Christian McCaffrey. Isiah Pacheco. Cooper Kupp. Puka Nacua. A.J. Brown. Tua Tagovailoa. Evan Engram.
The list will continue to grow.
Injuries are an unfortunate reality in football. As fantasy managers, we can only hope to avoid them and react when we cannot. Christian McCaffrey's surprise Monday night scratch left managers reeling in Week 1. At least we knew about A.J. Brown yesterday morning.
So, what do you do when injuries hit?
A Guide to Fantasy Football Injuries
Handcuffs.
I recognize the insensitivity to this term. We associate it with a direct backup running back to a fantasy-relevant starter. An intriguing school of thought says you should never roster a handcuff because it limits the ceiling of your roster. Tell Christian McCaffrey managers who had Jordan Mason on their bench ready to swap in last Monday. This applies more to a Best Ball or a format that does not require active management during the season. I want to build for optimal upside and assume health as my top option. I had a sixth-grade teacher who taught us what it means to assume. In a managed league, I do not actively seek to grab handcuff backs above ADP, but I do not stray away from adding them at value. Mason was available on many deep waivers this summer. The idea McCaffrey owners should avoid adding him if the acquisition cost is free because of the hypothetical roster value ceiling is absurd. But so are most things in life if you stick to black-and-white applications.
Trading for production.
Here, I am much more rigid. I see McCaffrey managers trading second and sometimes even first-round rookie picks for Mason. This is ridiculous. If your team is not built to weather a player missing in your lineup, even if it is McCaffrey, trading away a future draft pick is the last thing you need. I recognize the possibility McCaffrey misses the entire season, but in that instance, you no longer have a contender built around McCaffrey. Do you think this is the last injury your lineup will have this year? I'm okay(ish) with the idea of trading future draft picks to help bolster a contender, but go out and add a player like Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara on a veteran discount and have a higher ceiling when McCaffrey does return.
Building a bench.
I naturally classify players into backs who will gain significant value with an injury before them and those who do not. A satellite or third down back rarely sees much value change if the “lead” back is injured and does not give you a weekly ceiling to be anything beyond a bye-week, what-the-heck flex (credit Sigmund Bloom for coining that term). Ideally, I have two, no-doubt, starting running backs and a bench full of players who gain value with injury. I can capitalize and upgrade elsewhere if there are more than three no-doubt backs on my roster. Someone in your league is always desperate for a running back; hence, Jordan Mason traded for early picks. The biggest key is allowing yourself to gain value.
Wide receiver injuries.
Receiver handcuffs are not real. Usually, the starters will increase their volume to account for a missing teammate. Bluntly, there is no easy answer for dealing with a loss to a receiver you drafted in the first round. ZeroRB builds should continue to draft receivers until the drop-off occurs around ~WR40. However, holding running backs who can gain value opens up opportunities for trade to address this lost production.
Adopt a DFS mindset.
One of my favorite stories deals with a rival from my home league. Significant bragging rights were always on the line when we would play. His team was better than mine that year as I was dealing with injuries. So I pivoted and adopted a DFS mindset of hunting the waiver wire for the best possible matchups for that week, throwing some darts on some longer-shot receivers who profiled for great matchups. It worked, and I was able to spring the upset that week. When dealing with injuries and bye weeks, compartmentalize and focus on the only thing that matters: beating the team before you. Sorry, Dan. Thank you, Terrance Williams!
Don't give up.
Don't ever give up. If you have played fantasy football long enough, you can probably think of an instance when a random game in Week 8 swung and affected the playoffs. Almost every league has people who quit or accidentally start inactive players. Keep swinging and allow luck to break in your favor. Getting into the playoffs is the primary goal of the regular season. Once you accomplish that, anything can happen.
Okay, give up if it's a dynasty.
We have all had teams that were just The Team From Hell. Dynasty allows pivoting if you have lost Tagovailoa, McCaffrey, Kupp, and Pacheco. You may have been planning on that team being a contender for nine months. This happened to you; you did not cause it. Pivoting to build value or rebound off one down year is perfectly acceptable. Sometimes, you may have been dealt a favor from being blinded by ambition.
Thank you, Nathan Jahnke. Check out Nathan's weekly usage article on PFF.com!
And now, The Roundup.
Blind Resume
Player | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|---|
A | 7 | 91 | 0 |
B | 8 | 109 | 0 |
C | 7 | 76 | 1 |
D | 9 | 98 | 0 |
Revenge of the tight ends! After a disappointing start to the season for elite tight end drafters, some players came through with high-volume days. Can you place this production?
Deep Dynasty Watch List
Identifying players rostered in less than 50% of Sleeper Dynasty leagues (give or take).
