Marvin Harrison Jr. leaves Ohio St. fifth in career receptions, fourth in career yards, and third in career touchdowns. He follows Terry Glenn as the second Ohio St. receiver to win the Biletnikoff Award. Glenn won his award in 1995. A senior receiver from Syracuse who set his school record for single-season receiving yards was among the players he beat out for that award: Marvin Harrison.

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Peyton Manning and the elder Harrison have intertwined careers. However, Manning arrived in Harrison’s third year. His first Colts quarterback would come to know his son well. Jim Harbaugh would go on to lead his Michigan Wolverines over the Buckeyes each of Harrison’s three seasons, including his final collegiate game. The Harrison and Harbaugh families narrowly missed a reunion, as the Cardinals picked Harrison just before Harbaugh’s Chargers at fourth overall. Harrison became the highest-drafted receiver in Ohio St. history. Now he gets his opportunity as the focal point of the Cardinals offense. 

The Cardinals need him badly. 

Arizona’s Offensive Environment

The Cardinals added Zay Jones three weeks after the NFL draft was complete. He nearly doubled their receiving room’s career statistics. Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Zach Pascal, and Chris Moore had combined for 424 career receptions, 5,094 yards, and 31 touchdowns. Jones brings a 287-3,028-18 career line. 

Yikes.

More interesting than who occupies the receiver room is the personnel transition. When coach Jonathan Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing took over, they dealt with remnants of Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid system. Kingsbury’s offense played at least three receivers on 72% of snaps in 2021. His 13% usage of four-receiver sets was nearly double the second-place Jets. Meanwhile, Petzing served as tight ends coach, then quarterbacks coach in a Cleveland offense that was the opposite. Only the Brian Flores era Dolphins played 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) less than the Browns’ 45%. The Browns' 17% of snaps with three tight ends were more than double any other team. 

The Cardinals made a shift in this direction during the 2024 offseason. Time for Bully Ball. Rondale Moore is out, a player tailor-made for an Air Raid attack. Meanwhile, the team spent a Day 2 selection on tight end Illinois’ Tip Reiman. Reiman posted a 9.93 relative athletic score, one of the best all time, after running a 4.64 40 at 271 lbs. He averaged just over one catch per game during his time at Illinois. His job is straightforward: block. 

Tight end Trey McBride is the X factor. His usage shifted dramatically following the midseason release of Zach Ertz. With Ertz in the fold, McBride played almost exclusively inline, with 83% of his snaps coming from that position in Weeks 1 through 5. With Ertz gone, he lined up inside on 53%, taking the other 47% from the slot or out wide. The arrival of Reiman will allow McBride to serve as the starting slot, depending on how much the rookie can handle and how quickly he can get up to speed. That allows the Cardinals to play base 12 personnel. The result of these personnel groupings is two receivers who pace well ahead of the WR3 in the offense in targets. 

The 2022 Browns are an example of what this looks like in action. Their top two receivers, Amari Cooper (132) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (96), represented 45% of their targets. Meanwhile, nominal WR3 David Bell only saw 35, and no other receiver was over 10. There is plenty of room for McBride to thrive still. The Browns’ top three tight ends (David Njoku, Austin Hooper, and Harrison Bryant) combined to average 137 targets from 2020 through 2022. Evan Engram led the NFL in tight end targets in 2023 with 143, and second place T.J. Hockenson was well back at 127. 

The Cardinals should be one of the league leaders in funneling targets to their top two options, Harrison and McBride. Will that pressure be too much for a rookie receiver?

Rookies Have Broken The Model

Quick question: did Jaxon Smith-Njigba have a disappointing rookie season?

By dynasty valuation, he did. He spent most of the 2023 summer valued in the low-teens wide receiver ranks on Keeptradecut.com, peaking at WR10 in August. Now? The site values him at WR25. The success of rookies is no secret. Puka Nacua just broke the NFL rookie receiving record with 1,486 yards. Four rookie receivers have topped 1,400 yards, three of them since 2020, with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase joining Nacua. The fourth is Bill Groman. Groman had 1,473 yards in 1960 before posting 2,008 yards over the rest of his career. 

