Through five weeks of the 2023 season, CeeDee Lamb was the WR16. Amon-Ra St. Brown was WR21. Rashee Rice was WR50. Breece Hall was RB20. Jahmyr Gibbs was RB32. Dak Prescott was QB21. David Njoku was TE24.
That team would have won your league. It likely would not have been close.
From Week 6 through 17, Prescott was the QB1. Hall and Gibbs were RB3 and RB4. Lamb was WR1, St. Brown was WR2, and Njoku was TE1.
Rice was WR13. It took Rice until Week 12 to pick up, but you would probably have been fine.
After sifting through training camp reports to find sleepers in August. Drafting rosters. Over a month of "Seven Hours Of Commercial Free Football." By Week 5, we have consumed a lot.
We are just getting started.
The best fantasy managers look for opportunities where a consensus opinion has formed but is wrong.
Following Week 5 in 2023, you likely could have traded Patrick Mahomes II, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane, and Mark Andrews straight up for our rebound team. It would have elicited trade veto demands and been mocked relentlessly in league chats.
That team might not have won another game.
Look for shifting tides.
- Did the league figure out Sam Darnold again after he was QB4 over the first quarter of the season?
- Is Kirk Cousins feeling healthy, comfortable, and ready for a run?
- Is Rico Dowdle ready to run as Dallas's top back?
- Did Tank Bigsby flip the Jacksonville backfield?
- Is Khalil Shakir the capstone to Buffalo's offensive attack?
After more than two months of endless football content, it can be easy to think we have all the answers.
The best players have just started to ask the questions.
Thank you, Nathan Jahnke.
And now, The Roundup.
Blind Resume
Player | Passing Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|
A | 331 | 1 |
B | 392 | 5 |
C | 304 | 2 |
D | 371 | 2 |
Guess what's back? Passing is back! A quartet of players who went at the top of the last five years of draft classes all delivered 300+ passing yard days. Can you place this production?
Deep League Waiver Watch List
This space is changing. My in-depth coverage of waivers will move to "Waivers of the Future," which will be released after this column but will be linked later. Instead, this will be a light introduction to players to watch on your waivers this week, emphasizing Superflex and deep leagues.
QB Jameis Winston, Cleveland (37% Sleeper rostered) - The clock is ticking on Deshaun Watson. Winston feels like a "when," not "if."
QB Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas (47% Sleeper rostered) - The Raiders won in Week 4, so there was no need for postgame quarterback comments. They were losing in Week 5, so Gardner Minshew II was benched. C'est la vie.
QB Tyrod Taylor, New York Jets (16% Sleeper rostered) - Aaron Rodgers came out of Week 5 with an ankle injury. He said he should be fine. The Jets play on Monday night, so if you rely on Rodgers, proactively cover yourself.
QB Mitchell Trubisky, Buffalo (10% Sleeper rostered)—The Jets opponent on Monday night also had a quarterback injury. Though he had returned, Josh Allen looked to have suffered a head injury. He played like he had a head injury when he returned. The chances of someone relying on Allen are much higher than Rodgers's. Trubisky will likely need to be added unless the Jets' quarterback situation is accessible or we have news that Allen is ruled out before Sunday.
RB Ty Chandler, Minnesota (86% Sleeper rostered): The Vikings have a Week 6 bye. Aaron Jones's hip injury is a high-priority injury watch. The week off comes at the right time.
RB Dare Ogunbowale, Houston (24% Sleeper rostered)—Ogunbowale looked to have taken the job from Cam Akers. Dameon Pierce returned to practice before the game but did not return to active status. Pierce is the priority target if available, but Ogunowale is a deep league option as long as Joe Mixon is out.
RB Kendre Miller, New Orleans (85% Sleeper rostered) - Dennis Allen said something nice about Miller, who is returning to practice after an injury. That is newsworthy.
RB Kendall Milton, Cincinnati (4% Sleeper rostered) - Zack Moss had an ankle injury late in the game, and Chase Brown took over on the last two drives. Treyveon Williams is in Year 6 with Cincinnati, and most of his career work has come in Week 18 games, which means little. Milton is a potential power compliment to Brown.
WR Jonathan Mingo (66% Sleeper rostered) and Jalen Coker, Carolina (18% Sleeper rostered) - Xavier Legette picked up a shoulder injury and missed the second half. Mingo was an every-snap player in his absence, with Coker as the WR3. The Panthers are the type of team who could let their youth see heavy work down the stretch.