QB Skylar Thompson, Miami (14% Sleeper rostered) - The violent nature of football creates heart-stopping moments. Everyone watching stopped when Tua Tagovailoa hit the turf and exhibited the dreaded Fencing response. Tagovailoa and his family need to make the best decision for them. As a fan of the game, he should have our unconditional support. Due to the transactional nature of fantasy football, the importance of quarterbacks in Superflex formats, and the elite nature of offensive weapons in Miami, Thompson has to be mentioned. Times like this, “next man up” feels particularly cold. Thompson struggled to relieve Tagovailoa, but he beat out Mike White before the season. With a week of prep, Thompson should be better.
QB Andy Dalton, Carolina (8% Sleeper rostered) - How long is the leash in Carolina? Looks like it was two weeks long. If the Falcons score three points on Monday night, the Panthers will have the fewest points scored and the most points allowed. Dalton was a regular starter in New Orleans as recently as 2022, and he posted 361 passing yards in his only start in 2023. The Panthers need to get to some level of competition; it's probably in Young's best interest to sit him and allow the rest of the offense to get on the same page in Dave Canales' scheme.
RB Julius Chestnut, Tennessee (2% Sleeper rostered) - Tyjae Spears picked up an ankle injury in the loss to the Jets. Chestnut was active and played in the loss. If Spears misses time, this backfield will lean heavily on Tony Pollard. In deep leagues, the backfield churn matters, and part of that is adding players who are still backups but climb closer to an opportunity.
TE Brenton Strange, Jacksonville (17% Sleeper rostered) - Evan Engram was a bit of a surprise inactive, injuring his hamstring in pregame warmups. That pushed the second-year Strange into the lineup. He saw six targets, converting three for 65 yards. Strange is an athletic player capable of adding many of the same elements as Engram. Depending on the severity of Engram's injury, Strange could enter the pool for shallower leagues.
WR Jordan Whittington, LA Rams (71% Sleeper rostered) - The Puka Nacua IR placement likely chased Whittington off most deep waivers. The Cooper Kupp injury makes him a must-roster in almost all leagues. The Rams quickly emerge as the “Year From Hell” team (credit to The Ringer's Danny Heifetz). The Rams get the 49ers in Week 3. This could quickly become a “play the youth and see what they have” situation.
RB Carson Steele (4% Sleeper rostered) / RB Samaje Perine (8% Sleeper rostered), Kansas City - Isiah Pacheco was diagnosed with a fractured fibula. Without him in the lineup, the Chiefs are likely looking at a traditional committee, Perine handling passing game work and Steele as a short-yardage specialist. Injuries have already created desperate fantasy situations early on, and the ceiling is high on this offense. Both are worth adding to rosters while Pacheco is out, deferring to Perine in PPR formats.
WR Jalen Nailor, Minnesota (46% Sleeper rostered) - Nailor has scored in both games and is WR25 on the season. Justin Jefferson looked like his old self but picked up an injury in this game. The hope stands at no time missed, but Jordan Addison missed this game, and T.J. Hockenson's return is still far off. Nailor is an every-down player, as it stands for the Vikings. While his production has been boosted by the touchdowns, increasing the trust in Sam Darnold will lead to more volume.
Stats Of The Week
44.1 Passer Rating—QB Bryce Young, Carolina—Since 1978, only Ryan Leaf has attempted more than 200 passes in a season with a lower rating. Leaf posted a 39.0 rating as a rookie in 1998. The Panthers have already benched him.
15 for 15 / 91 Points—The Saints have 15 possessions on the season and 15 scoring drives. According to NFL research, only the 2009 Saints (93 points) scored more in the first two weeks, with the 1971 Cowboys equaling the Saints' 91 points.
Three rushing touchdowns / one receiving touchdown - RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans - Kamara posted his third career game with three or more rushing touchdowns, pairing it with a receiving touchdown for the first time. This was the 44th time in NFL history a player has rushed for three touchdowns while catching a touchdown pass. Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert were the only players to do it in 2023. Marshall Faulk is the only player in NFL history to accomplish this three times.
Thirty-two rush attempts - RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay - The 32 rushes were the second most of Jacobs's career, and he became the seventh Packers back to hit this number in a game. Joining Joe Mixon's 30 attempts in Week 1, the NFL has now equaled the total 30+ attempt games for each of 2023, 2022, and 2021.
Fifty-three rush attempts - The Packers became the first team since the 2021 Ravens to rush 50 times in a game. Seven teams have hit this mark since the 2010 season. The last time the Packers hit 50 rush attempts in a game was Week 13 in 1978.
131 rushing yards - RB J.K. Dobbins, LA Chargers - Dobbins posted the first back-to-back 100-yard games for a Charger since Melvin Gordon III in 2018. His recovery is one of the early feel-good stories. He hit 19.92 MPH in Week 1, tying Saquon Barkley as the fastest running back on the week. His injury history will create trepidation, and social media is filled with calls to “sell high”, but this may still be a buy-low situation.
Forty-four rush attempts—The Chargers tied their most rushing attempts since 2008. The last time they hit 44 attempts in a game was a 2020 overtime game against the Chiefs. The franchise record for attempts in a game is 58, but with Justin Herbert getting banged up, that may be threatened.
