Is Cade Otton an Elite TE?
Cade Otton has been a high-level producer over the past month. Since week 5, Otton has averaged 15.7 PPG, which ranks fourth in points per game. This correlates clearly with the injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
For example, in the past four weeks, Otton has 10, 11, 10, and 7 targets. The fact his volume is up is clear. The question is whether this is a new normal for Otton.
While Godwin is out for the season, Mike Evans is expected to return. Otton has dominated one of the weakest wide receiver corps in the league, which should get stronger with Evans returning and making Otton's target competition stronger.
In the past four weeks, Otton has been targeted on 23% of his routes. This is a jump from 15% in the first six weeks of the season. In fact, his first six weeks were clearly in line with his 2023 production when he was targeted on 13% of his routes.
The past four weeks have also seen an increase in his production when targeted, jumping to 7.7 yards per target from his career average of 6.5. In other words, Otton has benefited from a bigger role and rewarded his team.
Another way to gauge Otton's season is to grade more specific film grades. To this end, Otton has a 54.7 PFF grade in his career, which is a 31st-percentile performance. His grade this season is 62.2, and he is 19th among PFF qualifiers.
Verdict: This all points to the conclusion that Otton was dealt a tough hand with Tampa Bay's receiver injuries, which he has stepped up for. Yet this jump has left Otton in the good to very good range of the position, instead of the elites. At a flat position, players that jump in price tend to be sell candidates, especially if he is getting top 6 valuations as he has been in some marketplaces.
Travis Kelce Is Back
Over the past four weeks, Travis Kelce ranked second in points per game at the tight end position, with 18.8 points per game. Kelce leads the league in receptions (36) and fourth in receiving yards (271).
Kelce got off to a very slow start this season but has turned his season around beginning in week 4. In the first three weeks, Kelce averaged 0.72 yards per route run. From weeks 4 through 10, Kelce has 2.09 yards per route run. This is in line with his production over the past three years.
Interestingly, this came right at the time that Rashee Rice suffered an injury that will cost him the season.
The absence of Rice has allowed Kelce to capitalize on his role as Mahomes's most trusted chain mover in the offense. While the team traded for DeAndre Hopkins, the rest of the offense has failed to live up to preseason expectations. Free agent acquisition Marquise Brown is injured and expected to miss the season, while first-round pick Xavier Worthy is underperforming expectations.
Verdict: Mahomes-Kelce is a historically great tandem, and they have rounded into form over the past month after a disappointing start. The disappointing start is likely to anchor some fantasy GMs to the opinion that Kelce is declining, which creates a buying opportunity, especially for contenders in dynasty formats.