WR Darius Slayton, NY Giants (53% Sleeper rostered) - A fantasy zombie, Slayton has been a big part of the Giants revival. Slayton has finished between 724 and 770 receiving yards in four of the last five seasons.
WR Malik Heath, Green Bay (4% Sleeper rostered) - Heath played the same snap number as Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. He looks like the stand-in for Romeo Doubs. There was little production, but some play in leagues that roster any player who gets a snap. Heath got snaps.
TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, Carolina (82% Sleeper rostered) - Tommy Tremble left after a scary head injury. Sanders is nearly an every-down player without him unless Ian Thomas can make it back into the lineup. He saw five targets in the blowout loss.
TE Charlie Kolar, Baltimore (2% Sleeper rostered) - Every fantasy manager lept with joy when they saw a Baltimore tight end making a play downfield. Then they realized it was Kolar, not Mark Andrews. Isaiah Likely, not Andrews, has led Ravens tight ends in snaps the last three weeks and scored two touchdowns.
Stats Of The Week
100 career touchdowns - WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
100 career touchdowns - RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore - Evans, and Henry are the active leaders in touchdowns scored, each hitting 100 career touchdowns in Week 5. The total ties them with Frank Gore Jr., Curtis Martin, and Franco Harris for the 23rd most in NFL history. Steve Largent (101), Don Hutson (103), and Tim Brown (105) are the names they will look to pass next. They are four touchdowns from halfway to Jerry Rice's NFL record of 208.
509 passing yards, four passing touchdowns—QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta—Cousins posted the first 500-yard passing day since Joe Burrow in 2021 and the 25th in NFL history. His 509 yards were a career-high and a Falcons franchise record.
22 targets, 13 receptions, 101 yards, and one touchdown - WR Garrett Wilson, NY Jets - Per our Dave Kluge, Wilson's targets were the most by an Aaron Rodgers receiver. With Davante Adams trade rumors thick in the air, did Rodgers send a message about target opportunity to his former teammate? Perhaps they just finally unlocked Wilson. For the hand-wringing about Wilson's start, he is now on pace for 112 receptions and seven touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb was WR16 through five weeks in 2023 before going on a tear and finishing as the overall WR1.
97 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, four receptions, -2 receiving yards - RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina - Hubbard became the first back since Ezekiel Elliott in 2018 to record 97+ rushing yards and 4+ receptions in three consecutive games. Multiple players have streaks of four consecutive games. No player has hit the marks in five straight.
348 passing yards, 26/42, four passing touchdowns, 55 rushing yards - QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore - Jackson recorded the 33rd game with 340+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards in NFL history. He became the sixth player to add four passing touchdowns to those numbers. He is the only player in NFL history with two career 340-4-50 games, hitting the numbers in Week 5 of 2021 against Indianapolis.
396 receiving yards and five touchdowns - WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati - Since 1970, 51 players have posted 396 receiving yards and 5+ touchdowns over a three-game span. D.J. Moore was the last in 2023 off the back of a 230-3 game in Week 5. Chase joined the list with 193 yards, the third-highest total in his career. He started slow, WR40 through the first two games. He is now up to WR1 on the season. His 17-game production pace over the last three is 2,244 yards and 28 touchdowns.
8 receptions, 97 yards, one touchdown - TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas - The NFL has 25 games of 8+ receptions and 97+ yards by a rookie tight end. Brock Bowers has two of the 25. He has played five games. Players have yet to hit those numbers three times.
Backfield Hierarchy
Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.