Twelve receptions / ten receptions - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and WR D.K. Metcalf, Seattle - The Seahawks had two receivers hit double-digit receptions for the first time in team history. Week 1 was odd, with Tyler Lockett as the top target and Metcalf and Smith-Njigba both afterthoughts. Fantasy managers must feel much better about the ADPs invested in the top two targets today.
Four receptions, 130 yards, two touchdowns - WR Marvin Harrison Jr. - The Randy Moss Club? Harrison Jr. became the 18th rookie to catch four passes or less, top 130 yards, and score twice. Marquise Brown was the last to do it in 2019. NFL fans of a certain age will never forget Moss's Thanksgiving 1998 performance when he posted 163 yards and three touchdowns on just three catches. Rumors of Harrison Jr.'s demise were greatly exaggerated; he is the fantasy WR1 of the week.
Backfield Hierarchy
Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.
BELLCOWS
- Arizona (James Conner - 22 touches / Emari Demercado - two touches / Trey Benson - 12 touches)
- Atlanta - Monday Night - No Change (Bijan Robinson / Tyler Allgeier)
- Buffalo (James Cook - 12 touches / Ray Davis - 10 touches / Ty Johnson - three touches)
- Green Bay (Josh Jacobs - 32 touches / Emanuel Wilson - five touches / MarShawn Lloyd - seven touches)
- Houston (Joe Mixon - 14 touches / Cam Akers - eight touches / Dare Ogunbowale - four touches)
- Indianapolis (Jonathan Taylor - 16 touches / Trey Sermon - three touches)
- Jacksonville (Travis Etienne - 17 touches / Tank Bigsby - 0 touches / D'Ernest Johnson - five touches)
- Las Vegas (Zamir White - 13 touches / Alexander Mattison - four touches / Ameer Abdullah - four touches)
- LA Rams (Kyren Williams - 17 touches / Blake Corum - eight touches / Ronnie Rivers - one touch)
- Miami (De'Von Achane - 29 touches / Raheem Mostert - DNP / Jeff Wilson Jr. - two touches / Jaylen Wright - 5 touches)
- NY Giants (Devin Singletary - 17 touches / Tyrone Tracy Jr. - one touch)
- NY Jets (Breece Hall - 22 touches / Braelon Allen - 11 touches)
- New Orleans (Alvin Kamara - 23 touches / Jamaal Williams - eight touches)
- Philadelphia - Monday Night - No Change (Saquon Barkley / Kenneth Gainwell / Will Shipley)
- San Francisco (Jordan Mason - 21 touches / Isaac Guerendo - one touch)
- Seattle (Zach Charbonnet - 19 touches / Kenny McIntosh - no touches)
- Tennessee (Tony Pollard - 23 touches / Tyjae Spears - eight touches)
Some Notes
Arizona put on the best performance of the week, dominating the Rams. Conner dominated opportunities, sat at RB6 in Week 2, and was a goal-line fumble away from being even higher. Kyler Murray is back to total health and nominally serves as the RB2 in this offense, chipping in 59 rushing yards. Benson saw 11 carries in garbage time but only totaled 10 yards. He is far from making this a committee. Conner is a difference-making fantasy asset only limited by his health.
I am not moving Buffalo out of this area yet. Davis's increasing involvement is a positive for his development, but most of his reps came with the game well in hand. Cook scored on a goal-line carry, a very encouraging sign compared to his 2023 usage.
Bell cow Josh Jacobs! The Colts allowed the Packers to play, not to lose, with Malik Willis replacing Jordan Love, and they took it, rushing 52 times. After missing Week 1, Lloyd was active but split work equally with Wilson. There is little reason to believe either will be anything but an occasional complement to Jacobs. Expect another heavy run dose if Willis starts in Week 3 against Tennessee.
Mixon survived an injury scare and returned to the game after spending time in the locker room. His absence shifted backfield usage. Akers has been a preseason drumbeat, and spending Week 1 as a healthy scratch was a surprise after reports that he had passed Dameon Pierce on the depth chart. Pierce was inactive due to injury, and Akers performed when called upon. Ogunbowale is a great guy, but it would be nice if he stopped shaving off touches.
At least we know Sermon is the backup to hold to Taylor in Indianapolis. The Colts' offense struggled, playing down two scores most of the game. Taylor's seeing some passing game involvement is encouraging; the 5.2 PPR points he added through that area ease a bit of concern after drawing a zero there in Week 1.
Bigsby was knocked out of the game early on a kick return, allowing work to shift solely back to Etienne. A touchdown saved an otherwise quiet day for the "Bellcow again." The Browns pressured Trevor Lawrence all day, and Lawrence has the highest sack-to-pass attempt ratio in the league, at 13.7%. Lawrence has not won a game since November 26th, 2023, when the Jaguars beat the Texans to get to 8-3, seven straight losses.