Smith-Njigba’s rookie line of 63 receptions, 628 yards, and fourth touchdowns is the perfect lens to illustrate how much perception around rookie production has changed. 

Since 1994, the NFL has drafted a total of 986 wide receivers. In total, 56 (just under 5.7%) of those receivers have topped 60 receptions in their rookie season, seven of which occurred in 2023, six in 2020, and four in 2021. The only other year to top three in a season was a 2014 class that included Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, and Sammy Watkins. 

Smith-Njigba’s 63 receptions would have led all rookies in nine of the last 30 seasons. That reception total was the second most in Seahawks team history by a rookie, trailing Joey Galloway. The landscape has flipped so dramatically that the question is no longer “Can a rookie receiver produce?” but instead, “Do we need to bail out on a player if he does not produce immediately?” The era of the “Year Three Breakout” is gone.

Harrison has as high of an immediate ceiling as any rookie in NFL history. How can his impact raise the tide of the Cardinals’ offense?

 Gravity

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton is instrumental in introducing the concept of gravity in the NBA. In summary, NBA defenses must defend a set area with a fixed number of defenders. Shooting and the ability to score from a distance breaks defenses down. The offense can expand the area they function in, while defenders need to stick closer to offensive players, creating spacing. Spacing is death to a defense. 

This concept works on a football field, too. NFL Network’s Bucky Brooks discusses constructing a basketball team when building a receiver room. Like a strong basketball roster, different receiver body types and skills allow offenses to attack in various areas. A player like Tyreek Hill can stress defenses vertically and create after the catch, possessing a high gravity. Defenses must tilt their attention in his direction. 

The recent movement of high-end NFL receivers illustrates how talent additions can affect the gravity of an NFL defense. The impact on the team's established receiver is evident in utilizing NFL Next Gen stats to examine cushion and separation stats. 

The cushion is the distance between a receiver pre-snap and the closest defender, while separation measures the distance between a defender and receiver when the ball arrives. Waddle is an interesting case of how a defense can shift their approach to a player. Before adding Hill, Waddle lined up in the slot with just over 50% of snaps. After adding Hill, he dropped to around 20% slot usage. A slot frequently lines up against a nickel back, who usually plays a step or two back from an outside corner. 

Adding a receiver with high gravity will tilt the defense in their direction, creating opportunities for their teammates. Given a limited team target opportunity, this creates a push/pull effect for fantasy football. Still, adding talent to a roster will improve efficiency and opportunities. 

Expect McBride to benefit. 

McBride’s breakout was a 2023 fantasy highlight. It is even more impressive considering the environment McBride functioned in relative to other top fantasy tight ends. 

McBride became the focal point of defensive attention during the year's second half. His cushion sat at the bottom of top tight ends, yet he could still generate separation near the group's top. 

The Cardinals offense should run a funnel offense through McBride and Harrison. The addition of Harrison should also contribute to a higher ceiling for a Cardinals offense. How does the rest of the picture add up?

Marvin Harrison Jr. Projections

Marvin Harrison Jr. Final Thoughts

The Cardinals' defense was terrible in 2023. Their 26.8 points per game ranked 31st, and they can thank the Commanders’ 30.5 points per game for the cover they provided. The result of this situation is often a passing opportunity. Kyler Murray has topped 38 pass attempts in 35% of his career games. He bumped that number up to 37% in his 2023 games. 

Given Harrison’s lofty draft status, landing with Kyler Murray is as close to the best-case scenario as high-end rookie receivers get. Murray’s best two seasons fall across two different scenarios. In 2020, he hyper-targeted DeAndre Hopkins, who more than doubled the second-highest receiving total on the team. In 2021, injuries to Hopkins forced Murray to involve other options. Christian Kirk (982 yards) and A.J. Green (848) led the team that season. 

Fantasy managers hope Harrison and McBride can become an upgraded version of the 2023 Browns offense led by Cooper and Njoku. Their 251 targets represented 42% of the team’s total targets, including three missed games. With Murray an entire season removed from his 2022 season-ending ACL injury and the team in year two under Jonathan Gannon and Petzing, the runway is clear for offensive success. But they are going to need Harrison to deliver to get there. 

He will.

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