Bellcows
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Catches | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | RB1 | James Conner | 19 | 3 | 2 | 95.65% |
RB2 | Emari Demercado | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4.35% | |
Buffalo | RB1 | James Cook | 20 | 2 | 2 | 81.48% |
RB2 | Ray Davis | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7.41% | |
RB3 | Ty Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.11% | |
Carolina | RB1 | Chuba Hubbard | 13 | 4 | 4 | 77.27% |
RB2 | Miles Sanders | 2 | 3 | 2 | 22.73% | |
Chicago | RB1 | D'Andre Swift | 21 | 2 | 2 | 69.70% |
RB2 | Roschon Johnson | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.30% | |
Dallas | RB1 | Rico Dowdle | 20 | 2 | 2 | 68.75% |
RB2 | Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21.88% | |
RB3 | Hunter Luepke | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9.37% | |
Green Bay | RB1 | Josh Jacobs | 19 | 1 | 1 | 74.07% |
RB2 | Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 1 | 1 | 25.93% | |
Kansas City | RB1 | Kareem Hunt | MNF | 62.96% | ||
RB2 | Samaje Perine | 18.52% | ||||
RB3 | Carson Steele | 18.52% | ||||
LA Chargers | RB1 | J.K. Dobbins | Wk 5 bye | 75.00% | ||
RB2 | Gus Edwards | 25.00% | ||||
LA Rams | RB1 | Kyren Williams | 22 | 1 | 1 | 79.31% |
RB2 | Blake Corum | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20.69% | |
Minnesota | RB1 | Ty Chandler | 14 | 2 | 2 | 59.26% |
RB2 | Aaron Jones* | 7 | 1 | 1 | 29.63% | |
RB3 | Myles Gaskin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11.11% | |
New Orleans | RB1 | Alvin Kamara | MNF | 71.79% | ||
RB2 | Jamaal Williams | 12.80% | ||||
RB3 | Taysom Hill | 15.38% | ||||
NY Giants | RB1 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.. | 18 | 1 | 1 | 70.37% |
RB2 | Eric Gray | 4 | 4 | 3 | 29.63% |
It was a question Sunday Morning Live. For the record, Trey Benson can not be in your fantasy lineup. The Cardinals have had the weirdest game scripts. They blew out the Rams, and then Washington flipped that script. They fell behind by two touchdowns in the first half against the Lions and 49ers before shutting both out in the second half. Benson has played in some of the lopsided games. He did not get a snap in a tight game against San Francisco. Conner is the only Cardinals back that can hit lineups.
Cook continued as the lead back in Buffalo. Ty Johnson is ahead of Ray Davis. Every indication is that if Cook were to miss time, Johnson would be ahead. Davis is widely considered the cuff to hold, while Johnson is available in many deep leagues. That could be backward.
Hubbard has been the Panthers' brightest spot since Week 2. He is legitimately a good running back for the National Football League. The Panthers are 1-4 and a legitimately lousy football team. At some point with this production, Dynasty managers must monitor an extension, and Hubbard could cement himself as a thorn in Jonathon Brooks' value beyond 2024.
Swift has looked explosive in back-to-back games after being declared dead. I am concerned fantasy managers have miscategorized Johnson as a startable asset. He has had no passing game involvement for two weeks. Red zone touchdowns have bailed out anyone who took a chance on him on otherwise inefficient run days. Swift may continue to get tackled on the 1-yard line, and maybe Johnson will continue to be a vulture. And we may not get a better chance to flip Johnson than now. Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert is the best running back in the world who does not step foot on a field weekly.
Dowdle is the lead back in Dallas. His snap share still hovers at 50%, but he is an offensive focal point in ways that Elliott is not. Week 5 represents a breakthrough: he totaled 114 scrimmage yards and scored for the second straight week. Dowdle showcased on an island game half the world slept through. He is a buy.
Emanuel Wilson. Not a thing. The Packers have played two "normal" games, Week 1 against Philadelphia and Week 5. In both, Jacobs was the dominant Bellcow. With Jordan Love back in the lineup and normalcy returned Wilson's role in Weeks 3 and 4 had more to do with the Packers looking for opportunities to lighten Jacobs's load when possible.
Just when I point out Ronnie Rivers is under-rostered relative to his potential upside, he gets benched, and Corum is the complement. This split makes more sense and looks closer to what we expect. Corum bag holders get a slight sigh of relief.
Jones left the Vikings' win early with a hip injury. Chandler took over in a Bellcow role. The trip back from London means a Week 6 bye. Jones had emerged as the lead. Chandler would be a Bellcow and a weekly start without Jones. If Jones is limited, the work share could get muddied. A healthy Jones is still the guy.
A Giants back has not rushed for 129 yards since Saquon Barkley in Week 10, 2022. Tracy Jr. hit it in his first start. He has worked as a complement to Devin Singletary, but this performance makes teams rethink their backfield rotations. A touchdown or the 50 receiving yards that went to Gray would have been a lovely topper, but anyone forced to play Tracy is happy.
Running backs have exploited the Dallas defense. Harris dominated touches in an offense built around power football in a bad-weather game. He scored 9.7 full PPR points—the essential Najee Harris experience.
Mason posted his worst fantasy day of the season and lost a critical fumble deep in the red zone with the 49ers up two. Guerendo has five carries in two of the last three games, but Mason has been too good to let one play shift his usage dramatically.
The Giants came into this match with the 31st-ranked run defense, giving up 5.1 yards per attempt. Ryan Grubb decided to call just five runs for Walker and two for Charbonnet. The Seahawks lost. New jobs have learning curves.