The Raiders do not know what they are doing with their backfield. We can only hope they do not keep trying to figure it out. The trailing game script and lack of production forced the team to the air and their best players, Bowers and Adams. Hopefully, the team realizes their best chance of success is feeding those two rather than worrying about which back has the hot hand. White dominated snaps and touches, Mattison was a vulture on the goal line, and anyone who started a Raiders back was unhappy.
I could not have been more wrong on the Rams this week. Falling behind early and an injury to Cooper Kupp right before halftime shades everything about this performance. Williams still dominated snaps and opportunities early, with Corum earning some mop-up work. Without Kupp and Nacua and missing three starting offensive linemen, this offense will struggle to get much work. Without Aaron Donald and multiple other vets from their Super Bowl-winning 2021 team, their defense cannot keep them in games. This is trouble.
Miami is interesting. If Achane is going to see 20+ touches a game, he has a chance to finish as the overall RB1. Wilson Jr. was in line to serve as the backup with Raheem Mostert out, but Wilson had an injury of his own. Wright was the only other back; he looked lost on five touches. Is this what the team envisions with Achane, or is this just a matter of circumstances? This is a significant question on a team with more questions than answers currently.
Hall separated from Bijan Robinson in closing ADP after rumors of an Atlanta timeshare with Tyler Allgeier. So, of course, Hall is the one looking at a split. Allen posted 56 scrimmage yards and scored twice, leaving Hall managers to wonder "what if" in an otherwise stellar game.
Singletary remains the unquestioned lead back for the Giants. The lack of passing game involvement is a limiting factor, with just one reception for no yards, but flirting with 100-yard rushing and scoring a touchdown leave managers happy.
Kamara dominated touches for the Saints, whose fast start allowed them to post a staggering 39 rush / 15 pass ratio. This offense attacks vertically in the passing game and grabs chunk yardage. Those 39 rush attempts were distributed between seven players, with Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave combing for four attempts. The Saints may be the best offense in football, and massive leads might be Kamara's only impediment to volume. They will probably play a close game, eventually.
With Christian McCaffrey's IR placement, this is now Mason's backfield. He will not equal McCaffrey's passing game usage and overall upside, but he has been a highlight through the first two weeks. With McCaffrey officially going on IR, Mason is a weekly must-start player. The bigger question is if he can maintain a role when McCaffrey can return.
Similar to 2023, with Ken Walker III out of the lineup, Charbonnet received Bellcow treatment. Charbonnet is a grinder and struggled to create meaningful chunks, but he scored and caught five passes to reward managers who played him. He is a must-start with Walker out, but finishing as RB11 on the week is likely flirting with his ceiling outcome.
Pollard is officially moving into Bellcow status. Spears made the share a bit closer than in Week 1, but he picked up an injury in the second half, and it was Pollard's show after that. If Spears is out of the lineup, Pollard has Top 12 RB1 upside.
COMMITTEE WITH A LEAD
- Chicago (D'Andre Swift - 19 touches / Travis Homer - one touch / Khalil Herbert - four touches)
- Cincinnati (Zack Moss - 13 touches / Chase Brown - four touches)
- Cleveland (Jerome Ford - nine touches / Pierre Strong Jr. - three touches / D'Onta Foreman - 15 touches)
- Dallas (Ezekiel Elliott - nine touches / Rico Dowdle - 12 touches / Deuce Vaughn - five touches)
- Denver (Javonte Williams - 16 touches / Jaleel McLaughlin - three touches / Tyler Badie - two touches )
- Minnesota (Aaron Jones - 15 touches / Ty Chandler - 10 touches)
- New England (Rhamondre Stevenson - 26 touches / Antonio Gibson - 12 touches)
- Pittsburgh (Najee Harris - 19 touches / Jaylen Warren - 11 touches / Cordarrelle Patterson - two touches)
- Washington (Brian Robinson - 20 touches / Austin Ekeler - 11 touches)
Some Notes
- The Bears are dedicated to making Swift a thing. We applaud them for that commitment, especially considering the first portion of Swift's career, which we spent begging the Lions to give him the ball more. The Bears are washing out an offseason of offensive optimism very quickly.
- Joe Mixon never met our expectations as a feature-back in the Bengals' offense. Moss is not Mixon, and Brown shaves off just enough work to limit him. Currently, the managers playing a Bengals back are hoping for a goal-line touchdown by Moss or Brown to break a big play. Moss has the "lead" role, but the offense does not feature the run enough for it to mean much.
- Foreman went from no touches to leading the Browns' backs in touches for reasons? The Browns picked up the win, but it had little to do with their offense, outside of Deshaun Watson adding a rushing touchdown to sit inside the Top 10 quarterbacks on the week. If this game script is an indication, the Browns know they can win with their defense and taking care of the ball, at least until or after Watson rediscovers himself. A committee is a death sentence here.
