July is a quiet time of year for the NFL. Training camp is around the corner, but the offseason moves are in the rearview mirror while optimism reigns supreme. Let's look at three teams who will underachieve and three who will overachieve for the 2024 season based on the Win/Loss totals set by Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Strength of schedule and rest are important factors in predicting season-long success, and Sharp Football Analysis is a good resource for this data. They indicated that 11 of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest schedules in 2023, based on the Vegas lines, finished the season with winning records. Only 5 of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest schedules finished with a winning record. Their website also values rest differential for teams. Over the last three seasons, teams with two or more extra rest days won 58.3% of the time. 

Denver: 5.5 Wins = Under

2023 record = 8-9

• The Broncos will be one of the least talented teams in the NFL in 2024. Denver made some big moves in free agency for the 2023 season by signing Zach Allen and Mike McGlinchey. But it appears they're pushing the reset button on this franchise after releasing Russell Wilson, trading away Jerry Jeudy, and letting Lloyd Cushenberry walk in free agency.
• Rookie QBs typically struggle in the NFL without a great supporting cast and Bo Nix will not be an exception. Denver's offensive line is the strength of the team. However, Nix will have a below-average supporting cast around him. The Broncos' defense will struggle to keep the games close and the fear is Nix will have to play hero too often, which is outside his conservative nature.
• Based on Vegas' forecasted Win totals, the Broncos have the 8th most difficult schedule. Denver is currently favored in only two games this season.
• Denver will have a -17 net rest day scheduling disadvantage versus their opponents. Meaning they'll have less time to prepare for opponents and to get healthy.
• The Broncos have a negated bye week. The one time teams should have a scheduling benefit against their opponent is their bye week. However, Denver and their next opponent share a bye week in 2024, eliminating any advantage. 

Chicago: 8.5 Wins = Over

2023 record = 7-10

• The Bears have the 3rd easiest strength of schedule in 2024. Chicago is currently favored in ten games this season. Furthermore, Chicago has a +5 net rest day schedule advantage versus opponents.
• Caleb Williams is walking into the best situation for a 1st overall pick ever. D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze combine for one of the best wide receiver trios in the NFL. The TE and RB units have good receiving threats to provide safety blankets for a rookie QB.
• Since 2011, 15 quarterbacks have been drafted first or second overall. Their NFL team's average win increase the following season is 2.6. Chicago won 7 games in 2023, which means 7+2.6 = 9.6 wins > 8.5 projected win total.
• The Ringer recently had a podcast predicting the top 10 defenses for 2024. Both podcast hosts had Chicago among the top 7 defenses in the NFL. In 2023, the Bears' defense led the NFL in run defense and was tied for the lead in interceptions. Over the last eight games of the 2023 season, Chicago was a top 5 defense led by newly acquired Montez Sweat.
• Rookie Tory Taylor is a significant upgrade at punter. In 2023, Chicago's punter Trenton Gill averaged 38 net yards per punt, dead last in the NFL. The 2022 season wasn't much better for Gill, as he finished 29th in the NFL in net yards per punt. Taylor has averaged almost three more net yards per punt than Gill over the last four years combined. Last season, Taylor averaged 44.4 net yards per punt, which would've finished 2nd in the NFL. Field position helps win games, and Taylor could flip Chicago's punting situation from one of the worst to one of the best in 2024.

NY Giants: 6.5 Wins = Under

2023 record = 6-11

• The Giants' recent history indicates they won't exceed six wins in 2024. They have won seven or more games only once in the last seven seasons and only two times in the last ten seasons.
• The Giants are one of the least talented teams in the NFL. Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney signed elsewhere in free agency, and Darren Waller retired. Top 10 NFL Draft picks Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal have been disappointing. Other recent draft picks Deonte Banks, John Michael Schmitz, and Azeez Ojulari haven't lived up to their expectations as well.
• New York is playing the 20th-ranked strength of schedule and has a 0 net day rest advantage over opponents. No favors were thrown the Giants' way via schedule this year.
• Daniel Jones not only needs to stay healthy in 2024, but he will need to carry the offense. Jones is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in week 9 of the 2023 season, which makes training camp and the start of the NFL season a question mark. But let's not also forget Jones injured his neck during the 2023 season and he suffered a season-ending neck injury in 2021. Jones staying healthy in 2024 will be difficult behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Giants' skill position group is a bottom-five unit in the NFL. Jones will need to carry more of the burden for an offense to be successful than most quarterbacks in the NFL.
• The Giants' pass defense is vulnerable. Deonte Banks and Cor'Dale Flott are the projected starting CBs and they played poorly in 2023. The star of their 2023 season, McKinney, left in free agency and was replaced by second-round pick Tyler Nubin, who scored a 3.67 RAS (relative athletic score) out of 10. The Giants' defensive front is good, but the defensive backfield could make them much less potent.