Committee With A Lead
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Catches | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | RB1 | Bijan Robinson | 12 | 3 | 3 | 62.50% |
RB2 | Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 3 | 3 | 37.50% | |
Baltimore | RB1 | Derrick Henry | 15 | 1 | 1 | 72.97% |
RB2 | Justice Hill | 5 | 2 | 1 | 27.03% | |
Cleveland | RB1 | Jerome Ford | 9 | 3 | 3 | 50.00% |
RB2 | D'Onta Foreman | 9 | 1 | 1 | 41.67% | |
RB3 | Pierre Strong Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8.33% | |
Denver | RB1 | Javonte Williams | 13 | 6 | 6 | 65.52% |
RB2 | Jaleel McLaughlin | 6 | 4 | 3 | 34.48% | |
Houston | RB1 | Dare Ogunbowale | 15 | 7 | 6 | 64.71% |
RB2 | Cam Akers | 9 | 3 | 2 | 35.29% | |
Indianapolis | RB1 | Trey Sermon | 10 | 6 | 6 | 66.67% |
RB2 | Tyler Goodson | 5 | 3 | 3 | 33.33% | |
Jacksonville | RB1 | Tank Bigsby | 13 | 1 | 1 | 45.16% |
RB2 | Travis Etienne Jr.. | 6 | 7 | 6 | 41.94% | |
RB3 | D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12.90% | |
Las Vegas | RB1 | Alexander Mattison | 15 | 3 | 2 | 69.23% |
RB2 | Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 3 | 3 | 30.77% | |
New England | RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 4 | 4 | 69.57% |
RB2 | Antonio Gibson | 6 | 1 | 1 | 30.43% | |
NY Jets | RB1 | Breece Hall | 9 | 4 | 3 | 65.00% |
RB2 | Braelon Allen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 35.00% | |
Seattle | RB1 | Ken Walker III Jr. | 5 | 8 | 7 | 65.00% |
RB2 | Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 5 | 3 | 35.00% | |
Washington | RB1 | Brian Robinson Jr. | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31.82% |
RB2 | Austin Ekeler | 6 | 2 | 2 | 36.36% | |
RB3 | Jeremy McNichols | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31.82% |
This week's Falcons Fantasy Frustration was less about who got the most touches in the backfield and more about when they got them. Robinson was well ahead of Allgeier in opportunities, but Allgeier was in the game late in obvious passing situations. Robinson posted 61 rush yards with three receptions and 16 receiving yards: a 17-game pace of 1,037 rush yards, 51 receptions, and 272 receiving yards. It's not great, but it's not a massive red flag. This game is a floor we should be able to live with, especially when the offense passed for 509 yards and won. But from a unanimous first-round fantasy pick, we still want more.
Gamescript broke away from Henry as the Ravens came back from behind, and Hill out-snapped him. The touches were not close. Week 5 was a "worst-case" scenario for Henry, and he still hit 92 rushing yards and scored. Signing Henry was a good idea.
I do not know what you will get from the Browns, nor do they. They are 1-4 and now face a stretch of Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. Nick Chubb is back to practice, so there is that.
Break up the Broncos! Suddenly, the team has won three straight, and one-possession losses to Seattle and Pittsburgh look slightly different. Williams is emerging as a fantasy buy, posting 111 scrimmage yards and averaging 74.25 over the last four weeks. Eventually, he will break the endzone and can still emerge as the mid-RB2 we all thought we drafted in August.
Houston stays in the same category—the name on the first line changes. Anyone who started Akers has to feel like they got away with one, as a touchdown overshadows that Ogunbowale had a much higher opportunity share. Dameon Pierce was able to practice leading up to Week 5 and could be on top in Week 6, but Akers feels like a squandered "ZeroRB" opportunity and a risky play after the last three weeks.
Everyone who started Sermon is happy. A touchdown and six catches in PPR formats put Sermon in line for an RB1 week. People who panic-started Goodson received a fringe RB2 week. They should be happy, too, but no one is happy when they have to panic-start Goodson.
The Jaguars should stay as a True Committee, given how the team's usage worked out. But Bigsby has moved ahead of Etienne in the run pecking order. Etienne scraped out a decent day in PPR scoring, but no one who drafted him expected RB24 and trending downward. The per-game analysis paints this picture. Bigsby was knocked out early in Week 2 on a kick return and was limited in Week 3. Those were Etienne's best games. Removing those two games gives Bigsby 13.9 .5 PPR points per game, good for RB18. Etienne drops to RB36 at 8.8.