- Dallas has given us a game script with a big lead and one playing catchup. Through those two games, Elliott has 16 rushes and four catches, while Dowdle has 15 rushes and five catches. Dowdle took the lead this week, and he scraped together a decent PPR game, but without a touchdown, both top-backs will leave managers lacking.
- The Broncos trended hard towards Williams, with McLaughlin being utterly ineffective in his opportunities. With the way Bo Nix plays quarterback, he will have a floor in full PPR, adding 9.8 points through that area this week. Defenses will stack the box until Nix shows them they cannot. That feels a long way off.
- Jones lost a fumble heading into the end zone against San Francisco, one of the only low points on a very positive day for the Vikings. Maintaining control and converting that touchdown would have made Jones RB7 on the week. His role and efficiency give him a Week Top 12 ceiling. Chandler has proven himself to be an effective complementary back. Together, they provide a solid 1-2 punch for the Vikings on the field, but they cap each other for fantasy.
- I hesitate to move a back who received 26 touches out of Bellcow territory, but Gibson led the Patriots in rushing yards with 96 to Stevenson's 81. This game was a shootout by Patriots terms. The team will give Stevenson all he can handle, but Gibson's performance was very encouraging.
- Warren was more involved with an additional week to recover from his preseason injury. Harris still led the way. The Steelers are unlikely ever to be explosive offensively. They have faith in their defense and play ball control to win games, especially matched up against a rookie like Bo Nix. Both backs hold a low-end RB2 ceiling most weeks.
- Robinson Jr. looked great for the Commanders, totaling 133 rushing yards. Ekeler contributed with a somewhat usable 11.5 in full PPR. This is the backfield; Robinson Jr.'s power game complements Jayden Daniels on the read option well, while Ekeler is a very qualified change of pace.
TRUE COMMITTEES
- Baltimore ( Derrick Henry - 19 touches / Justice Hill - 6 touches)
- Carolina (Miles Sanders - ten touches / Chuba Hubbard - 15 touches)
- Detroit (David Montgomery - 15 touches / Jahmyr Gibbs - 20 touches)
- Kansas City (Isiah Pacheco - 24 touches / Samaje Perine - one touch / Carson Steele - seven touches)
- LA Chargers (J.K. Dobbins - 18 touches / Gus Edwards - 18 touches / Hassan Haskins - three touches)
- Tampa Bay (Rachaad White - 11 touches / Bucky Irving - 7 touches)
One Note
- Hill again out-snapped Henry, and Henry again out-touched Hill. This game script favored Henry, who scored a touchdown and totaled 96 scrimmage yards. We must accept that barely holding on as an RB1 on the week, with Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley still to go, is a realistic ceiling game for Henry outside of a multiple-touchdown effort. Removing the touchdown puts him barely as an RB2. Henry's last great sell window was likely his preseason hype in the new surroundings.
- Hubbard ceiling game? Hubbard took the lead this week after ceding Week 1 to Sanders, posting 11.6 PPR points. That is already more words than someone should use on the Panthers in a fantasy football column in 2024.
- In a trailing game script, touches slightly favored Gibbs. Montgomery still made his day, converting a goal-line opportunity. As usual, you are happy with either.
- Pacheco's fractured fibula was one of the week's big injury notes. What the Chiefs backfield will look like is speculation, but it is safe to assume no one is touching the ball 24 times. They will need to rely on the passing game for the time being. It's a good thing Patrick Mahomes II is the best quarterback in NFL history.
- We will give the Chargers a pass. Playing the Panthers means a lot of garbage time. There is a different energy when Dobbins is in the game compared to Edwards.
- Irving was more efficient than White! Irving posted 3.1 yards per carry on his touches, while White posted 1.8. Woof. Detroit has earned a reputation as a dominant run defense, and they have lived up to it. But the Buccaneers won. This offense is unlikely ever to be a dominant run offense; instead, it thrives through Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. Both White and Irving are going to play. White will struggle to live up to his ADP, while we rarely feel comfortable playing Irving in a stand-alone position.
