After three weeks, it is important to consider what is real and what is not sustainable for fantasy production.

Jared Goff’s Down Production

After finishing as QB16 in points per game in 2023, Jared Goff is QB26 in points scored through three weeks. Goff is averaging 241 passing yards per game, down from 269.1 yards per game in 2023. Goff’s production is down 6.8 yards per attempt from 7.6 yards per attempt in 2023. 

This production is down, despite the fact his attempts in 2024 (35.3 per game) are nearly the same as 2023 (35.6 per game). 

The main decrease in production for Goff are his touchdown numbers.  On the season, Goff has only three touchdowns with four interceptions.  Notably, Goff has an expectation of 6.3 touchdowns based on his game situation to date, so his touchdown production should positively regress in as the season goes along. 

A bigger concern is Goff’s volume. So far on the season, Detroit is extremely run-heavy and has thrown 8% less than expected by the game situation. In 2023, that was only 4% under his expectation. 

This has not shown up in his volume, as Detroit is averaging a league-high 70.7 plays per game, up from the 66.9 plays per game he averaged in 2023. 

Verdict: Overall, Goff’s production is likely to decrease in passing volume but should see an improvement in touchdown luck.  To recreate his production from 2023, Goff will need substantially better production as a passer for the remainder of the season, otherwise he risks low-end QB2 production. 

Jonathan Taylor Is a Potential Star

Jonathan Taylor is currently RB11 with 17.6 points per game.  Taylor’s job is among the better roles in the league.  He ranks fifth in snap share (76%) and third at the running back position in share of the team’s rushing attempts (70%).  There was some concern about his production from week 2 when Taylor’s route participation dropped, but his season-long route participation of 61% ranks 10th and is among the workhorse running backs at the position. 

Taylor ranks fifth in the league in carries of 10 or more yards (8), one behind the league leaders with 9.  Among qualifiers at the position, Taylor ranks fifth in rushing yards over expectation per attempt (1.2). 

Taylor’s role and performance to date are the type that could create top-5 overall production.  But the problem is the volume Indianapolis’s offense. 

Indianapolis ranks 32nd in plays per game (50), 10.3 plays per game below the league median. It is an extreme outlier in play volume, with the next-lowest team averaging only 54.3 plays per game. 

Indianapolis may not be a highly efficient play-volume team, but there is reason to believe this play volume is an extreme outlier that needs correction. On the season, Indianapolis is 10% under passing frequency expectation based on the game script, so Taylor’s opportunity for high volume should be good when the play volume improves. 

Verdict: Taylor is secured in one of the league’s best workloads and should have high level RB1 production if Indianapolis’s play volume stabilizes.