Much to the chagrin of Dynasty managers, it was not "Dylan Laube SZN." With Zamir White inactive, Mattison took the lead. Because it is the Raiders and Mattison, Abdullah led the team in rushing yards on a fraction of the carries and scored a touchdown. At this point, if you are starting a Raiders running back, ten fantasy points is a win.
Jets fans want you to know New York has no timeshare.
Stevenson was "benched" but handled nearly 70% of the work. He responded with his best game since Week 1, scoring a touchdown and topping 90 scrimmage yards. Gibson still looked explosive, with 56 scrimmage yards on seven touches. If only the team had an offensive line, that would not eradicate Drake Maye.
Robinson scored two touchdowns to reward fantasy managers. He has been managing a knee injury and was questionable to play. A three-touchdown lead at halftime let him get an early break. McNichols took over and scored for the second straight week. The team is committed to a two-back rotation. If McNichols keeps answering the bell, it could become three.
True Committees
Team | Back | Player | Rushes | Targets | Catches | Opportunity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati | RB1 | Chase Brown | 12 | 3 | 3 | 53.57% |
RB2 | Zack Moss | 9 | 4 | 3 | 46.43% | |
Miami | RB1 | Raheem Mostert | 19 | 2 | 2 | 55.26% |
RB2 | Jaylen Wright | 13 | 0 | 0 | 34.21% | |
RB3 | De'Von Achane | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10.53% | |
Tampa Bay | RB1 | Rachaad White | 10 | 3 | 3 | 54.17% |
RB2 | Bucky Irving | 9 | 2 | 2 | 45.83% |
Moss dominated snaps and ran more routes. Brown touched the ball more and scored more fantasy points. Moss suffered an ankle injury late in the game. He was able to return, but we will watch his health. The Bengals' defense looks incapable of maintaining a lead, and Brown must prove himself in pass protection to develop. Dynasty managers must recognize that the Bengals are likely to invest in running back into what should be a deep rookie class.
The glass half full for the Dolphins includes a win, Mostert looking healthy, and Wright looking much more comfortable than his initial work. The empty glass is that they lost another key offensive player to concussion, with Achane missing most of the game. We have seen multiple variations of the Dolphins' offense in just five weeks, but only the second half of Week 1 is what we expected.
White broke a career-long 56-yard run and gained ten scrimmage yards on 12 other touches. The end stat sheet favors White on raw fantasy points. This backfield is one of the most predictable in the league. The touch split is dead even. Irving's evident better efficiency leaves everyone wondering when he will get more.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The charts below split these offenses into categories.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
Team | Team Targets | Player | Targets | Line | Target Share |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota | 28 | Justin Jefferson | 14 | 6-92-0 | 50.00% |
Jordan Addison | 8 | 3-36-0 | 28.57% | ||
Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2-31-0 | 7.14% | ||
NY Jets | 51 | Garrett Wilson | 22 | 13-101-1 | 43.14% |
Allen Lazard | 10 | 4-34-1 | 19.61% | ||
Tyler Conklin | 9 | 6-55-0 | 17.65% | ||
San Francisco | 32 | Brandon Aiyuk | 12 | 8-147-0 | 37.50% |
George Kittle | 12 | 8-64-1 | 37.50% | ||
Jauan Jennings | 4 | 1-13-0 | 12.50% | ||
Cincinnati | 39 | Tee Higgins | 14 | 9-83-2 | 35.90% |
Ja'Marr Chase | 12 | 10-193-2 | 30.77% | ||
Zack Moss | 4 | 3-28-0 | 10.26% | ||
NY Giants | 31 | Darius Slayton | 11 | 8-122-1 | 35.48% |
Wan'Dale Robinson | 9 | 6-36-1 | 29.03% | ||
Theo Johnson | 5 | 5-48-0 | 16.13% |
The Vikings ran the tightest tree between their top two options, with 78.57% of targets going to Jefferson and Addison. The volume was low, but the team played most of the game with a two-score lead against a complex defense.
The Jets have been running tight trees all year, but Breece Hall's absence is notable. A trailing script forced heavier volume, but this was an interesting showcase of Davante Adams's potential opportunity.
Aiyuk and Kittle are back. Deebo Samuel Sr., well.
It is encouraging that the Giants are keeping tight to their top two options without Malik Nabers. In his absence, Slayton was one of the best plug-and-play options.