The Target Report
Player | Team | Targets | Target Share | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Khalil Shakir | Buffalo | 5 | 27.78% | 5 | 54 | 0 |
De'Von Achane | Miami | 7 | 18.92% | 7 | 69 | 1 |
Jonnu Smith | Miami | 7 | 18.92% | 6 | 53 | 0 |
Rashid Shaheed | New Orleans | 4 | 26.67% | 4 | 96 | 1 |
Chris Olave | New Orleans | 6 | 40.00% | 4 | 81 | 0 |
Jalen Tolbert | Dallas | 9 | 21.95% | 6 | 82 | 0 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit | 19 | 35.85% | 11 | 119 | 0 |
Jameson Williams | Detroit | 11 | 20.75% | 5 | 79 | 0 |
Sam LaPorta | Detroit | 3 | 5.66% | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Alec Pierce | Indianapolis | 7 | 22.58% | 5 | 56 | 1 |
Christian Kirk | Jacksonville | 3 | 11.11% | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Zay Flowers | Baltimore | 11 | 35.48% | 7 | 91 | 1 |
Mark Andrews | Baltimore | 5 | 16.13% | 4 | 51 | 0 |
Isaiah Likely | Baltimore | 3 | 9.68% | 2 | 26 | 0 |
Davante Adams | Las Vegas | 12 | 33.33% | 9 | 110 | 1 |
Brock Bowers | Las Vegas | 9 | 25.00% | 9 | 98 | 0 |
Quentin Johnston | LA Chargers | 6 | 31.58% | 5 | 51 | 2 |
Deebo Samuel Sr. | San Francisco | 10 | 27.78% | 8 | 110 | 0 |
DK Metcalf | Seattle | 14 | 32.56% | 10 | 129 | 1 |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seattle | 16 | 37.21% | 12 | 117 | 0 |
Tyler Lockett | Seattle | 2 | 4.65% | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Hunter Henry | New England | 12 | 50.00% | 8 | 109 | 0 |
Malik Nabers | NY Giants | 18 | 66.67% | 10 | 127 | 1 |
Terry McLaurin | Washington | 8 | 27.59% | 6 | 22 | 0 |
Mike Gesicki | Cincinnati | 9 | 26.47% | 7 | 91 | 0 |
Erick All Jr.. | Cincinnati | 4 | 11.76% | 4 | 32 | 0 |
Drew Sample | Cincinnati | 3 | 8.82% | 3 | 28 | 0 |
Andrei Iosivas | Cincinnati | 4 | 11.76% | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Travis Kelce | Kansas City | 3 | 13.04% | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Nico Collins | Houston | 10 | 29.41% | 8 | 135 | 1 |
- Shakir has looked like Allen's primary target through two games. He combined with Dalton Kincaid to see half of Josh Allen's 18 targets. No other player saw more than two. The Bills were in complete control of this game, and both teams seemed to shift towards running out of the clock after Tagovailoa's scary injury. Volume may become an issue with Allen. He has seven career games under 20 pass attempts; two came with Joe Brady as OC, and the previous was Week 15 in 2023 against Dallas. The Bills have retooled their defense and look dominant through two games.
- Achane and Jonnu Smith both saw a team-leading seven targets. That was not on our bingo cards. Smith was a zero on the team's Week 1 tape, so they may have saved him for a divisional matchup or seen something they could exploit against the Bills.
- Fun with ratios. Shaheed and Olave are combing for a 67% target share! Derek Carr only needed 16 passes, with the Saints eventually jumping to a 35-13 lead. Shaheed is an early-season revelation, with two touchdowns of over 50 yards and a 1,437-yard pace. Olave also got going in this one; he made a great play in the air and came down half a yard away from adding a touchdown to his strong day.
- Tolbert was a camp story and a complete dud in Week 1, with one reception for two yards. He bounced back in a big way. CeeDee Lamb posted 90 yards and a touchdown to reward his managers, but tight end Luke Schoonmaker's 43 yards were the only other Cowboy to top 30 yards. Tolbert dominated Brandin Cooks in targets, nine to two. If that ratio keeps up, Tolbert, as the number two receiver, is A LOT different than Tolbert claiming the nominal WR3 role.
- Do you think St. Brown said something to Jared Goff after Jameson Williams' breakout in Week 1? St. Brown tied a career-high with 19 targets. His 11 receptions tied for his fourth most, and his 119 yards tied for his fifth most. Williams was still heavily involved, drawing 11 targets and posting 79 yards. LaPorta took the collar. St. Brown picked up an injury in this game, and his availability will need monitoring. Williams's breakout is legitimate, and while St. Brown's quiet Week 1 grabbed headlines, LaPorta is the more significant concern.
- Through two games, Pierce has been the Colts' best receiver. In a pregame interview before Week 1, Anthony Richardson told us to watch for Pierce. The two have a comfort level. Pierce's boom/bust nature and his standing surrounded by Michael Pittman Jr., Adonai Mitchell, and Josh Downs send up every red flag we have developed in fantasy. But his skillset fits Richardson much better than Gardner Minshew in 2023. This seems like a thing.
- The flashes from Brian Thomas Jr. have blinded an otherwise concerning offense in Jacksonville. Lawrence is getting hit, and the offense is getting called like they know they can't protect him. Meanwhile, Kirk, who should serve as the safety valve, is a complete zero. He battled an injury in the preseason, and the team could recognize his lack of involvement was a reason for the systemic struggles. More likely, though, is Thomas Jr. breaking out as a star and Kirk falling into a rotation with Evan Engram and Gabe Davis. In a week, he's dropped from Dynasty WR38 to WR46. That is a move worth making if you can pivot to someone like Shakir (Dynasty WR44).
