in the NFL without a great supporting cast and Bo Nix will not be an exception. Denver's offensive line is the strength of the team. However, Nix will have a below-average supporting cast around him. The Broncos' defense will struggle to keep the games close and the fear is Nix will have to play hero too often, which is outside his conservative nature.
• Based on Vegas' forecasted Win totals, the Broncos have the 8th most difficult schedule. Denver is currently favored in only two games this season.
• Denver will have a -17 net rest day scheduling disadvantage versus their opponents. Meaning they'll have less time to prepare for opponents and to get healthy.
• The Broncos have a negated bye week. The one time teams should have a scheduling benefit against their opponent is their bye week. However, Denver and their next opponent share a bye week in 2024, eliminating any advantage. 

Chicago: 8.5 Wins = Over

2023 record = 7-10

• The Bears have the 3rd easiest strength of schedule in 2024. Chicago is currently favored in ten games this season. Furthermore, Chicago has a +5 net rest day schedule advantage versus opponents.
• Caleb Williams is walking into the best situation for a 1st overall pick ever. D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze combine for one of the best wide receiver trios in the NFL. The TE and RB units have good receiving threats to provide safety blankets for a rookie QB.
• Since 2011, 15 quarterbacks have been drafted first or second overall. Their NFL team's average win increase the following season is 2.6. Chicago won 7 games in 2023, which means 7+2.6 = 9.6 wins > 8.5 projected win total.
• The Ringer recently had a podcast predicting the top 10 defenses for 2024. Both podcast hosts had Chicago among the top 7 defenses in the NFL. In 2023, the Bears' defense led the NFL in run defense and was tied for the lead in interceptions. Over the last eight games of the 2023 season, Chicago was a top 5 defense led by newly acquired Montez Sweat.
• Rookie Tory Taylor is a significant upgrade at punter. In 2023, Chicago's punter Trenton Gill averaged 38 net yards per punt, dead last in the NFL. The 2022 season wasn't much better for Gill, as he finished 29th in the NFL in net yards per punt. Taylor has averaged almost three more net yards per punt than Gill over the last four years combined. Last season, Taylor averaged 44.4 net yards per punt, which would've finished 2nd in the NFL. Field position helps win games, and Taylor could flip Chicago's punting situation from one of the worst to one of the best in 2024.