Offenses with Top 3 Options > 80% Target Share
Team | Team Targets | Player | Targets | Line | Target Share |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami | 31 | Tyreek Hill | 9 | 6-69-0 | 29.03% |
Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 4-46-0 | 25.81% | ||
Jonnu Smith | 8 | 5-62-0 | 25.81% |
- You would be forgiven for ignoring Miami's passing game. Their focus on Hill and Waddle is long established. Jonnu Smith stepping up and solidifying the third spot is very interesting in the tight end landscape.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
Team | Team Targets | Player | Targets | Line | Target Share |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Las Vegas | 36 | Brock Bowers | 12 | 8-97-1 | 33.33% |
Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 6-72-0 | 25.00% | ||
Tre Tucker | 5 | 2-18-0 | 13.89% | ||
Arizona | 30 | Trey McBride | 9 | 6-53-0 | 30.00% |
Marvin Harrison Jr.. | 7 | 2-36-0 | 23.33% | ||
Michael Wilson | 6 | 5-78-0 | 20.00% | ||
Washington | 27 | Terry McLaurin | 8 | 4-112-0 | 29.63% |
Zach Ertz | 8 | 2-10-0 | 29.63% | ||
Luke McCaffrey | 3 | 3-19-0 | 11.11% | ||
Atlanta | 54 | Darnell Mooney | 16 | 9-105-2 | 29.63% |
Drake London | 13 | 12-154-1 | 24.07% | ||
Ray-Ray McCloud III | 9 | 6-66-0 | 16.67% | ||
Tampa Bay | 24 | Mike Evans | 7 | 5-62-2 | 29.17% |
Chris Godwin | 6 | 5-64-0 | 25.00% | ||
Cade Otton | 4 | 3-44-0 | 16.67% | ||
LA Rams | 45 | Colby Parkinson | 13 | 7-52-0 | 28.89% |
Jordan Whittington | 10 | 7-89-0 | 22.22% | ||
Tutu Atwell | 10 | 6-58-0 | 22.22% | ||
Chicago | 28 | DJ Moore | 8 | 5-105-2 | 28.57% |
Rome Odunze | 6 | 5-40-0 | 21.43% | ||
Keenan Allen | 6 | 3-33-0 | 21.43% | ||
Green Bay | 25 | Dontayvion Wicks | 7 | 2-20-0 | 28.00% |
Jayden Reed | 6 | 4-78-0 | 24.00% | ||
Tucker Kraft | 5 | 4-88-2 | 20.00% |
Minshew and O'Connell can get the ball to their top options. Bowers has solidified himself as the TE1 in Dynasty formats.
Atlanta's explosion is welcomed. The Falcons have four options capable of emerging as weekly plays, similar to the Vikings offenses Cousins has led, particularly in early 2023.
The Rams have a welcomed bye in Week 6. They expect Cooper Kupp to return after that. A trailing game script showed their comfort in using Parkinson, Whittington, and Atwell as primary options.
Kraft was one of the stars of the week. Wicks received the opportunity everyone hoped for, but he dropped it.
Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share
Team | Team Targets | Player | Targets | Line | Target Share |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland | 28 | Amari Cooper | 10 | 4-60-0 | 35.71% |
Elijah Moore | 4 | 1-14-0 | 14.29% | ||
Jordan Akins | 3 | 3-22-0 | 10.71% | ||
New England | 30 | Demario Douglas | 9 | 6-59-0 | 30.00% |
Ja'Lynn Polk | 6 | 1-13-0 | 20.00% | ||
Hunter Henry | 4 | 2-32-0 | 13.33% | ||
Baltimore | 41 | Zay Flowers | 12 | 7-111-0 | 29.27% |
Rashod Bateman | 8 | 4-58-1 | 19.51% | ||
Mark Andrews | 5 | 4-55-0 | 12.20% | ||
Pittsburgh | 26 | George Pickens | 7 | 3-26-0 | 26.92% |
Van Jefferson | 5 | 3-26-0 | 19.23% | ||
Connor Heyward | 4 | 2-23-1 | 15.38% | ||
Indianapolis | 45 | Josh Downs | 12 | 9-69-0 | 26.67% |
Michael Pittman Jr. | 8 | 5-37-1 | 17.78% | ||
Adonai Mitchell | 7 | 4-38-0 | 15.56% |
Douglas has a chance to emerge as a PPR option, but the Patriots want to play low-volume passing scripts regardless of game flow. Their offense's inconsistency and low ceiling are two strikes.
Flowers is Lamar Jackson's clear top receiving option. The only thing holding him back is the Ravens' comfort with running heavy at every opportunity.
The Colts threw 45 passes with Joe Flacco. With Anthony Richardson, they may try to avoid throwing 45 passes in a month. Downs and Pittman are must-play options with Flacco, who has non-existent floors with Richardson.