- Buy Zay Flowers! Despite playing in "The Most Analyzed Game Of The Year," the Thursday night opener, Flowers, sat under the radar. Two near misses quieted that game, one a late potential game-winning touchdown, the other the only pass interference the Chiefs have committed since 2021. Likely's breakout also provided cover. But that game and this Week 2 performance show Flowers is the quiet focal point of this passing attack. A healthy Flowers will catch 100 balls; he's a first-round pick, attached to a high-end quarterback, and Dynasty WR26. One of the best values available.
- The Raiders cannot run the ball, which may save Luke Getsy from himself. The fantasy football community misunderstands Gardner Minshew II. Minshew rarely provides quarterback starting value, but he can get the ball to his best players. Half the league cannot say the same thing about their starting quarterback. A comeback effort forced the team to use Adams and Bowers as their focal points. Bowers is the real deal, and Adams still has it. Bowers should probably be viewed as Dynasty TE1 in a landscape filled with disappointment to start 2024. The market discount accompanying his perceived poor landing spot was a gift to one of the best tight-end prospects to enter the league.
- Johnston drew a 31% target share and scored twice. That is precisely what everyone expected when they used a Rookie 1st round pick on Johnston in 2023. Johnston's Dynasty value as WR71 is one of the most bizarre values in fantasy football. Through two weeks, people who bought in have been rewarded.
- McCaffrey means Samuel is back to the Deebo Role. Samuel has an elite-level volume ceiling, serving as the "pass-catching back" in addition to his traditional receiver duties. He sits as WR10 on the season, and we have not gotten a ceiling game yet.
- I said last week that everything we learned was wrong. The Seahawks are a prime example. Metcalf and Smith-Njigba both posted huge days. We hope to see this hyper-targeting out of the top two options.
- Speaking of hyper-targeting. Perhaps we now know the top option for the Patriots passing game. Henry became the third tight end for the Patriots to see 12+ targets, catch 8+ passes, and top 100 yards. Rob Gronkowski hit those numbers in five games, and Ben Coates did it three times. The receptions tied Henry's career high, and his yardage total was his career best.
- That sound you hear is a massive sigh of relief from managers who invested in Nabers at an ADP that got aggressive on some platforms. Daniel Jones is always a concern, and the Giants only get to play the Commanders one more time, but a 67% target share and the second-most targets in the league for Week 2 and on the season is what we want to see.
- McLaurin got a 28% target share! He caught six passes! He gained 22 yards?! Five wide receivers in NFL history have caught six or more passes while only totaling 22 yards; Nelson Agholor was the last in 2018.
- Should you start your tight ends against the Chiefs? Gesicki turned in his best game since 2021, showing flashes of the player who has gotten many of us to buy in during his career. Pairing this performance with Isaiah Likely's in Week 1, it seems the Chiefs have a problem against the tight end, as the Bengals group totaled 14 receptions and 151 yards.
- All Iosivas does is catch touchdowns. A week after many of us were hot on his opportunity, he was quiet. He was still quiet in the overall scheme, but touchdowns do count for more points, and he had two.
- Devin Knotts summed up Kelce better than I ever could: "You mean to tell me the 34-year-old who spent the offseason on a world tour with his pop star girlfriend is starting slow?" Is Kelce washed because he listened to pop music, or did he listen to pop music because he's washed?
- Collins's 252 passing yards are well in front of second-place Chris Godwin and Jameson Williams at 200 across the NFL. Stick to your guns, kid. My initial projections placed Collins as a Top 10 receiver. Forcing work share towards Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell lowered that slightly. Collins is the best receiver on the Texans, and standing out in an island game will make everyone realize it.
The Landmine Lineup
We often focus on “Spike Weeks” in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!
- QB: Josh Allen - 9.8 points
- RB: Rachaad White - 3.3 points
- RB: Ezekiel Elliott - 5.2 points
- WR: Keon Coleman - 0 points
- WR: Christian Watson - 0 points
- WR: Tank Dell - 2.3 points
- Flex: Christian Kirk - 0.9 points
- TE: Travis Kelce - 1.4 points
Elite quarterback and tight end, huh? An eight-man lineup posted 22.9 full PPR points. Brutal.
Players who beat it: Marvin Harrison Jr., DK Metcalf, Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, Alvin Kamara, De'Von Achane, James Cook, Breece Hall, and Kyler Murray. At least it did not lose to a backup tight end this week.
If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!
Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)
Week 2
- QB Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh vs. Denver, Won 13-6, inactive
- QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota vs. San Francisco, Won 23-17, 268 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, five rushes, 32 yards.
- WR Brandin Cooks, Dallas vs. New Orleans, Lost 44-19, 2 catches, 19 yards.
- RB Samaje Perine, Kansas City vs. Cincinnati, Won 26-25, one catch, three yards.
- WR Mack Hollins, Buffalo vs. Miami, Won 31-10, 0 receptions
- TE Hayden Hurst, LA Chargers vs. Carolina, Won 26-3, one catch, five yards.