Detroit: 10.5 Wins = Over

2023 record = 12-5

• Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson returns for 2024. Most anticipated that Johnson would take a head coaching opportunity in the NFL, but shockingly, he returned to the Lions. Johnson has been an offensive coordinator for the last two seasons in Detroit, and they've finished in the top five in the NFL in offensive scoring and yards gained. Detroit's powerful offense is staying for 2024.
• Despite playing a first-place schedule, Detroit avoided any big disadvantages from the schedule. They rank 21st in strength of schedule and have a -1 net rest day compared to their opponents. They play nine home games, including three of the initial four games of the season and five of the last eight games.
• Both trenches were upgraded. The Lions offensive line has been considered a strength in recent years and most ranked them in the top three in the NFL for 2023. In the offseason, they upgraded the right guard position from Jonah Jackson to Kevin Zeitler, who made the Pro Bowl last year. DJ Reader was brought in to take pressure off of Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill on the defensive line. Reader has been a top 10 DT for the majority of the last five seasons. The Lions also took a calculated gamble by signing Marcus Davenport to play opposite Hutchinson. Davenport is a talented player who has struggled with injuries. Detroit has players it can rotate at the position to keep everyone fresh and healthy.
• Detroit is favored in 13 games this season and an underdog by more than a point only twice. The betting lines favor over 10.5 wins for this Lions team.
• The 2023 Lions' most glaring weakness was at cornerback. To fix this concern, they brought in proven veterans and drafted rookies. Carlton Davis and Amik Roberston were signed to raise the cornerback room to NFL starter level. Then Detroit drafted Terrion Arnold in round one and Ennis Rakestraw in round two to add high-ceiling players to the position group. 

Tennessee: 6.5 Wins = Under

2023 record = 6-11

• Tennessee's top three coaches are unproven. Head coach Brian Callahan, offensive coordinator Nick Holz, and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson have not coached these positions at any level of football. This leaves more variance for the Titans, especially in 2024.
• The Titans offseason was confusing because they won six games last year, and the new regime decided to invest heavily in players on the downsides of their careers. They paired 32-year-old DeAndre Hopkins with 29-year-old receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. 27-year-old Tony Pollard looks a lot like Tyjae Spears, who was already on the roster. Cornerbacks age quickly due to the demands of the position, but Tennessee spent significant resources acquiring 27-year-old L'Jarius Sneed and 29-year-old Chidobe Awuzie, who both regressed in 2023.
• Will Levis threw four touchdown passes in his debut start in the NFL but then four TD passes against four interceptions over his last eight starts of the 2023 season. Levis finished 32nd among quarterbacks in completion percentage, 31st in QBR, 24th in QB rating, 30th in success percentage, and was sacked at the fifth-highest rate.
• Tennessee has the 6th most difficult schedule in 2024. Remember, only 4 of the NFL teams with the 15 most difficult predicted schedules in 2023 finished with a winning record. They do have a +6 net rest advantage, but only one of those games is more than a single day of extra rest. Two or more days is when the advantage becomes more statistically significant.
• The Titans lost some significant pieces in the last 18 months. David Long left in free agency last offseason, Kevin Byard was traded during the 2023 season, and Azeez Al-Shaair signed with the Texans this offseason. Either Byard or Al-Shaair have led the Titans in tackles each of the last four seasons. Derrick Henry has led the Titans in rushing each of the last seven seasons, and he's now in Baltimore. Innovative defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is now with the Giants as well. The grass could be greener for Tennessee, but they lost quite a few pillars of the franchise in the last 18 months.

NY Jets: 9.5 Wins = Over

2023 record = 7-10

• The Jets play the 4th easiest strength of schedule for the 2024 season. They're favored in 14 of their games and have a +5 net rest day advantage over their opponents.
• One of the best defenses in the NFL. Despite playing with a terrible offense in 2023, the Jets defense gave up the 3rd fewest yards gained. Quinnen Williams, Sauce Gardner, C.J. Mosley, and Quincy Williams are all among the top of the NFL at their respective positions. The Jets replaced Bryce Huff with Hasaan Reddick and signed Javon Kinlaw to reinforce an already good defensive line rotation.
• Additions on the offensive line could flip it from one of the worst in the NFL to one of the best in the NFL. Tyron Smith, John Simpson, and Morgan Moses were brought in as veterans to start and provide stability to the OL. Alijah Vera-Tucker needs to stay healthy, but he can perform as a good guard in the NFL and Joe Tippmann showed promise as a rookie center. To provide even more security, the Jets drafted Olu Fashanu in the first round, and he will provide great depth.
• If Aaron Rodgers is healthy, he's a top-12 NFL QB. Rodgers has had a long and decorated career of high-end performance. He limits turning the football over, which leans in well to the defensive strength of this Jets team. Rodgers only needs to perform as an above-average starter for this team to win 10 games. However, Rodgers can play at an elite level, which could make the Jets one of the toughest outs of the 2024 season.
• The Jets are surrounding Rodgers with good weapons. Breece Hall has established himself as a top running back in this league, and Garrett Wilson hopes to take that step this season at WR. But the Jets signed Mike Williams in free agency, who is coming off a torn ACL. Despite working through multiple injuries in his career, Williams has proven to be a solid producer on the field. Williams and Allen Lazard, Rodgers' old buddy in Green Bay, will provide good red-zone matchups for the Jets. At the same time, Wilson and rookie Malachi Corley will be YAC monsters to provide balance to this passing attack.

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