Offenses Under All Thresholds
Team | Team Targets | Player | Targets | Line | Target Share |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dallas | 41 | Jalen Tolbert | 10 | 7-87-1 | 24.39% |
CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 5-62-0 | 21.95% | ||
Jake Ferguson | 7 | 6-70-0 | 17.07% | ||
Jacksonville | 34 | Brian Thomas Jr.. | 8 | 5-122-1 | 23.53% |
Travis Etienne Jr.. | 7 | 6-43-0 | 20.59% | ||
Christian Kirk | 4 | 4-88-0 | 11.76% | ||
Denver | 26 | Javonte Williams | 6 | 5-50-0 | 23.08% |
Courtland Sutton | 5 | 2-32-0 | 19.23% | ||
Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 3-3-0 | 15.38% | ||
Houston | 35 | Stefon Diggs | 8 | 6-82-0 | 22.86% |
Dare Ogunbowale | 7 | 6-57-0 | 20.00% | ||
Dalton Schultz | 6 | 4-34-0 | 17.14% | ||
Buffalo | 29 | Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 2-34-0 | 20.69% |
Mack Hollins | 6 | 2-27-0 | 20.69% | ||
Keon Coleman | 5 | 1-49-1 | 17.24% | ||
Seattle | 39 | Ken Walker III | 8 | 7-57-0 | 20.51% |
DK Metcalf | 7 | 4-55-0 | 17.95% | ||
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 4-31-1 | 17.95% | ||
Carolina | 33 | Diontae Johnson | 6 | 3-23-0 | 18.18% |
Jonathan Mingo | 5 | 2-37-0 | 15.15% | ||
Ja'Tavion Sanders | 5 | 3-13-0 | 15.15% |
Brandin Cooks has been battling a knee issue that ultimately placed him on IR. The runway is clear for Tolbert, who is a must-add in shallow leagues.
The most optimistic Thomas Jr. supporters hoped he could emerge as the Jaguars top receiving option after a year of development. It took a month. Thomas Jr. is a star.
Houston's placement is contingent on Nico Collins's absence. There is hope that the injury that took Collins from the game is minor. Tank Dell's continued absence, even without Collins, is a red flag.
We all learned the value of Khalil Shakir quickly. Shakir entered Week 5 as WR20. If it was not for blowout gamescripts in Weeks 2 and 3, he easily could be inside the Top 12. Somehow, he is still the Dynasty WR44 on Keeptradecut.com. He is a must-buy.
Carolina ran into a buzzsaw. They used it as a chance to rest Johnson, who had been battling injury. He will bounce back.
The Landmine Lineup
We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!
- QB: Sam Darnold - 5.3 points
- RB: Breece Hall - 6.7 points
- RB: Jerome Ford- 7.9 points
- WR: Deebo Samuel Sr. - 3 points
- WR: Diontae Johnson - 5.9 points
- WR: George Pickens - 5.6 points
- Flex: Marvin Harrison Jr. - 5.6 points
- TE: David Njoku - 2.4 points
Finally, scoring was up in Week 5, and with it, the floor of the Landmine Lineup rose to 42.4 points. Darnold is a bit unfair, as no one should feel better this week, but he entered the week as QB4. Hall has been a disappointment the last two weeks, but he is still a Top 12 RB on the season before Monday night. Two Browns are on the list, but Washington entered the week as a defense we were all targeting. They have shut down the Cardinals and Browns in the last two weeks.
Players who beat it: No players beat the lineup heads up, but Ja'Marr Chase came closest with 41.3 points. This week was the best yet for ZeroRB drafters, with Chase, London, and Garrett Wilson among the receivers who carried first-round ADP, all returning their best weeks.
If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!
Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)
Week 5
- WR Stefon Diggs, Houston vs. Buffalo, Won 23-20, six catches, 82 yards.
- WR DJ Moore, Chicago vs. Carolina, Won 36-10, five catches, 105 yards, two touchdowns.
- QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota vs. NY Jets, Won 23-17, 14-31, 179 passing yards, one interception, and 11 rush yards.
- QB Geno Smith, Seattle vs. NY Giants, Lost 29-20, 28-40, 284 passing yards, one touchdown, 72 rushing yards.
- QB Jacoby Brissett, New England vs. Miami, Lost 15-10, 18-34, 160 passing yards, ten rushing yards.
- TE Tyler Conklin, NY Jets vs. Minnesota, Lost 23-17, six catches, 55 receiving yards.