- WR Nelson Agholor, Baltimore vs. Las Vegas, Lost 26-23, one catch, 13 yards
- WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.., New Orleans vs. Dallas, Won 44-19, no catches
- WR D.J. Chark, LA Chargers vs. Carolina, Won 26-3, inactive
- WR DeAndre Carter, Chicago vs. Houston, Lost 19-13, three catches, 32 yards
- QB Nick Mullens, Minnesota vs. San Francisco, Won 23-17
- QB Joshua Dobbs, San Francisco vs. Minnesota, Lost 23-17
- RB D'Ernest Johnson, Jacksonville vs. Cleveland, Lost 18-13, five rushes, 26 yards
- TE Pharaoh Brown, Seattle vs. New England, Won 23-20, no catches
Week 3
- QB Malik Willis, Green Bay vs. Tennessee
- WR Stefon Diggs, Houston vs. Minnesota
- WR Gabriel Davis, Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
- RB Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas vs. Carolina
College Prospects Of The Week
- QB Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee
- QB Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma, 7:30, ABC
This space is usually reserved to spotlight potential 2025 Dynasty rookie draft picks. But I make the rules. Tennessee vs. Oklahoma features two quarterbacks battling to claim the top quarterback spot in the 2026 NFL Draft. This game could shape up as the loser leaves town; Tennessee still faces Alabama and Georgia later in the season. Oklahoma has a looming gauntlet with six of their last nine games against ranked teams, with number 16 LSU the only team of that group outside of the Top 10.
Iamaleava was the number two quarterback prospect in the 2023 class. Arnold was number four. You may have heard of the guy who was number one, Texas's Arch Manning.
Tennessee's offense, the best in college football, has been averaging over 60 points through three games. The nature of the blowout wins has somewhat overshadowed Iamaleava's production; he is averaging “just” 233 yards passing, two passing touchdowns, and 34 rushing yards. However, his unique playing style, which is a blend of a big arm and athleticism, is a testament to his potential. Standing at 6'6 "and weighing 215 lbs, Iamaleava is a dual-threat athlete who also excels in volleyball.
Arnold, on the other hand, has a slightly different playing style, relying more on his rushing ability. It's worth noting that this is no longer Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma; the Sooners have adopted a defensive first philosophy, giving up just 11 points per game vs. 34 from their offense. Arnold has yet to top 175 passing yards in a game, but he posted 97 rushing yards with two touchdowns in Week 3 against Tulane.
The winner of this game is poised to set up a significant matchup in mid-October. Oklahoma will face Texas on October 12th, while Tennessee will take on Alabama on The Third Saturday In October, on the 19th. These games could further solidify the winner's position and influence their journey towards the NFL Draft.
Blind Resume Answer
Player | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
---|---|---|---|
Mike Gesicki | 7 | 91 | 0 |
Hunter Henry | 8 | 109 | 0 |
George Kittle | 7 | 76 | 1 |
Brock Bowers | 9 | 98 | 0 |
Precisely who you thought, right? At least Kittle and Bowers showed some production from the high-end range. As much as elite tight ends seem like cheat codes, the actual cheat codes are late-round players who provide similar production. Isaiah Likely off his great Week 1 is still TE1, Henry is TE4, and Gesicki is TE5. All three are talented players who should be aggressive acquisition targets for anyone who did not invest early in the position. Or maybe for people who did.
Footballguys' Content Spotlight
Joey Wright has positively influenced any life he has touched in the fantasy football space. As the host of Footballguys Sunday Morning LIVE Joey shines in his role as Community Ambassador. Behind the scenes, Joey has taken on the mantle for organizing company events like the annual Las Vegas retreat and coordinating schedules for the Fantasy Expo. He's sharp when it comes to fantasy football, too, placing 15th in 2023 fantasy draft accuracy.
From all of us, thank you for being you Joey!
Deep Players To Watch On Monday Night Football
WR Jahan Dotson, Philadelphia
Dotson appearing in “Deep Players” is a fall from grace for the 2022 1st-round pick. One year ago, he sat inside the Top 20 dynasty receivers on KeepTradeCut. Now? WR84.
Dotson's involvement was a question coming in to Week 1. He shared the WR3 position with Johnny Wilson and Britain Covey, playing 42% of the snaps. With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith ahead of him, and both Brown and the rookie Wilson facing injury concerns, Dotson's role could become more significant.
With only five receivers on the Eagles' active roster, including the injured Brown and Wilson, the team's receiving corps is notably thin, potentially opening up more opportunities for Dotson.
Eminem would say Dotson has “one shot or one opportunity to seize everything he ever wanted.”
The Eagles played three wide receivers on about 65% of their Week 1 snaps as the team is working through implementing Kellen Moore's new scheme. Covey is a kick returner with minimal offensive usage in multiple years with the team. Wilson is a raw rookie. Dotson could put a stranglehold on the position. Dynasty managers holding this bag pray for a big game in an island spotlight.