- TE Jonnu Smith, Miami vs. New England, Won 15-10, five catches, 62 receiving yards.
- QB Andy Dalton, Carolina vs. Chicago, Lost 36-10, 18-28, 136 passing yards, one interception, and three rush yards.
- QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver vs. Las Vegas, Won 34-18, no stats
- WR Robert Woods, Houston vs. Buffalo, Won 23-20, no stats
- QB Case Keenum, Houston vs. Buffalo, Won 23-20, no stats
Week 6
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson, Pittsburgh vs. Las Vegas
- RB Ty Johnson, Buffalo vs. NY Jets
- QB Tyrod Taylor, NY Jets vs. Buffalo
- TE Tanner Hudson, Cincinnati vs. NY Giants
- QB Josh Johnson, Baltimore vs. Washington
Prospects Of The Week
- RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St. - 42 carries 337 rushing yards, four touchdowns / six receptions, 19 receiving yards.
- RB Quinshon Judkins, Ohio St - 60 carries, 468 rushing yards, five touchdowns / five receptions, 29 receiving yards
- WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio St. - 30 receptions, 433 yards, five touchdowns
- WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio St. - 23 receptions, 453 yards, six touchdowns
#2 Ohio St. vs. #3 Oregon, 7:30, NBC
In Week 2's Roundup, I highlighted the potential NFL talent filling Oregon's roster. The Ducks are doing their job at 5-0. I should have highlighted their opponent, Boise St.'s Ashton Jeanty. His time is coming. This time, it is Ohio St.'s turn as the Buckeyes step into their first significant challenge of 2024.
None of these four Buckeyes might have been mentioned a couple of seasons ago, and this quartet shows the impact of changes to Name Image and Likeness (NIL) and the transfer portal. Henderson and Egbuka were persuaded to return for senior seasons as the Buckeyes viewed themselves as having unfinished business.
Judkins immediately starred with Ole Miss before shockingly leaving what has been ranked as a Top 10 team to come north to Ohio St.
Smith is the most impactful true freshman for the Buckeyes since Maurice Clarett helped lead them to a National Championship over 20 years ago.
Both Henderson and Judkins can be three down featured backs at the NFL, making the rotation between the two a luxury few teams in college football history have enjoyed—Egbuka profiles as an NFL slot receiver. The three will likely be Day 2 picks in April's draft and populate the back of the first round in Superflex rookie drafts.
Smith is the best prospect in the group. A classic "x" receiver, Smith is 6'3" and 216 lbs. Simply put, true freshmen do not look and play like him. Visualize Nico Collins right now, but as an 18-year-old playing at the NCAA level.
The winner of this game will be able to start considering trips to Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game and an inside track to earning a first-round bye for the college football playoff. The loser will be looking for a rematch.
Blind Resume Answer
Player | Passing Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|
C.J. Stroud | 331 | 1 |
Joe Burrow | 392 | 5 |
Caleb Williams | 304 | 2 |
Trevor Lawrence | 371 | 2 |
Stroud has topped 331 yards each of the last two weeks after averaging 236 for the first three games. Burrow has gone over 324 in two of his previous three, with two touchdowns or more in four straight after 164 yards in Week 1. Williams has gone over 304 in two of his previous three, completing 71% of his passes the last two weeks and playing turnover-free football. Lastly, Lawrence topped 280 yards and won for the first time since Week 12 of 2023.
Perhaps "Two High" will not make the future of football look like the 1950s after all.
Footballguys' Content Spotlight
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Deep Players To Watch On Monday Night Football
TE Noah Gray, Kansas City
Rashee Rice's future is in the air, but we know he is out for at least the next four games after landing on injured reserve. The spotlight will be on JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore to replace him.
Gray might be the most interesting.
Gray has played just over half the snaps for the Chiefs this season after signing a three-year, $18 million extension, which makes him the 21st highest-paid tight end in the NFL.
Production has been limited, with back-to-back 28-catch seasons for an average of 302 yards. Gray stepped up with Rice out for four catches and 40 yards in Week 4. It is easy to feel that Gray has done little, but the perspective is interesting. Travis Kelce's career production before turning 25: 18 catches for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Gray posted 63 receptions for 640 yards and four touchdowns.
The losses of Rice, Marquise Brown, and Isiah Pacheco have left the Chiefs short-handed and searching for answers. The floor for viable fantasy tight ends is in the basement. A breakout by Gray could give deep league and dynasty managers their last chance at grabbing the heir to Travis Kelce's role with Patrick Mahomes II.